IAPM Theory
IAPM Theory
Nature
• BSE: Asia's oldest stock exchange, BSE was established in 1875 and
has a total of 5,309 listed stocks on BSE as of January 24, 2024 .
• NSE: Established in 1992, the NSE is India's largest stock exchange by
trading volume and market capitalization. There are 2,266 stocks
listed on the NSE.
Functioning
Listing of Securities: Companies list their shares or debt instruments on the stock
exchange after fulfilling regulatory requirements. For example, Reliance Industries,
Infosys, and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) are listed on both BSE and NSE.
Trading of Securities: Investors buy and sell securities through stockbrokers, with
trades happening electronically through platforms like NSE's NIFTY and BSE's SENSEX.
Price Discovery: Stock prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, market
sentiment, and company performance. For example, news of quarterly earnings from
HDFC Bank or Infosys can influence stock prices.
Settlement: Once a trade is executed, the settlement process takes place. In India, the
T+1 system is followed, meaning that trade settlements are completed within two
business days.
An example of market manipulation in the Indian context is the Satyam
Computer Services scandal in 2009, also known as "India's Enron." In this
case, the company's founder and then-chairman, Ramalinga Raju, manipulated
financial statements and inflated profits to deceive investors and artificially
boost the stock price of Satyam on the Indian stock exchanges. This led to
significant misrepresentation of the company's financial health, which
attracted numerous investors based on false information.
When Raju eventually admitted to the fraud, Satyam's stock plummeted by
over 70%, wiping out billions of dollars in market value and causing huge
losses to investors. The incident raised serious concerns about corporate
governance, auditing practices, and insider trading in India.
Harshad Mehta stock market scam of 1992, where Mehta manipulated
stock prices by illegally obtaining funds from banks and investing them
in the stock market. This led to a sharp rise in stock prices, followed by
a market crash when the scam was exposed, causing massive losses to
retail investors and shaking the trust in India's financial markets.
Speculation: Stock exchanges can sometimes attract excessive
speculation, leading to artificial price movements that may not reflect a
company’s true value.
Reliance Power IPO in 2008
At the time, the Reliance Power initial public offering (IPO) was one of
the most highly anticipated events in the Indian market, with retail and
institutional investors showing immense interest due to the company's
association with the Reliance Group, which had a strong reputation.
The IPO attracted massive speculation, with the stock being highly
overvalued even before it started trading. The IPO was oversubscribed
by around 73 times, reflecting the speculative frenzy around the stock.
However, once Reliance Power was listed on the stock exchanges, the
stock price dropped dramatically—plummeting by nearly 17% on the
first day of trading and continuing to fall in the following months.
This sharp decline in stock price was a result of excessive speculation
and overvaluation, which did not reflect the company's actual business
fundamentals, leading to significant losses for investors who had
invested at the peak of the hype. The incident highlighted how
speculative bubbles could inflate stock prices artificially and then burst,
leaving investors with substantial losses.
New Issue Market (Primary
Market)
Nature
The new issue market, also known as the primary market, is where
companies raise capital for the first time by issuing new securities to
investors. Companies use this market to issue shares, bonds, or
debentures to fund expansion, pay off debt, or finance projects.
Structure
Initial Public Offering (IPO): In the primary market, companies issue
securities directly to the public for the first time through an IPO. Example:
Zomato IPO (2021) was a landmark issue, raising ₹9,375 crore.
Follow-on Public Offering (FPO): Companies that are already listed may
issue additional shares to the public through an FPO. Example: Tata Steel
FPO (2018) raised additional funds by offering more shares to existing
shareholders and new investors.
Private Placements: Companies can issue securities to a select group of
investors (such as institutional investors) rather than the general public.
Functioning
Issue of Prospectus: A company intending to raise capital through the primary
market releases a prospectus, providing detailed information about its
financials, business model, and the terms of the securities issue.
Underwriting: Investment banks or financial institutions often act as
underwriters, guaranteeing the sale of the issue. They purchase any unsold
shares if the issue is not fully subscribed.
Allotment: Once investors subscribe to the issue, the company allots the
securities. In cases of oversubscription, shares are allotted on a proportionate
basis.
Listing on Stock Exchange: After securities are sold in the primary market, they
are listed on the stock exchange for trading in the secondary market. Example:
LIC IPO (2022), India’s largest IPO, raised ₹21,000 crore and was subsequently
listed on the BSE and NSE.
