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C3 MGMT8360 Estimating Duration

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7 views22 pages

C3 MGMT8360 Estimating Duration

Uploaded by

mfdoom
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Time Management

Estimating Tasks
in MS Project
Week 3 Agenda

 Week 3 Overview of Estimating and


Sequencing
 Estimating and Time Management Process
Groups
 Advanced Estimating Approaches
 Resource Estimating

 Week 3 Estimating Resources MS Project


Time Management
Processes
 Six Processes (in PMI methodology)
1. Define Activities
2. Sequence Activities
3. Estimate Activity Resources
4. Estimate Activity Durations
5. Develop Schedule
6. Control Schedule
 Simple projects: processes 1-5 can be
viewed as a single process
Estimating Activity
Duration Can Be Difficult!
Activity Duration Estimating

Total amount of time for a task, includes:

Work involved

Also, depends
+ on the resource
assigned to the
task
Elapsed time
Estimating Activity Duration

Even though it might take five workdays


to do the actual work 
The duration estimate might be two
weeks to allow extra time needed to
obtain outside information or to allow
for resource availability
Activity Resources
Questions to consider:
 Is the task difficult to perform?
 Has the organization’s done similar
activities before?
 Does the organization have appropriate
people, equipment, and materials available
for performing the work?
 Does the organization need to acquire
more resources to accomplish the work?
Would it make sense to outsource some of
Process: Define Activities

 Identify specific actions needed to


produce the project deliverables

 Work packages (WBS) decomposed into


smaller components called ‘activities’

 Activities = work to complete the work


package
Define Activities

 Use “verb-noun” format & be specific:


 “Testing” is vague
 “Test first round of test cases” is well defined
and specific
 Activities should describe what needs to be
done, not how to do it
 “Start the car” describes the “what”
 “Push the start button” describes the “how”

 More activities … harder to track


Define Activities -
Milestones

 Milestones: significant points or events in the


project

 The project manager should use key milestones


along the life of the project, to help project flow
(spread effort)
 1-year project: every 2 months approx.
 key points in project life cycle
 define dependencies with other projects
Process: Sequence Activities

 Identify & document relationships among project


activities

 Every activity & milestone (except first & last)


connected to at least:
 One predecessor
 One successor
Sequence Activities

Four types of dependencies:


1. Finish to Start (FS): Later task does
not start until the previous task is
finished

2. Finish to Finish (FF): Later task does


not finish until the previous task is
finished

3. Start to Start (SS): Later task does


not start until the previous task
starts

4. Start to Finish (SF): Later task does


not finish before previous task starts
Another classification of
dependencies

 Mandatory or Hard Dependencies


 Contractual
 Inherent in nature of work

 Discretionary Dependencies
 Preferred logic to execute work
 Best practices

 External Dependencies
 Relationships outside project
 Other projects
 Operations
Leads and Lags

The time between the start


dates of the two tasks
can be defined as a lag (2
days in this case). “Why”
example?

If the relationship between


task A and B was Finish to
Start (FS), then the 'lead'
can be illustrated as:
Process: Estimate Activity Resources

 Estimate types and quantities of resources


for each activity
 People | Materials | Equipment | Supplies

 Expert knowledge to estimate should


reside within project team
 If not available, seek Subject Matter Expert
(SME) or consultant
 Organization may have data to help
estimates
Estimate Effort techniques
Three-point estimate
 Most likely estimate
 Pessimistic estimate
 Optimistic estimate
 Estimate = (O + 4 x ML + P) / 6

Example
 Most likely estimate: 8 hours
 Pessimistic estimate: 16 hours
 Optimistic estimate: 6 hours
 Estimate = (6 + 4 x 8+ 16) / 6 = 9 hours
Estimate Effort techniques

 Three-point estimate includes a


contingency in every task

 Two-point estimate = another option


 Conservative estimate (80% or 90% of
confidence)
 Aggressive but achievable
 The cumulative difference is used to carve a
buffer to protect a milestone
Example of Two-Point
Estimate
Activity Conservative Aggressive Difference
Estimate but
Achievable
Estimate
Activity A 24 hours 16 hours 8 hours

Activity B 20 hours 12 hours 8 hours

Activity C 16 hours 12 hours 4 hours

Total effort 60 hours 40 hours 20 hours

Buffer @ 50% 10 hours


of difference
ABA estimate 50 hours
with buffer
Estimating Effort guidelines

 Use SMEs for estimates - make sure that


estimates not based on his/her capabilities

 Use “middle of the road” or average resources


when estimating effort
 Unless resources already known

 Use the 8/80 hour rule to estimate activities:


 No less than 8 hours
 No more than 80 hours (2 weeks)
Process:
Estimate Activity Durations
 Approximating number of work periods needed to
complete each activity
 Duration estimate progressively elaborated
 Durations impacted by resource availability
Process:
Develop Schedule
 Analyze activity sequences, durations, resource
requirements & schedule constraints,
 Scheduling tool (MS Project) creates the schedule
as information is entered - depending on
Scheduling Mode
 ‘Create schedule’ includes review of milestones
& completion dates to assess viability
 make adjustments as needed
Resource Availability
 Organizational level
 Base Calendars
 Project level
 Resource calendars
 Maximum Units per resource
 Activity level
 Units

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