|1

Vietnam
Booming year
2025 ?

Trần Thăng Long, phd

BIDV Securities Company (BSC)
 Presentation Map |2

0 1
I. Vietnam economy 2025 – Doi Moi 2.0 II. Vietnam Stock Market 2025 - New opportunities New challenges
3 8
0
1. Key Notes of Vietnam Macroeconomy 2025 1. Key Notes 19
4
0
2. Double Digit growth 2. VN-Index forecast 20
5
0
3. The Population Structure and the Growing Middle Class 3. Valuation 21
6
0
4. Vietnam invest in infrastructure (North – South) 4. Liquidity and trading structure 26
8
0
5. Vietnam invest in infrastructure (Power, Airport, Ring road, metro) 5. What Role Will Foreign Investors Play in 2025? 23
9
1
6. Monthly macro heatmap until 2024 6. BSC’s forecast on the market upgrade process 24
0
1 III 2
7. Vietnam macro economy forecast Appendix
1 . 5
1
8. Monetary policy – Inflation is likely under the control in 2025 1. At which stage is Vietnam in the reform process to upgrade its market 26
2 classification?
1
9. Monetary policy – Can SBV sustain an environment of low interest rat 2. Developments in foreign capital flows in Asian countries after being u 27
e? 3 pgraded by FTSE
1
10. Fiscal policy: Public investment will be expected to spread to the wh 3. Developments in foreign capital flows in Asian countries after being u 28
ole economy 4 pgraded by MSCI
1
11. Exchange Rates and Import-Export 4. What Role Will Foreign Investors Play in 2025? 29
5
1
12. FDI & PMI 5. Locals have cash coming and are buying what? 30
6
1
13. Corporate bond market 6. Margin in the market 31
7
 |3

Vietnam Economy 2025

Full Speed ?
Key Notes of Vietnam Macroeconomy 2024 - 2025 |4

Fiscal policy
Be promoted strongly
Increasing budget spending (decrease VAT, increase
base salary...) + public investment in infrastructure
GDP 2024
Monetary policy $476 billion CPI 2024
Maintain easing
CPI is well under control
+7.09% avg +3.63%

Exports vs Imports Export 2024

Uncertainty due to Trump
2.0
Be affected by Trump’s trade policies
$405
billion+14.32%
Manufacturing and FDI
In line with import & Export Import 2024
Be affected by Trump’s trade policies
$380
Restructuring FDI 2024
billion+16.67%
Corp Bond & real estate $25.4 billion
market
In 2024, total maturity value of Real Estate ~ 149,000
billion VND ~ 43% total maturity value of the bond +9.35%
market Presentation Map
Double Digit growth 2025-2030 ? |5

Presentation Map
 Double Digit growth |6

GDP = C + I + G +
(EX – IM)​
Prioritize promoting growth

Consumption Investment Gov Spending EX-IM

Presentation Map Source: Dragon Capital

The Population Structure and the Growing Middle Class push
consumption |7

The population structure The middleclass growth

Source: World Data Lab

Vietnam is the 14th largest country by population with 101 million people (+1% annually), 98.8% literacy,
and 60% in working age. Following the growth of GDP and GDP per capita (~$4,600), the middle class is
expected to increase by 23,2 million by 2030 (the fastest growing country by World data lab)
Presentation Map
Vietnam invest in infrastructure (North – South) |8

High Speed train Highway

~$67 billion in 1.541 km high speed ~$15 billion in 3000/5000 km

train highway
Presentation Map
by 2035 by 2030
Vietnam invest in infrastructure (Power, Airport, Ring road, metro) |9

$16.3 billion in 100 million $7 billion in 2 Ring Roads of Hanoi

passengers Airport by 2050 ( and HCM City by 2027 ($2-3 billion
first investment $6bill until 2025) until now)

$9.6 billion in First Nuclear Power $14+21 billion in 98+183 km metro

plan in Hanoi and HCM City by 2030 ($
Presentation Map
 Streamline and reorganize the organizational structure |10

Ministries and ministerial-level agencies Arrangement and consolidation

8 units arranged and streamlined internal Name after

Management functions
organization consolidation
Ministry of Planning Sectors and fields currently
Ministry of Finance
and Investment assigned to the Ministry of
and Investment
and Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of
Development
Finance Planning and Investment
Ministry of Sectors and fields currently
Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of
Transport and assigned to the Ministry of
National Public Justice Industry and Infrastructure
Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of
Defense Security Trade Development
Construction Construction

Sectors and fields currently

assigned to the Ministry of
Ministry of Natural Natural Resources and
Resources and Ministry of Environment and the Ministry
Ministry of Government Government State Bank of Environment and Agriculture and of Agriculture and Rural
Culture, Office Inspectorate Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources Development, overcoming
Sports and Agriculture and and Environment some assignments in the
Tourism Rural Development implementation of water
Committee for Ministry of Foreign resource management tasks,
Ethnic Affairs Affairs river basins and biodiversity
- Receives the Government Committee on
Religion; - Receives the main tasks of the Central Foreign
Affairs Commission, the National Assembly Ministry of Sectors and fields currently
- Receives functions and tasks on poverty
reduction from the Ministry of Labour, Invalids Foreign Affairs Committee Information and Ministry of Science assigned to the Ministry of
and Social Affairs Communications and Technology and Information and
and Ministry of Digital Communications and the
Ministry of Home Science and Transformation Ministry of Science and
Ministry of Health
- Develops a plan to Affairs
merge the National Academy Technology Technology
- Receives some tasks of the Central of Public Administration into the National Academy
of Politics Ho Chi Minh;
Committee for Health Care and Protection; Transferring the state
- Develops a draft plan to merge the Ministry of
- Receives state management on: social
welfare; children; prevention and control of
Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs and the Ministry management function of
of Home Affairs;
social evils transferred from the Ministry of vocational education to the
- Transfers functions and tasks of the Government Ministry of Labor,
Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs Committee on Religion to the Committee for Ministry of Education and
Invalids and Social Ministry of Home
Ethnic Affairs Training Transferring the state
 Monthly macro heatmap until 2024 |11

