Normal Distribution

and Confidence
Interval
-PG2(91-100)
 1. 91-Mriganka Gupta (Leader)
2. 92-Neha Sinha
3. 93-Nehal Patil
4. 94-Omkar Sawant

Team Members 5.
6.
95-Paarth Jigish Parikh
96-Parag Shrikrushna Joshi
7. 97-Parth Ankit Safi
8. 98-Pratik P Shetty
9. 99-Priyanka Dash
10. 100-Raksha Baid
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
WHAT?

Probability distribution for

describing a continuous
random variable is the normal
probability distribution.

WHERE?
Variety of practical
applications in which the
random variables are heights
and weights of people, test
scores, scientific
measurements, amounts of
rainfall, and other similar
values.
Normal Curve-
Properties
● The normal distribution has two parameters, the mean and
standard deviation. The normal distribution does not have just one
form. Instead, the shape changes based on the parameter values, as
shown in the graphs below.

● The middle point of a normal distribution is the point with the

maximum frequency, which means that it possesses the most
observations of the variable. The midpoint is also the point where
these three measures fall. The measures are usually equal in a
perfectly (normal) distribution.Hence, the Mean,Median and Mode
are Equal
Different Mean, Kurtosis and
Density.
● The mean of the distribution can be any
numerical value: negative, zero, or positive.
Three normal distributions with the same
standard deviation but three different
means (45−, 12, and 55) are shown here.
● It is known as a density curve , it has an
area of 100%.
● Kurtosis( The sharpness of the peak of a
frequency-distribution curve) of a Normal
Distribution is 3 and its skewness is 0.
(Skewness refers to distortion or asymmetry
in a symmetrical bell curve)
Skewness ,Mirror Image & Infinity

● The normal distribution is symmetric, with the

shape of the normal curve to the left of the mean a
mirror image of the shape of the normal curve to
the right of the mean
● The tails of the normal curve extend to infinity in
both directions and theoretically never touch the
horizontal axis. Because it is symmetric, the normal
distribution is not skewed; its skewness measure is
zero.
Standard Deviation decides the
shape
● The standard deviation determines how
flat and wide the normal curve is. Larger
values of the standard deviation result in
wider, flatter curves, showing more
variability in the data.
● Three normal distributions with the
same mean but with different standard
deviations are shown here.
● Cluster around a central value.Some data
sets will fall below, some will fall above-
but mostly around the mean
Area Under the curve (empirical
rule )
● Probabilities for the normal random variable are given by
areas under the normal curve. The total area under the curve
for the normal distribution is 1. Because the distribution is
symmetric, the area under the curve to the left of the mean
is .50 and the area under the curve to the right of the mean
is .50.
● The empirical rule, also referred to as the three-sigma rule or
68-95-99.7 rule, is a statistical rule which states that for a
normal distribution, almost all observed data will fall within
three standard deviations (denoted by σ) of the mean or
average (denoted by µ).
Normal Distribution Curve Example
● Normal distribution is also called as “bell shaped curve”
because it is a symmetrical curve that looks like a bell.

● In the example, the curve represents human height common

measurement.
Rare Rare
● It’s relatively rare to see someone who is super short. So the
Bell shaped curve is relatively low in this part of the graph .

● It is quite common to see someone who is close to the average

Height. So the bell shaped curve is tall in this region.

● It is relatively rare to see someone who is really tall so the bell

shaped curve is again low in this region.
● In this example there are two normal distribution of the
height of male human when born and as adults.

● The average baby height is 20 inches and the average

adult height is 70 inches.

● By looking at the graph, we can tell that there is high

Probability that a newborn will be between 19 and 21
inches tall.

● In contrast, adults are between 60 and 80 inches tall.

● We can see that the curve for babies is way tall compared to the curve for adults.
This is because there are many more possibilities for adult height than for babies.
● The width is curve id defined by the standard deviation.

● By looking at the curve we can tell that the babies have a

relatively small standard deviation compared to adults.

● The standard deviation for babies is 0.6 and the standard

deviation for adults is 4.

● Knowing standard deviation is helpful because normal

Curves are drawn such that 95% of measurement fall
Between +/-2 standard deviation around the mean.

● This means that 95% of the baby measurement fall between 20 +/-1.2 inches.
And 95% of adult fall between 70 +/-8 inches.

● The curve shows that there is high probability of measuring a newborn baby within
+/- 1.2 inches of the mean and there is a low probability of measuring a adult
within +/-1.2 inches of the mean.
 Standard Normal Probability
Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special case of the normal distribution. It is the distribution that
occurs when a normal random variable has a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one.

Standard Score (aka, z-score)

The normal random variable of a standard normal distribution is called a standard score or a z-score.
Every normal random variable X can be transformed into a z score via the following equation:
z = (X - μ) / σ

where X is a normal random variable, μ is the mean of X, and σ is the standard deviation of X.
Question: A survey of daily travel time had these results (in minutes):
26, 33, 65, 28, 34, 55, 25, 44, 50, 36, 26, 37, 43, 62, 35, 38, 45, 32, 28, 34
The Mean is 38.8 minutes, and the Standard Deviation is 11.4 minutes. Convert the values to z-scores.

