Lecture 6 Normal Distributions II

Normal Distributions
The mathematical equation for the normal
distribution is:
 ( X   )2 (2 2 )
e
y
 2
where
e 2.718
 3.14
 population mean
 population standard deviation
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Normal Distribution Properties

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z value (Standard Value)
The z value is the number of standard deviations
that a particular X value is away from the mean.
The formula for finding the z value is:

value  mean
z
standard deviation
X 
z


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Area under the Standard Normal
Distribution Curve
1. To the left of any z value:
Look up the z value in the table and use the
area given.

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Area under the Standard Normal
Distribution Curve
2. To the right of any z value:
Look up the z value and subtract the area
from 1.

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Area under the Standard Normal
Distribution Curve
3. Between two z values:
Look up both z values and subtract the
corresponding areas.

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The Central Limit Theorem

In addition to knowing how individual data values

vary about the mean for a population, statisticians
are interested in knowing how the means of
samples of the same size taken from the same
population vary about the population mean.

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Distribution of Sample Means
 A sampling distribution of sample means is
a distribution obtained by using the means
computed from random samples of a specific
size taken from a population.
 Sampling error is the difference between the
sample measure and the corresponding
population measure due to the fact that the
sample is not a perfect representation of the
population.

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The Central Limit Theorem
 As the sample size n increases, the shape of
the distribution of the sample means taken
with replacement from a population with mean
 and standard deviation  will approach a
normal distribution.
 The mean of the sample means equals the
population mean.  X  .
 The standard deviation of the sample means is
called the standard error of the mean.
 X  n .

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FAQ in Week 9

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FAQ in Week 9

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FAQ in Week 9

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Application Scenario

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Proof (Not required)

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Proof (Not required)

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Central Limit Theorem

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Example: Hours of Television
A. C. Neilsen reported that children between the ages of 2
and 5 watch an average of 25 hours of television per week.
Assume the variable is normally distributed and the
standard deviation is 3 hours. If 20 children between the
ages of 2 and 5 are randomly selected, find the probability
that the mean of the number of hours they watch television
will be greater than 26.3 hours.

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Example 6-13: Hours of Television

Since we are calculating probability for a sample mean, we need

the Central Limit Theorem formula

X  26.3  25
z  1.94
 n 3 20

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Example 6-13: Hours of Television

Since we are calculating probability for a sample mean, we need

the Central Limit Theorem formula

X  26.3  25
z  1.94
 n 3 20
The area is 1.0000 – 0.9738 = 0.0262. The probability of
obtaining a sample mean larger than 26.3 hours is 2.62%.

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Example: Vehicle Age
The average age of a vehicle registered in the United
States is 8 years, or 96 months. Assume the standard
deviation is 16 months. If a random sample of 36 vehicles
is selected, find the probability that the mean of their age is
between 90 and 100 months.

Since the sample is 30 or larger, the normality assumption

is not necessary.

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Example: Vehicle Age

90  96 100  96
z  2.25 z 1.50
16 36 16 36
Table E gives us areas 0.9332 and 0.0122, respectively.
The desired area is 0.9332 – 0.0122 = 0.9210.
The probability of obtaining a sample mean between 90 and 100
months is 92.1%.

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Example: Meat Consumption
The average number of pounds of meat that a person
consumes per year is 218.4 pounds. Assume that the
standard deviation is 25 pounds and the distribution is
approximately normal.
a. Find the probability that a person selected at random
consumes less than 224 pounds per year.

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Example: Meat Consumption

X  224  218.4
z  0.22
 25
The area to the left of z = 0.22 is 0.5871. Hence, the
probability of selecting an individual who consumes less
than 224 pounds of meat per year is 0.5871, or 58.71%.

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Example: Meat Consumption
The average number of pounds of meat that a person
consumes per year is 218.4 pounds. Assume that the
standard deviation is 25 pounds.
b. If a sample of 40 individuals is selected, find the
probability the sample mean will be less than 224
pounds per year.