12/21 01/22 02/22 03/22 04/22 05/22 06/22 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 01/23 02/23 03/23 04/23 05/23 06/23 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/23 11/23 12/23 01/24 02/24 03/24 04/24 05/24 06/24 07/24 08/24 09/24 10/24 11/24 12/24

Retail Sales + Customer Services -3.76% 1.26% 1.66% 4.44% 6.54% 9.69% 11.71% 15.99% 19.29% 21.00% 20.25% 20.50% 19.84% 19.95% 12.97% 13.87% 12.77% 12.55% 10.92% 10.37% 9.97% 9.66% 9.41% 9.65% 9.60% 8.11% 8.05% 8.20% 8.55% 8.65% 8.60% 8.68% 8.46% 8.77% 8.53% 8.82% 8.96%

Retail Sales 0.15% 4.35% 3.10% 5.76% 7.64% 9.83% 11.27% 13.69% 15.43% 15.78% 14.99% 14.75% 14.38% 18.15% 10.09% 11.40% 10.48% 10.74% 9.30% 9.00% 8.72% 8.39% 8.33% 8.55% 8.58% 7.32% 6.77% 6.98% 7.14% 7.42% 7.37% 7.44% 7.32% 7.94% 7.85% 8.09% 8.31%

Hospitalisty -19.32% -11.95% -1.76% 1.18% 5.15% 15.75% 20.89% 37.48% 48.11% 54.74% 51.84% 56.47% 52.53% 37.34% 31.57% 28.44% 25.80% 22.10% 18.70% 16.33% 15.64% 16.03% 15.05% 15.34% 14.71% 10.22% 13.97% 13.39% 15.32% 15.06% 15.19% 15.15% 14.32% 13.57% 12.46% 13.02% 12.95%

Travelling -59.90% -35.65% -10.95% 1.86% 10.53% 34.70% 94.41% 166.13% 240.08% 294.87% 291.59% 306.52% 271.50% 113.43% 124.36% 119.84% 109.42% 89.40% 65.94% 53.61% 47.05% 47.74% 47.57% 50.52% 52.46% 18.50% 35.83% 46.32% 49.29% 45.11% 37.08% 31.82% 26.18% 16.66% 14.23% 17.32% 16.04%

Cumula Other services -16.83% -8.13% -5.87% -2.53% -0.61% 2.54% 5.56% 13.89% 24.23% 34.49% 36.46% 36.84% 36.39% 16.81% 16.19% 17.59% 16.45% 15.76% 14.40% 13.75% 12.59% 11.47% 10.40% 10.57% 10.40% 11.22% 9.71% 9.50% 9.44% 8.80% 8.92% 9.40% 9.38% 9.20% 8.98% 9.05% 8.96%
tive
%YoY Index of Industrial Production 4.76% 2.39% 5.38% 6.44% 7.51% 8.34% 8.73% 8.82% 9.44% 9.59% 9.01% 8.57% 7.76% -8.04% -6.32% -2.25% -1.76% -2.05% -1.20% -0.67% -0.45% 0.29% 0.52% 1.04% 1.46% 18.26% 5.74% 5.67% 5.99% 6.76% 7.72% 8.47% 8.60% 8.64% 8.27% 8.36% 8.35%

Mining -5.81% -4.64% -2.78% 1.00% 2.63% 4.13% 3.93% 3.64% 4.22% 5.04% 5.04% 6.47% 5.45% -4.86% -3.76% -4.45% -2.79% -3.55% -1.67% -1.18% -2.50% -3.01% -3.16% -2.78% -3.90% 7.25% -3.49% -4.13% -4.59% -5.24% -5.47% -6.18% -6.00% -6.45% -7.23% -7.31% -6.49%

Manufacturing 6.01% 2.82% 6.12% 7.04% 8.28% 9.24% 9.66% 9.73% 10.39% 10.36% 9.58% 8.92% 8.04% -9.10% -6.87% -2.37% -2.08% -2.45% -1.60% -1.05% -0.65% 0.21% 0.52% 1.05% 1.63% 19.26% 5.92% 5.88% 6.28% 7.27% 8.45% 9.53% 9.70% 9.87% 9.55% 9.69% 9.63%

Electricity production 4.93% 5.09% 6.49% 7.10% 6.58% 5.52% 6.03% 6.35% 6.80% 7.54% 7.84% 7.68% 7.02% -3.36% -5.16% -0.99% 0.45% 0.82% 1.50% 1.35% 1.72% 2.58% 2.58% 3.20% 3.51% 21.59% 12.18% 12.13% 12.29% 12.65% 13.01% 12.36% 11.60% 11.08% 10.32% 10.18% 9.46%

