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16 views

Presentation 2

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mithilafarjanaria032
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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A SURVEY OF PROBABILITY CONCEPT

• Presented by • Presented to
• Mithila Farjana Ria • Md Abdullah Al Mamun
(21FNB032) Lecturer
• Md. Roman Sheikh Department of Finance &
(21FNB031) Banking
• Jakia (21FNB028)
• Khadija Akter Urmi
(21FNB029)
• Samir Hosen Shaon
PROBABILITY
• The possibility to happen any event or occurrence which is
expressed in 0 to 1.
The probability can be expressed in scale-

Formula: p
EXPERIMENT
• An experiment is the observation of some activities or the act
of taking some measurements.
Example: Throwing a die. Tossing a coin.
OUTCOME
• A particular result of an experiment.
Example: If we throw a die, we get 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. Individually,
1 is an outcome, 2 is an outcome and so on.

Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Example:
S= {Head, Tail}
EVENT
• The subset of sample space containing the favorable
outcomes of an experiment.
Example: The outcomes of even numbers in a six-sided die.
A={2,4,6}
PRESENTATION 0N
A SURVEY OF PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
WHAT IS PROBABILITY
APPROACHES TO ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
RULES OF ADDITION FOR COMPUTING PROBABILITIES
RULES OF MULTIPLICATION TO CALCULATE PROBABILITIES
CONTINGENCY TABLES
TREE DIAGRAMS
BAYES” THEOREM
PRINCIPLES OF COUNTING
WHAT IS PROBALITY

APPROACHESA TO THE ASSAIGNING PROBABILITIES?

defination: Assaign probabilities using a classical ,empirical,or subjective


approach.
CLASSICAL PROABABILITY: Classical probability is based on the
assumption that the outcomes of an experiment are eqaliy likely.
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY:
EXAMPLE: Consider an experiment of rolling a six sided die.What is
probability of the event an even number of spots appear face up?
• SOLUTION: There are three favorable outcomes and six possible possibles outcomes.
• Probability of an event number =
• =.5
• MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE : The occurrence of one event means that none of the other events
can occur at the same time .
• COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSTIVE: At least one of the events must occer when an experiment
is conducted.

• LAW OF LARGE NUMBER:over a large number of trials ,the empirical probability of or


event will approach its true probability.
LAW OF LARGE NUMBER

Numbers of Number of head Relative frequency of


trails heads
1 0 .00
10 3 .30
50 26 .52
100 52 .52
500 236 .472
10,00 494 .494
10,000 5027 .5027
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY

• DEFINATION:The probability of an event happening is the fraction of the time


similar events happened in the past.
• Empirical probability=
• EXAMPLE : On February 1,2023,the space suttle Columbia exploded .this was
the second disaster in 113 space mission for NASA .on the basic of this
information what is the probability that a future missions successfully
completed.
• Probability of a successful fight=
• =.98
RULES OR LAWS OF PROBABILITY

• There are three rules which are used while solving probability
problem.
1. Additional Rule
2. Complement Rule
3Multiplication Rule

ADDITIONAL RULE
• The rules of addition refer to the probability that any of two pr
more events can occur.
• SPECIAL RULE
ADDITIONAL RULE
Special rule General rule
(For mutually exclusive (For non mutually
events) exclusive events)

Special Rule
Formula : P(A or B) = P(A) +
P(B)
Example:
If event A is rolling
CONTINGENCY TABLE

• A contingency table ( also known as a cross tabulation or


crosstab) is a type of table in statistics that displays the
frequency distribution of the variables. It’s used to analyze
the relationship two or more categorical variables.
EXAMPLE:

CONTINGENCY TABLE ( GENDER VS. PREFERENCE):


Prefers Does not Total
product prefer
Male 30 10 40

Female 25 15 40

Total 55 25 80

1. This 2*2 tables show how many males and females prefer or so not prefer
product.
2. The total at the bottom shows the sum of preferences across gender.
TREE DIAGRAM

A tree diagram is a graphical representation used to display all


the possible outcomes or combinations of events in a
hierarchical, branching structure.
• In probability theory, a three diagram may be used to represent a
sample space.
HOW TO MAKE A TREE DIAGRAM

• Formula of drawing a tree diagram = N^n


• N = Outcome
• n = How many trials

Example :
Two coin:
Flipping a two coin, if we wanted, we could list all the possible outcomes or sample space
N= 2(H,T)
N=2(two coin)
N^n= 2^2
=4

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