Statistical Estimation Techniques

TESHOME DEMIS (BSc, MPH)

02/03/25 [email protected] 1
 Introduction
In the real world, the values of population parameters are fixed
and usually not known.
Instead, we must try to say something about the way in which
a variable is distributed using the information contained in a
sample of observations.
The process of drawing conclusions about an entire population
based on the data in a sample is known as statistical inference.
Two broad categories: Estimation and Hypothesis testing.

02/03/25 [email protected] 2
 Estimation
Is concerned with estimating the values of specific population
parameters based on sample statistic.
Is about using information in a sample to make estimates of the
characteristics (parameters) of the source population.

Examples: A sample survey revealed:

 Proportion of smokers among a certain group of population aged 15 to 24.

 Mean of SBP among sampled population

The next question is what can we predict about the characteristics of

the population from which the sample was drawn
02/03/25 [email protected] 3
 Estimation, Estimator & Estimate
♣ Estimation is the computation of a statistic from sample data,
often yielding a value that is an approximation (guess) of its
target, an unknown true population parameter value.

♣ The statistic itself is called an estimator and can be of two

types - point or interval.

♣ The value or values that the estimator assumes are called

estimates.
02/03/25 [email protected] 4
Two methods of estimation are commonly used:
point estimation and interval estimation

Point estimation involves the calculation of a single number to

estimate the population parameter
Interval estimation specifies a range of reasonable values for
the parameter

02/03/25 [email protected] 5
 Point versus Interval Estimators
♣ An estimator that represents a "single best guess" is called a
point estimator.

♣ When the estimate is of the form of a "range of plausible

values", it is called an interval estimator.

 Thus,
 A point estimate is of the form: [ Value ],

 Whereas, an interval estimate is of the form: [ lower limit,

upper limit ]
02/03/25 [email protected] 6
Sample mean ( ) is an unbiased estimator of population mean.

02/03/25 [email protected] 7
 Estimating the Sampling Error

 Any estimates derived from samples are subject to the

sampling error.
 This comes from the fact that only a part of the population
was observed, instead of the whole.
 A different samples could have come up with different results.

 The amount of variation that exists among the estimates from

the different possible samples
02/03/25
is the sampling error.
[email protected] 8
 The standard deviation of this set of sample means is and is
referred to as the standard error of the mean (sem) or the standard
error.
 The sem is estimated by if  is unknown.

02/03/25 [email protected] 9
 The sampling error is dependent on sample size (n) and the

variability of individual sample points ().

 As n increases, the sample mean ( ) and the sample variance
s2 approach the values of the true population parameters, µ
and 2, respectively.

02/03/25 [email protected] 10
 Example
 Suppose that the mean ± sd of DBP on 20 males is 78.5 ± 10.3 mm
Hg.

1. What is our best estimate of µ ?

2. What is the sem?

3. Compare the sem with the sd.

02/03/25 [email protected] 11
 The following table gives the se for mean of DBP for different
sample sizes.
 Our best estimate of µ is 78.5.

 The sem of this estimate is 10.3/√20 = 2.3

 The sem (2.3) is much smaller than sd (10.3).

02/03/25 [email protected] 12
 1. Point Estimate
 A single numerical value used to estimate the corresponding
population parameter.
Sample Statistic are Estimators of Population Parameters

Sample mean, µ
Sample variance, S2 2
Sample P or π
proportion, p OR
Sample Odds Ratio,
RR
OŔ
02/03/25 [email protected] ρ 13
Sample Relative Risk, RŔ
 2. Interval Estimation
 Interval estimation specifies a range of reasonable values for
the population parameter based on a point estimate.
 A confidence interval is a particular type of interval estimator.

Confidence Intervals
 Give a plausible range of values of the estimate likely to include
the “true” (population) value with a given confidence level.
 An interval estimate provides more information about a
population characteristic than does a point estimate
02/03/25 [email protected] 14
 CIs also give information about the precision of an estimate.

 When sampling variability is high, the CI will be wide to reflect

the uncertainty of the observation.

 Wider CIs indicate less certainty.

 CIs can also answer the question of whether or not an

association exists (analogous to p-values…).

 Narrow CI widths reflects large sample size or low variability

or both.
02/03/25 [email protected] 15
 General Formula:
The general formula for all CIs is:

The value of the statistic in sample

(eg., mean, proportions, etc.)
point estimate  (measure of how confident we want to be)
 (standard error)

From a Z table or a T table, depending on the

sampling distribution of the statistic.

02/03/25 [email protected] 16
A confidence interval has 3 components:

1) A point estimate (e.g. the sample mean)

2) The standard error of the point estimate ( e.g. SEM =σ/√ n )

3) A confidence coefficient (conf. coeff)

Lower limit = Point Estimate - (Critical Value/ confidence
coefficient) x (Standard Error)
Upper limit = Point Estimate + (Critical Value/ confidence
coefficient) x (Standard Error)
02/03/25 [email protected] 17
 Confidence Level
 Confidence Level:

 Confidence in which the interval will contain the unknown

population parameter
 A percentage (less than 100%)

Example: 95%
 Also written (1 - α) = .95

02/03/25 [email protected] 18
 Definition of 95% CI
1. Probabilistic interpretation:
 If all possible random samples of a given sample size were obtained
and if each were used to obtain its own CI, then 95% of all such CIs
would contain the unknown population parameter; the remaining 5%
would not.

2. Practical interpretation
 When sampling is from a normally distributed population with known
standard deviation, we are 100 (1-α) [e.g., 95%] confident that the
single computed interval contains the unknown population
parameter.
02/03/25 [email protected] 19
 Estimation for Single Population

02/03/25 [email protected] 20
 1. CI for a Population Mean (normally distributed)

A. Known variance (large sample size)

Consider the task of computing a CI estimate of μ for a

population distribution that is normal with σ known.
 Available are data from a random sample of size = n.

02/03/25 [email protected] 21
Assumptions
 Population standard deviation () is known

 Population is normally distributed

 If population is not normal, use large sample

A 100(1-)% C.I. for  is:

  is to be chosen by the researcher, most common values

of  are 0.1, 0.05 and [email protected]
02/03/25 0.01. 22
3. Commonly used CLs are 90%, 95%, and 99%

02/03/25 [email protected] 23
 Finding the Critical Value

02/03/25 [email protected] 24
 Margin of Error
(Precision of the estimate)

02/03/25 [email protected] 25
 Factors Affecting Margin of Error

The CI for mean or margin of error is determined by n, s,

and α.
As n increases, the CI decreases.

As s increases, the length of CI increases.

As the confidence level increases (α decreases), the length

of CI increases.
02/03/25 [email protected] 26
 Example:
1. Waiting times (in hours) at a particular hospital are believed to
be approximately normally distributed with a variance of
2.25 hr.

a. A sample of 20 outpatients revealed a mean waiting time of

1.52 hours. Construct the 95% CI for the estimate of the
population mean.

b. Suppose that the mean of 1.52 hours had resulted from a

sample of 32 patients. Find the 95% CI.

c. 02/03/25
What effect does larger sample size have on the CI?
[email protected] 27
 a.
2.25
1.52 1.96 1.52 1.96(.33)
20
1.52 .65 (.87, 2.17)

 We are 95% confident that the true mean waiting time is

between 0.87 and 2.17 hrs.
 95% of the intervals formed in this manner will contain the true
mean.

02/03/25 [email protected] 28
b. 2.25
1.52 1.96 1.52 1.96(.27)
32
1.52 .53 (.99, 2.05)

c. The larger the sample size makes the CI narrower (more

precision).

02/03/25 [email protected] 29
 When constructing CIs, it has been assumed that the standard
deviation of the underlying population,  , is known
 What if  is not known?

 In this case, the SE of the population can be replaced by the

SE of the sample if the sample size is large enough (n>30).
With large sample size, we assume a normal distribution.

02/03/25 [email protected] 30
 Example: It was found that a sample of 35 patients were 17.2
minutes late for appointments, on the average, with SD of 8
minutes. What is the 90% CI for µ? Ans: (14.98, 19.42).
 Since the sample size is fairly large (>30) and the
population SD is unknown, we assume the distribution
of sample mean to be normally distributed based on
the CLT and the sample SD to replace population .

02/03/25 [email protected] 31
 B. Unknown variance
(small sample size, n ≤ 30)
 What if the  for the underlying population is unknown and
the sample size is small?

 As an alternative we use Student’s t distribution .

02/03/25 [email protected] 32
02/03/25 [email protected] 33
 Student’s t Distribution
 The t is a family of continuous probability distributions

 Bell Shaped

 Symmetric about zero (the mean)

 Flatter than the Normal (0,1). This means

The variability of a t is greater than that of a Z that is

normal(0,1)
Thus, there is more area under the tails and less at center

Because variability is greater, resulting confidence intervals

02/03/25 [email protected] 34
will be wider.
 • Note: t approaches z as n increases

02/03/25 [email protected] 35
 Student’s t Table

02/03/25 [email protected] 36
 t distribution values
 With comparison to the Z value

02/03/25 [email protected] 37
 Example

 Standard error =

 t-value at 90% CI at 19 df =1.729

02/03/25 [email protected] 38
02/03/25 [email protected] 39
 2. CIs for population proportion, p

Is based on three elements of CI.

