Topic 5 Risk and Capital Budgeting to Print
Topic 5 Risk and Capital Budgeting to Print
Specific issues
Describe risk and return concepts
Measuring risk and return for a single
security
Portfolio risk and return
Diversification
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and
APT
1
RETURN
Defn: Is a any gain (or loss) from an investment of any sort.
Components
Income component: Is the cash received directly while you own your
investment.
Capital gain or Capital loss on your investment: Refers to the asset
due to change in price or the part arises from changes in the value of your
investment.
Expression of Return:
Can be expressed in amount form or in percentage form.
2
General Formula for Return
Return = Dividend received + Capital gain (loss)
Or
You can make it when if the price had dropped to say, $34.78, you would
have a capital loss of:
Capital loss = ($34.78-37) x 100 = -$222
Qn: What is a total cash if stock is sold? Cross check vs stock sale+dividends.
4
Solution: In percentage
Note that the expression in % is more convenient as it summarizes
information rather than in amount terms. This is because we are much
interested on how much do we get for each Tsh/$ we invest rather how
much we actually invest.
Thus: two parts are involved- Dividend Yield and Capital gain(loss) Yield.
Dividend Yield- expressing the dividend as a percentage of the beginning
stock price. D/Po x100 = $1.85/37 *100 = 5%
This implies that, for each dollar we invest we get five cents in dividends.
Capital gains Yield- Change in the price during the year divided by the
beginning price. Ie. (P1-P0)/P0 x100 = ($40.33-37)/37*100 = 9%.
So, per dollar invested , we get nine cents in capital gain. In totality we get
14 cents
5
Unrealized Capital gain/loss
Suppose you hold your stock and don’t sell it at the end of the year.
Should you consider the capital gain as part of your return?
The answer is Yes, this is because the capital gain is every bit as
much a part of your return as the dividend, you should certainly count
it as part of your return. Decision to keep the stock and not to sell
(you don’t realize the gain) is irrelevant because you could have
converted it to cash if you had wanted to, Whether you choose to so
or not is up to you.
6
Variability of Return
Return of an asset can be viewed into two aspects: Historical returns and
Projected returns.
Variability means the dispersion of returns from its mean or average score.
Or is the deviation of actual returns from average return in a particular time.
Actually, this measures how volatile/unpredictability the return is.
8
Class Task : Table 2
9
Risk
Risk is defined as the possibility that actual future returns deviate from
expected returns. It represents the variability of returns. Or is defined
as the possibility that the actual cash flows (returns) will be different
from forecasted cash flows (returns).
Measures of Risk
There are many ways, but common methods are
1. Standard deviation – Coefficient of Variability
2. Beta coefficient
3. Subjective estimates/Sensitivity analysis
10
Concepts of Risk
• Risk is the variability of actual return from the
expected return associated with a given asset.
• Sensitivity analysis is behavioral approach to
assess risk using a number of possible return
estimates to obtain a sense of variability among
outcomes.
• Range is measure of risk which is found by
subtracting pessimistic (worst) outcome from
optimistic (best) outcome.
11
Concepts of Risk
• Probability is the chance that a given outcome
will occur.
• Probability distribution is a model that relates
probabilities to the associated outcome.
• Expected value is the most likely return on a
given asset/security. Or, is an average return or
simply equal to the sum of possible returns
multiplied by their probabilities. Sum of Ri * Pi.
• Standard deviation of return/risk refers to the
dispersion of returns around an expected value.
12
Concepts of Risk
13
Computations of the Concepts of Risk
• Sensitivity analysis
15
Dispersion of returns (SD)
This is done by computing Variance or
Standard deviation.
Example. For stock L
Var = (-0.2-0.25)2 *0.5 + (0.7-0.25)2 *0.5
= 0.2025
SD = Square root of Var = 0.45*100= 45%
16
Standard Deviation
19
Portfolio Risk cont..
• A portfolio is a bundle or a combination of individual assets or
securities.
• Portfolio theory provides a normative approach to investors to
make decisions to invest their wealth in assets or securities
under risk. It is based on the assumption that investors are
risk-averse. This implies that investors hold well-diversified
portfolios instead of investing the entire wealth in a single
asset or security. Also, the theory works under the assumption
that returns of securities are normally distributed. This mean
that the mean (the expected value) and variance (or standard
deviation) analysis is the foundation of the portfolio decisions.
