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Lecture 10 Project Communication & Risk MGT

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Lecture 10 Project Communication & Risk MGT

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© © All Rights Reserved
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PROJECT COMMUNICATIONS

MANAGEMENT

1
What is SW project communications management?
A subset of project management that
includes the processes required to ensure
timely and appropriate generation,
collection, distribution, storage, and
ultimate disposition of project information.

2
Importance of Good Communications
 The greatest threat to many projects is a failure to
communicate
 Our culture does not portray SW professionals as
being good communicators
 Research shows that SW professionals must be
able to communicate effectively to succeed in
their positions
 Strong verbal skill is a key factor in career 3
Project Communications Management Processes
1. Communications planning: determining the
information and communication needs of the
stakeholders

2. Information distribution: making needed information available in a


timely manner

3. Performance reporting: collecting and disseminating


performance information

4. Administrative closure: generating, gathering, and


4
disseminating information to formalize phase or project
Communications Planning
 Every project should include some type of
communications management plan, a document
that guides project communications
 Creating a stakeholder analysis for project
communications also aids in communications
planning

5
Communications Management Plan Contents
 A description of a collection and filing structure for
gathering and storing various types of information
 A distribution structure describing what information
goes to
whom, when, and how
 A format for communicating key project information
 A project schedule for producing the information
6

continued

 Accessmethods for obtaining the


information
A method for updating the communications
management plans as the project
progresses and develops
A stakeholder communications analysis

7
Sample Stakeholder Analysis for Project Communications
Stakeholders Document Name Document Contact Person Due
Format
Customer Monthly Status Hard copy Gail Feldman, First of month
Management Report Tony Silva
Customer Monthly Status Hard copy Julie Grant, First of month
Business Staff Report
Jeff Martin
Customer Monthly Status E-mail Evan Dodge, First of month
Technical Staff Report
Nancy Michaels
Internal Monthly Status Hard copy Bob Thomson First of month
Management Report
Internal Monthly Status Intranet Angie Liu First of month
Business and Report
Technical Staff

Training Training Plan Hard Copy Jonathan Kraus 11/1/1999


Subcontractor
Software Software E-mail Barbara Gates 6/1/2000
Subcontractor Implementation
Plan 8
Information Distribution

 Getting the right information to the right people at


the right time and in a useful format is just as
important as developing the information in the
first place
 Important considerations include
 using technology to enhance information
distribution
9
 formal and informal methods for distributing
THE IMPACT OF THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE
ON COMMUNICATIONS
CHANNELS

10
Performance Reporting
 Performance reporting keeps stakeholders
informed
how aboutare being used to achieve project
resources
objectives.
 For example

 Status reports describe where the project

stands at a specific point in time


 Progress reports describe what the project

team has accomplished during a certain


period of time
 Project forecasting predicts future project status

and progress based on past information and 1


1
Administrative Closure
 It is concerned with generating, gathering, and
disseminating information to formalize phase or
project completion
 A project or phase of a project requires closure
 Administrative closure produces
 Project archives

 Formal
Lessonsacceptance 1
2
Conflict Can Be Good
 Conflict often produces important results, such as
new ideas, better alternatives, and motivation to
work harder and more collaboratively
 Groupthink can develop if there are no conflicting
viewpoints
 Research by Karen Jehn suggests that task-related
conflict often improves team performance, but
emotional conflict often depresses team performance
13
Conflict Handling Modes, in Preference Order
1. Confrontation or problem-solving: directly face a conflict

2. Compromise: use a give-and-take approach

3. Smoothing: de-emphasize areas of differences and


emphasize areas of agreement

4. Forcing: the win-lose approach

5. Withdrawal: retreat or withdraw from an actual or potential


disagreement
14
Running Effective Meetings
 Define the purpose and intended outcome
of the meeting
 Determine who should attend the meeting

 Provide an agenda to participants before

the meeting
 Prepare handouts, visual aids, and make

logistical arrangements ahead of time


 Run the meeting professionally

 Build relationships 15
DEVELOPING A COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

 A communications infrastructure is a set of tools, techniques, and


principles that provide a foundation for the effective transfer of
information
 Tools include e-mail, project management software, groupware, fax
machines, telephones, teleconferencing systems, document
management systems, and word processors
 Techniques include reporting guidelines and templates, meeting
ground rules and procedures, decision-making processes, problem-
solving approaches, and conflict resolution and negotiation
techniques
16

