Climate Change

Updated facts, future scenarios and

concerns
 Natural Greenhouse Effect
• The balance between the inflow of solar radiation into the atmosphere
and the re-radiation of heat determines the Earth’s average surface
temperature.
• The average amount of solar energy incident on the atmosphere is
about 342 watts per square meter (W m -2). Approximately 77 W m–2 is
scattered or reflected directly back into space by molecules, microscopic
airborne particles (referred to as aerosols), and clouds in the
atmosphere, (the total effect is referred to as albedo), and another 30 W
m –2 is reflected back by the earth itself.
• Of the remaining 235 W m-2, ~ 168 W m–2 is absorbed by the earth’s
surface and the remainder by the atmosphere.
• To maintain its long-term thermal equilibrium, the earth must reradiate
back to space, on average, the same amount of energy that is absorbed.
• It does so by re-radiating thermal “long-wave” radiation in the infra-red
part of the electromagnetic spectrum.
• According to the theory of black body radiation, the amount of thermal
radiation emitted by a warm surface is dependent on its temperature and
how “absorbing” it is.
• A perfect black body is a perfect absorber (i.e. no reflectance) and a
perfect emitter. If the earth had a perfectly absorbing surface, it would re-
emit thermal radiation (the 235 W m–2 that reaches the earth’s surface) at a
rather low temperature of about minus 190 degrees Celcius (-190 C).
• However, the mean global temperature at the surface of the earth is about
150 C.
• The difference in the theoretical temperature and the observed
temperature can be explained by the natural greenhouse effect which
effectively keeps the earth’s surface about 340 C warmer than it would
otherwise be.
• In fact,
the present life forms depend on this natural greenhouse effect for their existence.
• Most of the atmosphere consists of nitrogen and
oxygen (99% of dry air), which are transparent to
infra-red radiation.
• Therefore, a small amount of radiation leaving the
earth’s surface is transmitted relatively unimpeded
back through the atmosphere.
• However, the bulk of the infra-red radiation is
intercepted and absorbed by atmospheric gases
such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, and other
minor gases like nitrous oxide, ozone and methane
• These gases are referred to as greenhouse gases
(GHGs).
• The GHGs in turn re-emit the infra-red radiation in
all directions.
• The net result is that the atmospheric GHGs act as
a partial blanket that traps some of the thermal
radiation from the surface and makes the earth
substantially warmer than it would normally be –
giving rise to the natural greenhouse effect.
 The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• The Earth’s average global temperature, therefore, is a
function of the radiative balance of incoming solar energy and
out-going infra-red radiation.
• Any changes in the average net radiative balance of radiation
due to variations in the intensity of incoming solar radiation or
out-going infra-red energy, is said to cause “radiative forcing”
of the earth’s atmosphere.
• An increase in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs for
example, and the consequent reduction in the efficiency of
radiative cooling of the earth, will result in positive radiative
forcing.
• This causes the enhanced greenhouse effect.
• Natural climatic variations occur as a result of changes in the forcing of the
climate system, for example as a result of aerosol due to volcanic eruptions.
• Climate variations can also occur without any external forcing as a result of
complex interactions between components of the climate system such as the
ocean and atmosphere.
• The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an example of such an internal
variability.
• The output of energy from the sun also changes by small amounts (~0.1%)
over an 11 year cycle.
• Slow variations in the earth’s orbit over timescales of tens to thousands of
years, have led to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar
energy.
• Such changes have played an important part in climate variations in the
distant past, as during glacial cycles.
• There is therefore a certain degree of natural background “noise” or baseline
conditions against which any anthropogenic signal has to be identified
• Increasing energy use since the Industrial Revolution has led to the rapid
accumulation of GHGs – primarily carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide - above their naturally occurring (historical) levels.
• As emissions continue to increase as a result of continuing use of fossil
fuels, it is expected that the risk of global warming above normal levels
will occur as more heat becomes trapped in the atmosphere.
• However, the extent of such warming will depend on the relationship
between GHG emissions and concentrations, which is determined by the
global carbon cycle.
• Since 1750, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide have risen by about 30%,
100% and 15% respectively, and are continuing to rise.
• The total radiative forcing effect of a GHG depends on
several factors including its concentration, global warming
potential (GWP) and atmospheric lifetime.
• The GWP indicates the cumulative warming effect or
radiative forcing caused by a unit mass of gas from the
moment of release up to some time in the future.
• It is expressed as an index relative to carbon dioxide (which
is given a GWP of 1).
• GWPs must take into account not only the direct radiative
forcing effects of each gas but also the indirect effects such
as the formation of new GHGs as a result of complex
chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
• This effect tends to further warm the lower atmosphere and surface,
which is essentially the anthropogenic enhancement of a phenomenon
that has operated in the earth’s atmosphere for billions of years due to
naturally occurring GHGs.