Solution:
Step 1 - subtract the mean: 26 − 38.8 = −12.8
Step 2 - then divide by the Standard Deviation: −12.8/11.4 = −1.12
So 26 is −1.12 Standard Deviations from the Mean

Similarly,

Original Value Calculation Standard Score

(z-score)

26 (26-38.8) / 11.4 = −1.12

33 (33-38.8) / 11.4 = −0.51

65 (65-38.8) / 11.4 = +2.30

… … …
Cumulative Probability: It refers to the probability that the value of a random variable falls within a specified range.

Question: What is the probability that the coin flips would result in
one or fewer heads if we flip a coin two times?

Solution: It would be the probability of getting zero heads plus the

The table below shows both the probabilities and the
probability of getting one head. cumulative probabilities associated with this experiment.

Thus, the cumulative probability would equal: P(X < 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.25 + 0.50 = 0.75

Standard Normal Distribution Table

A standard normal distribution table shows a cumulative probability associated with a particular z-score. The rows
show the whole number and tenths place of the z-score and the columns show the hundredths place.
For Example – To find the cumulative probability of a z-score equal to -1.31.
 Z-score Table
● A Z-table, also called the standard normal table, is a
mathematical table that allows us to know the
percentage of values below (to the left) a Z-score in a
standard normal distribution (SND)
● The Z-table is a chart of numbers that we use to
identify the area under the normal curve to the left of
a Z-score.
● Using some simple subtraction, you can also find the
area to the right of a Z-score, or the area between Z-
scores with the Z-table.
How to use a Z-table to find the area to the
left of a positive Z-score?
● In this table First row and first column corresponds to Z-
value and all the numbers in the middle corresponds to
area.
● Notice that all the values for Z in the first column are
positive. The Z-table shows areas as 4 digit decimal values
throughout the rows and columns.
● The values inside the Z table are probabilities, so they
must lie between 0% and 100% inclusive.
● For eg. In First row 0.0 and first column .00. When we put
these two values together, and we have a z-score of 0.00.
A Z-score of 0.00 has an area to its left of .5000. This
should make sense, since a Z-score of 0.00 is exactly in the
center of the bell curve, with exactly 50% of the area to its
left.
For eg. Z-score= 1.53 and we need to find the area to its left.

Ans: The area under the normal curve to the left of Z = 1.53 would be graphically represented
like this:
Using the z-table, we will find the area to the left of Z = 1.53.

To find the area to the left of Z = 1.53, first, break up the

number 1.53 into two parts, the first is 1.5, and the second is .03.
1.53 = 1.5 +.03

Then, go to the row with 1.5, and go to the column .03.

The area answer is .9370.

So, 93.70% of area is to the left of Z = 1.53.

 How to Use the Z-Table for Negative Z-
● Scores?
They increase from -3.4 to -0.0.
● A Z-score of -0.00 is the same as a z-score of 0.00.
● Now for e.g.: a Z-score of -0.76, and you need to find the
area to its left.
Ans: The area under the normal curve to the left of Z= -.76 would
be graphically represented like this:
To find the area to the
left of Z = -0.76

-0.76 = -0.7 – .06

Then, go to the row

with -0.7, and go to the
column -.06.
The area answer is .2236.
So, 22.36% of area is to the left of Z = -.76.
 Find the Area to the Right of a Z-
Score
For eg. Z-score= 1.53 and we need to find the area to its Right.

Ans: To find the area to the right, we first find the area to the left of
the z-score, then we subtract that area from 1.

Area Left to the Z score=1.53 is 0.9370 (As proved in slide no. 14)

1 – 0.9370 = .0630

Therefore, The area to the right of Z = 1.53 is .0630.

So, 6.3% of area is to right of 1.53.

Find the Area Between Two Z-
Scores For e.g : Find the area between Z-scores of -.75 and
1.21.
Ans: First, we’ll find the area to the left of each z-score.
Next, we’ll subtract the smaller area from the larger
area.
1. First, use the negative Z-table to find the area to
the left of -.75. This is .2266.
2. Next, use the positive Z-table to find the area to
the left of 1.21. This is .8869.
3. Finally, subtract the smaller area, .2266, from the
larger area, .8869.
.8869 – .2266 = .6603
4. Therefore, the area between z-scores -.75 and
1.21 is .6603.

.
 Reversing the use of the Z-table.
Instead of finding an area given a z-score, we’re going to work backwards and find a Z-score given
area.
For e.g. Find the Z-score in which the area to its left is .8461.

● All we have to do is find 0.8461 on the z-

table and see what value it corresponds
to.

● For this example it is 1.0 in row and 0.02

in column therefore Z= 1.02
Example: Find the z-score in which the area to its left is 0.40.