 Principles include using open dialog and an agreed upon work ethics
Using E-Mail Effectively
 Make sure that e-mail is an appropriate medium for what
you want to communicate
 Be sure to send the e-mail to the right people
 Use meaningful subjects
 Limit the content to one main subject, and be as clear and
concise as possible
 Limit the number and size of attachments
 Delete e-mail you don’t need, and don’t open it if you
question the source
 Make sure your anti-virus software is up to date
 Respond to and file e-mails quickly
 Learn how to use important features 17
Using Templates for Project Communications
 Many technical people are afraid to ask for help
 Providing examples and templates for project
communications saves
time and money
 Organizations can develop their own templates, use some
provided
by outside organizations, or use samples from textbooks
 Recall that research shows that companies that excel in
project
18

management make effective use of templates


Using Software to Assist in Project
Communications
 There are many software tools to aid in
project communications
 Today more than 37 percent of people
telecommute or work remotely at least part-
time
 Project management software includes new
capabilities to enhance virtual communications 19
What is Risk?
 A dictionary definition of risk is “the possibility of loss
or injury”
 “A risk is a combination of constraint and uncertainty”
by Larry Krantz
 Project risk management involves understanding
potential problems that might occur on the project
and how they might impede project success
 Risk management is like a form of insurance;
21
it is an investment
Project Management Maturity by Industry
Group and Knowledge Area

22
Risk Utility

 Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of satisfaction or


pleasure received from a potential payoff
 Utility rises at a decreasing rate for a person who is risk-
averse
 Those who are risk-seeking/taking have a higher
tolerance for
risk and their satisfaction increases when more payoff is
at stake
 The risk neutral approach achieves a balance between
risk and
23
Risk Utility Function and Risk
Preference

24
WHAT IS PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT?

 Risk management is the systematic process


of identifying, analyzing, and responding to
project risk.
 It includes maximizing the probability and
consequences of positive events and
minimizing the probability and consequences
of adverse events to project objectives.
25
Project risk management
processes
The goal of project risk management is to minimize
potential risks while maximizing potential opportunities.
Major processes
include
1. Risk management planning: deciding how to approach
and plan the risk management activities for the
project
2. Risk identification: determining which risks are
likely to affect a project and documenting their
characteristics
3. Qualitative risk analysis: characterizing and 26
…processes
4. Quantitative risk analysis: measuring
the probability and consequences of
risks
5. Risk response planning: taking steps to
enhance opportunities and reduce threats to
meeting project objectives
6. Risk monitoring and control: monitoring
known risks, identifying new risks,
reducing risks, and evaluating the 27
Risk Management Planning

 The main output of risk management planning


is a risk management plan
 The project team should review project
documents and understand the organization’s
and the sponsor’s approach to risk
 The level of detail will vary with the needs of
the project
28
Questions Addressed in a Risk Management Plan

 Why is it important to take/not take this risk in relation to the


project objectives?
 What is the specific risk, and what are the risk mitigation
deliverables?
 How is the risk going to be mitigated? (What risk mitigation approach
is to be used?)
 Who are the individuals responsible for implementing the risk
management plan?
 When will the milestones associated with the mitigation approach
occur?
 How much is required in terms of resources to mitigate risk?
29
Contingency and Fallback Plans,
Contingency Reserves

 Contingency plans are predefined actions that the


project
team will take if an identified risk event occurs
 Fallback plans are developed for risks that have high
impact
on meeting project objectives
 Contingency reserve or allowances are provisions held
by the project sponsor that can be used to mitigate
cost or schedule risk if changes in scope or quality 30
Risk Identification
 Risk identification is the process of understanding what
potential unsatisfactory outcomes are associated with a
particular project
 Several risk identification tools and techniques include
 Brainstorming
Interviewing – group
Read more on
discussion
these tools and
 Delphi technique – panel of techniques
experts
 SWOT analysis

