POPULATION GROWTH

Guiding question
How can natural systems be modelled,
and can these models be used to
predict the effects of human
disturbance?

Fish populations, such as the schooling Anchovies

(left) being hunted by the Bluefin Trevally (right) are
an excellent example of how dynamic populations
are. The process affecting population density here is
mortality caused by predation.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Moofushi_Kandu_fish.jpg
Population
Factors that determine the distribution of a population can be
abiotic or biotic
Temperature, sunlight, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen and soil texture
are examples of many abiotic factors that affect species distributions
in ecosystems.
Population
Populations interact in ecosystems by herbivory,
predation, parasitism, mutualism, disease and
competition, with ecological, behavioural and
evolutionary consequences.
Predator-prey population cycles
In habitats with low biodiversity (such as Artic), Because the predator
may rely on one prey as a food source, their population levels are
interdependent
Predator-prey populations
Predator–prey cycles
caribou(prey)
1,600
wolves (predator)

A high predator The prey population

1,200 population peaks when the
adult population

reduces the prey predator population

population is low
800

400

0
5 10 15 20 25 30
generation
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Exponential population growth

For exponential growth to occur it requires
an ideal, unlimited environment:
• All individuals survive to reproduce
successfully
• Resources are unlimited …
… therefore there is no
competition and no limit
to the population

Changes in a population of Paramecium over a six

day period

J-shaped growth curve

Conditions needed in nature:

• The population is very small
• The organism has just colonised a new environment
http://www.nature.com/scitable/content/ne0000/ne0000/ne0000/ne0000/13309363/vandermeer_figure1_ksm.jpg
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Exponential population growth: ideal conditions with no

limiting factors, population grows rapidly
o Initially population growth will be slow as there is a shortage of
reproducing individuals that may be widely dispersed
African elephant was protected from hunting
o As population numbers
increase the rate of
growth similarly increases,
resulting in an exponential
curve
o If there are no limiting
factors, population growth
follows a J-curve
(exponential growth).
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Examples of exponential population growth

Throughout the 1800's, hunters
decimated the American
Plains bison populations, and
by 1889, only about one
thousand bison remained.

The US government, along with private

landowners, established protected herds
in the late 1800's and early 1900's. The
herds started small, but with plentiful
resources and few predators, they grew
quickly. The bison population in
northern Yellowstone National Park
increased from 21 bison in 1902 to 250
in only 13 years.

http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/an-introduction-to-population-growth-84225544
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Examples of exponential population growth

Does it surprise you that
human population
size is growing
exponentially?

This graph shows the explosion of human population over the last
10,000 years along with some relevant historical events.

http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/an-introduction-to-population-growth-84225544
Carrying capacity is the maximum size of a
population determined by competition for limited
resources.
2.1.10 Carrying capacity is the maximum size of a population determined by competition for limited
resources.

Carrying Capacity
o Population growth slows as a population reaches the carrying
capacity of the environment.
o Biotic and abiotic factors affect carrying capacity
o Carrying capacity is determined by the availability of nutrients,
shelter and breeding sites, presence of natural predators etc.

Populations fluctuate
around the carrying
capacity.
2.1.10 Carrying capacity is the maximum size of a population determined by competition for limited resources.

Carrying Capacity
Limiting factors slows the growth of a population as it reaches the carrying
capacity of the environment.
Biotic and abiotic factors affect carrying capacity
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Limiting factors are environmental factors that controls

the maximum rate at which a process, e.g. population
growth, can occur.

• build-up of toxic by products

of metabolism
• Injury
• Senescence (death from age
related illness)
2.1.11 Population size is regulated by density-dependent factors and negative feedback mechanisms.

Density dependent factors

Density dependent factors includes competition for limited resources, increased
risk of predation and the transfer of pathogens in dense populations.

The effect of these limiting

factors increases as the
population increases. These
factors are described as
being density dependent
limiting factors.
• build-up of toxic by products
of metabolism
• Injury
• Senescence (death from age
related illness)
Disease
2.1.11 Population size is regulated by density-dependent factors and negative feedback mechanisms.

Density-independent factors
Environmental conditions like climate, temperature, rainfall patterns and soil
fertility can limit population size

The this limiting factor does

not increases as the
population increases. This
factor is described as being a
density independent limiting
factor.
• build-up of toxic by products
of metabolism

Examples include:
• Injury
• Climate / weather
• Senescence (death from age
related illness)
• Availability of light (for plants)
• Natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions and fire
Density-Independent Factors

http://nupge.ca/sites/new.nupge.ca//files/images/2011/forest-fire_FL.jpg
Density-Independent Factors

http://therivermanagementblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/dsc03951.jpg
2.1.11 Population size is regulated by density-dependent factors and negative feedback mechanisms.