If the area to the left is 0.40, as the problem state, then the z-
score has to be negative.

Find the closest value to number 0.40

The closest value we see is 0.4013. The next to the right is
0.3974. While this is close to 0.40, 0.4013 is closer.

For this example it is -0.2 in row and 0.05 in column therefore Z= -0.25
Find the Z-Score Given Area to
the Right
For example, We need to find the Z-score in which the area to its right of 0.80.

Because it is to the right we have to delete 0.80 from 1. So, that we can get area to the left of the
Z-score.
1 – 0.80 = 0.20
Now we have to look for 0.20 in negative Z-table. Area closest to 0.20 in table is 0.2005

For this example it is -0.8 in row and 0.04 in column therefore Z= -0.84
 Examples
1. We gathered data from last year Statistics exam and found that it followed a normal distribution with the
mean of 60 and standard deviation of 10. What proportion of students scored less than 49 on the exam?

1. For mean, μ = 60 = X,
Z = (60-60)/10 = 0

2. For given value i.e. 49

X = 49
Z = (49-60)/10= - 1.1

3. P (X < 49) = P (Z < -1.1) =

The proportion of students

scored less than 49 is
0.1357
 Examples
2. A study of past participant in a training program indicates that the mean length of time spent on the
program is 500 hours and that this normally distributed random variable has a standard deviation of 100 hrs.
What is the probability that a candidate selected at random will take between 500 and 650 hours to complete
the training program?

Solution : Given Data

μ = 500 σ = 100 X = 650

Z = (X - μ)/ σ

= (650 - 500)/ 100

= 1.5 Standard Deviations

Value as per Z Table : 0.4332 500 650

i. e. The probability of occurrence is slightly above 0.4

 Confidence Interval
What
● It is a range of values we are fairly sure our true value lies in.
● An estimated range that seems reasonable based on what we have observed.
It’s center is still the sample mean but we have got some room on the either side for our uncertainty.

Uses

● It comes up a lot like when you get delivery windows for packages
● (Amazon, Dominos)
● During elections when pollsters cite margin of errors. (Exit Polls)
● Pregnant mothers - tentative due date (Sonography)
● Calories and ingredients mentioned on the food packets
(Chocolates, Cakes)
Example
Average Height of 40 students in our class

Mean height = 175cm & Standard Deviation = 20

The 95% Confidence Interval is :

The true mean of ALL students (if we could measure all their heights)
is likely to be between 168.8cm and 181.2cm.

The "95%" says that 95% of experiments like we just did will include
the true mean, but 5% won't.

So there is a 2-in-40 chances (5%) that our Confidence Interval does NOT include the true
mean.
 Calculating the CI
CI Z
Step 1: 90% 1.645
● number of observations n = 40
95% 1.960
● mean X = 175
● standard deviation s = 20 99% 2.576
Step 2: 99.5% 2.807
● decide what Confidence Interval we want
99.9% 3.291
● find the "Z" value for that Confidence Interval
● For 95% the Z value is 1.960

Step 3: Z value in this formula for the Confidence Interval : ( X ± Z * s/ √n )

175 ± 1.960 * 20/ √40 = 175 cm ± 6.20cm i.e from 168.8cm to 181.2cm
Confidence intervals can be computed for different confidence levels:

1. 95% confidence interval: estimate ± (1.96 x standard error)

2. 90% confidence interval: estimate ± (1.64 x standard error)
3. 99% confidence interval: estimate ± (2.58 x standard error)

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution is called the standard error (SE).

The standard error of the mean(SEM) is calculated as (σ / √n)

– where σ is the SD of the population and n is the sample size

– We usually estimate the population SD from the sample of data

Three factors can affect the width of a confidence interval:

Sample size, confidence level and variability in the population of interest.
 Example:

Calculate the 95 % confidence interval for the mean in Excel using the following sample data: 2, 5, 78, 45, 69, 100, 34, 486, 34, 36,
85, 37, 37, 84, 94, 100, 567, 436, 374, 373, 664, 45, 68, 35, 56, 67, 87, 101, 356, 56, 31.

Step 1: Type your data into a single column in Excel. For this example, type the data into cells A1:A31.

Step 2: Click the “Data” tab, then click “Data Analysis,” then click “Descriptive Statistics” and “OK.”

Step 3: Enter your input range into the Input Range box. For this example, your input range is “A1:A31”.

Step 4: Type an output range into the Output Range box. This is where you want your answer to appear. For example, type “B1.”

Step 5: Click the “Summary Statistics” checkbox and then place your chosen confidence level into the ‘Confidence Level for Mean’
check box. For this example, type “95”.

Step 6: Click “OK.”Microsoft Excel will return the confidence interval for the mean and the margin of error for your data.
Mean is 149.742

The margin of error (SE) is 66.9367

So the mean has a lower limit of 149.742 - 66.936 = 82.805 and an

upper limit of 149.742 + 66.936 = 216.678
THANK YOU