ENGINEERING DATA

ANALYSIS:

Probability Concepts
and It’s Applications
 Probability Concepts and Application

 Sample Space, Relationships

Among Events and Rules of
Probability

 Counting Rules Useful in

Probability

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 Probability Concepts and Application

Probability is used to describe the phenomenon of

chance or randomness of events to occur. It does
not deal with guarantees, but with the likelihood of
What is
an occurrence of an event. If we understand how to
Probability?
calculate probabilities, we can make thoughtful
decisions about random and unpredictable
situations where multiple outcomes are possible.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 OPINION
POLLS

SUBJECTIVE JUDGEMENT
PROBABILITY OF EXPERT
TYPES OF
PROBABILITY
DELPHI
OBJECTIVE METHODS
PROBABILITY

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 Probability Formula:

Where:
P(E) – Experiments: refers a situation involving chance or
probability that produces an event.
n(S) – Sample space: refers to set of all possible outcomes
of an experiment, that is, any subset of the sample space.
n(E) – Event: refers to one or more of the possible outcomes
of a single trial of an experiment. When one event occurs, it is
simple event. When two or more events occur in a sequence, it is
compound event.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 EXAMPLE NO. 1: A manufacturer inspects 50 computer monitors
and finds that 45 have no defects. What is the probability that a
monitor chose at random has no defects?
SOLUTION:

Probability of choosing w/ no defects

P(E) = 45
50
P(E) = 0.9* 100

P(E) = 90%

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 Probability Concepts and Application
Basic Properties of Probabilities
Property 1: The probability, P, of any event or state of nature occurring lies
between greater than or equal to 0 or 0% and less than or equal to 1 or 100%.
(even chances) That is:
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

• Property 2: The probability of an event will not be less than 0 because it is not
possible (impossible) or can never occur. That is:
P (Ф) = 0

• Property 3: The probability of an event will not be more than 1 because

1 is certain that something will happen (sure event). That is
P (S) = 1
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
 Basic Properties of Probabilities

Everyone is
Go Back getting 100% Baby boy is Snow in Sun will
In time in a test being born winter rise
tomorrow
1 1 3
0 1
4 2 4

0 0.25 or 25% 0.5 or 50% 0.75 or 75% 1 or 100%

Impossible Unlikely to happen Even Chances Likely Certain

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 EXAMPLE NO. 2: Compute for the following items and place them on the
probability scale.
a. What is the chance of picking a number between 1 - 8?
b. What is the chance of picking a number that is even?
SOLUTION
a.) Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8}
Event: 8 (because any number may be pick)

Probability of picking a number between 1 – 8

8
P(E) = =1
8

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 SOLUTION
b.) Sample space: {1,2,3,4,5,6, 7, 8}
Thus, the number of possible outcomes = 8

Event: {2, 4, 6, 8}
= 4 (because an even number is obtained)

Probability of picking a number that is even

4
P(E) = = 0.5 or 50%
8

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 EXAMPLE NO. 3: What is the probability of obtaining an even number
when a die is rolled?

SOLUTION
Sample space:

Event:

Probability of obtaining an even number when a dies is

rolled:
3
P(E) = = 0.5 or 50%
6

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 EXAMPLE NO. 4: Miriam randomly chooses 2 items for the child she is
babysitting from a toy bin that contains 12 toys, 8 stuffed animals, and 3 board
games. What is the probability that she chose 2 stuffed animals as the first two
choices?
SOLUTION
Let A be the event of choosing the first stuffed animals, thus, 𝑃(𝐴) =

Let B be the event of choosing the second stuffed animal, thus, 𝑃(𝐵) =

The two events are dependent.

𝑃(𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑡𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑑
𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑙)

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 RULES OF PROBABILITY

NO
Is it possible for the events DEPENDENT
to happen in any order? EVENT

YES
Does one event in any way NO
INDEPENDENT
affect the outcome (or the
EVENT
odds) of the other event?
YES

DEPENDENT EVENT

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 PROBABILITY RULES
Classical method:
a) Assume all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.
b) Equally likely outcomes means each outcome has the same probability of occurring.
c) Formula for classical method:

P(E)= number of outcomes that E can occur N (E)

=
number of all possible outcomes in sample space N (S)

Ex: A pair of fair dice is rolled.

a) compute the probability of rolling a seven.
b) compute the probability of rolling a two.
c) comment on the likelihood of rolling a seven versus rolling a two.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications TUP - MANILA
EXAMPLE:
A pair of fair dice is rolled.
a)compute the probability of rolling a seven.
b)compute the probability of rolling a two.
c)comment on the likelihood of rolling a seven versus rolling a two.