Limitations
High Risk for Investors: Companies entering the market through an IPO
may be untested, and investors face higher risks compared to investing
in established companies. Example: Some IPOs, like Paytm (2021), saw
a sharp decline in share value shortly after listing, leading to significant
losses for initial investors.
Underpricing or Overpricing: IPOs are often underpriced to ensure
their success, potentially reducing the gains for the issuing company.
Conversely, overpricing can lead to underperformance post-listing.
An example of underpricing in an IPO is the Coal India Limited IPO in 2010. Coal India, a state-owned
enterprise, launched its IPO, which became one of the largest in Indian history at the time. The IPO was priced
at ₹245 per share and was significantly oversubscribed by institutional and retail investors, showing strong
demand.
When Coal India shares were listed on the stock exchange, the stock price surged by over 40% on the first day
of trading, closing at around ₹342 per share. This large increase in the share price on the first day suggested
that the IPO was underpriced, as the company could have potentially raised more capital if the shares were
initially priced higher. While this benefited investors, it reduced the potential gains for Coal India.
An example of overpricing is the Paytm IPO in 2021. Paytm, India's leading digital payments company,
launched its IPO with a high valuation, pricing its shares at ₹2,150. However, after its listing, the stock price
fell by more than 27% on the first day of trading, closing at ₹1,564. The overpricing of the IPO led to
significant underperformance post-listing, resulting in heavy losses for many investors. The market sentiment
was that the stock was overvalued, which led to a sharp correction after its debut. This case highlighted the
risks of overpricing in IPOs, especially when the market perception does not align with the company's
valuation.
Trading of Securities
1. Trading of Equity (Shares):
Equity represents ownership in a company, and shareholders benefit
from dividends and capital gains when the company's value increases.
Mechanism: Equities are traded on the secondary market (BSE and
NSE). Investors place buy and sell orders through stockbrokers.
Example: Infosys shares can be bought or sold on the NSE or BSE. Share
prices fluctuate daily based on company performance, industry trends,
and market sentiment.
Trading of Debentures and Bonds
Debentures and bonds are debt instruments issued by companies or the
government to raise long-term capital. Unlike equity, bondholders do not
own a part of the company but receive interest payments.
Government Bonds: The Government of India issues bonds, such as 10-
Year Government Bonds, to finance infrastructure projects.
Corporate Bonds: Companies like Tata Motors or Reliance Industries
issue corporate bonds or debentures to raise funds.
Mechanism: These are traded in the debt segment of the secondary
market. Bonds can be bought and sold through stock exchanges or in the
over-the-counter (OTC) market. Example: An investor may buy Tata
Motors Debentures listed on the NSE, earning fixed interest over a
specified term.
The Over-the-Counter (OTC) market in India refers to a decentralized market where securities, commodities,
or financial instruments are traded directly between two parties, without the supervision of an exchange. In
contrast to stock exchanges, OTC markets are less regulated, and trades are usually carried out through a
network of dealers, brokers, or financial institutions. OTC markets are typically used for trading instruments
like bonds, derivatives, unlisted stocks, and government securities.
Examples of OTC Market in India:
Government Securities (G-Secs) Market: In India, government securities (such as treasury bills and bonds)
are often traded in the OTC market. Large financial institutions, banks, and institutional investors conduct
these transactions directly with each other, without the involvement of a stock exchange. The Negotiated
Dealing System (NDS) platform, launched by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), facilitates OTC trading in
government securities.
Corporate Bonds: Many corporate bonds and debt instruments are traded over-the-counter in India,
particularly those issued by large corporations and financial institutions. These instruments are generally
traded directly between institutional investors, such as mutual funds, insurance companies, and banks. For
example, bonds issued by companies like Tata Sons, HDFC, and Reliance Industries are often traded in the
OTC market.
Unlisted Stocks: Companies that are not listed on formal exchanges, such as Muthoot
Finance or Tata Sky, have their shares traded in the OTC market. These transactions
are handled through brokers or financial institutions without going through a
traditional stock exchange like the BSE or NSE.
Forex Market: India's foreign exchange (forex) market operates largely in the OTC
space. Currency derivatives, spot trades, and forward contracts between banks,
companies, and other institutional players happen directly, outside any exchange, with
the involvement of authorized dealers or brokers.
