CPE/CSC

CPE/CSC 481:
481:
Knowledge-Based
Knowledge-Based
Systems
Systems
Dr. Franz J. Kurfess
Computer Science Department
Cal Poly

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Usage
Usage of
of the
the Slides
Slides
◆ these slides are intended for the students of my CPE/CSC
481 “Knowledge-Based Systems” class at Cal Poly SLO
◆ if you want to use them outside of my class, please let me know (
[email protected])
◆ I usually put together a subset for each quarter as a “Custom
Show”
◆ to view these, go to “Slide Show => Custom Shows”, select the
respective quarter, and click on “Show”
◆ in Apple Keynote, I use the “Hide” feature to achieve similar results
◆ To print them, I suggest to use the “Handout” option
◆ 4, 6, or 9 per page works fine
◆ Black & White should be fine; there are few diagrams where color
is important
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Overview
Overview Reasoning
Reasoning and
and
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
◆ Motivation
◆ Objectives
◆ Sources of Uncertainty and Inexactness in Reasoning
◆ Incorrect and Incomplete Knowledge
◆ Ambiguities
◆ Belief and Ignorance
◆ Probability Theory
◆ Bayesian Networks
◆ Certainty Factors
◆ Belief and Disbelief
◆ Dempster-Shafer Theory
◆ Evidential Reasoning
◆ Important Concepts and Terms
◆ Chapter Summary
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Motivation
Motivation
◆ reasoning for real-world problems involves missing
knowledge, inexact knowledge, inconsistent facts or
rules, and other sources of uncertainty
◆ while traditional logic in principle is capable of
capturing and expressing these aspects, it is not
very intuitive or practical
◆ explicit introduction of predicates or functions
◆ many expert systems have mechanisms to deal with
uncertainty
◆ sometimes introduced as ad-hoc measures, lacking a
sound foundation
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Objectives
Objectives
◆ be familiar with various sources of uncertainty and
imprecision in knowledge representation and reasoning
◆ understand the main approaches to dealing with
uncertainty
◆ probability theory
❖ Bayesian networks
❖ Dempster-Shafer theory
◆ important characteristics of the approaches
❖ differences between methods, advantages, disadvantages,
performance, typical scenarios
◆ evaluate the suitability of those approaches
◆ application of methods to scenarios or tasks
◆ apply selected approaches to simple problems
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Introduction
Introduction
◆ reasoning under uncertainty and with inexact knowledge
◆ frequently necessary for real-world problems
◆ heuristics
◆ ways to mimic heuristic knowledge processing
◆ methods used by experts
◆ empirical associations
◆ experiential reasoning
◆ based on limited observations
◆ probabilities
◆ objective (frequency counting)
◆ subjective (human experience )
◆ reproducibility
◆ willFranz
© 2002-2010 observations
J. Kurfess deliver the same results when repeated
Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Dealing
Dealing with
with Uncertainty
Uncertainty
◆ expressiveness
◆ can concepts used by humans be represented adequately?
◆ can the confidence of experts in their decisions be expressed?
◆ comprehensibility
◆ representation of uncertainty
◆ utilization in reasoning methods
◆ correctness
◆ probabilities
❖ adherence to the formal aspects of probability theory
◆ relevance ranking
❖ probabilities don’t add up to 1, but the “most likely” result is sufficient
◆ long inference chains
❖ tend to result in extreme (0,1) or not very useful (0.5) results
◆ computational complexity
◆ feasibility of calculations for practical purposes
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Sources
Sources of
of Uncertainty
Uncertainty
◆ data
◆ data missing, unreliable, ambiguous,
◆ representation imprecise, inconsistent, subjective, derived from
defaults, …
◆ expert knowledge
◆ inconsistency between different experts
◆ plausibility
❖ “best guess” of experts
◆ quality
❖ causal knowledge
❖ deep understanding
❖ statistical associations
❖ observations

◆ scope
❖ only current domain, or more general
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Sources
Sources of
of Uncertainty
Uncertainty
(cont.)
(cont.)
◆ knowledge representation
◆ restricted model of the real system
◆ limited expressiveness of the representation mechanism
◆ inference process
◆ deductive
❖ the derived result is formally correct, but inappropriate
❖ derivation of the result may take very long
◆ inductive
❖ new conclusions are not well-founded
❖ not enough samples
❖ samples are not representative

◆ unsound reasoning methods

❖ induction, non-monotonic, default reasoning
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Uncertainty
Uncertainty in
in
Individual
Individual Rules
Rules
◆ errors
◆ domain errors
◆ representation errors
◆ inappropriate application of the rule
◆ likelihood of evidence
◆ for each premise
◆ for the conclusion
◆ combination of evidence from multiple premises

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Uncertainty
Uncertainty and
and Multiple
Multiple
Rules
Rules
◆ conflict resolution
◆ if multiple rules are applicable, which one is selected
❖ explicit priorities, provided by domain experts
❖ implicit priorities derived from rule properties
❖ specificity of patterns, ordering of patterns
creation time of rules, most recent usage, …
◆ compatibility
◆ contradictions between rules
◆ subsumption
❖ one rule is a more general version of another one
◆ redundancy
◆ missing rules
◆ data fusion
❖ integration of data from multiple sources
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Basics
Basics of
of Probability
Probability
Theory
Theory
◆ mathematical approach for processing uncertain information
◆ sample space set
X = {x1, x2, …, xn}
◆ collection of all possible events
◆ can be discrete or continuous
◆ probability number P(xi) reflects the likelihood of an event x i to
occur
◆ non-negative value in [0,1]
◆ total probability of the sample space (sum of probabilities) is 1
◆ for mutually exclusive events, the probability for at least one of them is the
sum of their individual probabilities
◆ experimental probability
❖ based on the frequency of events
◆ subjective probability
❖ based on expert assessment
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Compound
Compound Probabilities
Probabilities
◆ describes independent events
◆ do not affect each other in any way
◆ joint probability of two independent events A and B
P(A ∩ B) = n(A ∩ B) / n(s) = P(A) * P (B)
❖ where n(S) is the number of elements in S
◆ union probability of two independent events A and B
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A) * P (B)

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Conditional
Conditional
Probabilities
Probabilities
◆ describes dependent events
◆ affect each other in some way
◆ conditional probability
of event A given that event B has already occurred
P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Advantages
Advantages and
and Problems:
Problems:
Probabilities
Probabilities
◆ advantages
◆ formal foundation
◆ reflection of reality (a posteriori)
◆ problems
◆ may be inappropriate
❖ the future is not always similar to the past
◆ inexact or incorrect
❖ especially for subjective probabilities
◆ ignorance
❖ probabilities must be assigned even if no information is available
❖ assigns an equal amount of probability to all such items

◆ non-local reasoning
❖ requires the consideration of all available evidence, not only from the rules currently
under consideration
◆ no compositionality
❖ complex statements with conditional dependencies can not be decomposed into
independent parts
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Bayesian
Bayesian Approaches
Approaches
◆ derive the probability of a cause given a symptom
◆ has gained importance recently due to advances in
efficiency
◆ more computational power available
◆ better methods
◆ especially useful in diagnostic systems
◆ medicine, computer help systems
◆ inverse probability
◆ inverse to conditional probability of an earlier event given
that a later one occurred

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Bayes’
Bayes’ Rule
Rule for
for Single
Single
Event
Event
◆ single hypothesis H, single event E
P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H)) / P(E)
or
◆ P(H|E) = (P(E|H) * P(H) /
(P(E|H) * P(H) + P(E|¬H) * P(¬H) )

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Bayes’
Bayes’ Rule
Rule for
for Multiple
Multiple
Events
Events
◆ multiple hypotheses Hi, multiple events E 1, …, En
P(Hi|E1, E2, …, En)
= (P(E1, E2, …, En|Hi) * P(Hi)) / P(E1, E2, …, En)
or
P(Hi|E1, E2, …, En)
= (P(E1|Hi) * P(E2|Hi) * …* P(En|Hi) * P(Hi)) /
Σk P(E1|Hk) * P(E2|Hk) * … * P(En|Hk)*
P(Hk)

with independent pieces of evidence Ei

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Using
Using Bayesian
Bayesian Reasoning:
Reasoning:
Spam
Spam Filters
Filters

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Advantages
Advantages and
and Problems
Problems of
of
Bayesian
Bayesian Reasoning
Reasoning
◆ advantages
◆ sound theoretical foundation
◆ well-defined semantics for decision making
◆ problems
◆ requires large amounts of probability data
❖ sufficient sample sizes
◆ subjective evidence may not be reliable
◆ independence of evidences assumption often not valid
◆ relationship between hypothesis and evidence is reduced
to a number
◆ explanations for the user difficult
◆ high computational overhead
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Certainty
Certainty Factors
Factors
◆ denotes the belief in a hypothesis H given that some
pieces of evidence E are observed
◆ no statements about the belief means that no
evidence is present
◆ in contrast to probabilities, Bayes’ method
◆ works reasonably well with partial evidence
◆ separation of belief, disbelief, ignorance
◆ shares some foundations with Dempster-Shafer
(DS) theory, but is more practical
◆ introduced in an ad-hoc way in MYCIN
◆ later mapped to DS theory
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Belief
Belief and
and Disbelief
Disbelief
◆ measure of belief
◆ degree to which hypothesis H is supported by evidence E
◆ MB(H,E) = 1 if P(H) = 1
(P(H|E) - P(H)) / (1- P(H)) otherwise
◆ measure of disbelief
◆ degree to which doubt in hypothesis H is supported by
evidence E
◆ MD(H,E) = 1 if P(H) = 0
(P(H) - P(H|E)) / P(H)) otherwise