Key: we need to count all the possible

outcomes in the sample space and 1, 1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1
count the number of outcomes 1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2
the event can occur. 1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4
In rolling a pair fair dice, there are 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6
36 equally likely outcomes shown:

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications TUP - MANILA
 Answer :
a) The event E=“rolling a seven”={(1,6), (2,5), 1, 1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)} has 6 outcomes. So
1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2
N(S)=36, and N(E), and
P(E)=N(E)/N(S)=6/36=1/6≈0.167 1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
b) The event E=“rolling a two”={(1,1)} has one
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4
outcome, and P(E)=N(E)/N(S)=1/36≈0.028
c) Because P(roll a seven)=6/36=1/6 and 1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5

p(roll a two)=1/36, rolling a seven is six times as 1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6
likely as rolling a two. In other words, in 36 rolls
of the dice, we expect to observe about 6 sevens
and only 1 two.
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications TUP - MANILA
 Tree diagram: is a device consisting of line segments beginning a starting
point and also from the outcome point.

Ex: find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has 3 children.
Using B for boy and G for girl.
B BBB
3rd The sample space is:
B G
B 2nd kid BBG
BBB,BBG,BGB,
B BGB
kid BGG,GBB,GBG,
G 3rd
1st G G G B and G G G .
kid BGG
kid B
2nd
B
G 3rd
GBB
G GBG
kid
kid
G B
3rd GGB
10
kid
GGG
G
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications TUP - MANILA
 ADDITION RULE AND COMPLEMENTS
We think about the two events when a single fair die is rolled:
First situation: getting an odd number and getting an even number.
( This is definitely impossible to occur, it will occur either odd number or even, but
will never occur both at the same time)
Second situation: getting a number of 4 and get a even number. (this could
happen at the same time)

Disjoint events(mutually exclusive events):

Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same
time( i.e., they have no outcomes in common).
- addition rule for mutual exclusive events:

P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications TUP - MANILA
 If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:
• They have no outcomes in common.
• They can’t occur at the same time.
• The outcome of the random experiment can not belong to both A
and B.

A B

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 EXAMPLE:

A day of the week is selected at random, find the probability that is a

weekend day.

Answer: we know only Saturday and Sunday are weekend days.

We define the event A=Saturday; the event B=Sunday

The event A and B is mutually exclusive events, because they cannot occur at
the same time, you cannot say today is Saturday and Sunday. So, the
probability that is a weekend day is:

P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)=1/7+1/7=2/7
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
 EXAMPLE:

A single card is drawn from a deck, find the probability it is a king or a

queen.

Answer: we define the event A=getting a king, B=getting a queen.

P(A)=4/52 P(B)=4/52
SO, P( A or B) = 4/52 + 4/52
= 8/52
= 2/13
Note: if events A,B,C,D,… are mutually exclusive events, then we have the
formula:
P(A or B or C or D or…) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) + P(D) +…

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 ADDITION RULE AND COMPLEMENTS
General addition rule ( For any two events) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
If two events are mutually exclusive, then P(A and B) =0
EXAMPLE:
In a hospital, there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses and 3 physicians are
females. If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse
or a male.
staff male female total
Answer: P(nurse or male)==? nurse 1 7 8
first to figure out sample space shown: physician 2 3 5
SOLUTION: Total=13
P(nurse or male) = p(nurse) + p(male) - P(nurse and
male) = 8/13 + 3/13 - 1/13
= 10/13
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications Total=13
 EXAMPLE:
The probability of getting a number 4 or getting an even number for rolling a die.

Answer: define the event

A= getting a number 4
B=getting an even number
P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)
=1/6 + 3/6 - 1/6
=1/2
Note: for any three events, we will have the formula:
P(A or B or C)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A and B) - P(A and C) -
P(B and C)

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
 INDEPENDENCE AND THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
Independent Events & Dependent Events
If event A occurs does not affect the probability of event B occurring, the two
events are independent events.
If event A occurs affect the probability of event B occurring, the two events are
dependent events.

Ex: 1) First tossing a coin, and then tossing another coin, whether the second
results will not be affected by the first results.
independent events
Independent events vs. disjoint events:
Disjoint events means if one event occurred, then another would not occur.
Independent events means one event occurs does not affect the probability of
another event occurs.
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
 Formula for independent events:
If event A and B are independent, then : P(A and B)=P(A)*P(B)

EXAMPLE:
A card is drawn from a regular deck and then put it back; a second card is
drawn. Find the probability of getting a queen and then an ace.

answer: the event A “getting a queen in the first time” and the event B “
getting an ace in the second time” are independent events.
SOLUTION: P(A) = 4/52 AND P(B) = 4/52
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)
= (4/52)*(4/52)
= 16/2704
= 1/169
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
 General Multiplication Rule:
The probability that two events A and B both occur is :
P( A and B)=P(A)*P(B│A)
in fact, it is another form of conditional probability.

