Hypothesis

D.R. Regmi
[email protected]
 What is a Hypothesis?
I assume the mean Systolic
Blood Pressure of
participants is 120 mmHg

An assumption about
the population
parameter.
 Hypothesis Testing
 A hypothesis may be defined simply as a
statement about one or more population.
 Hypothesis is frequently concerned with the
parameter of populations about which the
statement is made.
 Hypothesis mean the pre assumption or
quantitative statement of the population parameter
which may be true or false.
 Researcher are concerned with two type of
hypothesis.
 Nature/characteristics of good
hypothesis
• Hypothesis should be clear and precise
• It can be tested-verifiable or falsifiable
• It is a prediction of consequences or expected
future outcome
• It is considered valuable even if proven false
• It has at least two variable (specify dependent
and independent variables)
• It expresses relationship between the variables
 Nature/characteristics of good
hypothesis
• Hypothesis should be limited in the scope and
must be specified ( narrower hypothesis is
more prefers)
• Hypothesis should be state as far as possible in
most simple term so that easy understandable
by all concerned
• Hypothesis should be tested within the
reasonable time
 Purpose of Hypothesis
• Unification of theory and reality
• Extension of knowledge
• Research direction
• Selection of relevant factors
• Draw specific conclusion
Types of Hypothesis
1.Research Hypothesis:
The research hypothesis is the conjecture or
supposition that motivates the research.
Eg: person who consume Balanced diet will gain
normal BMI than not consuming balanced diet
2. Statistical hypothesis
Statistical hypotheses are hypothesis that are stated
in such a way that they may be evaluated by
appropriate Statistical technique.
 1. Research Hypothesis
 The research hypothesis is the conjecture or
supposition that motivates the research.
 Research hypothesis is a predictive statement,
capable of being tested by specific methods, that
relates an independent variable to some
dependent variable.
 Statement: person who consume Balanced diet
will gain normal BMI than not consuming
balanced diet
 Research hypothesis lead directly to statistical
hypothesis.
 Types of Research Hypothesis
A. Directional Research hypothesis:
• If the research show a particular relationship or
difference, exists between group of subjects, the
hypothesis is stated as directing or in the
direction of expected outcome
i.e. it states the direction or the expected
outcome
E.g. If a person gets 7 hours of sleep, then he will
feel less fatigue than if he sleeps less.
Therapy decreases depression
Advantages of Directional Hypothesis
• Specific predictions: Directional hypotheses
provide a clear prediction of the expected
relationship between variables, allowing for a
focused investigation.
• Increased statistical power: By focusing on
one direction of the relationship, researchers can
allocate more statistical power to that specific
direction, increasing the chances of detecting a
significant effect if it exists.
B. Non-directional research hypothesis:
• A non-directional hypothesis is stated when
the researcher has no reason to believe that a
difference between or relationship exist in any
direction.
• E.g. “there is a relationship between caffeine
consumption and reaction time.” Here, the
researcher expects a relationship between the
variables but does not specify the direction.
Advantages of Non-Directional Hypothesis:
• Flexibility: Non-directional hypotheses
provide flexibility in exploring relationships
between variables without preconceived
notions about the direction of the effect.
• Open to unexpected findings: By not
specifying the direction, researchers remain
open to unexpected results or alternative
explanations that may emerge during the
analysis.
 2. Statistical hypothesis
Statistical hypotheses is also classified into two
type.
Parametric test of hypothesis
Those hypothesis are used in parameter such as
t-test, Z-test, F-test etc.
Non Parametric test of hypothesis
Those hypothesis are not used in parameter such
as chi-square test, Run test, Sign test etc.
 Hypothesis Testing Methodology
A. Null Hypothesis: The null hypothesis is a
Hypothesis being tested about the
population parameter.
• Generally, null hypothesis means no difference
between the true and expected value. It is
denoted by Ho
• A type of hypothesis used in statistics that
proposes that no statistical significance exists
in a set of given observations.
• The null hypothesis attempts to show that no
variation exists between variables, or that a
single variable is no different than zero.
B. Alternative Hypothesis:
• Any hypothesis which is complementary of
null Hypothesis is called alternative
Hypothesis.
Or Alternative Hypothesis means difference
between the true and expected value.
• It is denoted by H1 .
 E.g. Null & Alternative Hypotheses
• H0 Null Hypothesis states the Assumption to be
tested
• E.g. SBP of participants = 120 (H0: m = 120).