OTC Exchange of India (OTCEI): While the OTCEI was set up as an organized OTC
market in the 1990s to allow smaller companies to raise funds, it struggled to gain
traction and was shut down in 2015. Despite its closure, the initiative was an example
of an attempt to formalize OTC trading in equity and debt securities in India.
Limitations in Trading
Liquidity: Bonds and debentures may suffer from lower liquidity than
equities, making it harder to buy or sell them quickly.
• The market is now moving to same-day settlement of trades, within a year of fully implementing the
T+1 cycle. ‘
T+0 settlement offers a paradigm shift – trades are settled on the same business day they are
executed, and the sellers will receive the money on the same day the trade is executed.
Clearing Process:
• After a trade is executed, the clearing house steps in as an intermediary between the buyer and
seller. The clearing house guarantees the trade, reducing counterparty risk.
• The clearing house verifies the buyer and seller’s details and ensures that the buyer has sufficient
funds and the seller has the necessary securities.
Delivery vs. Intraday Trading
Delivery Trading: In this method, the buyer takes actual delivery of the
shares, meaning they own them and can hold them indefinitely.
Intraday Trading: In contrast, intraday trades must be squared off
(bought and sold) within the same day, without actual delivery of
shares.
Regulatory Systems for Equity Markets
India's equity markets are regulated by a comprehensive framework
designed to ensure transparency, fairness, and investor protection. The
regulatory system is spearheaded by several key institutions, including
the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Reserve Bank of
India (RBI), Ministry of Finance, and Stock Exchanges like the National
Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). These
institutions are responsible for formulating rules, monitoring market
activities, and taking enforcement actions when necessary.
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
While the RBI primarily focuses on regulating the banking sector and monetary policy, it also plays
a crucial role in the equity markets, especially with respect to foreign investment and capital flows.
Key Roles of RBI in Equity Markets:
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI): The RBI regulates the
entry and participation of foreign investors in Indian equity markets. Foreign investments are
crucial for market liquidity, and the RBI issues guidelines on the amount and terms of investments
by FPIs and FIIs. Example: The Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), regulated by RBI,
governs how FIIs and FPIs can participate in equity markets. In January 2020, RBI allowed higher
foreign ownership limits in sectors like defense and telecommunications, which led to significant
foreign investments in companies like Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank.
Control over Banking Sector Exposure: RBI also regulates how much banks can invest in equity
markets and prevents over-exposure to stock market risks. Example: The RBI's prudential norms
limit the exposure of banks to equity markets, helping manage risk and ensuring that banks don't
face undue stress due to stock market volatility.
Ministry of Finance
The Ministry of Finance is responsible for formulating the government's policies on capital markets,
taxation, and related economic issues. Its key functions include drafting laws that impact equity
markets and overseeing SEBI’s functioning.
Key Roles of the Ministry of Finance:
Taxation of Equity Investments: The government decides the taxation regime for equity
investments, including Capital Gains Tax. The ministry has adjusted the Long-Term Capital Gains
(LTCG) and Short-Term Capital Gains (STCG) tax rates to optimize investor participation while
balancing revenue needs. Example: In the 2018 Union Budget, the Ministry of Finance reintroduced
a 10% LTCG tax on gains over ₹1 lakh on the sale of equity shares after a year, affecting long-term
investors.
Disinvestment and IPOs of Public Sector Enterprises: The Ministry also plays a key role in public
offerings of state-owned enterprises (PSUs). Example: The IPO of Life Insurance Corporation of
India (LIC) in 2022 was managed by the Ministry of Finance as part of the government’s
disinvestment strategy.
Stock Exchanges (BSE & NSE)
BSE and NSE are India's major stock exchanges and have their own set of regulations in
addition to those of SEBI. They monitor the day-to-day trading activities and ensure smooth
market operations.
Key Roles of Stock Exchanges:
Market Surveillance: The exchanges are responsible for monitoring unusual price movements
and insider trading activities. They work closely with SEBI to prevent market manipulation.
Example: In 2020, NSE halted trading for 45 minutes when the index dropped sharply,
triggering the circuit breaker mechanism to prevent a crash.
Clearing and Settlement: Exchanges also oversee the settlement of trades through their
respective clearinghouses — the National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCCL) for
NSE and the Indian Clearing Corporation Limited (ICCL) for BSE. Example: When an investor
buys shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the trade is settled on a T+2 basis, meaning
the shares and funds are transferred within two working days after the trade date.
