Game Theory and Competitive Strategy
Game Theory and Competitive Strategy
COMPETITIVE STRATEGY
CHAPTER 14
Topics to be Discussed
An Overview of Game Theory.
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
Dominant Strategies
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
Static Games
Dynamic Games
Sequential Games
Threats, Commitments, and Credibility
Entry Deterrence
What is Game Theory?
Game theory - a set of tools that economists,
political scientists, military analysts and others
use to analyze decision making by players who
use strategies
Game - any competition between players (firms)
in which strategic behavior plays a major role.
any situation in which players (the participants) make
strategic decisions
Ex: firms competing with each other by setting
prices, group of consumers bidding against each
other in an auction
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
Game theory tries to determine optimal strategy
for each player
Strategy is a rule or plan of action for playing the
game
Optimal strategy for a player is one that maximizes
the expected payoff
We consider players who are rational – they think
through their actions
Players take into account the possible actions of other
players.
An Overview of Game Theory (cont).
Firm B, Player 2
Don’t
Advertise Advertise
Firm A, Player 1
Don’t
Advertise 6,8 10,2
Don’t
6,8 20,2
Advertise
Example: The Modified Advertising Game
Firm B, Player 2
Don’t
Advertise Advertise
Firm A, Player 1
Advertise
10,5 15,0
Don’t
Advertise
6,8 20,2
Don’t
Advertise
6,8 20,2
Crispy
-5, -5 10, 10
Firm 1
Crispy
-5, -5 10, 10
Firm 1
Firm 2
Crispy Sweet
Crispy
-5, -5 10, 10
Firm 1
• Does either firm have a dominant strategy in the static game (i.e. if
the two firms make their decision simultaneously)? Explain
Pure strategy - each player chooses an action with
certainty; player makes a specific choice or takes a
specific action
assigns a probability of 1 to a single action.
Multiple Nash Equilibria, No Nash Equilibrium, and
Mixed Strategies
Mixed Strategy
• Player makes a random choice among two or more possible
Heads -1, 1 1, -1
Player 1
Tails 1, -1 -1, 1
35
Matching Pennies
Player 2
Heads Tails
For any fixed strategy of Player 2
such that Player 1 knows what 2
Heads -1, 1 1, -1
will play, Player 1 will play the
other side of the coin. Likewise,
Player 1
for any fixed strategy of Player 1
such that Player 2 knows what 1 Tails 1, -1 -1, 1
intends to play, Player 2 will play
the same side of the coin.
Edward and Bella only get a positive payoff when they’re doing the
same activity together. However, Bella prefers shopping, and
Edward prefers watching football match.
Battle of the Edward and Bella
Edward- Player 2
Football
Shopping
Match
period)
a player has perfect information about other
players’ previous moves.
Firms can signal or threaten other firms
Action vs Strategy
Action is a move that the player makes at a specified point, e.g. how much output firm produces during a
specific period
A strategy is a battle of plan that specifies actions that the player will take conditional on the information
available to each player. If the other player does this we should do this.
Sequential Game
two-stage game - is played once and hence can be
said to occur in a “single period.”
In the first stage, Player 1 moves.
In the second stage, Player 2 moves and the game
ends with the players’ receiving payoffs based on their
actions.
Sequential Game
Sub game –At a given stage, a sub game consists of
all the subsequent decisions that players may
make given the actions already taken
Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium - players’
strategies are a Nash equilibrium in every
subgame.
Backward induction - first determine the best
response by the last player to move, next
determine the best response for the player who
made the next to-last move, then repeat the
process back to the move at the beginning of the
game
Sequential or Dynamic Games
The game is solved by looking first at period 2, then making decision for period 1. This is
referred to as “backward induction.”
Firm 1 gets a higher payoff from sweet, so firm 1 chooses “sweet” and firm 2 chooses
“crispy.” This is the subgame perfect Nash Equilibrium.
In this game, there is a first mover advantage. The firm that gets to go first does better.
Stackelberg Game Tree
Sequential Game
How should American, the leader, select its output
in the first stage?
For each possible quantity it can produce, American
predicts what United will do and picks the output level
that maximizes its own profit.