20
PORTFOLIO RETURN: TWO-ASSET CASE
21
Expected Rate of Return: Example
Suppose you have an opportunity of investing your wealth
either in asset X or asset Y. The possible outcomes of two
assets in different states of economy are as follows:
24
Example
Deviation from Product of
State of Expected Deviation &
Economy Probability Returns Returns Probability
X Y X Y
A 0.1 –8 14 – 13 6 – 7.8
B 0.2 10 –4 5 – 12 – 12.0
C 0.4 8 6 3 –2 – 2.4
D 0.2 5 15 0 7 0.0
E 0.1 –4 20 –9 12 – 10.8
E(RX) E(RY) Covar = –33.0
=5 =8
25
Example
The standard deviation of securities X and Y are as follows:
- 33.0 - 33.0
Corxy = = = - 0.746
5.80 ´ 7.63 44.25
27
Correlation
28
Correlation
29
Variance and Standard Deviation of a
Two-Asset Portfolio
30
Minimum Variance Portfolio
31
Portfolio Risk Depends on
Correlation between Assets
• Investing wealth in more than one security reduces portfolio risk.
• This is attributed to diversification effect.
• However, the extent of the benefits of portfolio diversification
depends on the correlation between returns on securities.
• When correlation coefficient of the returns on individual securities
is perfectly positive then there is no advantage of diversification.
The weighted standard deviation of returns on individual
securities is equal to the standard deviation of the portfolio.
• Diversification always reduces risk provided the correlation
coefficient is less than 1.
32
Minimum variance portfolio
• When correlation is positive or negative, the
minimum variance portfolio is given by the
following formula:
33
Investment Opportunity Set:
The n-Asset Case
• An efficient portfolio is one that has the
highest expected returns for a given level of
risk.
• The efficient frontier is the frontier formed by
the set of efficient portfolios.
• All other portfolios, which lie outside the
efficient frontier, are inefficient portfolios.
34
Efficient Portfolios of risky securities
An efficient
portfolio is one
that has the highest
expected returns for
a given level of risk.
The efficient
frontier is the
frontier formed by
the set of efficient
portfolios. All other
portfolios, which lie
outside the efficient
frontier, are
inefficient 35
Diversification
Categories of Risk
Business and Financial risk
Systematic and Unsystematic risk
40
Unsystematic Risk
• Unsystematic risk arises from the unique
uncertainties of individual securities.
• It is also called unique risk.
• These uncertainties are diversifiable if a large
numbers of securities are combined to form well-
diversified portfolios.
• Uncertainties of individual securities in a portfolio
cancel out each other.
• Unsystematic risk can be totally reduced through
diversification.
41
Examples of Unsystematic Risk
42
Total Risk
43
Systematic and unsystematic risk and
number of securities
44
Systematic Risk and Beta
The systematic principle states that the reward for bearing risk depends
only on the systematic risk of an investment. In other words, the
expected return on a risky assets depends only on that asset’s
systematic risk.
46
An example in Table 6
Standard deviation Beta
Security A 40% 0.50
Security B 20 1.5
47
Beta Estimation
48
Portfolio Betas
Portfolio beta is the summation attained by multiplying each asset’s beta
by its portfolio weight. It is calculated like the expected portfolio return.
Looking in Table 6, suppose you invest half of your money in AT&T and
an half in General Motors. What would the beta of the combination be?
Solution: βp = 0.50 x βAT&T + 0.5 x βGM
= 0.50 x 0.90 +0.50 x 1.15
= 1.025.
So, Portfolio beta = Σ Wi * βi
Where: Wi = proportion of an asset in the portfolio,
βi = beta of the asset.
49
Class Work in Table 7
• Given the following investment information perform the following
questions.
• What are return and beta of this portfolio?
• Does this portfolio have more or less systematic risk than the average
asset?
Ans: 14.9% vs 1.16; Because beta is larger than 1, then the portfolio has
greater systematic risk than an average asset.
50
Beta and Risk Premium
Note that a risk free by definition has no systematic risk or
unsystematic risk. So, it has a beta of zero.
Remember that we can calculate the expected portfolio return
and beta given the mix of an asset and risk free.
Suppose an asset A has expected return of 20%, beta 1.6, risk
free 8%. If 25% of portfolio is invested in asset A, then the
expected portfolio returns are 11% and 0.4 for beta.
