STA108

Chapter 4:
Introduction to Probability

Amiruddin Ab Aziz
 Learning Outcomes
By the end of this topic, students will be able to
1.Define the basic concepts in probability
2.Apply the probability rules in some example
3.Explain and apply the Bayes theorem
 CONTENTS
 Introduction
 Counting Rules
 Multiplication Rule
 Representation of Sample
Space
 Bayes Theorem
 Introduction
• Experiment – well defined, repeatable process where outcomes are determined by chance.
• Outcome – the result of a trial of a probability experiment.
• Sample Space, S – the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Example Experiment : Rolling a dice once
Sample Space : S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Event – subset of sample space, or any single outcome
• Elementary or Simple event – single outcome in sample space
• Compund event – more than one outcome.
• Sampling with replacement – Each time a sample is selected, it will be returned into the
population before the next selection is made.
• Sampling without replacement – each selected unit will not be returned to the populatio
Example 4.1, Page 100
Experiment: A medical researcher lists the possible sex, M or F,
of each of the
first three babies born in an animal laboratory, by order of birth.
S={MMM, MMF, MFM, FMM, MFF, FFM, FMF,
a) List the sample space of the experiment
FFF}
A={FFF}
b) List ⟹Simple
the event A if A beevent
the event of obtaining three females.

B={MMF,
c) List MFM,
the event B if BFMM, MMM}the event
represents ⟹Compound
of obtaining at least
event
two male.
 VENN DIAGRAM

A A’ A B

Complement of A (A’) Intersection of events A and B(A⋂B)

Outcome of event A does not occur Outcomes where both event A and B occur.

A B A B

Unions of events A and B(A⋃B) Mutually exclusive

Outcomes of either event A or B or both Event A and B have no outcomes in
common
Example 4.4 Page 103
A health product consists of three type of ingredients namely, P, Q and R. A defective
product can be due to the contamination in one, two or three ingredients. Out of 210
defective products, it was found that 125 was due to the contamination of P, 85 due
to Q and 100 due to R. From the defective products it was found that 60 has exactly
two contaminated ingredients, of which 24 was contaminated in P and Q only; and
16 was contaminated in P and R only.
a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent the above data.
b) Find the number of defective products that are due to the contamination of all the
three ingredients.
Find the number of defective products that contain exactly one ingredient that is
contaminated.
P Q
a 24 b
d
16 20

R
 Basic concepts of probability
Let A be any event defined over sample space, S; then the probability of event A is

A A’ A B A B

𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ′ ) =1 𝑛 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 ) =0
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 ) =
𝑛 ( 𝑆)
• If , events A and B are independent events. The occurrence of one of
Basic concepts of probability

them is unaffected by the occurrence or non occurrence of the other

event.
• Addition rule (union of events)

 If events A and B are mutually exclusive,

 If events A and B are independent,

Example 4.6 Page 106
Given that A and B are two events with , and . Find
a) c)
A B B
A
0.4 0.2 0.15
OR

b)

A B
 Counting Rules
The M-N rule – In a sequence of events in which the first one has
probabilities, and the second event has and the third has , and so forth,
the total number of possibilities of the sequence will be

Note: In this case and means to multiply

Example 4.7, Page 107

Amanda is going to furnish her house by ordering 5 chairs, 4 tables, 2
cabinets and 3 beds. In how many ways can he make the order?
Event 1: number of ways to arrange chairs = 5
Event 2: number of ways to arrange table = 4
Event 3: number of ways to arrange cabinet = 2 Number of order =
Event 4: number of ways to arrange beds = 3
Example : A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the number of
outcomes for the sequence of events.
Event 1: coin tossed = {head or tail} = 2
Event 2: die is rolled = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = 6

1
Number of outcomes = 2
3
head 4
5
Event 2: 6
Event 1:
Coin tossed Die rolled 1
2
tail 3
4
5
6
Note: When determining the number of different possibilities of a sequence
of events, one must know whether repetitions are permissible.

Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in a four-digit ID card.

How many different cards are possible if repetitions are permitted.

ID CARD

5 5 5 5
Example: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in a four-digit ID card.
How many different cards are possible if repetitions are not permitted.

ID CARD

5 4 3 2
 Permutation Rule
– The number of arrangements of different objects in a specific order
(order is important) using objects at a time without repetition. The

formula is nPr = . Example : FORTE (all letters are different)

– The number of arrangements of objects (not all objects are different) in

a specific order without repetition is given by = .
Example: LENOVO, the letter O appeared twice.
Example 4.13, Page 141: In how many ways can five vacant places on a
bookshelf be filled if eight different books are available?