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Example: Meat Consumption

X  224  218.4
z  1.42
 n 25 40
The area to the left of z = 1.42 is 0.9222. Hence, the
probability that the mean of a sample of 40 individuals is
less than 224 pounds per year is 0.9222, or 92.22%.

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Finite Population Correction Factor
 The formula for standard error of the mean is
accurate when the samples are drawn with
replacement or are drawn without replacement
from a very large or infinite population.
 A correction factor is necessary for computing
the standard error of the mean for samples
drawn without replacement from a finite
population.

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Finite Population Correction Factor
 The correction factor is computed using the
following formula:
N n
N1
where N is the population size and n is the
sample size.
 The standard error of the mean must be
multiplied by the correction factor to adjust it for
large samples taken from a small population.

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Finite Population Correction Factor
 N n

n N1

 The standard error for the mean must be

adjusted when it is included in the formula for
calculating the z values.
X 
 N n

n N1

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The Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

A normal distribution is often used to solve

problems that involve the binomial distribution
since when n is large (say, 100), the calculations
are too difficult to do by hand using the binomial
distribution.

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The Normal Approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
 The normal approximation to the binomial is
appropriate when np > 5 and nq > 5 .
 In addition, a correction for continuity may be
used in the normal approximation to the
binomial.
 The continuity correction means that for any
specific value of X, say 8, the boundaries of X
in the binomial distribution (in this case, 7.5 to
8.5) must be used.

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The Normal Approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
Binomial Normal
When finding: Use:
P(X = a) P(a – 0.5 < X < a + 0.5)
P(X  a) P(X > a – 0.5)
P(X > a) P(X > a + 0.5)
P(X  a) P(X < a + 0.5)
P(X < a) P(X < a – 0.5)
For all cases,  np,   npq , np 5, nq 5
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Example: Reading While Driving
A magazine reported that 6% of American drivers read the
newspaper while driving. If 300 drivers are selected at
random, find the probability that exactly 25 say they read
the newspaper while driving.
Here, p = 0.06, q = 0.94, and n = 300.
Step 1: Check to see whether a normal approximation can
be used.
np = (300)(0.06) = 18 and nq = (300)(0.94) = 282
Since np  5 and nq  5, we can use the normal distribution.
Step 2: Find the mean and standard deviation.
µ = np = (300)(0.06) = 18
  npq  300 0.06 0.94  4.11
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Example: Reading While Driving
Step 3: Write in probability notation. P(X = 25)
Step 4: Rewrite using the continuity correction factor.
P(24.5 < X < 25.5)
Step 5: Find the corresponding z values.
24.5  18 25.5  18
z 1.58, z  1.82
4.11 4.11
Step 6: Find the solution
The area between the two z values is
0.9656 – 0.9429 = 0.0227, or 2.27%.

Hence, the probability that exactly 25 people read the

newspaper while driving is 2.27%. (Exact value is
2.26%)
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Example: Widowed Bowlers
Of the members of a bowling league, 10% are widowed. If
200 bowling league members are selected at random, find
the probability that 10 or more will be widowed.
Here, p = 0.10, q = 0.90, and n = 200.
Step 1: Check to see whether a normal approximation can
be used.
np = (200)(0.10) = 20 and nq = (200)(0.90) = 180
Since np  5 and nq  5, we can use the normal distribution.
Step 2: Find the mean and standard deviation.
µ = np = (200)(0.06) = 20
  npq  200 0.10 0.90  4.24

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Example: Widowed Bowlers
Step 3: Write in probability notation. P(X  10)
Step 4: Rewrite using the continuity correction factor.
P(X > 9.5)
Step 5: Find the corresponding z values.
9.5  20
z  2.48
4.24
Step 6: Find the solution
The area to the right of the z value is
1.0000 – 0.0066 = 0.9934, or 99.34%.

The probability of 10 or more widowed people in a random

sample of 200 bowling league members is 99.34%. (Exact
value is 99.65%)
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Self-Reading Part
The Normal Approximation to the Poisson Distribution

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The Normal Approximation to the Poisson Distribution

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The Normal Approximation to the Poisson Distribution

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