The subgame perfect Nash equilibrium requires
players to believe that their opponents will act
optimally—in their own best interests.
Credibility.
Why doesn’t American announce that it will
produce the Stackelberg leader’s output to induce
United to produce the Stackelberg follower’s
output level?
when the firms move simultaneously, United doesn’t
believe American’s warning that it will produce a large
quantity, because it is not in American’s best interest
to produce that large a quantity of output.
Credibility.
Credible threat - an announcement that a firm will
use a strategy harmful to its rival and that the rival
believes because the firm’s strategy is rational in
the sense that it is in the firm’s best interest to use
it
Identical firms that move simultaneously can’t
credibly threaten each other.
Threats are credible is firms are different such as one
firms ability to act before the other.
Strategic Moves
• In the game as is, there are two pure strategy Nash Eq’a: Firm 1 Sweet, Firm 2
Crispy, and Firm 2 Sweet, Firm 1 Crispy
• For Firm 1 to make a “strategic move”, it must constrain its behavior to the extent
Firm 2 is convinced that he is committed to “sweet” if he is to get the payoff of 20.
– This in fact changes the game from the structure presented above, making it into a dynamic
game where the strategic move is taken in the first period, and likely changing the payoffs
from those above.
Strategic Moves
Firm 2
Crispy Sweet
High price
(accommodation) 100, 20 200, 0
Incumbent (I)
(Firm 1)
Low Price
(warfare)
70, -10 130, 0
High price
(accommodation) 50, 20 150, 0
Incumbent (I)
Low price
(warfare) 70, -10 130, 0
Entry game
Challenger
Challenger’s strategies
In In Out
Out
Incumbent
Incumbent’s strategies
Accommodate A F 1, 2
Fight
Payoffs 2, 1 0, 0
Normal-form representation
Incumbent
Accommodate Fight
In 2 , 1 0 , 0
Challenger
Out 1 , 2 1 , 2
Nash equilibria in entry game
Challenger
• Two Nash equilibria
( In, Accommodate ) In Out
( Out, Fight ) Incumbent
A F 1, 2
• Does the second Nash
equilibrium make sense? 2, 1 0, 0
• Non-creditable threats
Incumbent
Accommodate Fight
In 2 , 1 0 , 0
Challenger
Out 1 , 2 1 , 2
Find Subgame Perfect Nash equilibria:
Backward Induction
• Starting with those smallest subgames
• Then move backward until the root is reached
• Backward induction outcome is…
Challenger: IN, Incumbent: ACCOMODATES
Challenger
In Out
Incumbent
A F 1, 2
The first number is the payoff
of the challenger. The second
2, 1 0, 0 number is the payoff of the
incumbent.
Repeated Game
Static games that are repeated - in each period,
there is a single stage:
Both players move simultaneously.
Player 1’s move in period t precedes
Player 2’s move in period t + 1; hence, the earlier action
may affect the later one.
The players know all the moves from previous periods,
but they do not know each other’s moves within any
one period because they all move simultaneously.
Repeated Game
Suppose now that the airlines’ single-period
prisoners’ dilemma game is repeated quarter after
quarter.
If they play a single-period game, each firm takes its
rival’s strategy as a given and assumes that it cannot
affect that strategy.
Scenario
Two competitors, Y and C, selling soft drinks
Beach is 200 yards long
Sunbathers are spread evenly along the beach
Price A= Price B
Customer will buy from the closest vendor
Where will they locate? What is the Nash
equilibrium?
Beach Location Game
100 yds
0 B? A? 200 yards
NO!!!!
Beach Location Game
100 yds
0 B? A? 200 yards
100 yds
0 B? A? 200 yards
The Nash Equilibrium is where both A and B are located
at the 100 yard mark, where customers are divided
50/50. If they’re both at 100 yard mark, any movement
will cause the mover to lose customers—i.e. there’s no
profitable deviation. (To convince yourself, consider any
set of locations for A and B NOT at the center, and you’ll
see that there’s a profitable deviation.)
This type of model is also used for politics. Politicians
move toward the political “center” to attract the most
votes. (Downs Model c. 1957)