Ex: A person owns a collection of 30 CDs, of which 5 are country music. If 2CDs
are selected at random, find the probability that both are country music.
Ans: we define the event A as the first selected country CD, and B as the
second selected country CD.

P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B|A)

= (5/30)*(4/29)
= 20/870
= 2/87
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications
 Not
e:
If event A and B are independent events, then we have:
a) P( A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A)=P(B)

b) P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)

If event A, B,C,D,…are independent events, then we have:

P( A and B and C and D…)
=P(A)*P(B)*P(C)*P(D)…

NOTE: P(B|A) = event B given event A

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 SEATWORK NO. 2
Determine whether the events are mutually exclusive or not mutually
exclusive then find the probability. Express your answer in fraction. Show
the complete solution. (4 items x 10 points)

1. A pet store has the following animals: 6 puppies, 9 kittens, 4 gerbils,

and 7 parakeets. If a pet is chosen at random, what is the probability
of choosing a puppy or a parakeet?

2. In a box having 4 bulbs, the probability of having ne defected bulb is

0.5 and the probability of having no bulb defected is 0.4. Find the
probability of having one defected bulb or zero defected bulb.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

 SEATWORK NO. 2
3. The table below includes all of the programs offered at a sports
complex and the number of participants aged 14-16. What is the
probability that a player is 14 or plays basketball?

Age Soccer Baseball Basketball

14 28 36 42
15 30 26 33
16 35 41 29

4. In selecting a number at random from integers 1 to 20, what is the

probability of getting an even number or a number divisible by 3.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: Probability Concepts and It’s Applications

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION
 COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

How is probability
related to permutation
and combinations?

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Counting methods for

computing probabilities With n different objects taken r
at a time, where r is a subset of n

Permutation With n object taken all at a time

Combination
where some items consist of look-
(Order doesn’t (Order
alike/duplicates and rest are all
matter) matters) different

With r objects can be With n different objects taken all

selected from a set of n at a time
objects

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Permutations vs. Combinations
• Both are ways to count the possibilities
• The difference between them is whether order matters or not
• Consider a poker hand:
– A♦, 5♥, 7♣, 10♠, K♠
• Is that the same hand as:
– K♠, 10♠, 7♣, 5♥, A♦
• Does the order the cards are handed out matter?
– If yes, then we are dealing with permutations
– If no, then we are dealing with combinations

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Permutation is a counting technique which refers to the arrangement (or
ordering) of a set of objects, from first to last, where the order in which the objects
are selected does matter. In a permutation n different objects taken r at a time
(where r is a subset of n), an event cannot repeat.

- Make use of Permutation include WORD Formation.

- Choosing the OFFICERS for a school club.

EXAMPLE:

- The arrangement AB and BA are two distinct or specific permutation.

- Set containing two elements {A, B}, taken 2 at time has two arrangements
AB and BA

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 The number of ways to
arrange the letters ABC:

Number of choices for first blank? 3 ___ ___

Number of choices for second blank? 3 2 ___
Number of choices for third blank? 3 2 1

3*2*1 = 6 3! = 3*2*1 = 6

ABC ACB BAC BCA CAB CBA

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Permutation of n Distinct Object
PERMUTATION FORMULA: Taken r at a time

P(n,r) =

PERMUTATION FORMULA: Taken n at a time

P(n,r) = n!

Where:
n is the number of objects to choose from
r is the number of objects selected

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

EXAMPLE NO. 1 : In how many ways can you arrange 8 books on a shelf if
a.) only 5 books can fit at a time?
b.) all the 8 books can fit at a time?

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

EXAMPLE NO. 1 : In how many ways can you arrange 8 books on a shelf if
a.) only 5 books can fit at a time?
b.) all the 8 books can fit at a time?
SOLUTION:
a.) since there are 8 books in all: n = 8. The
books are to be arranged on a shelf at a
time, r = 5
Formula is:
8!
8 5
8 -5
8!
8 5
3!
8*7*6*5*4*3!
8 5
3!

