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Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability, emphasizing the use of Venn diagrams and tree diagrams to visualize and calculate probabilities. It explains the 'given that' statement, which narrows down the sample space when calculating probabilities. Additionally, it provides examples and formulas for calculating joint and conditional probabilities, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying concepts.

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infinitymathclass.3110
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2 views

Conditional Probability

The document discusses conditional probability, emphasizing the use of Venn diagrams and tree diagrams to visualize and calculate probabilities. It explains the 'given that' statement, which narrows down the sample space when calculating probabilities. Additionally, it provides examples and formulas for calculating joint and conditional probabilities, highlighting the importance of understanding the underlying concepts.

Uploaded by

infinitymathclass.3110
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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@westiesworkshop

Conditional Probability
@westiesworkshop
Complete the Venn Diagram
In a class of 20, there are

11 boys

5 Pupils with glasses B G 7


3 boys that wear glasses

8 3 2
Where should you start?

At the place with most information

Then fill in gaps – be careful as there


are already 3 in some groups!
@westiesworkshop
Working with probability
• When working with probability,
we often use fractions

• What is the probability of a


randomly selected person from B G 7
the class being a girl that does
not wear glasses?

7 people satisfy the 8 3 2


condition

7 Out of

20
20 – the total amount being
considered in the question
@westiesworkshop
Some quick questions

Find

3
P(B∩G) B G 7
20

13
P(BᴜG) 20
8 3 2
P(B’∩G) 2
20
@westiesworkshop
The ‘given that’ statement

• Sometimes a question may ask you to find the probability of an event, given that something
has already happened.

• This reduces the total amount being considered in the question (the denominator of the
fraction)

• It can also eliminate some of the amount that would normally satisfy the question (the
numerator of the fraction).
@westiesworkshop
The ‘given that’ statement

• Question: Given that a boy is


selected, what is the probability
that they wear glasses?
B G 7
• We are now only considering boys
– we can ignore all other values

3 people left still 8 3 2


have glasses

3 Out of

11
The amount of boys – the
‘given that’ statement
@westiesworkshop
Notation

• We use the ‘|’ symbol to mean


‘given that’
• P(G|B) means the probability that
G happens, given that B has
already happened (the previous
question). B G 7
• Note from the previous question
that this was

Probability both
8 3 2
happen
P(G∩B) Out of

P(B)
The ‘given that’
statement
@westiesworkshop
In General you can use the formula

P(A∩B)
= P(A|B)
P(B)
or

P(A∩B) = P(A|B) x P(B)


@westiesworkshop
Similarly P(A∩B)
= P(A|B)
P(B)
P(A’∩B)
P(A’|B) =
P(B)

P(A∩B’)
P(A|B’) =
P(B’)

And so on…
@westiesworkshop
Let’s have a look at some more examples

• In the following slides, the Venn diagrams or tree diagrams will all have been completed for
you

• In a test, however, this will normally be asked of you first.

• You would then use your completed Venn diagrams or tree diagrams to calculate the
probabilities

*Note you can always use the formulae to get to an answer quickly, but I like to visualise what
is going on in each case – this is more important when dealing with tree diagrams
@westiesworkshop
120 Pupils took a selection of subjects
48 took Geography
50 took History
23 took both History and Geography

• Find
H G 45
50
a) P(H) 120 27 23 25
23
b) P(G|H)
50

25
c) P(H’|(HUG))
75 *note that we could then simplify a) and c)
@westiesworkshop
What if we are already given probabilities?

• Follow the same approach


A B
Find 0.05 0.2 0.3
0.45 3
P(B|A’) 0.6
=
4 0.05
0.1 0.15
0.05 1
=
P(C|A∩B) 0.25 5

0.1 0.05
0.2 1
P(B∩C’|AUC) 0.6
=
3 C
@westiesworkshop
P(A) = P(B) = and P(B|A) = Find P(A’ ∩ B)

We need to start working out some


probabilities. Using the given that
statement, A has happened – let’s
ignore everything else.
A B
x= x
Let x be the intersection of A and
B, then
P(B|A) 1
x
20
7
x= 60

So xP(A’ ∩ B) The= only part of B left


‘what is the
=Remember Out of
probability of B?’
that now the total
2/5
‘given=
probability is out of 2/5 -> P(A) *Note that we could have found this straight away by using the formula
that A has happened…’ P(A∩B) = P(A|B) x P(B)
@westiesworkshop
P(B) = and P(A'|B') =
Work out P(A' ∩ B')
Given that B doesn’t happen (note that the probability of this is )

The probability that A doesn’t happen is

The only section left that is not A is on the outside


A B
Let’s call the probability of this region x
x
So =
3/4 3
x
28

x= x = *Again we could use the formula, but sometimes it is easier to visualise what is
going on. P(A’∩B’) = P(A’|B’) x P(B’)
@westiesworkshop

While you can always use logic to visually decode


questions like this, it is often easier to just use the
formula (especially for more complex questions).

This is not always the case, however, for tree diagrams.


@westiesworkshop
The performance of a cyclist in a race is affected by
whether it rains or not that day.

The probability the cyclist crashes is when it's


raining and when it's dry.
On any given day, the probability of rains is .

What is the probability it was raining given the cyclist


crashes?

As there are multiple, dependent events we would need to construct a


tree diagram
The performance of a cyclist in a race is affected by whether it rains or
not that day.
@westiesworkshop
The probability the cyclist crashes is when it's raining and when it's
dry.
On any given day, the probability of rains is .
7
What is the probability it was raining given the cyclist crashes? 7
Crash 60
12
First calculate the probabilities of all outcomes 1 Rains
– these are the only values we can use 5

5
No Crash 5
Given that the cyclist crashes 12
60
What is the probability it was raining? 1 4
12 Crash 60
4
5 Dry
7/60 =
11 44
11/60 12 No Crash 60
@westiesworkshop
Summary

When dealing with given that questions remember to only consider what has already
happened.

Fractions are often the best and most accurate way of leaving an answer

Make sure your knowledge of Venn diagrams is spot on so you know which regions the
question refers to

Find an approach that works best for you – if that is to simply use the formula then just use the
formula (but make sure you check your answers to see if they make sense)

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