31
Risk identification
Potential Risk Conditions Associated With Each
Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area Risk Conditions
Integration Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration
management; lack of post-project review
Scope Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition
of quality requirements; inadequate scope control
Time Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocation
and management of float; early release of competitive products
Cost Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or
contingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc.
Quality Poor attitude toward quality; substandard
design/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assurance
program
Human Resources Poor conflict management; poor project organization and
definition of responsibilities; absence of leadership
Communications Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultation
with key stakeholders
Risk Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurance
management
Procurement Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations 33
Qualitative Risk Analysis
 Assess the likelihood and impact of identified
risks to

determine their magnitude and priority

 Risk quantification tools and techniques


include

 Probability/Impact matrixes

 The Top 10 Risk Item Tracking technique 34


Sample Probability/Impact Matrix for
Qualitative Risk Assessment

35
Chart Showing High, Medium, and Low-Risk
Technologies

36
Top 10 Risk Item Tracking

 Top 10 Risk Item Tracking is a tool for maintaining an

awareness of risk throughout the life of a project

 Establish a periodic review of the top 10 project risk


items

 List the current ranking, previous ranking, number of

times the risk appears on the list over a period of

time, and a summary of progress made in resolving 37


Example of Top 10 Risk Item Tracking
Monthly Ranking
Risk Item This Last Number Risk Resolution
Month Month of Months Progress

Inadequate 1 2 4 Working on revising the


planning entire project plan
Poor definition 2 3 3 Holding meetings with
of scope project customer and
sponsor to clarify
scope
Absence of 3 1 2 Just assigned a new
leadership project manager to lead
the project after old
one quit

Poor cost 4 4 3 Revising cost estimates


estimates
Poor time 5 5 3 Revising schedule
38
estimates estimates
Expert Judgment

 Many organizations rely on the intuitive


feelings and past experience of experts to
help identify potential project risks
 Experts can categorize risks as high, medium,
or low with or without more sophisticated
techniques
39
Quantitative Risk Analysis
 Often follows qualitative risk analysis, but both can
be done together or separately
 Large, complex projects involving leading edge
technologies often require extensive quantitative
risk analysis
 Main techniques include
 Decision tree analysis
 Simulation
40
Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value
(EMV)

 A decision tree is a diagramming method used


to help you select the best course of action in
situations in which future outcomes are
uncertain
 EMV is a type of decision tree where you
calculate the expected monetary value of a
decision based on its risk event probability and 41
Example
 Project X has a 60% Probability of success with an
impact of Birr 50,000 and has a 40% chance of failure
with an impact of Birr- 20,000. What is the Expected
Monetary Value of this Project?

EMV of success = Birr 50,000 * 60% = Birr

30,000 EMV of failure = Birr -20,000 * 40%

= Birr -8,000 Total EMV = Birr 22,000

In all cases, a positive EMV indicates that it is an


opportunity while a negative EMV indicates a Risk/Threat.
Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Example

43
Simulation
 Simulation uses a representation or model of a system
to
analyze the expected behavior or performance of the
system
 Monte Carlo analysis simulates a model’s outcome
many time to provide a statistical distribution of the
calculated results
 To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have
three estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and
44

optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of the


Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for
Project Schedule

45
Sample Monte Carlo Simulations Results
for Project Costs

46
Risk Response Planning
 After identifying and quantifying risk, you must decide how to respond to
them
 Four main strategies:
 Risk avoidance: eliminating a specific threat or risk, usually by
eliminating its causes
 Risk mitigation: reducing the impact of a risk event by reducing the
probability of
its occurrence
 Risk transference: shifting the consequence of a risk and
responsibility for its management to a third party
 Risk acceptance: accepting the consequences should a risk occur
47
GENERAL RISK MITIGATION STRATEGIES FOR
TECHNICAL, COST, AND SCHEDULE RISKS

48
Risk Monitoring and Control
 Monitoring risks involves knowing their status
 Controlling risks involves carrying out the risk management
plans as risks occur
 Workarounds are unplanned responses to risk events that
must be done when there are no contingency plans
 The main outputs of risk monitoring and control are
corrective action, project change requests, and updates to
other plans
49
Risk Response Control
 Risk response control involves executing the risk
management processes and the risk management
plan to respond to risk events
 Risks must be monitored based on defined
milestones and decisions made regarding risks and
mitigation strategies
 Sometimes workarounds or unplanned responses to risk
events are needed when there are no contingency
50

plans
Thank You!

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