• H1 Alternative Hypothesis is the opposite of the null

hypothesis
E.g. SBP of participants ≠ 120 (H1: m ≠ 120).
• It may or may not be accepted and it is the
hypothesis that is believed to be true by the
researcher.
 level of significance
levels of significance :
• The probability of a false rejection of the
null hypothesis in a statistical test is called
levels of significance.
• Also it is called significance level. or
• The significance level of a test is the
probability that the test statistic will reject the
null hypothesis when the [hypothesis] is true.
• It is denoted by  .
 Level of Significance, 
 Typical values are 0.01, 0.05,.10, 25…..
 Provides the Critical Value(s) of the Test
 Risk of drawing a wrong conclusion (called
p-value or observed significance level) can
be calculated
 Researcher decides the maximum risk
(called significance level) he is ready to take
 Level of Significance, a and the
Rejection Region
Critical
 Value(s)

Rejection Regions

E.g. A level of significance of p=0.05 means that there is

a 95% probability that the results found in the study are
the result of a true relationship/difference between groups
being compared. It also means that there is a 5% chance
that the results were found by chance alone and no
true relationship exists between groups.
 P Value
• Called Observed Level of Significance
• The probability that we reject the null hypothesis
while it is true
• Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic More
Extreme  or ) than Actual Sample Value Given
H0 Is True
• Used to Make Rejection Decision
– If p value  Do Not Reject H
0
– If p value <, Reject H
0
Note: P value greater than 0.05 means that no
effect was observed.
 Confidence level (CI)
• The selection of a confidence level for an interval
determines the probability that the confidence interval
produced will contain the true parameter value. It is
denoted by 1- a
• Commonly choices for the confidence level are 0.90,
0.95, and 0.99.
E.g. 95% CI means that if we were to take 100 different
samples and compute a 95% confidence interval for
each sample, then approximately 95 of the 100
confidence intervals will contain the true mean value
(μ).
 Confidence Interval

α/2 α/2
1-α

Z-axis p
SE SE

95%Confidence Interval
 Type of error:
• When the test procedure is applied to test the Ho
against H1 .
• We find two type of error.
 we reject Ho when Ho is true
 we accept Ho when Ho is false.
I. Type First error :
The error committed in rejecting Ho when Ho is true
is called type first error . The Probability of
committing type first error is called size of the type
or size of the critical region is denoted by α
α =prob. (type first error )
=prob.( Reject Ho when Ho is true)
II. Type II error:
• The error committed in accepting Ho when Ho
is false is called type II error . The prob. Of
committing type II error is denoted by β and
defined by
• β =prob. ( Type II errors )
• =prob. (Accept Ho when Ho is false)
 Hypothesis Testing
Test Result – Accept H0 Reject H0

True State
H0 True Correct Type I Error
Decision
H0 False Type II Error Correct
Decision

 P (Type I Error )  P (Type II Error )

• Goal: Keep , reasonably small
 Power of test
• Power of test is denoted by 1-β.
• Power = 1-β = P( reject H0 | H1 true )
• The power of a test is the probability of
rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false;
in other words, it is the probability of avoiding
a type II error.
Step of testing of Hypothesis
Cont….
 Cont….

Calculated value > tabulated

Calculated value, reject H0 or p value < 
value ≤ tabulated value,
Reject H0 i.e Significant
accept H0 or p value 
Accept H0
Different Statistical Test
 Z-test
Significance of

Test for mean Test for proportion

Significance Significance Significance Significance

of single of double of single of double
mean proportion proportion
mean
 Condition of Z-test
 Z-tests are often applied in large samples (n >
30).
 Z-tests always use normal distribution and
also ideally applied if the population standard
deviation is known.
 References
• K Park, Social and preventive medicine (latest
edition)