Water supply 2.72% 1.17% 2.46% 5.25% 1.12% 2.45% 4.08% 4.50% 5.79% 5.56% 6.59% 7.09% 6.43% 3.72% 2.33% 7.83% 5.52% 6.35% 5.40% 6.26% 4.75% 4.88% 5.03% 4.93% 5.78% 5.65% 2.54% 3.98% 5.28% 6.26% 6.26% 7.23% 7.80% 9.91% 9.45% 9.64% 10.74%

PMI 52.5 53.7 54.3 51.7 51.7 54.7 54 51.2 52.7 52.5 50.6 47.4 46.4 47.4 51.2 47.7 46.7 45.3 46.2 48.7 50.5 49.7 49.6 47.3 48.9 50.3 50.4 49.9 50.3 50.3 54.7 54.7 52.4 47.3 51.2 50.8 49.8

Export 18.98% 8.05% 11.85% 13.65% 17.32% 16.90% 17.49% 16.63% 18.30% 17.34% 16.00% 13.41% 10.41% -23.45% -8.96% -11.00% -12.96% -11.79% -11.48% -10.09% -9.67% -8.28% -6.87% -5.72% -4.48% 46.25% 19.30% 17.12% 15.70% 15.57% 15.82% 16.41% 16.34% 15.70% 14.91% 14.45% 14.32%

Import 26.47% 11.30% 16.96% 15.92% 16.90% 16.15% 16.29% 14.57% 14.32% 13.32% 12.50% 10.40% 8.03% -22.05% -16.15% -15.01% -17.53% -17.85% -18.05% -17.26% -15.72% -13.88% -12.03% -10.49% -9.06% 34.60% 17.35% 14.22% 15.42% 17.60% 17.82% 19.02% 18.53% 17.49% 16.85% 16.37% 16.67%

FDI realised -1.20% 6.80% 7.20% 7.80% 7.64% 7.83% 8.85% 10.19% 10.54% 16.17% 15.18% 15.09% 13.45% -16.25% -4.85% -2.17% -1.18% -0.78% -0.37% 0.81% 1.30% 2.25% 2.36% 2.87% 3.50% 9.63% 9.80% 7.08% 7.35% 7.84% 8.19% 8.38% 8.02% 8.94% 8.78% 7.06% 9.35%
Cumulativ
e %YoY FDI registered 15.19% -7.66% -14.01% -21.97% -19.79% -23.31% -13.94% -11.65% -15.01% -18.24% -7.15% -4.63% -6.99% -8.87% -45.59% -41.85% -35.84% -22.48% -19.91% -6.70% -3.33% -0.57% 10.48% 8.66% 24.39% 48.66% 75.61% 34.91% 44.75% 32.85% 43.20% 30.07% 22.78% 22.23% 9.63% 12.26% 9.95%

Credit growth 13.61% 15.56% 15.86% 16.94% 16.95% 17.01% 16.80% 16.40% 16.28% 16.94% 16.59% 14.84% 14.17% 14.29% 12.17% 10.52% 9.70% 9.08% 9.27% 8.96% 9.60% 9.98% 9.88% 11.30% 13.79% 13.01% 11.98% 12.51% 12.67% 13.97% 15.18% 15.01% 15.50% 15.46% 16.62% 16.62% 13.82%

%YoY Total means of payment 10.66% 12.67% 11.58% 12.26% 11.29% 10.27% 9.97% 8.95% 7.86% 7.40% 7.03% 6.42% 6.15% 6.99% 4.60% 3.97% 4.32% 4.84% 6.08% 5.88% 7.56% 8.63% 9.11% 10.63% 12.46% 11.57% 11.50% 11.08% 10.70% 11.11% 11.92% 12.02% 12.55% 11.91% 9.42%

Interest O/N 0.81% 1.39% 2.76% 2.24% 1.89% 1.59% 0.42% 1.78% 3.41% 4.90% 5.86% 5.63% 4.80% 5.57% 5.36% 3.60% 4.54% 4.75% 2.06% 0.31% 0.19% 0.16% 1.17% 0.46% 0.28% 0.20% 2.36% 0.88% 4.03% 4.25% 3.88% 4.64% 4.49% 3.99% 3.62% 4.84% 3.97%

Deposit interest rate 4.95% 5.79% 5.82% 5.82% 5.92% 5.94% 5.94% 6.12% 6.64% 7.30% 8.20% 8.20% 7.86% 7.86% 7.84% 7.56% 7.16% 6.91% 6.63% 6.01% 5.80% 5.40% 5.26% 5.21% 4.73% 4.52% 4.60% 4.72% 4.62% 4.75% 4.85% 4.91% 4.91% 4.92% 4.94% 4.95% 5.00%

Exchange rate -1.18% -1.67% -0.86% -0.99% -0.37% 0.64% 1.19% 1.73% 2.93% 4.83% 9.17% 8.68% 3.54% 3.47% 4.26% 2.78% 2.14% 1.27% 1.29% 1.48% 2.70% 1.86% -1.10% -1.79% 2.69% 4.16% 3.60% 5.62% 8.00% 8.34% 7.94% 6.65% 3.30% 1.08% 0.73% 4.47% 5.01%