Depositories (NSDL & CDSL)
1. Retail Investors
Retail investors are individual investors who buy and sell securities for
personal accounts, often in smaller quantities. They invest in stocks,
bonds, mutual funds, or other investment vehicles to meet their personal
financial goals, such as retirement planning, children's education, or
wealth creation.
Characteristics:
• Small-scale investment amounts.
• Typically have a lower risk appetite.
• More likely to be influenced by market sentiment and news.
• Often participate in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).
• Institutional Investors
Institutional investors are organizations or entities that invest substantial amounts
of capital into the stock market. These include mutual funds, pension funds,
insurance companies, banks, and hedge funds. Their investments can significantly
impact market prices due to the large volumes of securities they trade.
Types of Institutional Investors:
• Mutual Funds: These funds pool money from various investors to invest in
diversified portfolios of securities.
• Insurance Companies: Invest premiums collected from policyholders into various
financial instruments.
• Pension Funds: Manage large sums of money set aside for employees’ retirement.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) / Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs)
They are non-Indian entities that invest in Indian equity markets. They
play a crucial role in providing liquidity and driving market trends in
India.
Characteristics:
• Large investment volumes.
• Subject to RBI and SEBI regulations.
• A significant presence in the Indian markets, making them key drivers
of market volatility.
• Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)
They are Indian financial institutions, including banks, insurance
companies, pension funds, and mutual funds, that invest in the Indian
stock market. DIIs provide a counterbalance to foreign investors and
help stabilize markets.
Example:
When FIIs pulled out of the Indian markets in March 2020 due to the
global pandemic, DIIs like LIC and HDFC Mutual Fund stepped in,
buying significant shares to prevent the market from falling further. This
intervention helped stabilize the market, preventing a larger crash.
High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs)
They are wealthy individuals who invest significant amounts of money in the market. While they
are still classified as retail investors, their capital and risk appetite are much larger compared to
the average retail investor.
Characteristics:
• Significant capital investments.
• Often participate in private placements and Qualified Institutional Placements (QIPs).
• Invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, and venture capital.
Example:
HNIs often participate in IPOs through the Non-Institutional Investor (NII) category. In the Nykaa
IPO of 2021, many HNIs made large investments, applying for shares worth crores, hoping to
benefit from the company's strong growth prospects in the beauty and personal care sector.
Speculators
They are investors who engage in short-term, high-risk trading with the aim of making
quick profits. They often trade in derivatives like futures and options, betting on price
movements in specific stocks or indices.
Characteristics:
• High risk appetite.
• Frequent trading with a focus on short-term gains.
• Often engage in margin trading or leveraged investments.
• Example:
• Speculators may trade in Nifty 50 options or futures contracts, aiming to profit from
the daily or weekly fluctuations in the index. They may also invest in volatile stocks
like Adani Enterprises or Vedanta to capitalize on sharp price movements.
Value Investors
Value investors are those who invest in companies that are
undervalued by the market but have strong fundamentals. These
investors believe that the market will eventually recognize the true
worth of the company, leading to capital appreciation over time.
Example:
Famed investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala was known as a value investor
who bought large stakes in companies like Titan and Lupin when they
were undervalued and held them over the long term, profiting from
their eventual growth and stock price appreciation.
Angel Investors and Venture Capitalists
Angel investors and venture capitalists invest in early-stage startups,
often providing the capital required for a company to grow in exchange
for equity. These investors take on significant risks, as startups are often
unproven and may fail.
Example:
In the Indian startup ecosystem, angel investors like Ratan Tata and
venture capital firms like Sequoia Capital India have invested in
companies like Ola, Flipkart, and Byju’s, backing these companies at an
early stage before they became market leaders.
Socially Responsible Investors (SRI)
They focus on companies that meet specific ethical, social, or
environmental criteria. They prefer to invest in firms that follow
sustainable practices and contribute to the welfare of society.
Example:
Many SRIs in India are focusing on the renewable energy sector,
investing in companies like Tata Power and Suzlon Energy, which are
involved in green energy initiatives. Mutual funds like SBI Magnum ESG
Fund also cater to investors seeking companies with strong
environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices.
Aim of Security Analysis
Determine the Intrinsic Value: The primary goal is to estimate the true or intrinsic value of a security,
which helps investors decide whether to buy, hold, or sell. Example: Analyzing Reliance Industries stock by
reviewing its balance sheet, revenue growth, and future expansion plans to determine its intrinsic value.
