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06 Continuous Probability Distributions - Part 1

Chapter 6 of BUSAN 220 covers Continuous Probability Distributions, focusing on continuous random variables and the uniform distribution. It distinguishes between discrete and continuous variables, explains the concept of continuous random variables, and introduces the uniform distribution with examples. The chapter also includes exercises to calculate probabilities related to continuous uniform distributions.

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3 views

06 Continuous Probability Distributions - Part 1

Chapter 6 of BUSAN 220 covers Continuous Probability Distributions, focusing on continuous random variables and the uniform distribution. It distinguishes between discrete and continuous variables, explains the concept of continuous random variables, and introduces the uniform distribution with examples. The chapter also includes exercises to calculate probabilities related to continuous uniform distributions.

Uploaded by

nicksalzwedel123
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BUSAN 220: Intro to Business Statistics

Chapter 6:
Continuous Probability Distributions
(Part 1)

Hyeonsik Shin
[email protected]
Remaining Schedule
Table of Content
6.1 Continuous Random Variables and the
Uniform Distribution
6.2 The Normal Distribution
Review of Quiz 5 and Homework 5
6.3 Other Continuous Probability Distributions
Review of Discrete Variable, Continuous
Variable
Among numerical variables,
• Discrete variable: A variable that assumes a
countable number of values
– For example, the number of children, electronic devices

• Continuous variable: A variable that assumes


uncountable values in an interval
– For example, weight, height, arrival time, …
Overview of Chapters 5 and 6

Outcomes Probability
Experiment
(Random Variable) Distribution

1
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) =
6
Discrete Distribution
(Ch 5)

𝑃 ( 8 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 10 )
Continuous
How long do you sleep per day?
Distribution (Ch 6)
Types of
Continuous Probability Distribution

Uncountable Uniform Distribution


Continuous
Outcomes
Probability
(Continuous Random
Distribution
Variable)

Normal Distribution
6.1 Continuous Random Variables and the
Uniform Distribution
Events with Continuous Outcomes

Waiting time for a bus Swimming Lap Time Number of hours slept per
night

• What is common in these events?


– Possible outcomes are continuous numbers
Example
• Experiment: Guessing the arrival time for an
Amazon delivery
• “Your package will be delivered between 1:00pm-
3:00pm.”
• Possible outcomes: Any time between 1:00pm-
3:00pm (continuous values)
Continuous Random Variable
• Experiment is guessing the arrival time of your
Amazon package
• : Continuous random variable (an outcome of my
experiment)
• : A value that a random variable can take (1:01pm,
1:02pm, 1:02:59pm, …)
Different Shapes of
Continuous Distributions
• Uniform Distribution
– Very easy to calculate

• Normal Distribution (Next lecture)


– We’ll use the Z-score
What if there is an equally likely chance for
all ?
Probability

0.5

Time
1:00pm 3:00pm

• Between 1:00pm and 3:00pm, there is an equally likely


chance of 0.5
• Distribution becomes a straight line!
 Uniform Distribution
Uniform Distribution
• Probability distribution in which the underlying
random variable () has an equally likely chance of
assuming a value () within a specified range

(Probability of X)𝑓 ( 𝑥)

1 𝑓 (𝑥 )=
1
𝑏−𝑎
𝑏−𝑎
This area should be
1

𝑥
𝑎 𝑏
Uniform Distribution
• Probability distribution in which the underlying
random variable () has an equally likely chance of
assuming a value () within a specified range

(Probability of X)𝑓 ( 𝑥)

0.5  It is always 0.5


This area is

Arrival Time
1 3
Probability of a Random Variable
Table 5.1 Probability Distribution for Rolling a Die
1 2 3 4 5 6
Discrete 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667
Random
Variable • Probability Mass Function
• For example,

Continuous • Probability Density Function


Random
Variable • We use an interval.
• For example,
Calculating the Probability of a Continuous
Random Variable
• How can we calculate ?
• We calculate the area under the graph of the
probability density function,
Calculating the Probability of a Continuous
Random Variable
• You’re expecting an Amazon package between
1:00pm-3:00pm. What is the probability that
your package arrives between 1:00pm-2:00pm?
Assume a uniform distribution.
Exercise 1
• Sales for a particular cosmetic line follow a
continuous uniform distribution with a lower limit of
$2,500 and an upper limit of $5,000. Compute the p
in the following graph.

Answer:

𝑝
𝑃(2500≤ 𝑋≤5000)=1
Exercise 2
• What is the probability that the sales exceed
$4,000?

1
𝑃 ( 40 00 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5000 )=1 000 × =0.4
2500
1
2500
Exercise 3
• What is the probability that the sales are
between $3,200 and $3,800?

1
𝑃 ( 32 00 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 38 00 )=6 00 × =0.24
2500
1
2500
Summary
• Continuous random variable
• Probability Mass Function vs. Probability
Density Function
• Continuous Uniform Distribution
Next Step
• Student Hours
– Mondays & Wednesdays
– Location: 470D in Wood Hall
– 12:20pm-1:20pm
– 3:35pm-4:35pm

• Quiz 6 and Homework 6


– Due Monday (Nov 18)

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