Example 4.14, Page 141: How many ways can the alphabets in the word
MISSISSIPPI be arranged?
Example 4.15, Page 141: How many ways can the alphabet in the word
STATISTICS can be arranged if
a) The first letter must be A
The word ‘STATISTICS’ has 10 letters, excluded A, it has 9 letters

b) S can be seated together

The letter S is group together, hence considered as 1.
So, the letters are T, A, T, I, T, I, C, (SSS), which are 8 letters.

c) S cannot be seated together

 Combination Rule
The number of possible outcomes of a single experiment in which
– sampling is done without replacement
– the order in which outcomes occur is unimportant (For example, AE and
EA is the same).
The number of combinations of objects selected from objects is denoted
by

Cr =
n
Example 4.16, Page 111

There are 12 students who are eligible to attend a meeting. Find the
number of ways a delegation of 4 students can be selected from the 12
eligible students.
12 ❑
number of delegations= 𝐶 =495
❑ 4
Example 4.17, Page 111
A committee of eight be formed from 12 men and eight ladies if
a) No restrictions
20 ❑
¿ ❑𝐶 8 =125970
b) five men and three ladies are chosen
12 ❑ 8 ❑

c) At least six ladies are chosen

¿ 𝐶 × 𝐶 =44352
❑ 5 ❑ 3

Selecting at least 6 ladies can be : 6 ladies and 2 men, or 7 ladies

and a man, or 8 ladies and no men. Therefore, the solution is

d) Mrs Amira and Mrs Sakinah must be chosen in the committee

If Mrs Amira and Mrs Sakinah must be choosen, it means that there 6
space left in the committee, with 12 men and 6 ladies. The number of
possible combination is
 Multiplication Rule
Multiplication Rule
– can be used to find probability of two events that occur in sequence (both
occurs).
• Independent Events: When two events A and B are independent events, the
probability both occurring is
• Conditional probability is the probability that event A will occur, once event B
has occurred (dependent events), denoted by .

• When two events A and B are dependent events, the probability both occurring
is
or .
• If events A and B are mutually exclusive events, .
• If events A and B are independent events, or .
Example 4.19, Page 113

A and B are two events with , and , find

a)
b)

A
11 5
41212 B
Example

Given that , and , find

a)

b)
Example

Given that , and , calculate

i. iii.

ii.
M
¿ 0.3
0.20.40.1
N
Representation of Sample Space
• Tree diagram is a simple way of representing a sequence of events.
• It is a pictorial representation used to determine all possible outcomes
of probability experiment.
Example 4.20, Page 114
A bag contains of five red balls and three blue balls. Three balls are drawn
one by one
1st
a) with replacement. 2nd 3rd
What is the outcome of at least two blue balls will be
R RRR Outcomes for at least two blue
selected.
R B RRB balls
R B R RBR = {RBB, BRB, BBR, BBB}
B RBB
R BRR
R B BRB
B B R BBR
B BBB
Example 4.20, Page 114

A bag contains of five red balls and three blue balls. Three balls are drawn
one by one

b) without replacement. What is the outcome of getting the first ball blue
and the third ball red will be selected.
1st 2nd 3rd
R RRR Outcomes for the first ball
R B RRB blue and the third ball red
R B R RBR
B RBB = {BRR, BBR}
R BRR
R B BRB
B B R BBR
B BBB
Example 4.22, Page 116

65% of the students go to college by their own transport, 20% by bus and the
remaining students walk to college. 2% of the students with own transport
will be late for college and 4% of those who take busses to college will be
late. Only 1% of those walking to college will be late. Draw a suitable Tree
Diagram.
Late (0.02)
Own On time (0.98)
0.65 Transport
Late (0.04)
0.2 Bus On time (0.96)
What is the probability of students will
be late for college
Late (0.01)
0.15 Walk On time (0.99)
 Contingency or Cross-Tabulation Table

Summarized a group by means of distinct categories according to the

respective characteristics.

