Chapter 6

Probability
 Chapter 6 Learning Outcomes

1 • Understand definition of probability

2 • Explain assumptions of random sampling

3 • Use unit normal table to find probabilities

4 • Use unit normal table to find scores for given proportion

5 • Find percentiles and percentile rank in normal distribution

 Tools You Will Need
• Proportions (Math Review, Appendix A)
– Fractions
– Decimals
– Percentages
• Basic algebra (Math Review, Appendix A)
• z-scores (Chapter 5)
 6.1 Introduction to Probability

• Research begins with a question about an

entire population.
• Actual research is conducted using a
sample.
• Inferential statistics use sample data to
answer questions about the population
• Relationships between samples and
populations are defined in terms of
probability
Figure 6.1 Role of probability
in inferential statistics
 Definition of Probability

• Several different outcomes are possible

• The probability of any specific outcome is
a fraction or proportion of all possible
outcomes

number of outcomes classified as A

probability of A 
total number of possible outcomes
 Probability Notation
• p is the symbol for “probability”
• Probability of some specific outcome is
specified by p(event)
• So the probability of drawing a red ace
from a standard deck of playing cards
could be symbolized as p(red ace)
• Probabilities are always proportions
• p(red ace) = 2/52 ≈ 0.03846 (proportion is
2 red aces out of 52 cards)
 (Independent)
Random Sampling

• A process or procedure used to draw

samples
• Required for our definition of probability to
be accurate
• The “Independent” modifier is generally
left off, so it becomes “random sampling”
 Definition of Random Sample

• A sample produced by a process that

assures:
– Each individual in the population has an equal
chance of being selected
– Probability of being selected stays constant
from one selection to the next when more
than one individual is selected
• Requires sampling with replacement
 Probability and
Frequency Distributions
• Probability usually involves population of
scores that can be displayed in a frequency
distribution graph
• Different portions of the graph represent
portions of the population
• Proportions and probabilities are equivalent
• A particular portion of the graph
corresponds to a particular probability in the
population
 Figure 6.2 Population
Frequency Distribution Histogram
 Learning Check
• A deck of 52 cards contains 12 royalty cards. If
you randomly select a card from the deck, what
is the probability of obtaining a royalty card?

A • p = 1/52
B • p = 12/52
C • p = 3/52
D • p = 4/52
 Learning Check - Answer
• A deck of 52 cards contains 12 royalty cards. If
you randomly select a card from the deck, what
is the probability of obtaining a royalty card?

A • p = 1/52
B • p = 12/52
C • p = 3/52
D • p = 4/52
 Learning Check TF
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• Choosing random individuals who

T/F walk by yields a random sample

• Probability predicts what kind of

T/F population is likely to be obtained
 Learning Check - Answers

• Not all individuals walk by, so not

False all have an equal chance of being
selected for the sample

• The population is given.

False Probability predicts what a sample
is likely to be like
 6.2 Probability and the
Normal Distribution
• Normal distribution is a common shape
– Symmetrical
– Highest frequency in the middle
– Frequencies taper off towards the extremes
• Defined by an equation
• Can be described by the proportions of
area contained in each section.
• z-scores are used to identify sections
 Figure 6.4
Normal Distribution with z-scores
 Characteristics of the
Normal Distribution
• Sections on the left side of the distribution
have the same area as corresponding
sections on the right
• Because z-scores define the sections, the
proportions of area apply to any normal
distribution
– Regardless of the mean
– Regardless of the standard deviation
 Figure 6.5
Distribution for Example 6.2
 The Unit Normal Table
• The proportion for only a few z-scores can
be shown graphically
• The complete listing of z-scores and
proportions is provided in the unit normal
table
• Unit Normal Table is provided in Appendix
B, Table B.1
 Figure 6.6
Portion of the Unit Normal Table
 Figure 6.7 Proportions
Corresponding to z = ±0.25
 Probability/Proportion & z-scores
• Unit normal table lists relationships
between z-score locations and proportions
in a normal distribution
• If you know the z-score, you can look up
the corresponding proportion
• If you know the proportion, you can use
the table to find a specific z-score location
• Probability is equivalent to proportion
 Figure 6.8
Distributions: Examples 6.3a—6.3c
 Figure 6.9
Distributions: Examples 6.4a—6.4b
 Learning Check
• Find the proportion of the normal curve
that corresponds to z > 1.50

A • p = 0.9332
B • p = 0.5000
C • p = 0.4332
D • p = 0.0668
 Learning Check - Answer
• Find the proportion of the normal curve
that corresponds to z > 1.50

A • p = 0.9332
B • p = 0.5000
C • p = 0.4332
D • p = 0.0668
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• For any negative z-score, the tail will

T/F be on the right hand side

• If you know the probability, you can

T/F find the corresponding z-score
 Learning Check - Answer

• For negative z-scores the tail will

False always be on the left side

• First find the proportion in the

True appropriate column then read the
z-score from the left column
 6.3 Probabilities/Proportions for Normally
Distributed Scores

• The probabilities given in the Unit Normal

Table will be accurate only for normally
distributed scores so the shape of the
distribution should be verified before using it.
• For normally distributed scores
– Transform the X scores (values) into z-scores
– Look up the proportions corresponding to the z-
score values.
 Figure 6.10
Distribution of IQ scores
 Figure 6.11
Example 6.6 Distribution
 Box 6.1 Percentile ranks
• Percentile rank is the percentage of
individuals in the distribution who have
scores that are less than or equal to the
specific score.
• Probability questions can be rephrased as
percentile rank questions.
 Figure 6.12
Example 6.7 Distribution
 Figure 6.13 Determining Normal
Distribution Probabilities/Proportions
 Figure 6.14
Commuting Time Distribution
 Figure 6.15
Commuting Time Distribution
 Learning Check
• Membership in MENSA requires a score of 130 on
the Stanford-Binet 5 IQ test, which has μ = 100 and
σ = 15. What proportion of the population
qualifies for MENSA?
A • p = 0.0228
B • p = 0.9772
C • p = 0.4772
D • p = 0.0456
 Learning Check - Answer
• Membership in MENSA requires a score of 130 on
the Stanford-Binet 5 IQ test, which has μ = 100 and σ
= 15. What proportion of the population qualifies for
MENSA?
A • p = 0.0228
B • p = 0.9772
C • p = 0.4772
D • p = 0.0456
 Learning Check
• Decide if each of the following statements
is True or False.

• It is possible to find the X score

T/F corresponding to a percentile rank in
a normal distribution

• If you know a z-score you can find

T/F the probability of obtaining that z-
score in a distribution of any shape
 Learning Check - Answer

• Find the z-score for the percentile

True rank, then transform it to X

• If a distribution is skewed the

False probability shown in the unit
normal table will not be accurate
 6.4 Looking Ahead to
Inferential Statistics
• Many research situations begin with a
population that forms a normal distribution
• A random sample is selected and receives a
treatment, to evaluate the treatment
• Probability is used to decide whether the
treated sample is “noticeably different” from
the population
 Figure 6.16
Research Study Conceptualization
 Figure 6.17
Research Study Conceptualization
 Figure 6.18
Demonstration 6.1