8 5 6,720 ways

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

EXAMPLE NO. 1 : In how many ways can you arrange 8 books on a shelf if
a.) only 5 books can fit at a time?
b.) all the 8 books can fit at a time?
SOLUTION:
a.) since there are 8 books in all: n = 8. The b.) since all of the 8 books will be arranged
books are to be arranged on a shelf at a on a shelf;
time, r = 5 Formula is:
Formula is:
8! P(n,r) = n!
8 5
8 -5 8 P 8 = 8!
8!
8 P 8 = 40, 320 ways
8 5
3!
8*7*6*5*4*3!
8 5
3!

8 5 6,720 ways

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

EXAMPLE NO. 2 : How many four-letter word can be formed using the letter of the
WOMAN?

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

EXAMPLE NO. 2 : How many four-letter word can be formed using the letter of the
WOMAN?

SOLUTION:
There are 5 letters in a word WOMAN and only four letter can be used at once,
therefore n = 5, r = 4
Formula is:

5*4*3*2*1
8 5
5!
5 4 120 ways
5-4 8 5

5!
5 4
1!

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 3 : How many 3 letter words with or without meaning can be formed
out of the letters of the word SWING when repetition of letters is not allowed?

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 3 : How many 3 letter words with or without meaning can be formed
out of the letters of the word SWING when repetition of letters is not allowed?
SOLUTION:
Here n = 5, as the word SWING has 5 letters. Since we have to frame 3 letter words with
or without meaning and without repetition, therefore total permutations possible are:

n=5 Formula is: 5!

r= 3
2!

5x4x3x2x1

5! 2x1
5-3
60

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 4 : The number of ways 3rd and 4th position can be awarded to 10
members is given by:

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 4 : The number of ways 3rd and 4th position can be awarded to 10
members is given by:

SOULUTION: Formula is:

n = 10
r=2

10 !
10 - 2

10!

8!
90

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 5: There are 12 puppies for sale at the local pet shop. Four are
brown, four are black, three are spotted, and one is white. What is the probability
that all the brown puppies will be sold first?

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 5: There are 12 puppies for sale at the local pet shop. Four are
brown, four are black, three are spotted, and one is white. What is the probability
that all the brown puppies will be sold first?

SOULUTION: Formula is:

n = 12
r=4

12 !
12 - 4

12!

8!
11,880

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 5 : There are four brown puppies that can be sold first. Thus, to
find the number of ways to get the 4 brown puppies in their specific positions, the
events are described as follows:

Therefore, the probability would be 24 divided by the permutation representing the 11,880 possible orderings.
24
0.00202
11,880 or 0.202%

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Circular Permutation
If n object are arranged in a circle, then there are a total of:

= (n – 1)!

EXAMPLE : In how many ways can you sit 8 people in around table with 8 seats?

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Circular Permutation
If n object are arranged in a circle, then there are a total of:

= (n – 1)!

EXAMPLE : In how many ways can you sit 8 people in around table with 8 seats?

= (n – 1)!
= (8 – 1)!

= 7!
= 7*6**5*4*3*2*1
= 5,040 ways

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 SEATWORK NO. 2

PROBLEM NO. 1: There are 4 routes from La Union to Quezon City and 12 routes from
Quezon City to Makati City. How many different routes can be taken if Aaron needs to
travel from La Union to Makati City?
PROBLEM NO. 2: How many permutations of four-letter words are there in there in the
words HONESTY?
PROBLEM NO. 3: How many permutations can be made from the word KAPUR-
PURAWAN?
PROBLEM NO. 4: Nickole wants to make a bracelet out of beads as a Mother’s Day gift
for her mother. If there are 10 beads of different colors, in how many ways can they be
joined

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Combination is a selection of objects from a collection in any order as oppose to
permutations which deal with the ordered arrangements of objects.

• In a combination in which r objects can be selected from a set of n objects, the

selection rules are:

• the order of selection does not matter (the same objects selected in
different orders are regarded as the same combination);
• each object can be selected only once; this implies that you are not
allowed any repeat numbers.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 Combination FORMULA:

Where:
n is the size of the full set
r is the number of selected set
(n-r) is the number of set that was left

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 EXAMPLE NO. 6: A high school is planning to put on a “A Chorus Line” musical.
There are 20 singers auditioning for the musical. The director is looking for two
singers who could sing a good duet. What is the probability that Kevin and
Phoebe are the two singers who are selected by the director
SOULUTION:
This question involves a combination because the order of the two students
selected does not matter.

Determine n and r:

n = 20; since there are 20 singers auditioning for the musical

r = 2; 2 singers will be chosen among 20 singer

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION

 SOULUTION:

= 190

The probability of one of the selections (Kevin and Phoebe) would be 1 divided
by the combination.

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS: PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION