PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION

SUBMITTED TO : Dr.Shashi Kapoor

SUBMITTED BY : Simarpreet Kaur , Amreen Kaur ,Vaibhav Jain
 CONTENT COVERED :

 INTRODUCTION
 PROBABILITY VS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 RANDOM VARIABLE
 PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION
 PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
 CUMULITIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
 EXPECTATION
 TYPES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 BINOMIAL
 POISSON
 NORMAL
 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
 Probability distribution yields the possible outcomes for any random event. It is also
defined based on the underlying sample space as a set of possible outcomes of any
random experiment. These settings could be a set of real numbers or a set of vectors or a
set of any entities. It is a part of probability and statistics.

Knowledge of probability distributions yield;

1. It enables us to epitomize and decipher data through the implementation of some
numbers.
2. It assists in locating the outcomes of experiments in the specified context, i.e, it permits
one to identify whether the outcomes are compatible with defined ideas or not.
PROBABILITY VS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
 EXAMPLE..
 Probability:

If I ask, "What’s the chance of rolling a 3?", the answer would be 1 out of 6 (or about 16.67%).This is probability: the chance of one specific
event happening (rolling a 3).
 Probability Distribution:

If I ask, "What are the chances of rolling any number from 1 to 6?",
you would list the probabilities for each possible outcome:
1: 1/6
2: 1/6
3: 1/6
4: 1/6
5: 1/6
6: 1/6
This is a probability distribution: it shows the likelihood of all possible outcomes of rolling the die.
In summary:
Probability is the chance of a single outcome (e.g., rolling a 3).Probability distribution shows the chances for all possible outcomes (e.g.,
rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6).
 KEY CONCEPTS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

• Random Variable: A variable that takes on different values based on the outcome of
a random event.
• Discrete: Can take on a countable number of values.
• Continuous: Can take on an infinite number of values within a range.

• Probability Mass Function (PMF): Used for discrete random variables.

• Probability Density Function (PDF): Used for continuous random variables.
• Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF): Represents the probability that a random
variable takes a value less than or equal to a given point.
 RANDOM VARIABLE

 Random Variable is a function that associates a real number with an event. It

means assigning a value (real number) to every possible outcome. In more
mathematical terms, it is a function from the sample space Ω to the real numbers.
We can choose our random variable according to our needs.
 There are following two types of
 Discrete Random Variables in Probability Distribution

A Discrete Random Variable can only take a finite number of values.

 Continuous Random Variable in Probability Distribution

A Continuous Random Variable can take infinite values in a continuous

domain.
 RANDOM VARIABLE EXAMPLE

Imagine you are tossing a fair coin. The possible outcomes are either heads (H) or tails (T). We can define
a random variable ( X ) that represents the outcome of the coin toss as follows:
•( X = 1 ) if the outcome is heads (H)
•( X = 0 ) if the outcome is tails (T)
There are following two types of Random Variable-

Discrete Random Variables in Probability Distribution-

A Discrete Random Variable can only take a finite number of values.

Example – 0,1,2,3,4 ( no.of heads)

Continuous Random Variable in Probability

Distribution-

A Continuous Random Variable can take infinite values in a continuous domain.

Example -0.1,0.2.0.3
(height – 5’8,5’4)
 PROBABILITY MASS FUNCTION (PMF)

 Definition:The PMF of a discrete random variable gives the probability that the
variable is exactly equal to some value. It is a function that maps each possible value
of the random variable to its corresponding probability.
 Formula: 𝑃(𝑋=𝑥)=𝑝(𝑥) ,Where 𝑃(𝑋=𝑥) is the probability that the random variable 𝑋
takes the value x.
 Example:

• For a fair six-sided die, the PMF is P(X=x)=1/6​for x=1,2,3,4,5,6

 PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION (PDF)

•Definition:
A PDF is a function that describes the likelihood of a continuous random variable taking
on a particular value. Unlike PMF, the value of the PDF at any specific point is not the
probability itself but the density of probability.
•Formula:
f(x)
Where f(x) is the value of the PDF at point x
 PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION GRAPH