• The extent of the enhanced warming depends on the size of the
increase in concentrations of GHGs and the radiative properties of the
gases.
• Alternatively, increases in aerosols will have a negative radiative
forcing such as the slight cooling of the earth’s surface during 1992-3,
caused in part by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in mid-1991.
• However, these effects are short-lived.
• Nonetheless, any radiative forcing will tend to alter atmospheric and
oceanic temperatures, weather patterns, and the entire hydrological
cycle
• The Atmospheric carbon dioxide is the key link in the global
carbon cycle between human activities and the naturally
occurring biological and physical processes.
• Analysis of historical carbon dioxide levels and temperature,
estimated form Vostok-ice core data, show a close correlation
between the two for the past several thousand years.
• Carbon is exchanged among the oceans, the terrestrial
biosphere, and the atmosphere, and less quickly with
sediments and rocks, via the global carbon cycle (See Figure
7).
• These complex physicochemical reactions occur at different
rates in the different strata, any disruption in one part may
cause interference in other parts of the cycle.
• Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol
which aims at stabilising atmospheric GHG concentrations at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system within a timeframe
• That would allow ecosytems to adapt naturally to climate change,
to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
• The UNFCCC defines climate change as “ a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods.”
 PRESENT/CURRENT EVIDENCE
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
• United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP)
scientists from around the globe and whose job
is to assess the scientific evidence in respect of
global warming and climate change.
• A broad consensus has emerged among the several
thousand world’s leading experts who have reviewed
current information for the IPCC that there is a discernible
human interference in the climate system.
• There is a concern that the changes in climate would
intensify in the future because of the lag time in the global
atmospheric/climate response system.
• What this means is that if all emission were to stop as we
speak, the earth’s climate would be committed to the
effects of past emissions, and so we are committed to some
rise in temperature with the expected rise in sea level.
• However, in order to detect a human interference “ signal” as
explained above, it has been necessary to
(a) detect whether a particular change in weather patterns is
exceptional in a statistical sense (i.e. significantly different from
baseline or background conditions, and
(b) attribute such a change to human influence. A lot of the
scientific effort has been devoted to trying to separate the signal
from the baseline “noise”.
In any event, it is apparent that anthropogenic contributions to
radiative forcing ( as a result of past GHG emissions up to 1990) are
quite significant compared to natural effects such as variations in
solar output (refer to Figure on radiative forcing of GHGS) .
• The current evidence suggests that the twentieth century is
probably warmer than any other century since 1400 (before which
there were largely unreliable data).
• Within the 20th century, some areas have recorded the warmest
decade-long spells that have occurred in the past millennium.
• Specifically, the earth’s average surface temperature has increased
between 0.3 and 0.6°C over the past 100 years, and by about 0.2 to
0.30 °C since 1950.
• The mean sea level has risen between 10 and 25 cm over the same
period primarily due to the thermal expansion of the oceans (0.2 to
0.7 mm per year), retreat of glaciers (0.2 to 0.4 mm per year), and
other temperature-related causes,
• including possible melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.
• The methods used to detect human interference with the climate
system have been largely based on numerical global climate models
(or Global Circulation Models or GCMs).
• These models have been developed to seek to take into account not
only the heat-trapping effects of GHGs, but also the negative radiative
forcing provided by aerosols, as well as contributions from the ocean-
atmosphere coupling over timescales of decades to centuries.
• Accordingly, these models have been used to simulate the mean global
climate and make comparisons with actual regional measurements.
• The projections made by such models correspond closely to the
observed patterns of temperature changes to strongly suggest that
these temperature changes cannot be caused solely by natural
phenomenon
• . However, it must be borne in mind that, as with all
models, there are inherent uncertainties, such as
the inability to incorporate the variability of solar
radiation and volcanic dust, and that the model
outputs are mere projections as opposed to
predictions.
• Nonetheless, comparisons of the model outputs
with empirical measurements help to establish the
validity of a particular model, and its usefulness in
future projections.
• Within the 20th century, some areas have recorded the
warmest decade-long spells that have occurred in the
past millennium. Specifically, the earth’s average surface
temperature has increased between 0.3 and 0.60 C over
the past 100 years, and by about 0.2 to 0.30 C since 1950
(See Figure 10). The mean sea level has risen between 10
and 25 cm over the same period primarily due to the
thermal expansion of the oceans (0.2 to 0.7 mm per
year), retreat of glaciers (0.2 to 0.4 mm per year), and
other temperature-related causes, including possible
melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.
