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CH 9 Day 4

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16 views

CH 9 Day 4

Uploaded by

裴非
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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CHAPTER 9 DAY 4

Warm - Up

 Harley Davidson motorcycles make up 14% of


all motorcycles registered in the U.S. You plan
to interview an SRS of 500 motorcycle owners.
 What is the approximate distribution of your
sample that own Harleys? Standard deviation?
 Why can you “do this”? (use Rules of Thumb)
 How likely is your sample to contain 20% or
more who own Harleys?
 How likely is your sample to contain at least
15% who own Harleys?
Mean and Standard Deviation
of a Sample Mean
 Suppose that
x is the mean of an
SRS of size n drawn from a large
population with mean μ and standard
deviation σ. Then the mean
x of the
sampling distribution of is μ and
its standard deviation is σ/√n
x
 The behavior of in repeated samples
is much like that of the sample proportion
 The sample meanx is an unbiased estimator
of the population mean μ.
 The values ofx are less spread out for larger
samples. Their standard deviation decreases at
the rate √n, so you must take a samples 4
x
times as large to cut the standard deviation of
in half.
 You should only use the recipe for standard
deviation when the population is at least 10
times as large as the sample.
Example

 The height of young women varies


approximately according to the
N(64.5,2.5) distribution. If we choose
an SRS of 10 young women, find the
mean and standard deviation of the
sample.
Central Limit Theorem

 Draw an SRS of size n from any


population whatsoever with mean μ
and finite standard deviation σ.
When n is large, the sampling
x
distribution of the sample mean is
close to the normal distribution
N(μ,σ/√n) with mean μ and standard
deviation σ/√n
 In other words, as sample size
increases the distribution becomes
Example

 A company that owns a fleet of cars


for its sales force has found that the
service lifetime of disc brake pads
varies form car to car according to a
normal distribution with mean μ=
55,000 and standard deviation σ =
4500 miles. The company installs a
new brand of brake pads on 8 cars.
 If the new brand has the same lifetime
distribution as the previous type, what is the
distribution of the sample mean lifetime for the
8 cars?

 The average life of the pads on these 8 cars


x be
turns out to = 51,800 miles. What is the
probability that the sample mean lifetime is
51,800 miles or less if the lifetime distribution
is unchanged? The company takes this
probability as evidence that the average
lifetime of the new brand of pads is less than
55,000 miles.
Remember the Law of Large
Numbers?
 Draw observations at random from
any population with finite mean μ. As
the number of observations drawn x
increases, the mean of the
observed values gets closer and
closer to μ.

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