CPI core YoY 0.67% 0.66% 0.68% 1.09% 2.64% 1.61% 1.98% 2.63% 3.06% 3.82% 4.47% 4.81% 4.99% 5.21% 4.96% 4.88% 4.56% 4.54% 4.33% 4.11% 4.02% 3.80% 3.43% 3.15% 2.98% 2.72% 2.96% 2.76% 2.79% 2.68% 2.61% 2.61% 2.53% 2.54% 2.68% 2.77% 2.85%
%YoY
CPI YoY 1.81% 1.94% 1.42% 2.41% 1.47% 2.86% 3.37% 3.14% 2.89% 3.94% 4.30% 4.37% 4.55% 4.89% 4.31% 3.35% 2.81% 2.43% 2.00% 2.06% 2.96% 3.66% 3.59% 3.45% 3.58% 3.37% 3.98% 3.97% 4.40% 4.44% 4.34% 4.36% 3.45% 2.63% 2.89% 2.77% 2.94%

State budget disbursement -8.60% 8.62% 10.36% 10.58% 9.12% 9.51% 10.12% 11.92% 16.87% 19.58% 20.05% 19.94% 18.81% 3.17% 18.31% 18.09% 17.86% 18.40% 20.46% 22.09% 23.15% 23.47% 22.62% 22.15% 21.16% 12.49% 2.06% 3.74% 5.94% 4.95% 3.46% 2.28% 1.98% 1.99% 3.46% 2.35% 3.31%

State budget revenue 3.49% 19.54% 12.94% 14.09% 13.35% 20.74% 20.52% 19.89% 20.31% 22.37% 19.60% 17.97% 14.17% 0.11% 11.89% 6.71% 0.02% -4.56% -6.96% -7.08% -6.93% -7.80% -4.53% -6.18% -3.75% 25.75% 10.40% 9.77% 13.63% 16.74% 16.53% 16.93% 18.77% 18.34% 18.33% 17.59% 18.61%
Cumulativ
State budget spending 9.91% 14.36% 10.08% -1.32% 3.16% 1.29% 2.68% 3.96% 4.17% 5.41% 6.07% 7.10% -16.85% 0.88% 6.05% 7.71% 6.40% 10.86% 12.85% 13.56% 13.05% 14.09% 11.30% 10.59% 10.86% 12.18% 7.70% 8.28% 4.38% 0.55% -0.12% -0.91% 2.13% 1.36% 3.15% 3.85% 5.71%
e %YoY

Source: BIDV Securities Company (BSC) compiled

Presentation Map
 Monetary policy – Inflation is likely under control in 2025 |12

CPI: In control in 2025 CPI contributors

Weight (%) Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20 Q4/20 Q2/21 Q4/21 Q2/22 Q4/22 Q2/23 Q4/23 Q2/24 Q4/24
5%
Core inflation 2.56 2.77

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.48 2.87

4%
Food and catering services 33.56 3.98 4.15

Grain food 3.67 11.24 6.31 3%

Foodstuff 21.28 2.85 3.88
0.34%

Outdoor eating and drinking 8.61 3.83 3.88 2% 0.91%

Drinks and tobacco 2.73 2.40 2.33

Textile, footgear and hats 5.70 1.24 1.14 1%

Housing and construction
1.39%
18.82 4.99 4.81
materials

Family appliances and tools 6.74 1.15 1.41 0% -0.05%

-0.24%
Medicaments and health service 5.39 8.24 6.29

Medical service 4.11 10.54 7.91 -1%

Transport 9.67 -0.80 -2.48

Postal and communicational

3.14 -0.74 -0.52
-2%
service
Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22 Q1/23 Q2/23 Q3/23 Q4/23 Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24
Education 6.17 5.45 -0.81

Educational service 5.45 5.85 -1.08 Food and catering services Housing and construction materials
Culture, entertainment and
tourism
4.55 2.21 2.20 Medicaments and health service Transport
Others 3.53 6.94 6.97 Education
Source: BIDV Securities Company (BSC) compiled from
FiinproX, SBV
 Scenario 1 for CPI 2025: +4.44%  Scenario 2 for CPI 2025: +3.18%
 Electricity price +7-8% in 2025  Electricity price +5% in 2025
 Medical examination price +8% in 2025  Medical examination price does not change in 2025
 Tuition fees +7.5% in 2025  Tuition fees do not change in 2025
 Brent price at 92 USD/barrel (Bloomberg high)  Brent price at 74.53 USD/barrel (Bloomberg mean)
 Average pork price at 63,000 VND/kg  Average pork price at 60,000 VND/kg Presentation Map
 Monetary policy – Can SBV sustain low-interest rate environment? |13
Credit Growth
M2 Growth (YTD)
(YTD)
15%
15% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
13% 2024

11%
9.06%
9% 11%
7%
5%
3% 7%

1%
5.10%
-1%
-3% 3%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2019 2020 2021

-1%
2022 2023 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Deposit Growth
Interest Rates
(YTD)
10%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
14% 2024
9%

8%
6.70% 10% 9.06%
7%

6%
5.00% 6%
5%

4%
2%

Low Interest Rates

environment -2%
Deposit rate 12M Lending rate (lowest) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Presentation Map
Source: BIDV Securities Company (BSC) compiled from
FiinproX, SBV
Fiscal policy: Public investment will be expected to spread to the whole economy |14
Public investment disbursement State budget revenue and expenditure
forecast estimate 2025 - 2027
3,000,000
3.80%
800,000
778,564790,727
732,193
3.50%
3.40% 3.39%
2,000,000
3.23%

400,000
1,000,000

-
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025F 2023 2024 2025E 2026F 2027F
Target Public investment disbursed Scenario 1
Scenario 2 Accumulated state budget revenue (LHS) Accumulated state budget expenditure (LHS) Deficit spending compared to GDP (RHS)