• Statistical analyses have indicated that the observed
increasing trend in mean global temperature during the past
century cannot be attributed entirely to natural variations.
There have been wide regional climatic variations (such as the
greater warming over middle latitude continental areas
during winter and spring, but more cooling in the North
Atlantic). Precipitation has increased over land areas in the
high northern latitudes. The frequency of ENSO events has
increased since the 1970s, and the sustained 1990-1995
oscillation was never observed before, on the basis of records
going back 100 years. However, there is no clear link to
human activities.
 LIKELY CHANGES IN THE FUTURE GLOBAL
CLIMATE
• TE In order to develop some idea of what the future climate might
look like, based on the discussion above, the IPCC has developed
various future scenarios.
• It is important here to understand that a scenario, much like a
model projection, is not a prediction. A scenario is the cumulation of
the various factors that are likely to exist in a particular future
timeframe and based on past and present trends.
• Accordingly, it is more a probability estimation, but which can
change based on developments such as scientific knowledge,
changes in social attitudes and economic fortunes etc.
• Scenario development was therefore based on the radiative forcing
of likely future emissions of GHGs, since this is the principal cause of
global warming and climate change.
 The IS92 Scenarios
(without Intervention)
• In 1992, the IPCC made a series of projections up
to the year 2100 of emissions of the principal
GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide) and aerosols that would most likely occur if
no measures were taken to curb the emission of
GHGs.
• (See Figure 11). The IS92 curves provide
important baseline for thinking about climate
change, and are based essentially on carbon
dioxide emissions.
• IS92a,b: This scenario assumes a “business as
usual” approach for growth in GHG emissions
(carbon dioxide). It uses moderate
assumptions about global economic growth
(2.3 – 2.9 %), population increase (11.3 billion
people by 2100), and a mix of energy sources.
IS92b assumes the same conditions as IS92a
but with OECD countries committed to
stabilize or reduce emissions.
• IS92e is the highest emission scenario and is based on
rapid economic growth (3.0 – 3.5 % per year), moderate
population growth (11.3 billion people by 2100), high
availability of fossil fuels, and the phasing out of nuclear
fuels. 3.
• IS92c is a scenario in which emissions grow initially but fall
in later years, a reduced economic growth (1.2 – 2 % per
year), a limited increase in global population (6.4 billion by
2100), and severe constraints on fossil fuel use.
• The other scenarios are variations of the extreme
(IS92c,e) and “business as usual” (IS92a) scenarios.
• In the IS92a scenario, carbon levels in the atmosphere reach
above 600 ppmv (more than twice that of pre-industrial times)
while the most optimistic scenario (IS92c) projects atmospheric
carbon dioxide barely beginning to stabilize below 500 ppmv.
• (See Figure 12). Projections from these scenarios indicate that
the major radiative forcing in the future will be from carbon
dioxide.
• Modeling also indicates that concentrations of GHGs with
lifetimes shorter than carbon dioxide respond more quickly to
changes in emissions (relative to carbon dioxide).
• For example, methane emissions affect atmospheric methane
concentrations over a period of 9 to 15 years.
 Increase in Mean Global Temperature
• The modeling assumes three different levels of sensitivity of the
global climate system to radiative forcing (high, medium, and low).
• Thus, a temperature rise of about 4.50 C by 2100 is projected for the
highest emission scenario (IS92e) and high climate sensitivity
• while the best case scenario (IS92a with low climate sensitivity)
projects a temperature rise of about 10 C by 2100.
• The projections also take into account the cooling effects of
aerosols.
• An important feature in the model projections is that in almost all
cases, global temperatures will continue to rise beyond 2100
(toward some long term equilibrium state several hundred years
into the future), due to the inertia and time lags in the climate
system. (See Figure 15).
Global mean Sea Level Rise and Other Effects
After temperature increase
• The rise in global mean sea level is the other major aggregate indicator of
global warming.
• An increase in mean global sea level will be due mainly to the thermal
expansion of sea water, and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
• The global mean sea level has already increased by 10 to 25 cm in the last
century. (See Figures 13 and 14).
• The worst case scenario of a projected sea level rise of 110 cm by 2100
corresponds to the high emissions scenario (IS92e) coupled with a high
sensitivity climate and ice melt level.
• By contrast, the most optimistic result is an increase in mean sea level of only
13 cm by 2100 for the best case scenario (IS92a) coupled with a low climate
and ice melt sensitivity.
• All other combinations of assumptions give results that fall between these two
extremes. The IS92f scenario assumes that world population grows to 17.6
billion by 2100 with economic growth continuing at 2.3-2.9% per annum.
 Stabilization Scenarios (With
Intervention)????
• Stay tuned