Simulation
Simulation
Imitation An attempt to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system
1. To imitate a real-world situation realmathematically 2. To study its properties and operating characteristics 3. To draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results of the simulation
SimulationSimulation-New Definition
A simulation is a computer-based computermodel used to run experiments on a real system
Typically done on a computer Determines reactions to different operating rules or change in structure A given system is copied and the variables and constants associated with it are manipulated in that artificial environment to examine the behaviour of the system
Simulation Example
Aerodynamic SimulationSimulation to study aerodynamic properties of aeroplane
Computer Program SimulationSimulation for layout, financial and market analysis model
Computer Analysis
Simulation Applications
Ambulance location and dispatching AssemblyAssembly-line balancing Parking lot and harbor design Distribution system design Scheduling aircraft LaborLabor-hiring decisions Personnel scheduling TrafficTraffic-light timing Voting pattern prediction Bus scheduling Design of library operations Taxi, truck, and railroad dispatching Production facility scheduling Plant layout Capital investments Production scheduling Sales forecasting Inventory planning and control
Table F.1
Define problem
Introduce variables
Examine results
Figure F.1
Advantages of Simulation
1. Relatively straightforward and flexible 2. Can be used to analyze large and complex real-world situations that realcannot be solved by conventional models 3. Real-world complications can be Realincluded that most OM models cannot permit 4. Time compression is possible
Years of experience in the real system can be compressed into seconds or minutes
Advantages of Simulation
5. Allows what-if types of questions what6. Does not interfere with real-world realsystems 7. Can study the interactive effects of individual components or variables in order to determine which ones are important
Advantages of Simulation
Often leads to a better understanding of the real system Simulation is far more general than mathematical models Simulation can be used as a game for training experience Simulation provides a more realistic replication of a system than mathematical analysis Many standard packaged models, covering a wide range of topics, are available commercially
Disadvantages of Simulation
1. Can be very expensive and may take months to develop 2. It is a trial-and-error approach that may trial-andproduce different solutions in repeated runs - Simulation may be less accurate than mathematical analysis because it is randomly based 3. Managers must generate all of the conditions and constraints for solutions they want to examine 4. Each simulation model is unique
Disadvantages of Simulation ..
There is no guarantee that the model will, in fact, provide good answers There is no way to prove reliability A significant amount of computer time may be needed to run complex models The technique of simulation still lacks a standardized approach
Inventory Simulation
Daily demand for Ace Drill
(1) Demand for Ace Drill 0 1 2 3 4 5 (2) Frequency 15 30 60 120 45 30 300 (3) Probability .05 .10 .20 .40 .15 .10 1.00
Table F.8
(5) Interval of Random Numbers 01 through 05 06 through 15 16 through 35 36 through 75 76 through 90 91 through 00
Simulation Example 1
Day Random Simulated Number Number Daily Demand 1 52 5 3 Expected 37 2 3 = (probability of i units) x demand 82i =1 3 4 (demand of i units) 4 69 4 =98(.05)(0) + (.10)(1) + (.20)(2) + 5 5 (.30)(3) + 5(.20)(4) + (.15)(5) 6 96 7 =330 + .1 + .4 + .92+ .8 + .75 8 50 3 =882.95 tires 9 5 10 90 5 39 Total 3.9 Average