Assess Risk and Return: Security analysis helps investors gauge the risk associated with a security and its
potential return, enabling them to choose investments aligned with their risk tolerance. Example:
Evaluating the risk associated with investing in Adani Group stocks post-2022 controversies, considering
political risks, regulatory scrutiny, and future earnings prospects.
Make Informed Investment Decisions: Security analysis provides insights that support investment
decisions, whether for short-term trading or long-term investing. Example: Based on analysis, an investor
might decide to invest in HDFC Bank for long-term growth due to its stable earnings and leadership in the
Indian banking sector.
Minimize Investment Losses: By performing detailed analysis, investors can avoid poorly performing stocks
or exit before significant losses. Example: Analyzing debt-heavy companies like Vodafone Idea to assess
whether their financial health can lead to potential losses in the long term.
Approaches to Security Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
It involves evaluating a company's financial health, its business model, and
macroeconomic factors. It looks at qualitative and quantitative factors to estimate the
intrinsic value of a security. Investors compare this intrinsic value to the current market
price to determine whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
Key Components:
• Financial Statements: Income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements are
analyzed to evaluate profitability, solvency, and liquidity.
• Company Performance Metrics: Ratios like Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B),
Debt-to-Equity, and Return on Equity (ROE) are studied.
• Industry and Economic Analysis: Examining the industry’s future prospects,
competition, and macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth, inflation, and interest
rates.
Advantages:
• Focuses on long-term value creation.
• Helps identify fundamentally strong companies that may offer high
returns in the future.
Limitations:
• Time-consuming as it requires in-depth research.
• Long-term focus may not suit short-term traders.
Technical Analysis
It is based on studying historical price movements and trading volumes. It
assumes that all relevant information about a security is already reflected in its
price and focuses on identifying trends, patterns, and market sentiment using
charts and technical indicators.
Key Components:
• Price Trends: Identifying trends like uptrends, downtrends, or sideways
movements.
• Chart Patterns: Analyzing patterns like head and shoulders, double
top/bottom, or triangle patterns.
• Technical Indicators: Using indicators like Moving Averages, Relative Strength
Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands to time buy and sell decisions.
Advantages:
• Ideal for short-term traders who rely on market timing.
• Provides actionable insights based on historical price movements.
Limitations:
• Does not consider the intrinsic value of the company.
• Price movements can sometimes be unpredictable due to external
shocks or events.
Quantitative Analysis
It uses mathematical models, statistics, and algorithms to evaluate
securities. It often involves analyzing historical data, such as earnings
reports, stock prices, and other metrics, to make investment decisions.
Advantages:
• Data-driven approach reduces emotional bias.
• Can identify patterns that may not be visible through other methods.
Limitations:
• Heavily reliant on historical data and may not account for sudden
market changes.
Behavioral Finance
It explores the psychological aspects of investing, recognizing that
investors are not always rational and their emotions can lead to market
inefficiencies. This approach seeks to understand how cognitive biases,
emotions, and crowd psychology affect security prices.
Example in Indian Context:
In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, many investors in India
exhibited herding behavior, leading to panic selling in the early months
of the crisis. However, this was followed by a sharp market rebound,
showing that psychological factors can lead to irrational decision-
making.
List of major stock market scandals
• Enron Scandal (USA, 2001)
• Bernie Madoff Ponzi Scheme (USA, 2008)
• Satyam Scandal (India, 2009)
• Libor Scandal (Global, 2012)
• Pump and Dump Schemes (Global)
• Wirecard Scandal (Germany, 2020)
• Volkswagen Emissions Scandal (Global, 2015)
• Harshad Mehta Scam (India, 1992)
• Galleon Group Insider Trading Scandal (USA, 2009)
• Nick Leeson and Barings Bank Collapse (UK, 1995)
• China’s Luckin Coffee Fraud (China, 2020)
• The SEC vs. Martha Stewart (USA, 2004)
• MF Global Collapse (USA, 2011)
• Robinhood and GameStop Short Squeeze (USA, 2021)
• 1MDB Scandal (Malaysia, 2015)
Crisis in Stock Market
• The Panic of 1907
• Wall Street Crash of 1929 (Great Depression)
• Black Monday (1987)
• Asian Financial Crisis (1997)
• Dot-com Bubble (2000-2002)
• Global Financial Crisis (2008)
• European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010-2012)
• 2015-2016 Chinese Stock Market Crash
• COVID-19 Crash (2020)
• 2022 Bear Market