State budget revenue and

Gov bond issuance
expenditure
30% 400,000 400,000
25.75%
25%
350,000
20% 18.77% 18.34% 18.27% 18.61%
16.74% 16.53% 16.93% 17.62% 305,000
15% 13.63% 323,953 318,213 324,007
12.18% 260,000 260,000 298,476
10.59% 10.86%

VND trillions
10.24% 9.77%
10% 7.73% 8.28%
5.71% 200,000
4.38% 183,300
%YoY

5% 3.10% 3.85% 214,722

2.13% 1.36%
0.55% 197,769
0% 159,921 165,797
-0.12% -0.91%
-5% -3.75%
-6.18%
-10%
11/23

12/23

01/24

02/24

03/24

04/24

05/24

06/24

07/24

08/24

09/24

10/24

11/24

12/24

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Planned
Issuance Issued value
Accumulated state budget revenue Accumulated state budget expenditure KLPH Dự kiến KL Đã phát hành
value

Presentation Map
 Exchange Rates and Import-Export |15

Exchange rate: Affected by Donald Trump's Trade: The growth is uncertain due to conflicting
policies factors
40% 80,000
Exchange rates YTD 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019
30% 70,000
DXY Index 7.06% -2.11% 8.21% 6.37% -6.69% 0.22%
VND/USD -4.77% -2.62% -3.41% 1.19% 0.32% 0.01% 20%
60,000
0.17
EUR/USD -6.21% 3.11% -5.87% -6.90% 8.95% -2.21% 10%
0.07 50,000
CNY/USD -2.73% -2.84% -7.86% 2.69% 6.68% -1.22%
0%
KRW/USD -12.49% -1.75% -6.05% -8.63% 6.43% -3.49%
40,000
JPY/USD -10.28% -7.03% -12.23% -10.28% 5.19% 0.99% -10%
SGD/USD -3.32% 1.45% 0.71% -1.99% 1.80% 1.26% 30,000
-20%
IDR/USD -4.38% 1.11% -8.45% -1.42% -1.31% 3.78%
20,000
THB/USD 0.13% 1.36% -3.47% -10.34% 0.06% 8.61% -30%

MYR/USD 2.72% -4.14% -5.40% -3.50% 1.76% 1.04% -40% 10,000

PHP/USD -4.25% 0.62% -8.50% -5.81% 5.46% 3.81%

-50% -
Average -3.50% -1.17% -4.76% -3.51% 2.61% 1.16% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F
VND ranking 4 4 9 9 3 4
Trade balance (RHS) Import %YoY (LHS) Export %YoY (LHS)
FX reserves 89.1 88 109 95 79 55 Scen 1 Scen 2
Data updated to Dec 31st, 2024
Source: BIDV Securities Company (BSC) compiled from CSO,
FiinproX

 Factors affecting USD/VND: (1) Recovery of global economy; (2) Fed rate cut  Factors affecting import and export: (1) Donald Trump's tariff policies on imports
decisions; (3) Donald Trump's tariff policies on imports; (4) Geopolitical from Vietnam and China; (2) US-China trade war; (3) Economic growth in
conflicts. Vietnam's export markets under an easing monetary policy environment.
Presentation Map
 FDI & PMI |16

FDI: Affected by Vietnam trade Vietnam PMI: In the same tempo with Regional
PMI
55
30,000
27759.345
26238.285
25,351
25,000 53
23,183
22,396
20,380 19,980 19,740
20,000 19,100
17,500 51

15,000
49

10,000

47
5,000

45
- 11/1/2022 3/1/2023 7/1/2023 11/1/2023 3/1/2024 7/1/2024
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025F

FDI realised Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Vietnam ASEAN Global

Source: BIDV Securities Company (BSC) compiled from GSO, FiinproX,
tradingeconomics
 Factors affecting FDI:  Factors affecting Vietnam manufacturing activities:
(i) “China + 1” and “Hedging China + 1”; (i) New orders from Vietnam's export markets;
(ii) Global minimum tax; (ii) Government policy support for manufacturing sector.
(iii) Vietnam’s participation in FTAs; Comprehensive strategic
partnership (CSP) with China, Russia, India, South Korea, Japan,
Presentation Map
 Corporate bond market |17

Corp bond: 2025 & 2026 Real Estate Sector: less affordable ?
50,000,000,000,000
Real Estate
Real Estate
45,000,000,000,000 41.1 KBs VND

Banking
40,000,000,000,000
Others

35,000,000,000,000

30,000,000,000,000

25,000,000,000,000

20,000,000,000,000

15,000,000,000,000

10,000,000,000,000

5,000,000,000,000

0
12/1/24 3/1/25 6/1/25 9/1/25 12/1/25 3/1/26 6/1/26 9/1/26 12/1/26

 As of December 14, 2024, the total value of corporate bond issuances in  Looking forward, the rush season for the real estate sector will be in
2024 reached 374,335.9 billion VND, increase by 19.5% compared to 2023 Autumn 2025.
(313,408.2 billion VND).  In 2025, there are several firms with large outstanding bonds that come to
 In 2024: The total value of bond redemption recorded was 183,065.8 billion mature such as: Nova (8,615 bVND), TNR Holdings Vietnam (6,068 bVND),
VND, of which the banking sector accounted for 133,678.3 billion VND Sunshine (3,348 bVND)…
Presentation Map
 Vietnam macro economy forecast |18

