2

Analyzing Two-Variable
Data

Lesson 2.5
Regression Lines
Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3rd
Edition
Starnes & Tabor
Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers
 Regression Lines
Learning Targets
After this lesson, you should be able to:

 Make predictions using regression lines, keeping in mind

the dangers of extrapolation.
 Calculate and interpret a residual.
 Interpret the slope and y intercept of a regression line.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 2

 Regression Lines
When the relationship between two quantitative variables is
linear, we can use a regression line to model the
relationship and make predictions.

Regression
Line

A regression line is a line that describes how a response

variable y changes as an explanatory variable x changes.
Regression lines are expressed in the form

where yˆ (pronounced “y hat”) is the predicted value of y

for a given value of x.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 3

 Got height, got hops?
Making predictions
PROBLEM: Do taller people tend to jump higher? Student researchers Haley,
Jeff, and Nathan investigated this question by measuring the height in inches
and standing vertical leap of 74 different students. Here is a scatterplot of the
data, along with the equation of the regression line, , where y = vertical jump
in inches and x = height in inches. Predict the vertical jump of a student who
is 68 inches tall.
35
yˆ  31.20  0.70 x
30
Vertical jump (inches)

25

20

15

10

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78
Height (inches)

If a student is 68 inches tall, substitute x = 68 into the

equation and simplify: .
A student who is 68 inches tall has a predicted vertical
jump of 16.4 inches.
Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 4
 Regression Lines
Can we predict the price of a Ford F-150 with 300,000 miles
driven? We can certainly substitute 300,000 into the equation
of the line. The prediction is
yˆ = 38,257 − 0.1629(300,000) = −$10,613

This prediction is an extrapolation.

Extrapolation

Extrapolation is the use of a regression line for prediction

far outside the interval of x values used to obtain the line.
Such predictions are often not accurate.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 5

 Regression Lines
Even when we are not extrapolating, our predictions are
seldom perfect. For a specific point, the difference between
the actual value of y and the predicted value of y is called a
residual.

Residual

A residual is the difference between an actual value of y

and the value of y predicted by the regression line. That is,
residual actual predicted

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 6

 Regression Lines
The scatterplot shows the residual for the F-150 with 70,583
miles and an actual price of $21,994.

The predicted price is yˆ = 38,257 - 0.1629(70,583) =

$26,759, so the residual is 21,994 - 26,759 = -$4765. The
negative value means that the price of this truck was $4765
less than predicted, based on the number of miles it had been
driven. It also means that the point is below the regression
line on the scatterplot.
Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 Edition
rd
7
 How much candy can you grab?
Calculating and interpreting a residual
PROBLEM: Statistics educator Paul Myers likes to teach concepts by having
students grab Starburst candies from a bowl. Students reach into the bowl and
grab as many candies as they can hold using one hand. One class did this
activity and recorded the number of candies along with their hand span,
measured from the tip of the pinky finger to the tip of the thumb when their
fingers were spread as far apart as possible. Here are the scatterplot and
regression line. The regression equation is , where x = hand span in
centimeters and y = number of candies grabbed.
40

(a)
35

Calculate the residual for the student who

30
Candies

25 had a hand span of 19.5 cm and

who grabbed20

23 candies.
15

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
yˆ  27.90  2.74(19.5) 25.53 candiesTo
Hand span

calculate the residual, first find the

predicted value of y:
residual  y  yˆ 23  25.53  2.53 candies

Next, subtract the predicted value from the actual value:

(b) Interpret the residual from part (a).

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 8
 Regression Lines

In the regression line ŷ = a + bx,

a is the y intercept and
b is the slope.

Slope, y
intercept
The y intercept a is the predicted value of y when x = 0.

The slope b of a regression line describes the predicted

change in the y variable for each one-unit increase in the x
variable.

It is very important to include the word “predicted” (or its

equivalent) in the interpretation of the slope and y intercept.
Otherwise, it may seem that our predictions will be exactly
correct.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 9

 Grabbing more candy?
Interpreting a regression line
PROBLEM: In the previous example about a candy grab, the
equation of the regression line is , where x = hand span in
centimeters and y = number of candies grabbed.
(a) Interpret the slope of the regression line.
The predicted number of candies grabbed increases by
2.74 candies for each additional 1-cm increase in
student hand span.

(b) Does the value of the y intercept have meaning in this

context? If so, interpret the y intercept. If not, explain why.
The y intercept has no meaning because it is not
possible to have a hand span of 0 centimeters.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 10

 LESSON APP Do cut flowers benefit from sugar in the
2.5 water?
Does adding sugar to the water in a vase help flowers stay
fresh? To find out, two statistics students went to a flower shop
and randomly selected 12 carnations.

When they got home, the students prepared 12 identical

vases with exactly the same amount of water in each vase.
They put 1 tablespoon of sugar in 3 vases, 2 tablespoons of
sugar in 3 vases, and 3 tablespoons of sugar in 3 vases. In the
remaining 3 vases, they added no sugar.

After the vases were prepared, the students randomly

assigned 1 carnation to each vase and observed how many
hours each flower continued to look fresh.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 11

 LESSON APP Do cut flowers benefit from sugar in the
2.5 water?
Here is a scatterplot along with the regression line y^ = 180.8
+ 15.8x, where x = amount of sugar (in tablespoons) and y =
hours of freshness.
1. Calculate and interpret the
residual for the flower that
had 2 tablespoons of sugar
and looked fresh for 204
hours.

2. Interpret the slope and y

intercept of the regression
line.

3. Would you be willing to use

the regression line to predict
the hours of freshness for a
flower that received 10
tablespoons of sugar?
Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 12
 LESSON APP Do cut flowers benefit from sugar in the
2.5 water?
1. Calculate and interpret the
residual for the flower that
had 2 tablespoons of sugar
and looked fresh for 204
hours.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 13

 LESSON APP Do cut flowers benefit from sugar in the
2.5Interpret the slope and
2. water?
y intercept of
the regression line.

3. Would you be willing to use the

regression line to predict the hours of
freshness for a flower that received 10
tablespoons of sugar? Explain.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 14

 Regression Lines
Learning Targets
After this lesson, you should be able to:

 Make predictions using regression lines, keeping in mind

the dangers of extrapolation.
 Calculate and interpret a residual.
 Interpret the slope and y intercept of a regression line.

Statistics and Probability with Applications, 3 rd Edition 15