Inferntial statistics

Prof. Dr. Ayaz Muhammad Khan

 Inferential statistics
• Inferential statistics is a branch of statistics focused on drawing
conclusions and making predictions about a population based on
data sampled from that population. Inferential statistics allows
researchers to make inferences about a larger group beyond the
immediate data at hand.In descriptive statistics, there is no
uncertainty – the statistics precisely describe the data that you
collected. If you collect data from an entire population, you can
directly compare these descriptive statistics to those from other
populations.
Generalization from Samples to
Populations:
• Inferential statistics allows researchers to extend
findings from a sample to the larger population, even
though they haven’t observed every individual in that
population. For example, if a study measures the
average height of a sample of people, inferential
statistics can help estimate the average height of the
entire population.
Key Techniques in Inferential
Statistics
• Confidence Intervals: Provide a range within which the population
parameter is likely to fall, given a certain level of confidence (e.g.,
95%).
• Hypothesis Testing: Determines if observed effects or differences are
statistically significant.
• Regression Analysis: Models relationships between variables to make
predictions or understand dependencies.
• Analysis of Variance (ANOVA): Compares means across multiple
groups to see if there are significant differences.
Inferntial Statisitics
• Inferential statistics involves the use of a sample
• (1) to estimate some characteristic in a large
population; and
• (2) to test a research hypothesis about a given
population.
• To appropriately estimate a population characteristic,
or parameter, a random and unbiased sample must be
drawn from the population of interest.
Logic of statistical generalization
• 1. Sample is representative
• 2. Wider population is properly defined
• 3. Sample was drawn from the population using probability sampling
method
Parametric tests make assumptions
that include the following:
• the population that the sample comes from follows a normal distribution of
scores
• the sample size is large enough to represent the population
• the variances, a measure of variability, of each group being compared are similar
• When your data violates any of these assumptions, non-parametric tests are
more suitable. Non-parametric tests are called “distribution-free tests” because
they don’t assume anything about the distribution of the population data.

• Statistical tests come in three forms: tests of comparison, correlation or

regression.
Comparison tests
• Comparison tests assess whether there are differences in means,
medians or rankings of scores of two or more groups.

• To decide which test suits your aim, consider whether your data
meets the conditions necessary for parametric tests, the number of
samples, and the levels of measurement of your variables.

• Means can only be found for interval or ratio data, while medians and
rankings are more appropriate measures for ordinal data.
Hypothesis Testing:
• Inferential statistics involves testing hypotheses to
determine if the patterns or relationships observed in
a sample are likely to apply to the broader population.
This includes testing a null hypothesis (typically
suggesting no effect or difference) against an
alternative hypothesis.
 Seven Steps to Hypothesis
Testing
(1) Making assumptions
(2) Stating the research
3) Null hypotheses
4) Selecting alpha
(5) Selecting the sampling distribution and specifying the test statistic
(6) Computing the test statistic
(7) Making a decision and interpreting the results
The philosophy of the null
hypothesis in inferential statistics
• It is rooted in scientific skepticism, the principle
of falsifiability, and the aim to make cautious,
evidence-based decisions. By requiring strong
evidence to reject H 0 researchers ensure rigor
and reliability in scientific conclusions. Typically,
the null hypothesis suggests "no effect" or "no
difference," setting a standard against which the
research hypothesis (alternative hypothesis) is
evaluated.
Sampling error in inferential
statistics
• Since the size of a sample is always smaller than the size of the
population, some of the population isn’t captured by sample data.
This creates sampling error, which is the difference between the true
population values (called parameters) and the measured sample
values (called statistics).

• Sampling error arises any time you use a sample, even if your sample
is random and unbiased. For this reason, there is always some
uncertainty in inferential statistics. However, using probability
sampling methods reduces this uncertainty.
Estimating population parameters
from sample statistics
• The characteristics of samples and populations are described by
numbers called statistics and parameters:

• A statistic is a measure that describes the sample (e.g., sample mean).