Vietnam macroeconomic forecast

2025 - 2026
BSC scenario BSC scenario
Consensus 2025 Consensus 2026
5 AVG 1 2
2024e
(19-23) Averag Averag
2025f 2026f 2025f 2026f Min Max Min Max
e e
GDP (YoY%) 5.19 7.1 6.5 6.3 7.4 6.8 6.3 6.6 7.2 5.4 6.5 7.2
Average CPI
2.86 3.65 4.44 4.5 3.18 3.5 2.3 3.4 4.4 2.0 3.6 5.5
(YoY%)
Exports (%YoY) 8.08 15.5 7.0 7.0 17.0 17.0

Import (%YoY) 7.23 16.0 7.0 7.0 17.0 17.0

Policy rate (%) 4.0 - 6.5 4.5 4.5+ 4.5- 4.5 4.35
Yearly avg 26,056 26,619
23,331 25,053 25,554 25,810
USD/VND
Note: Source: BIDV Securities Company (BSC) complied data from
- Consensus: Average forecast of ~30 financial institutions compiled by Bloomberg – as of Dec,2024 Bloomberg

Assumptions Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Vietnam
• Monetary Policy + ++
• Fiscal Policies + ++
• U.S. Trade Taxes -- -
• FDI / Export – Import - +
• Bad debt / Corporate bond -- -
Presentation Map
 |19

Vietnam Stock Market 2025

New opportunities
New challenges
Key Notes |20

Targets for the stock market

Criteria Value (Bil.USD) % GDP 2023 Note
2025 2030

Nominal GDP 402.97 2023

The local investors and low rate
Marketcap 277.68 68.91% ≥ 100% GDP ≥ 120% GDP 30/11/2024

2.3 million new accounts/9.3 HSX 203.50 50.50%

million HNX 12.77 3.17%

Upcom 61.42 15.24%

Bond market 119.63 29.69% ≥ 47% GDP ≥ 58% GDP 30/11/2024

The Emerging Market
Goverment bonds 77.19 19.15%
2025 with FTSE? Corporate bonds 42.44 10.53% ≥ 20% GDP ≥ 25% GDP

No. stock accounts 9,157,109 9,000,000 11,000,000 30/11/2024

Domestic 9,109,511
Focus on developing institutions and
The General election XVI (2026- Individual 9,091,912 professional investors
2031) Institution 17,599
2025 – The pivotal year
Foreign 47,598

Individual 42,976 Focus on attracting foreign investors

Institution 4,622
The supply is limited
A. 2025
Few IPOs; SOE divestment - Strive to upgrade the stock market to an emerging market;
- Complete the classification of stock listed on the Stock Exchange;
- Towards the development level of the 4 leading countries in the ASEAN region;
Other goals B. General goal
- Integrate into the global financial system, improve competitiveness, manage risks, and apply international
Foreigner net sold
standards and practices;
Inline with ASEAN markets - Apply corporate ESG at the Stock Exchange and VSD, towards sustainable development factors according to
international practices.

Presentation Map
 VN-Index forecast |21

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Global economy Recession Soft-landing

Monetary Easing –>

Easing
policy Less easing

Slowly Quickly
Fiscal policies
disbursed disbursed

GDP 6.5% 7.4%

P/E 13.4 15.0

EPS growth 15%* 25%*

VN-Index < 1,250 > 1,550

VN-Index (Based on Top 35 stocks): Max – 1,599; Min – 1,317,
Median: 1,454 Source: Bloomberg, BIDV Securities (BSC)
*BSC's basecase of EPS growth: 17%

Presentation Map
 Valuation |22

P/E discounted 10% compared to 5-year average

Attractive Valuation Zone
P/E
22 30
Current

20 19.64 25

18 18.00
20

16 15.49 15

14 13.84 10

12.97
12 5

11.34
10 0
a a a s a e y
m di in si nd ne re pa
n
or U
S
U
K
an
t na In h n e ila i o a p
ie C
do
a pp K J ga er
m
V Th ili n
In P h Si G

P/E VNI P/E Average 5 years +1STDEV

-1STDEV +1.65STDEV -1.65STDEV Source: BIDV Securities (BSC) compiled from
Bloomberg

Presentation Map
 Liquidity and trading structure |23

Liquidity tends to increase in 11M2024 Investors' cash flow

30,000 8,000 5,000 1,350

6,779 1,300
26,589 7,000
25,000 0
1,250
23601.9603441568
6,000
21,417 1,200
20,000 20,164 -5,000
19297.0655808396 5,000
1,150

Bil VND
17,630

15,000 4,000 1,100

-10,000
1,050
3,000
10,000
1,000
-15,000
2,000
7,395
950
5,000
1,000 -20,000 900
11/2022 03/2023 07/2023 11/2023 03/2024 07/2024 11/2024

- -
2020 2021 2022 2023 11M2024 2025F
Domestic individual Foreign individual Domestic Institution
Liquidity (VND billion/session) Scen 1
Scen 2 Capitalization (VND trillion) Foreign Institution VN-Index (RHS)

Source: BIDV Securities (BSC) compiled from

FiinproX

Presentation Map
 What Role Will Foreign Investors Play in 2025?

