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7 - Probability

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دانه ماما
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5 views

7 - Probability

Uploaded by

دانه ماما
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 17

What are the

Chances?
PROBABILITY
Prepared by: Danah A. Mama, RPm
What is Probability?
Understanding probability as a measure of the likelihood of an
event occurring.

Types of Probability
 Theoretical: Based on mathematical and reasoning and
models.
 Empirical: Derived from observed data through
experiments or real-life occurrences.

As the conditions change, so does the probability.


Calculating Probability
Addition Rule of
Calculating the probability of either of two mutually exclusive events
Probability occurring.

Example: the probability of rolling a 2 or a 4 on a die.

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)


Multiplication Rule of
Used for independent events.
Probability
Example: the probability of flipping heads on a coin and rolling a four
on a die is found by multiplying their individual probabilities.

P(A∩B)=P(A) × P(B)
Conditional Probability
Measures the likelihood of event A occurring given that event B has
already occurred. This concept is crucial for understanding
relationships between events.

Where:
• P(A∣B) is the conditional probability of A given B.
• P(A∩B) is the joint probability that both events A and B occur.
• P(B) is the probability that event B occurs, and it must be greater than zero for the formula
to be valid.
Conditional Probability
Example 1: Suppose we have a standard deck of 52 playing cards. We want to find
the probability of drawing an Ace given that the card drawn is a Spade.

Steps:
1. Identify events.
2. Find Relevant Probabilities.
3. Calculate Conditional Probability.
4. Substitute into the Formula
5. Simplify.
Answer:
The probability of drawing an Ace given that the card drawn is a Spade is 1/13.
Conditional Probability
Example 2: You want to find the probability that a randomly selected person has
a cough (event A) given that they are sick (event B). If:

• The probability of a person being sick and having a cough is P(A∩B)=0.75.


• The probability of being sick is P(B)=0.80.

Then, the conditional probability would be calculated as follows:


P(A∣B)= 0.75 / 0.80
P(A∣B)= 0.9375

This means there is a 93.75% chance that a person who is sick also has a cough.
Probability in Graphs
• The probability is equal to the
proportion of the chart taken up
by that section.
• We can also add slices together.
• The total area of the chart is
equal to 100% or 1.0, which
makes the size of the slices
interpretable.
Probability in Normal
Distributions
• Areas under the normal
curve are probabilities that
correspond to z-scores.
Probability in Normal
• Just like a pie chart is broken up
Distributions
into slices by drawing lines
through it, we can also draw a
line through the normal
distribution to split it into
sections.
• Body and tail: Bigger is
always Body
Z-Table
• The z-table presents the values for the area under the curve
to the left of the positive z-scores from 0.00-3.00 (technically
3.09), as indicated by the shaded region of the distribution at
the top of the table.

How to find the appropriate value?


1. Find the row corresponding to our z-score.
2. Then follow it over until we get to the column that
corresponds to the number in the hundredths place of our
z-score.
Z-Table
• Example: We want to find the
area in the body for a z-score
of 1.62.
• Thus, the odds of randomly
selecting someone with a z-score
less than (to the left of) z = 1.62 is
94.74% because that is the
proportion of the area taken up
by values that satisfy our criteria.
Z-Table
• The z-table only presents the area in the body for positive z-scores
because the normal distribution is symmetrical.
• The table also only presents the area in the body because the total area
under the normal curve is always equal to 1.00

Tip
When in doubt, drawing out your distribution and shading the area you
need to find will always help.
Let’s try this one!
Find the area corresponding to z scores more extreme than z =
-1.96 and z = 1.96.
Area between z=0.50 and z=1.50

• We can find the area between two z-


scores by shading and subtracting.

How?
1. Find the area of the larger of
the two bodies.
2. Subtract the area of the
smaller of the two bodies.
Conclusion
 The probability that an event happens is the number of outcomes that qualify as that event (i.e. the number of
ways the event could happen) compared to the total number of outcomes (i.e. how many things are possible).
 This extends to graphs like a pie chart, where the biggest slices take up more of the area and are therefore more
likely to be chosen at random.
 This idea then brings us back around to our normal distribution, which can also be broken up into regions or
areas, each of which are bounded by one or two z-scores and correspond to all z scores in that region. The
probability of randomly getting one of those z-scores in the specified region can then be found on the Standard
Normal Distribution Table.
 Thus, the larger the region, the more likely an event is, and vice versa. Because the tails of the distribution are,
by definition, smaller and we go farther out into the tail, the likelihood or probability of finding a result out in the
extremes becomes small.

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