• A parameter is a measure that describes the whole population (e.g.,
population mean).
• Sampling error is the difference between a parameter and a
corresponding statistic. Since in most cases you don’t know the real
population parameter, you can use inferential statistics to estimate
these parameters in a way that takes sampling error into account.
Estimation of Parameters:

• Inferential statistics uses sample data to

estimate population parameters (e.g., the
population mean or proportion). These
estimates help understand population
characteristics that are not directly
measurable due to time, cost, or logistical
limitations.
Uncertainty and Probability:
• Because inferences are based on
samples and not full populations, there’s
an inherent level of uncertainty.
Inferential statistics incorporates
probability to quantify this uncertainty,
often through confidence intervals or p-
values.
Making Predictions:
• Beyond simply describing populations,
inferential statistics can be used for
making predictions. For example, in
regression analysis, inferential statistics
helps model relationships between
variables, enabling predictions about
future data points or trends.
What does it mean to generalize
• Statistical generalization involves generalizing
from sample to population. it actually relies on
probability theory which enables us to estimate
how likely pattern in a sample are to reflect real
patterns in the population. Since statistical
generalization is based on probability theory, it
assumes that any sample from which such
genralization are made in a probability sample
• To run a One Sample t Test in SPSS, click Analyze > Compare Means >
One-Sample T Test. The One-Sample T Test window opens where you
will specify the variables ...
One Sample t test
• Null Hypothesis for a One-Sample t-Test (Education Example)

• Null Hypothesis (H₀):

• In a one-sample t-test, the null hypothesis typically states that there is
no significant difference between the sample mean and the
population mean.
One Sample t Test On ESD scale
N Mean SD t df Sig (2
tailed)
Job Embededness 732 160.36 27.91 155.86 731 .000
scale
SPSS One-Sample t-Test Output
Interpretation
• When you run a one-sample t-test in SPSS, you'll get a table that typically contains the following columns:

• 1. **t-value:** This is the calculated t-statistic. It indicates how far the sample mean deviates from the population mean in
terms of standard error.
•
• 2. **df (degrees of freedom):** This is the sample size minus 1 (n-1). It affects the critical value for the t-distribution.

• 3. **Sig. (2-tailed):** This is the p-value, which tells you whether the results are statistically significant. It tests the null
hypothesis:
• - If **p < 0.05**: You reject the null hypothesis (there is a significant difference between the sample mean and the population
mean).
• - If **p ≥ 0.05**: You fail to reject the null hypothesis (no significant difference).

• 4. **Mean Difference:** This is the difference between the sample mean and the population mean.

• 5. **Confidence Interval (CI):** This shows the range within which the true population mean likely falls, based on your sample
data.
• ****
• - The **t-value** of 2.45 suggests that the sample mean is 2.45
standard errors away from the population mean.
• - The **p-value (Sig.)** is 0.02, which is less than 0.05, so you **reject
the null hypothesis**. This means there is a significant difference
between the class's average score and the national average score.
• - The **mean difference** of 3.5 indicates that, on average, students in
the class scored 3.5 points higher than the national average.
• - The **95% CI** suggests that we are 95% confident that the true
mean difference lies between 0.5 and 6.5 points.
Confidence intervals
A confidence interval uses the variability around a statistic to come up with an interval estimate for a
parameter. Confidence intervals are useful for estimating parameters because they take sampling error
into account.

While a point estimate gives you a precise value for the parameter you are interested in, a confidence
interval tells you the uncertainty of the point estimate. They are best used in combination with each
other.

Each confidence interval is associated with a confidence level. A confidence level tells you the
probability (in percentage) of the interval containing the parameter estimate if you repeat the study
again.

A 95% confidence interval means that if you repeat your study with a new sample in exactly the same
way 100 times, you can expect your estimate to lie within the specified range of values 95 times.
Estimates you can make about the
population
• There are two important types of estimates you can make about the
population: point estimates and interval estimates.

• A point estimate is a single value estimate of a parameter. For

instance, a sample mean is a point estimate of a population mean.
• An interval estimate gives you a range of values where the parameter
is expected to lie. A confidence interval is the most common type of
interval estimate.
• Both types of estimates are important for gathering a clear idea of
where a parameter is likely to lie.
• Although you can say that your estimate will lie within the interval a
certain percentage of the time, you cannot say for sure that the actual
population parameter will. That’s because you can’t know the true
value of the population parameter without collecting data from the
full population.

• However, with random sampling and a suitable sample size, you can
reasonably expect your confidence interval to contain the parameter
a certain percentage of the time.
Hypothesis testing
• Hypothesis testing is a formal process of statistical analysis using
inferential statistics. The goal of hypothesis testing is to compare
populations or assess relationships between variables using samples.

• Hypotheses, or predictions, are tested using statistical tests. Statistical

tests also estimate sampling errors so that valid inferences can be made.

• Statistical tests can be parametric or non-parametric. Parametric tests

are considered more statistically powerful because they are more likely
to detect an effect if one exists.
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