%Foreign ownership  18% Mcmarket Foreign investor holding value* $40 billion

Bn USD
24.61
State; 39.25%
er Strategic
hold 63% Sharehold
re
Sha 
er

Bi g 
11% MCmarket 10.53
BnUSD
= 25 BnUSD 14.64
Other
Foreign, foreign x5
17.72%
Net outflow Other
11M2024 
14.08
BnUSD

37%
O th 3.54
er  2.32
Other; 43.03% 7% MCmarket
9.22%
= 15 BnUSD
ETF Others Big Shareholder
Net out flow Indirect Direct

Data used for analysis: top 80% of stock by market capitalization Source: BIDV Securities (BSC) compiled from
covering the market FiinproX

Presentation Map
 What Role Will Foreign Investors Play in 2025?

12-Month Cumulative Net Cash Flow of Foreign

Domestic and Foreign ETFs Record Outflows
Investors
2
535 1,600
1.12
1,500
435
1
1,400
0.29 335 1,300
0
1,200
235
-0.54 -0.44
1,100
-0.74
-0.90 135
-1
1,000

35 900
-2
800
(65)
700
-2.46
-3
(165) 600

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

10
11
12

10
11
9.22% 2022 2023 2024
-3.54
-4 Base
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Scenario
1H2025 2H2025 Vietnam ETFs Foreign ETFs
Total ETF (LHS - Mil. USD) VNI-Index (RHS - Points)

 Fed Rate Cuts: Support capital reallocation into emerging markets, easing selling pressure.
 Interest Rate Gap: Narrowing gap between US and Vietnam.
 Market Reclassification Potential: Vietnam's potential market upgrade encourages early inflows of foreign capital.
 BSC’s forecast on the market upgrade process |26

Possibility of being considered for The possibility of being

MSCI assessed improvement of considered or officially
official upgrade by FTSE
01/09 criteria upgraded by FTSE
(Positive scenario)
(Base scenario)

The Ministry of Finance 9/2025

6/2024 3/2025
issued Circular No.
68/2024/TT-BTC Source: FTSE, MSCI, BSC Research
3/2024 9/2024 6/2025 The government
sets a goal for
the market

FTSE remains a positive FTSE acknowledges the reform Possibility of being upgrade by 2025
perspective effort but points out some included in MSCI
elements that need improvement watchlist

1.2 billions 2
700 millions  1.5
billions USD
billions USD

Presentation Map
 What is going to happen in 2025?

Central Party meeting 10/2025 General election XVI

(2026-2031)

Jul: The US
recognizes that
202 Sept: FTSE officially
upgrade
202 Vietnam has a
market economy
Nov: US Presidential Election
5 (CaseStudy
: Opportunity for Vietnam)
4 202
6
Sept: low Possibility Mar: Emerging Jun: Possibility of
of being considered market MSCI inclusion on
for official upgrade upgraded by FTSE watchlist
by FTSE Mar: 2 years
extent of Corp
Bond end
 |28

Vietnam Booming year 2025?

Question & Answer

DISCLAIMER
This report, issued by the BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC), only provides general information
and analysis on the macroeconomic situation as well as the stock market movements in the past year. day.
This report is not prepared to provide at the request of any individual organization or individual or
decisions to buy, sell or hold securities. Investors should only use the information, analysis and comments
of the Report as a reference source before making their own investment decisions. All information,
judgments and forecasts and opinions contained in this report are based on reliable data sources.
However, BIDV Securities Joint Stock Company (BSC) does not warrant that these sources of information
are completely accurate and does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy of these information.
information referred to in this report, nor is it liable for damages resulting from the use of all or part of the
content of this report. All views and opinions expressed in this report are based on the most prudent, fair
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prior approval of BIDV Securities Company. .
© 2023 BIDV Securities Company, All rights reserved. Unauthorized access is prohibited.

Bloomberg: RESP BSC ResearchV <GO>

Analytics and Research Department For Institutional Customers For

Individual Customers
[email protected] [email protected] i-
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29
Will public investment + real estate + credit growth serve as pillars for the recovery cycle? |30

Sector Rotation Model

Financials Technology Basic Materials Energy Healthcare

Technology Industrials Energy Consumer Staples Utilities
Cyclical Sectors Basic Materials Consumer Staples Healthcare Financials

Full Recovery
Market Peak

VN-Index

Early Recession
Bull Market

Bear Market
Early Recovery
Recession

Bear Market Bottom Economy Market Bear Market Bottom

Market Economy
 BSC-Universe is projected to achieve a CAGR net profit growth of 18.3% |31
|31
for 2024-2026

Industry BSC’s 2H2024 perspective BSC’s 2025 perspective Notable Stocks

Technology - Telecommunication Positive Positive FPT

Industrial Positive Positive KBC
Fishery Neutral Positive VHC
F&B - Retail Positive Positive MWG, MSN, FRT, PNJ
Material Positive Positive HPG, HSG
Textile Positive Positive TNG
Utilities Positive* Positive* NT2, QTP
Banking Neutral Positive BID, CTG, VCB, HDB, STB, TCB, VPB
Chemicals & Fertilizers Positive Positive DPM, DDV, DGC
Maritime Transport & Ports Positive Positive HAH, GMD
Petroleum Neutral Positive PVS, GAS
Real Estate Neutral Positive DXG, PDR, DPG
Construction Neutral Positive HHV, CTD
Automobile Neutral Neutral
Tire Tubes Neutral Neutral

Legend:
Positive: Net profit growth above 15%.
Neutral: Net profit growth below 15%.
(*): Excluding extraordinary profits
 TOP RECOMMENDED STOCKS IN |32