Example 4.23, Page 116

XYZ Company has recently conducted a survey of its new microcomputer on

200 selected purchasers with 80 female purchasers, to obtain a gender and
age profile of their customers. Out of 200, 60 purchasers are males and
under 30 years old; 50 purchasers are over 45 years old and 10 of them are
females. Total of 30 females is between to 30-45 years old. Present the above
data in suitable table.
Example 4.24, Page 117

The management of a computer shop recorded the sales of 250 units of

computers in a month. Of those 250 units sold, 180 belonged to Pentium II
model, of which 30 units were sold with 17 inches monitor. 25 units of
Pentium I model were sold with 17 inches monitors. The rest of the units
were sold with 15 inches monitors.
¿ 195 Find the number of units sold,
a) with a 15 inches monitor. ¿ 25
b) with a Pentium I and a 17 inches monitor.
Monitor
Compute Total
r model 17 15
inches inches
Pentium
I 25 45 70

Pentium
II 30 150 180

Total 55 195 250

 Bayes Theorem
• The Bayes’ theorem is designed to modify probability assessment on the basis of
additional experimental or sample information.
• Bayes’ theorem is a result that allows new information to be used to update
conditional probability of an event.
• If we know the conditional probability , we can use the Bayes’ theorem to find out
the reverse probabilities

P  A | Bi  P  Bi 
P  Bi | A   , i 1, 2,..., k
P  A | Bi 
P  A  B  P  B | A  P  A 
P A | B  
P B  P B 
Example 4.25, Page 118

Test used to diagnose medical conditions are often imperfect, and give false positive
or false negative results. A fairly cheap blood test for Human Immunodeficiency
Virus (HIV) that caused AIDS has the following characteristics: the false negative
rate is 2% and the false positive rate is 0.5%. It is assumed that around 0.04% of
Canadian males are infected with HIV. Find the probability that if a male tests
positive for HIV, he actually has HIV

A = {person has HIV (positive HIV)}

B = {blood test is positive}
B (0.98) 𝑃 ( 𝐵| 𝐴 )
0.0004 A B’ (0.02)𝑃 ( 𝐵′| 𝐴 )

B (0.005)𝑃 ( 𝐵| 𝐴′ )
0.9996 A’ B’ (0.995)𝑃 ( 𝐵′| 𝐴 ′ )
Example 4.26, Page 119
An English class consists of 10 male and 20 female students. Five of the male
students and two of the female are non-bumiputera. A student is randomly selected.
Find the probability of selecting
a) a non-bumiputera
7 student
𝑃 ( 𝑁𝐵 )=
30

b) a male
𝑃 ( 𝑀|student,
𝑁𝐵 )= given that
𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∩ 𝑁𝐵 ) 5the
=
/30 student
=
5 is non-bumiputera. Race

Non- Tota
Sex
𝑃 (𝑁𝐵) 7 /30 7
Bumipute bumipute l
c) either a male or a non-bumiputera student. ra ra
M 5 5 10
F 18 2 20
Tota
l 23 7 30

2
 Example 4.28, Page 121

To improve the quality of its parts output from rate of 2% defective, a client firm has
invested in a testing machine. This testing machine is only able to reject some of the
defective output and allows some defective to pass up to standard. The probability
of the output being rejected when it is not defective is 0.01 and the probability of
not being rejected when it is defective is 0.003
A = {defective output}
B={Output is rejected}
) Draw a tree diagram that represents the b) What is the probability of a part being
situation defective and not being rejected
B (0.997)
c) What is the probability that a randomly
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵 ′ )=0.02× 0.003=0.00006
0.02 A B’ (0.003)
P(B)=0.0297
chosen part is rejected or defective
B (0.01)
A’ B’ (0.99)
0.98 = 0.02 + 0.0297 0.01994 =
d) What is the probability that a part is
0.02976
defective given it is rejected
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵) 0.01994
𝑃 ( 𝐴| 𝐵 )= = =0.0 67
Example 4.29, Page 122

50 students were asked to whom they would go for help if they have problems with
their studies.
Male Female
Ask lecturer 8 10
Ask friends 13 15
Ask no one 4 0

M = {male student} b) If a female student is selected, what is

F={Female student} the probability that she prefers to see
A={Ask lecturer} her lecturer whenever she has
B={Ask friends} problems with her study.
C={Ask
a) no one}is selected at random, find the
If a student
10

probability that the student is a male and he

𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐹 ) 50
|
𝑃 ( 𝐴 𝐹 )= =

prefer to ask his friend for help.

𝑃(𝐹 ) 10 +1
50
13
𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∩ 𝐵)=
50