Chapter-2 Capm Model and Risk-1
Chapter-2 Capm Model and Risk-1
A N D
TY P E S O F
R I S K A N D
R E T U R N
MEANING OF RISK, RISK-
R E T U R N T R A D E - O F F,
CAPM AND VALUATION
Few questions of
investors
• Will it be safe to make investments in
securities of other companies?
• What is the maximum benefits that one
can drive from these investments?
• What types of securities are more
beneficial, debt or equity?
• Which type of security one should buy?
• What are the growth trends followed by
these securities? Whether they always do
grow, or decline sometimes?
INTRODUCTION
(ii) Single
(i) Book Vs. period Vs.
Market Return Multi period
Return
(iii) Ex-ante
(expected) Vs. (iv) Security
Ex post Vs. Portfolio
(Realized) Return
Return
Book Vs. Market Return
Book return is the return calculated from the
books of the company using profits and assets.
Normally, the return on assets (ROA) is taken as
the indicator of book return. Several other return
calculations can also be made using other
variables like capital employed, net worth, capital
invested, earnings per share and dividends per
share. In all these cases, these returns reflect
historical performance. Whereas, market return is
based on the market values of the assets.
Single period Vs. Multi period Return
Return is always computed with reference to a particular period. If an
investment of Rs.100 earns an income of Rs.3 over a three month period,
the rate of return is 3 per cent. If another investment earns an income of
Rs.3 over a 12-month period, then also the return is 3 per cent. But the
measures appear to be illogical, unless they are related to a specific time
period. Normally, rates of return are computed on an annual basis.
People risk
Arises when people do not follow the organization’s procedures,
practices and/or rules. That is, they deviate from their expected
behavior.
Legal risk
Arises when parties are not lawfully competent to enter an agreement
among themselves. Furthermore, this relates to the regulatory-risk,
where a transaction could conflict with a government policy or
particular legislation (law) might be amended in the future with
retrospective effect.
Political risk
occurs due to changes in government policies. Such changes may have
an unfavorable impact on an investor.
MEASURES OF RISK
Since risk is variability in the expectations, there are many
statistical tools that can be employed to measure risk. The
following are the usual statistical techniques that are relied upon.
1. Sensitivity Analysis
2. Probability Distribution
3. Standard Deviation (SD)
4. Coefficient of Variation (CV)
5. Skewness (Sk)
The risk associated with a security
from both a behavioral and a
quantitative/statistical point of
view.
Different techniques are available
to measure these different risks.
The behavioral view of risk can be
measured by using sensitivity
analysis and probability
distribution.
The statistical measures of risk of a
security are standard deviation and
Sensitivity Analysis
It is a behavioral approach to assess risk by
considering a number of possible return
estimates so that a sense of variability among
outcomes can be measured.
In order to have a sense of variability among
return estimates, a possible approach is to
estimate.
The greater range indicates the more variability
of the asset.
Probability distribution
Coefficient
of variation CV= σr/Re Where CV= Coefficient of variation σr =
Standard deviation of return
CAPM
traded in the market. required by equity
shareholders)
The CAPM consists of two elements: The Capital Market Line (CML) and the Security
Market Line (SML). The Capital Market Line (CML)- It represents the risk return
relationships for efficient portfolios.
It depicts the risk return relationships for efficient portfolio available to investors.
It also shows that the appropriate measure of risk for an efficient portfolio is the
standard deviation of return on the portfolio.
The Security Market Line (SML)- It is a graphic depiction of CAPM and describes the
relationship between expected return and systematic risk in capital markets.
The risk averse investors seek risk premium to assume the risk embedded in risky
assets. Systematic risk which is unavoidable is the contribution of an individual
asset to the risk of market portfolio. According to the capital market theory, the
market compensates or rewards for systematic risk only as unsystematic risk can be
eliminated by diversification. The level of systematic risk in an asset is measured by
the beta coefficient β. The CAPM links beta to the level of required return.
Where E(ri)= expected or required
rate of return on asset i rf= risk
Expected return= risk free free rate of return, vertical axis
return+ (Beta*Risk premium of intercept β= Systematic risk of the
market) E(ri)= rf+ β(E(rm)-rf) asset, beta E(rm)= expected
return on market portfolio. E(rm)-
rf= Risk premium of market
Risk-Return relationship(elements required
to apply CAPM model)
3. Perfect competition
1. The investors have 2. The investors are
prevails in the market
homogenous risk averse and utility
and there is no
expectations. maximisers.
transaction cost.
The APT theory does
not assume