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Simple Proba(2)

The document provides an overview of probability, its historical context, and its significance in statistics. It discusses various approaches to assigning probabilities, including A Priori, A Posteriori, and Subjective methods, along with examples illustrating these concepts. Additionally, it defines probability mathematically and presents real-life applications, such as predicting outcomes in gambling and assessing risks in health and finance.

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Ayessa Edrie Mamaril
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3 views

Simple Proba(2)

The document provides an overview of probability, its historical context, and its significance in statistics. It discusses various approaches to assigning probabilities, including A Priori, A Posteriori, and Subjective methods, along with examples illustrating these concepts. Additionally, it defines probability mathematically and presents real-life applications, such as predicting outcomes in gambling and assessing risks in health and finance.

Uploaded by

Ayessa Edrie Mamaril
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROBABILITY

STATISTICS
By: Liza D. Buitizon
INTRODUCTION
 Formal study of chance.

 It originated from the analysis of gambling games (or


games of chance) – predicting the likelihood/chance of an
outcome.

 It is important in the study of statistics as it provides a


bridge between descriptive and inferential statistics.
REAL LIFE APPLICATIONS
 Determining the probability of winning in lotto.
 Determining the chance of dengue infection in a
community with reported cases.
 Determining the chance of the price of a particular stock
increasing in a particular trading day
 Determining the strength and path of typhoons
APPROACHES IN ASSIGNING
PROBABILITIES TO EVENTS
 In general, a probability is a number attached to
an event which indicates the chance it will occur.
The larger the number, the more likely it is to
occur.

 Approaches:
A Priori
 A Posteriori
 Subjective
A PRIORI APPROACH
 Theoretical, axiomatic, classical

 Requires the construction of a model that will be used


in the computation or assignment of probabilities with
underlying assumptions.
A PRIORI APPROACH
 MODEL: Sample Space
 ASSUMPTION: Each outcome in S has the same
chance of occurring (equally likely outcomes)
 Under this assumption, the probability of an event
E occurring is
Number of outcomes/elements in E
P( E ) 
Number of outcomes/elements in S
 Involves counting.
A PRIORI APPROACH
Example:
Recall the experiment of tossing 3 fair coins
Since the coins are fair, outcomes are equally likely.

S {HHH , HHT , HTH , THH , HTT , THT , TTH , TTT }


Let E= be the event that two heads will occur

E {HHT , HTH , THH }


P(E) = 3/8
A POSTERIORI APPROACH
 Also called the relative frequency approach

 The probability of an event occurring is computed based


on the relative frequency of that event happening after
the random experiment is conducted a large number of
times.
A POSTERIORI APPROACH
 Example: Random exp’t. – toss three coins.
Suppose, the experiment is conducted 100 times
and the result are shown in the following table:

OUTCOME HHH HHT HTH THH HTT THT TTH TTT


FREQUENCY 11 9 13 15 12 18 17 5

Let E be the event of getting 2 heads:


E {HHT , HTH , THH }
9  13  15 37
P( E )   0.37
100 100
A POSTERIORI APPROACH
f ( A)
lim P ( A)
n  n
 The A posteriori probability is not always
equal to the A priori probability.
However, the two probabilities becomes
closer as the number of trials is
increases.
SUBJECTIVE APPROACH
 The assignment of a probability depends on
one’s personal assessment.
PROBABILITY DEFINITION
 Probability is the chance that something will happen.
 Probabilities are expressed mathematically as fractions
(1/6, 1/3, 8/9) or as decimals (.25, .5, .78) between 0 and
1.
 Assigning zero means that something can never happen;
and a probability of 1 indicates that something will surely
happen.
0 PA 1 for any event A
P  1 where  is the sample space
P  0
EXAMPLES:

 If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the


probability that it is a heart.

 A bag contains 6 red balls, 5 yellow balls and 3 green


balls. A ball is drawn at random. What is the
probability that the ball is: (a) green, (b) not yellow?

 The letters of the word ENGINEERING are written on


slips of paper, and are placed in a box. A slip of paper
is chosen at random. What is the probability that: (a)
the letter is vowel, (b) the letter is a consonant.
EXAMPLE:
A pilot plant has produced metallurgical batches which are summarized
as follows:
Low Strength High Strength
Low in 2 27
impurities
High in 12 4
impurities
If these results are representative of full-scale production, find estimated
probabilities that a production batch will be:
i) low in impurities
ii) high strength
iii) both high in impurities and high strength
iv) both high in impurities and low strength
PROBABILITY OF A COMPLEMENT
 This rule states that the probability that an event
A will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability
that it will occur.

PA' 1  PA

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