Scribd
Upload
12 views

STAT4 Probability and Counting Rules

Its about statistics.

Uploaded by

Carlos Bonganay
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
12 views

STAT4 Probability and Counting Rules

Its about statistics.

Uploaded by

Carlos Bonganay
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 44

Probability and Counting

Rules
STAT4 – Statistics with Computer
Application
Counting Rules
The Fundamental Counting
Rule
The fundamental counting rule

in 𝑚 ways and a second


states that if one event can occur

independent event can occur in 𝑛

can occur in 𝑚×𝑛 ways.


ways, the two events together
For instance, if you are choosing
an outfit and have 4 shirts and 3
pairs of pants, you have:
𝟒 ×𝟑=𝟏𝟐 𝒑𝒐𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒇𝒊𝒕𝒔
Fundamental Counting Rule

When to use it: When you are


performing several actions or
experiments, and the number of
ways each can occur is
independent of the others.
Suppose you are creating a password that
consists of 3 letters followed by 2 digits. How
many different passwords are possible if repetition
Solution:
is allowed?
•There are 26 possible letters (A-Z) for each of the 3
letter positions.
•There are 10 possible digits (0-9) for each of the 2-
digit positions

Using the fundamental counting rule, the total number


of possible passwords is:
Factorial Notation

Factorial notation, written as 𝑛!,

positive integers up to 𝑛.
represents the product of all

When to use it: When you're


arranging all items in a set, and
How many ways can 5 different books
be arranged on a shelf?

Solution:
•Since we are arranging all 5 books, the
number of possible arrangements is:
Permutations
A permutation is used when you are selecting and
arranging a subset of items from a larger set, and
order matters.
When to use it: When you're selecting a subset of
items and the order in which they are selected or
arranged is important.

Where, is the total number of items, is the


number of items you are selecting or arranging.
How many ways can 3 people be chosen
from a group of 5 to fill the positions of
president, vice president, and secretary
(where
Solution:the order matters)?
•Here, we are selecting 3 people out of 5 and
arranging them in specific roles (order
matters), so we use permutations:

There are 60 ways to assign these positions.


Combinations
A combination is used when you are selecting a
subset of items from a larger set, and order does
not matter.
When to use it: When you're selecting a subset of
items, and the order of selection doesn’t matter.

Where, is the total number of items, is the


number of items you are selecting or arranging.
How many ways can 3 people be
selected from a group of 5 to form a
committee (where order doesn’t
matter)?
Solution:
•Since the order in which the people are
selected doesn’t matter, we use
combinations:

There are 10 ways to select 3 people from a


group of 5 for the committee.
In a class of 15 students, the teacher
wants to choose 4 students to represent
the class in a competition. How many
different groups of 4 students can be
chosen?
How many ways can you choose 3 cards
from a standard deck of 52 cards?
A team of 5 students is to be selected
from a class of 20 students. How many
different teams can be formed?
A student council consists of 12
students. How many ways can a
president, vice president, and secretary
be selected?
Probability
Basic Concept

Probability is a measure of how


likely an event is to occur,
ranging from 0 to 1. A probability
of 0 means the event will not
happen, while a probability of 1
means it is certain to happen.
Sample Spaces and
Probability
A sample space is the set of all
possible outcomes of an
experiment. If you're
conducting an experiment like
flipping a coin, the sample
space is {Heads, Tails}. If
Classical Probability
Classical probability assumes all
outcomes are equally likely. For
example, when rolling a fair die,
each face (1 through 6) has an
equal
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
chance of
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 landing
𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 face
𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 up.
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆
Probability of an Event

𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔


𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆
Example:
Probability of getting a 4
upon rolling a die.
𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑹𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒂 𝟒 )= 𝒐𝒓 𝟎 . 𝟏𝟕 𝒐𝒓 𝟏𝟕 %
𝟔
Example:
Probability of drawing hearts
in a deck of card.
𝟏𝟑
𝑷 ( 𝑫𝒓𝒂𝒘𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒔 ) = 𝒐𝒓 𝟎 . 𝟐𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟓 %
𝟓𝟐
Example:
If you're drawing one card from
a standard deck, the probability
of getting a King is:
𝟒 𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝑲𝒊𝒏𝒈 )= 𝒐𝒓 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟕𝟔𝟗 𝒐𝒓 𝟕 . 𝟔𝟗 %
𝟓𝟐 𝟏𝟑
Empirical Probability
Empirical probability is based on
actual data or observations. For
example, if you flip a coin 100
times and it lands on heads 58
𝟓𝟖
times,
𝑷 ( 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒅𝒔 the empirical
)=
𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝒐𝒓 𝟎 probability
. 𝟓𝟖 𝒐𝒓 𝟓𝟖 % of
heads is: with classical probability, which would
This contrasts
assume a 0.5 chance for heads.
Subjective probability
Subjective probability is based on
personal judgment, intuition, or
belief rather than on exact
calculations or data. It can vary
from person to person.
Examples
A teacher estimates that 80% of
her students will pass the exam
based on previous years'
performance. What is her
subjective probability for
passing?
Examples
A sports analyst believes there is
a 40% chance that a certain
team will win a championship.
What is the subjective probability
assigned to that event?
Theorems on Prabability
Empirical probability is based on
actual data or observations. For
example, if you flip a coin 100
times and it lands on heads 58
𝟓𝟖
times,
𝑷 ( 𝑯𝒆𝒂𝒅𝒔 the empirical
)=
𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝒐𝒓 𝟎 probability
. 𝟓𝟖 𝒐𝒓 𝟓𝟖 % of
heads is: with classical probability, which would
This contrasts
assume a 0.5 chance for heads.
Mean (Expected Value)
The mean (or expected value, 𝐸(𝑋)
of a random variable is a measure of
the central tendency, representing
the average outcome if the
experiment is repeated is eachmany
possibletimes.
𝝁=𝑬 ( 𝑿 )=∑ 𝒙 ∙ 𝑷( 𝑿=𝒙 ) the random variable 𝑋.
value of

𝒙 is the probability of
Consider a game where you roll a fair
six-sided die. The possible outcomes (1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6) are equally likely, and the
probability of each outcome is .

So, the expected value (mean) of the roll is 3.5.


1
2
3
4
5
6
Total:

21
𝐸 ( 𝑋 )= 𝑜𝑟 3.5
6
Variance

The variance of a random variable


measures how much the values of the
random variable differ from the mean
(i.e., it shows the spread of the data
around the mean). The larger the
variance, the more spread out the
values are.
Variance Formula

𝝈 =𝑽𝒂𝒓 ( 𝑿 )=∑ ( 𝒙 − 𝝁 ) ∙ 𝑷 ( 𝑿= 𝒙)
𝟐 𝟐

is each value of the random


variable

is the probability of 𝑥.
is the mean
Using the same die-rolling example, we
know the mean is 3.5. Now we calculate
the variance:
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total:

17.5
𝑉𝑎𝑟 ( 𝑋 )= 𝑜𝑟 2.92
6
Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is the square


root of the variance and provides a
measure of the spread of values around
the mean, in the same units as the
original data. It is easier to interpret
than the variance because it is in the
same unit as the random variable.
Standard Deviation Formula

𝝈=√ 𝑽𝒂𝒓 ( 𝑿)

𝝈=√ 𝟐.𝟗𝟐
Example:
A men's soccer team plays soccer zero,
one, or two days a week. The
probability that they play zero days is
0.2, the probability that they play one
day is 0.5, and the probability that they
play two days is 0.3. Find the long-term
average or expected value, μ, of the
number of days per week the men's
0 0.2 0 1.21
1 0.5 0.5
2 0.3 0.6

E ( X )= μ=1.1 σ = √ 0.49=0.7
2
σ = 0.49
Example:
A player has a 60% chance of making a
free throw worth $3. What is the
expected value of one free throw
attempt?

You might also like