Point estimate

SE of point estimate

Confidence coefficient
02/03/25 [email protected] 40
02/03/25 [email protected] 41
02/03/25 [email protected] 42
Lower limit = Point Estimate - (Critical Value) x (Standard
Error of Estimate)
Upper limit = Point Estimate + (Critical Value) x (Standard
Error of Estimate)

Hence,

is an approximate 95% CI for the true proportion p.

02/03/25 [email protected] 43
 Example 1
 A random sample of 100 people shows that 25 are left-
handed. Form a 95% CI for the true proportion of left-
handers.

02/03/25 [email protected] 44
 Interpretation

02/03/25 [email protected] 45
 Example
 It was found that 28.1% of 153 cervical-cancer cases had never
had a Pap smear prior to the time of case’s diagnosis. Calculate
a 95% CI for the percentage of cervical-cancer cases who never
had a Pap test.

02/03/25 [email protected] 46
 Sample size Determination
Too small sample size :
May fail to detect an important effect

Estimates of effect may be too imprecise (wide CI’s)

Too many sample size:

May results in wastage of resources.

To make generalizations about entire population, we need

a total sample size of 200-400
02/03/25 [email protected] 47
 Confidence interval approach
 Given confidence interval
mean ( proportion ) z  s.e
2

 Hence the absolute precision denoted by d is given as

Margin of error
d = z s.e

 Where s.e is the standard error2 of the estimator of the
parameter of interest.

02/03/25 [email protected] 48
 Steps to determine sample size:
1. Specify tolerable error (i.e., desired precision and confidence
level via d and  )

2. Identify appropriate equation relating tolerable error (d, ) to

sample size (n)

3. Estimate unknown quantities in equation

4. Solve for n

5. Evaluate (and return to first step)

sample size calculation should relate to the study’s outcome
variable
02/03/25 [email protected] 49
 Estimating a single population
mean/proportion

02/03/25 [email protected] 50
 Examples
1. A survey is being planned to determine what proportion of
families in a certain area are medically indigent. It is found
that the proportion is 0.35 from previous studies. A 95%
confidence interval is desired with d=5% What size sample of
families should be selected?

02/03/25 [email protected] 51
 2. Suppose that you are interested to know the proportion of
infants who breastfed >18 months of age in a rural area.
Suppose that in a similar area, the proportion (p) of breastfed
infants was found to be 0.20. What sample size is required to
estimate the true proportion within ±3% points with 95%
confidence. Let p=0.20, d=0.03, α=5%

02/03/25 [email protected] 52
 Example
3. Suppose that for a certain group of cancer patients, we are
interested in estimating the mean age at diagnosis. We would like
a 95% CI and wants margin of error of 2 units.

If the population SD is 124 years, how large should our sample

be?

= 1.96*1.96*124 = 119
2*2

02/03/25 [email protected] 53
 Suppose there is no prior information about the proportion
(p) who breastfeed

For a fixed absolute precision (d), the required sample

size increases as P increases form 0 to 0.5, and then
decreases in the same way as the prevalence
approaches 1.

02/03/25 [email protected] 54
 An estimate of p is not always available.

 However, the formula may also be used for sample size

calculation based on various assumptions for the values of
p.
P = 0.1  n = (1.96)2(0.1)(0.9)/(0.05)2 = 138
P = 0.2  n = (1.96)2(0.2)(0.8)/(0.05)2 = 246
P = 0.3  n = (1.96)2(0.3)(0.7)/(0.05)2 = 323
P = 0.5  n = (1.96)2(0.5)(0.5)/(0.05)2 = 384
P = 0.7  n = (1.96)2(0.7)(0.3)/(0.05)2 = 323
P = 0.8  n = (1.96)2(0.8)(0.2)/(0.05)2 = 246
02/03/25 [email protected] 55
 Some Considerations

02/03/25 [email protected] 56
 Using design effect
 The loss of effectiveness by the use of cluster sampling,
instead of simple random sampling, is the design effect.
 The design effect is basically the ratio of the actual variance,
under the sampling method actually used, to the variance
computed under the assumption of simple random
sampling

02/03/25 [email protected] 57
 Using design effect cont.…
 When simple and systematic random sampling
techniques are used design effect is one.
 When clustering sampling technique is used design
effect is two.
 When multi stage sampling technique is used design
effect is equal to the number of stages.

02/03/25 [email protected] 58
02/03/25 [email protected] 59