Note that, when you mix an investment asset with a free asset
investment, it is possible for the % invested to exceed 100%.
Suppose an investor has $100 and borrows an addition of $50
at 8%, the risk free rate. Then, the total investment in a
particular asset say A is $150, or 150% of the investor’s wealth.
So, the portfolio return and beta can be calculated as follows:51
Beta and Risk Premium
From the above data we can determine the Reward-To-Risk Ratio which is
the slope of the straight line of the Portfolio Expected return against Portfolio
Beta. Note that the slope is just the risk premium on Asset A.
Slope = (E(RA) – Rf)/ βA = (20% - 8%) / 1.6 =7.5%.
The result tells us that asset A offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 7.5%. In other
words, asset A has a risk premium of 7.50 percent per unit of systematic risk.
The Basic Argument:
Suppose we consider a second asset, asset B with beta of 1.2 and expected
return of 16%. Which investment is better btn A or B? You can get the
answer based on reward to risk ratio.
Eg. If we put 25% in asset B and remaining 75% in risk free asset, then
portfolio return and beta will be 10% vs 0.30. Then, adopt the previous
example in Table 7.
Slope = (E(RA) – Rf)/ βA = (16% - 8%) / 1.2 = 6.67%.
53
Beta and Risk Premium
Note that, the comparison for asset A and B depends on the whether they
are subjected in the same situation. In other words, they could bear the
same results if they are in situation of active, competitive, and well
functioning markets. In that situation slopes are the same.
Slope = (E(RA) – Rf)/ βA = (E(RA) – Rf)/ βA :
This mean that reward-to-risk ratio must be the same for all the assets in the
market.
55
A Risk-Free Asset and A Risky Asset:
Example
RISK-RETURN ANALYSIS FOR A PORTFOLIO OF A RISKY AND A RISK-FREE SECURITIES
120 – 20 17 7.2
100 0 15 6.0
80 20 13 4.8
60 40 11 3.6
40 60 9 2.4
20 80 7 1.2
0 100 5 0.0
20
Expected Return
D
17.5
C
15
B
12.5
10 A
7.5
5
2.5 Rf, risk-free rate
0
0 1.8 3.6 5.4 7.2 9
Standard Deviation
56
The Security Market Line (SML)
Is the line that describe the relationship between systematic risk and
expected return in financial markets. In other words, is a positively sloped
straight line displaying the relationship between expected return and beta.
That is the relation is said to be linear.
Market Portfolio:
Suppose we consider a portfolio made up of all the assets in the market,
such portfolio is called a market portfolio.
Because all the assets in the market must plot on the SML, so the market
portfolio must be made of those assets. To determine where it plots on SML
we need to know beta of the market portfolio (βM) which must have the
systematic risk of 1 or beta 1. The slope of the SML can be expressed as:
SML slope = (E(RM) – Rf)/ βM = (E(RM) – Rf)/ 1: = E(RM) – Rf
The term E(RM) – Rf is often called the Market risk premium because it is
the risk premium on a market portfolio. 57
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
This model hold an assumption that any asset on the market must
plot/lie on the SML and the reward-to-risk ratio is the same as the
overall market is. That is, slope of any asset in the market can be
compared to return of the market.
Slope = (E(Ri) – Rf)/ βi = (E(RM) – Rf): By arranging
60
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)
APT involves factor model approach. Unlike CAPM, which is single factor
model that entails only beta, Factor Models suggest that the security returns
are generated by a set of underlying factors, often economic. APT or Roll-
Ross Model suggest that different securities have different sensitivity of these
systematic factors and that the major sources of security are captured in
them. Five factors considered are
1) Changes in expected inflation
2) Unanticipated changes in inflation
3) Unanticipated changes in industrial production
4) Unanticipated changes in the yield differential between low and high
grade bonds
5) Unanticipated changes in the yield differential between long-term and
short-term bonds
61
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) cont..
• The Roll-Ross Model can be expressed as:
• (E)R = 0 + 1(b1jE inflation) + 2(b2jU
inflation) + 3(b3jU industrial production) +
4(b4jU bond risk premium) + 5(b5jU long
minus short rate).
• Where s is the market prices of various risks,
1 is the response coefficients for specific
security returns to changes in the factor.
62
Examples
1) XY company has a beta of 1.25. The risk free rate is 8% and
expected return on the market portfolio is 15%. What is the
expected return using CAPM without extension? Ans 16.75%
64