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CMIP-6 Based Climate Projections

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Neithan Mangaring
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18 views

CMIP-6 Based Climate Projections

Uploaded by

Neithan Mangaring
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CMIP6-based Climate

Projections in the
Philippines
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)

DOST-PAGASA Southern Luzon (SLPRSD)

05 August 2024
https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2012/08/16/republic-act-no-10174/
https://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2012/08/16/republic-act-no-10174/
Timeline of Provision of Climate Change-related
Information in the Philippines
Generated Characterizing the
RCP-based
Projections using PRECIS, Philippine Climate
RegCM4, and CCAM in High-resolution
2014–2017 Grids

2023 – 2024
Improved uptake of SSP-Based
climate information
Using the CLIRAM tool Projected
2011 2021 Changes in the
2016–2018 CORDEX-SEA- Philippine Climate
SRES-Based CC
Projections 2018 Derived Extreme
downscaled Indices
using PRECIS

Continuous sharing of future climate projections to LGUs and other end-users


Simple Workflow
Download
Historical Projection
(2021-2050, 2031-2060,

(1981-2010) 2041-2070, 2051-2080,


2061-2090, 2071-2100)

Projected CHANGE
For Rainfall, we apply the multiplicative shift, and
For Temp, we apply the additive shift was used

Interquartile range

25th Percentile 50th Percentile 75th Percentile


Methodology

Interquartile Range
(25th-, 50th-, 75th-
Percentile)
(a) Historical (1981–2010)
ACCESS-CM2
[°C] (b) Projection (2041–2070)
ACCESS-CM2
[°C]

January: 2041-2070 - SSP2-4.5 (median)


(e)

(c) Change: ACCESS-CM2


ACCESS-CM2
[°C] (d) Observed data [°C]

Methodology in
deriving projections
(a) Historical (1981–2010) [mm] (b) Projection (2041–2070) [mm]
January: 2041-2070 - SSP2-4.5 (median)
ACCESS-CM2 ACCESS-CM2

(e) (f) Projection: Median [mm]


[%]

Projection: Median [mm]


(c) Multiplier (% change) [%] (d) Observed data [mm] (g)
ACCESS-CM2
List of all GCMs used to derive climate change projection
CMIP6 – (Coupled Model Intercomparison SSPs (Shared-socio Economic Pathways)
Project Phase 6) Participating Models Participating Models
The SSPs examine how global society,
demographics and economics might change
over the next decades.
Observed trends in annual mean temperature (1991-2020)

*black pixels are


significant at the 95%
confidence level
Observed trends in annual mean temperature (1991-2020)

Trend: 0.02°C/yr

*Increase of about 0.78°C from 1991 to 2020


Countrywide
projection for
Temperature
Countrywide
projection for
Rainfall
Countrywide projection of temperature per SSP scenario
Countrywide projection of
temperature per SSP scenario
2021-2050 - Median - SSP 5-8.5
2031-2060 - Median - SSP 5-8.5
2041-2070 - Median - SSP 5-8.5
2051-2080 - Median - SSP 5-8.5
2061-2090 - Median - SSP 5-8.5
2071-2100 - Median - SSP 5-8.5
Multi-model-multi-scenario Ensemble (Basilan province)

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