Ticker 2025 Market

cap
Revenue % YoY Revenue NPATMI % YoY NPATMI EPS P/E FWD P/B FWD ROA ROE
Closing
Price Target
Price
Upside
(VND Bn) 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 2024F 2025F 23/12/2024
Electricity – Fertilizer – Gas
NT2 5,758 6,108 7,495 -4% 23% 473 299 474 -37% 59% 1,037 1,647 19.2 12.1 1.2 1.1 3% 5% 7% 10% 20,000 25,000 25%
GAS 160,473 105,729 116,523 18% 10% 11,606 11,605 12,511 0% 8% 4,954 5,340 13.8 12.8 2.7 2.6 15% 16% 13% 19% 68,500 83,100 21%
PVD 13,174 8,659 9,405 49% 9% 585 651 741 11% 14% 1,048 1,194 20.5 18.0 0.9 0.8 4% 4% 5% 6% 23,700 28,100 19%
PVS 16,251 21,892 36,151 13% 65% 1,026 1,111 1,345 8% 21% 1,743 2,110 14.6 12.1 1.3 1.2 4% 5% 10% 10% 34,000 40,300 19%
QTP 6,613 11,741 12,822 -3% 9% 612 774 963 27% 24% 1,721 2,140 8.4 6.8 1.1 0.9 10% 12% 14% 15% 14,700 17,100 16%
DGC 44,244 10,045 11,563 3% 15% 3,100 3,046 3,456 -2% 13% 8,022 9,100 14.5 12.8 3.2 2.7 20% 19% 24% 24% 116,500 133,400 15%
DDV 2,982 3,330 3,414 5% 3% 69 144 214 108% 49% 982 1,466 19.3 13.0 2.1 2.1 8% 13% 11% 16% 20,500 22,900 12%
Basic materials – Real estate
PDR 18,161 1,732 4,016 180% 132% 684 629 827 -8% 32% 702 923 30.1 22.9 1.6 1.5 3% 3% 5% 7% 20,800 29,800 43%
HPG 172,699 139,664 179,942 17% 27% 6,835 12,300 18,558 80% 31% 1,923 2,901 14.3 9.5 1.5 1.3 6% 7% 11% 14% 27,000 37,500 39%
DPG 3,163 4,043 4,203 17% 4% 203 230 308 13% 34% 3,636 4,861 14.0 10.5 1.6 1.5 4% 6% 12% 14% 50,200 68,800 37%
CTD 6,745 21,045 24,250 27% 15% 52 310 450 495% 45% 3,098 4,499 21.5 14.8 0.8 0.7 1% 2% 4% 5% 67,500 90,000 33%
DXG 12,720 4,722 3,147 27% -33% 172 265 224 54% -16% 367 309 49.0 58.0 1.2 1.2 1% 1% 2% 2% 17,650 23,100 31%
HHV 4,755 3,026 3,494 13% 15% 322 387 498 20% 29% 896 1,151 12.6 9.8 0.5 0.5 1% 1% 4% 5% 11,000 14,000 27%
KBC 21,339 2,825 5,949 -50% 111% 2,031 584 1,352 -71% 132% 761 1,762 37.1 16.0 1.0 1.0 1% 3% 3% 6% 27,800 35,000 26%
Import/Export – Logistics - Retail
MSN 101,116 82,623 86,264 6% 4% 419 2,070 3,236 394% 56% 1,407 2,198 50.1 32.0 3.1 2.9 3% 4% 9% 12% 70,300 97,800 39%
MWG 89,177 134,342 141,983 14% 6% 168 3,881 4,863 2215% 25% 2,651 3,322 22.6 18.0 3.2 2.8 6% 7% 14% 15% 61,000 77,000 26%
HAH 6,079 3,769 4,627 44% 23% 385 532 714 38% 34% 4,709 5,915 11.4 8.5 1.8 1.6 8% 9% 14% 16% 50,100 61,700 23%
PNJ 32,878 38,692 36,359 17% -6% 1,971 2,092 2,439 6% 17% 5,664 6,777 15.6 13.4 2.9 2.5 15% 15% 19% 19% 97,300 118,000 21%
GMD 26,909 4,643 5,046 21% 9% 2,251 1,528 1,443 -32% -6% 3,690 3,486 18.0 19.0 2.0 1.9 11% 9% 14% 13% 65,000 78,000 20%
TNG 3,224 7,932 9,659 12% 22% 218 324 411 49% 27% 2,874 3,380 9.7 7.7 1.4 1.4 5% 6% 16% 17% 26,300 30,500 16%
FRT 25,028 39,294 46,573 23% 19% -346 371 610 -207% 64% 2,721 4,478 67.0 40.8 12.6 9.6 2% 4% 19% 24% 183,700 205,600 12%
Bank
VPB 150,348 61,006 71,821 23% 18% 15,272 18,582 54% 22% 1,925 2,342 10.0 8.1 1.1 1.0 2% 2% 11% 13% 18,950 26,000 37%
TCB 170,842 49,245 57,662 23% 17% 21,534 25,896 20% 20% 3,057 3,676 7.9 6.5 1.2 1.0 2% 3% 16% 17% 24,250 29,000 21%
STB 63,720 28,922 32,892 11% 14% 9,514 11,874 26% 25% 5,046 6,298 6.7 5.4 1.2 1.0 1% 2% 19% 21% 33,800 41,000 19%

Source: BSC Research *As of 23/12/2024