For a Normal distribution, the PDF has the bell-

shaped curve, and the area under the curve between
two points represents the probability that the
variable falls within that range.
 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (CDF)
•Definition:
•A CDF gives the probability that a random variable X will take a value less than or
equal to xxx. It is applicable to both discrete and continuous random variables.
•Formula:
F(x)=P(X≤x)
Where F(x) is the cumulative probability up to value x
•Example:
•For a Normal distribution, the CDF can tell us the probability that a value is below a
certain threshold (e.g., finding the probability that a score is less than 75 in a
standardized test).
 GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF CUMULATIVE
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

 The graph of a CDF is a non-decreasing curve that starts at 0 and approaches 1 as the x increases. It is
useful for visualizing the probability distribution of the random variable
 EXPECTATION (MEAN)

•Definition:
•The expectation or mean of a random variable is the long-term average value of the
variable if the experiment is repeated many times.
•Formula:
•For Discrete Variables:

For Continuous Variables:

 VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION

•Definition: A measure of how much the values of a random variable differ

from the mean.
•Formula:
•Where 𝜇 is the mean of the distribution.
•Standard Deviation:
•Definition: The square root of the variance, providing a measure of the
spread of the distribution.
•Formula:
TYPES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

1. Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Describes the number of successes in a fixed number of independent
Bernoulli trials (e.g., flipping a coin).
 Poisson Distribution: Represents the number of events occurring within a fixed interval of time or
space (e.g., number of emails received in an hour).

2. Continuous Probability Distributions

 Normal Distribution: Also known as the Gaussian distribution, it has a bell-shaped curve and is
defined by its mean and standard deviation.
 APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

1. Risk Assessment: Probability distributions are used to model financial risks, such
as stock price movements, interest rates, and insurance claims. For example, the
Normal distribution is often applied in risk management to model the returns of
assets.
2. Inventory Management: The Poisson distribution helps in determining the
optimal inventory levels by predicting the demand for products or services over a
fixed period.
3. Market Research: Binomial distribution is used to analyze survey results, such
as estimating the probability of customer preferences or purchasing decisions.
 APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

4. Psychometrics: The Normal distribution is widely used in psychological testing and

education to model the distribution of scores on standardized tests, enabling the comparison
of individual performance against a population.

5. Demography: Poisson distribution models the number of births, deaths, or marriages in a

population over time, aiding in the study of population dynamics and forecasting.

6. Algorithms and Machine Learning: Probability distributions, like the Gaussian

(Normal) distribution, are foundational in algorithms for pattern recognition, classification,
and data modeling. For example, Gaussian Naive Bayes classifiers assume data distribution
is normal.

7. Network Traffic Analysis: The Poisson distribution models the number of packets
arriving at a network server, helping optimize server performance and reduce latency.
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• Definition:
• The Binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of successes in a fixed
number of independent and identical trials, where each trial has only two possible outcomes: success or
failure.
• Key Characteristics:
• Binary Outcomes: Each trial results in one of two possible outcomes, commonly labeled as "success" and
"failure."
• Fixed Number of Trials (n): The distribution considers a fixed number of independent trials.
• Constant Probability (p): The probability of success (p) remains the same across all trials.
• Independence: The outcome of any given trial does not affect the outcome of the others.
MATHEMATICAL REPRESENTATION OF BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION

 The binomial probability can be expressed as:

 Where “x” is the success that will occur in “n” trials

under a binomial experiment.
 When the probability of success and failure is equal
then the graph of binomial distribution in that situation
looks like as follows
 FEATURES OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

 The mean of a binomial distribution is calculated by multiplying the number of trials by the probability
of successes, i.e, “(np)”, and the variance of the binomial distribution is “np (1 − p)”.
 When p = 0.5, the distribution is said to be symmetric about mean, when p > 0.5, the distribution is
skewed to the left, and when p < 0.5, the distribution is skewed to the right.
 It incorporates the following properties;

1. It involves a sequence of “n identical trials”.

2. The trials are independent as the outcome of past events doesn’t decide or affect the outcome of the
present event.
3. Two outcomes are possible, “success or failure”, “win or lose” or “gain or lose” for each outcome.
4. The probability of success on each trial, denoted by “p”, doesn’t alter from trial to trial.
 APPLICATIONS OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
1. Quality Control:
Used to determine the probability of finding a certain number of defective products in a batch
during quality inspections.
2. Medical Studies:
Estimating the probability of a specific number of patients responding to a treatment in clinical
trials.
3. Marketing:
Predicting the success rate of a marketing campaign, such as the number of people who will
respond to a direct mail offer.
4. Election Polling:
Assessing the probability of a certain number of voters favoring a particular candidate based on
a sample of voters.
5. Genetics:
Calculating the likelihood of offspring inheriting a particular trait based on parental genotypes.
 Poisson distribution
•Definition:
•The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of events
occurring within a fixed interval of time or space, given that these events happen independently of each
other and at a constant average rate.