Carrying Capacity and Density dependent factors

o Population size is regulated by density-dependent factors and
negative feedback mechanisms
o Density-independent factors may have significant influence on
population size, but it is the density dependent factors that tend
to regulate the population around the carrying capacity.

o Density dependent factors

drive negative feedback
mechanisms which acts to
return a population to its
equilibrium state,
maintaining stability
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Population Growth Curves

In your books:
Draw the graph and then explain what it shows.

If there are no
limiting factors,
population growth
follows a J-curve
(exponential
growth). When
density-dependent
limiting factors start
to operate, the curve
becomes S-shaped
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

A summary of population growth described by the sigmoidal curve

Transitional Phase: As the population
continues to grow, eventually competition
increases as availability of resources are
reduced. Natality starts to fall and mortality
starts to rise, leading to a slower rate of
population increase

Plateau Phase
• The population has reached the
carrying capacity (K) of the
environment
• Changes in limiting factors cause the
population to fluctuate around the
Lag Phase carrying capacity (this is controlled by
negative feedback mechanisms)
• Eventually the increasing mortality
rate equals the natality rate and
population size becomes constant.
Lag Phase: The initial
population is slow when Exponential Phase
the population is small • There is a rapid increase in population size / growth as
limiting factors are low or reduced
• This is because there is abundant resources (e.g. food,
shelter and water) and limited environmental resistance
(disease and predation uncommon)
• the natality rate exceeds the mortality rate
Human Population growth
There are about 8 billion people in the world and over
95 million babies are born per year – that is an average
of three babies per second!

Has the rate of population growth always been the same?

2.1.13 Limiting factors on the growth of human populations have increasingly been eliminated, resulting in
consequences for sustainability of ecosystems.

Human population growth

Limiting factors on the growth of human populations have increasingly been
eliminated, resulting in consequences for sustainability of ecosystems.
This was carried out through elimination of natural predators, technological advances,
and degradation of the environment
Does it surprise you that
human population
size is growing
exponentially?

This graph shows the

explosion of human
population over the last
10,000 years along with
some relevant historical
events.

http://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/an-introduction-to-population-growth-84225544
2.1.12 Population growth can either be exponential or limited by carrying capacity.

Human population growth

Limiting factors on the growth of human populations have increasingly
been eliminated, resulting in consequences for sustainability of
ecosystems.
This was carried out through elimination of natural predators,
technological advances, and degradation of the environment
 Medical Revolution-better healthcare (hospitals, medicines,
vaccines)
 Agricultural Revolution -more efficient food production, use of
fertilisers, pesticides, mechanisation, genetics in crops, improved
food storage and distribution
 Industrial Revolution- improved housing
 cleaner water and better sanitation
2.1.14 Carrying capacity cannot be easily assessed for human populations.

Accessing Carrying Capacity for Human population

Carrying capacity cannot be easily assessed for human populations.
This is because of the broad and changing ecological niche of humans.
• Mobility of resources: Populations in ecosystems tend to reach equilibrium when the
availability of resources matches the population’s needs. Populations achieve
equilibrium within ecosystems, but human populations is being less limited due to
mobility of resources. Humans have the ability to move and exploit resources beyond
their immediate environment. This mobility complicates the assessment of carrying
capacity as humans draw resources from distant locations.

The expansion of the human niche also takes place through technological advances and
changes in consumption.
• Technological advances: Human societies have the ability to modify their environment
and overcome traditional carrying capacity limitations through technology. For example,
the development of agriculture and irrigation techniques has allowed humans to
increase food production and support larger population beyond what the natural
environment could sustain.
• Changes in consumption: Human population are characterized by varying lifestyles and
consumption rates, which can significantly impact resource demands and environmental
impacts. For example, urbanized societies with high levels of consumption may strain
the carrying capacity of their surrounding areas due to increased resource demands and
waste generation
2.1.14 Carrying capacity cannot be easily assessed for human populations.

Disputed estimates of carrying capacity

Carrying capacity cannot be easily assessed for human populations.
The rapidly changing human habitat leads to estimates of carrying capacity that are
disputed and that can only be estimated for “now”.

Two possible scenarios

showing how human
population may reach
carrying capacity