•Key Characteristics:
•Discrete Events: The distribution counts the number of occurrences of an event.
•Fixed Interval: The interval can be time, space, volume, etc., and is held constant.
•Constant Rate (λ): The average number of events (λ) in the interval remains constant.
•Independence: The occurrence of an event in one interval does not affect the occurrence in another .
 MATHEMATICAL REPRESENTATION OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION

 Poisson random variables are the number of successes that

yield from the Poisson experiment and their corresponding
probability is known as the Poisson distribution that can be
expressed as;

 Where “X” is the Poisson random variable, “x” is the number

of successes and the mean “µ” is the fundamental parameter in
this distribution (defined below).
 The graph of Poisson distribution is shown below;
 FEATURES OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION

 Poisson Distribution is only suited in the conditions where events occur at random points of time and
space, and point of interest exists only in the total number of occurrences of the event.
 In addition to that, a few symbols that are used in Poisson distribution are; “λ” is the rate at which an
event occurs, “t” is the length of a time interval, and X is the number of events in that time interval,
then mean (denoted by “µ”) is defined as the “λ” times length of that time interval, “µ = λ*t”.
 Some features of Poisson distribution are following;
 One successful event would not affect the outcome of another successful event.
 Over a small interval, a probability of success must be equivalent to the probability of success around a
larger interval.
 If the interval tends to be smaller then the probability of success approaches zero in an interval.
 APPLICATIONS OF POISSON DISTRIBUTION

1. Telecommunications:
Modeling the number of phone calls received by a call center per minute or hour, helping to
optimize staffing and resource allocation.
2. Traffic Flow Analysis:
Estimating the number of vehicles passing through an intersection or toll booth in a given time
period, which is crucial for traffic management and infrastructure planning.
3. Epidemiology:
Predicting the number of occurrences of rare diseases in a population over a specific period,
aiding in public health planning.
4. Queueing Theory:
Analyzing the arrival of customers at a service point (e.g., supermarket checkout, bank teller) to
optimize service efficiency.
5. Natural Disasters:
Estimating the frequency of events like earthquakes, floods, or wildfires in a region over a certain
period, which can inform disaster preparedness strategies.
 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Definition:
The Normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, is a continuous
probability distribution characterized by its bell-shaped curve, which is symmetric around
the mean.
Key Characteristics:
• Symmetry: The distribution is perfectly symmetrical around the mean (μ).
• Bell-Shaped Curve: The highest point on the curve corresponds to the mean, and the
curve decreases gradually on both sides.
• Mean, Median, and Mode: In a normal distribution, these three measures of central
tendency are all equal.
• Asymptotic: The tails of the distribution curve approach the horizontal axis but never
touch it, meaning extreme values are possible but rare.
 FEATURES OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 The normal distribution is completely described by its mean and standard deviation, i.e., the
distribution is not skewed and does show kurtosis due to which the distribution is symmetric and
depicted as a “bell-shaped curve” when plotted.
 It has the following features:

1. The mean, median, and mode of the distribution are co-existed.

2. The distribution curve is bell-shaped and symmetrical across the line where “x=μ”.
3. Exactly half of the values are situated at the left of the center and the other half at the right.
4. Under the curve, the total area is “one”.
5. X Axis represents random carriable like height ,weight etc.
6. Y Axis represents its probability density function.
7. Area under the curve tells the probability .
8. It is symmetrical , unimodal . (ONE PEAK)
9. Mean number of occurance in unit of time is propotional to size of unit. ( if 5 in 1 year then 10 in 2
years)
 APPLICATIONS OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

1. Standardized Testing:
Test scores (e.g., SAT, IQ tests) are often normally distributed, allowing for the
creation of percentile ranks and standardized scoring.
2. Finance:
Modeling the returns on stocks and other financial instruments, where asset
returns are often assumed to be normally distributed in risk management and
option pricing (e.g., Black-Scholes model).
3. Quality Control:
In manufacturing, the distribution of product dimensions is assumed to be
normal, which is used to set tolerance levels and improve product quality.
Thank you