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Certainty
Certainty Factor
Factor
◆ certainty factor CF
◆ ranges between -1 (denial of the hypothesis H) and +1
(confirmation of H)
◆ allows the ranking of hypotheses
◆ difference between belief and disbelief
CF (H,E) = MB(H,E) - MD (H,E)
◆ combining antecedent evidence
◆ use of premises with less than absolute confidence
❖ E1 ∧ E2 = min(CF(H, E1), CF(H, E2))
❖ E1 ∨ E2 = max(CF(H, E1), CF(H, E2))
❖ ¬E = ¬ CF(H, E)

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Combining
Combining Certainty
Certainty
Factors
Factors
◆ certainty factors that support the same conclusion
◆ several rules can lead to the same conclusion
◆ applied incrementally as new evidence becomes
available

CFrev(CFold, CFnew) =
CFold + CFnew(1 - CFold) if both > 0
CFold + CFnew(1 + CFold) if both < 0
CFold + CFnew / (1 - min(|CFold|, |CFnew|)) if one < 0

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Characteristics
Characteristics of
of
Certainty
Certainty Factors
Factors
Aspect Probability MB MD CF
Certainly true P(H|E) = 1 1 0 1
Certainly false P(¬H|E) = 1 0 1 -1
No evidence P(H|E) = P(H) 0 0 0
◆ Ranges
◆ measure of belief 0 ≤ MB ≤ 1
◆ measure of disbelief 0 ≤ MD ≤ 1
◆ certainty factor -1 ≤ CF ≤ +1

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Advantages
Advantages and
and Problems
Problems of
of
Certainty
Certainty Factors
Factors
◆ Advantages
◆ simple implementation
◆ reasonable modeling of human experts’ belief
❖ expression of belief and disbelief
◆ successful applications for certain problem classes
◆ evidence relatively easy to gather
❖ no statistical base required
◆ Problems
◆ partially ad hoc approach
❖ theoretical foundation through Dempster-Shafer theory was developed later
◆ combination of non-independent evidence unsatisfactory
◆ new knowledge may require changes in the certainty factors of existing
knowledge
◆ certainty factors can become the opposite of conditional probabilities for
certain cases
© 2002-2010
◆ not Franz J. Kurfess
suitable for long inference chains Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Dempster-Shafer
Dempster-Shafer Theory
Theory
◆ mathematical theory of evidence
◆ uncertainty is modeled through a range of probabilities
❖ instead of a single number indicating a probability
◆ sound theoretical foundation
◆ allows distinction between belief, disbelief, ignorance (non-
belief)
◆ certainty factors are a special case of DS theory

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 DS
DS Theory
Theory Notation
Notation
◆ environment Θ = {O1, O2, ..., On}
◆ set of objects Oi that are of interest
◆ Θ = {O1, O2, ..., On}
◆ frame of discernment FD
◆ an environment whose elements may be possible answers
◆ only one answer is the correct one
◆ mass probability function m
◆ assigns a value from [0,1] to every item in the frame of
discernment
◆ describes the degree of belief in analogy to the mass of a physical
object
◆ mass probability m(A)
◆ portion of the total mass probability that is assigned to a specific
element
© 2002-2010 A of FD
Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Belief
Belief and
and Certainty
Certainty
◆ belief Bel(A) in a set A
◆ sum of the mass probabilities of all the proper subsets of A
❖ all the mass that supports A
◆ likelihood that one of its members is the conclusion
◆ also called support function
◆ plausibility Pls(A)
◆ maximum belief of A
◆ upper bound for the range of belief
◆ certainty Cer(A)
◆ interval [Bel(A), Pls(A)]
❖ also called evidential interval
◆ expresses the range of belief
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Combination
Combination of
of Mass
Mass
Probabilities
Probabilities
◆ combining two masses in such a way that the new
mass represents a consensus of the contributing
pieces of evidence
◆ set intersection puts the emphasis on common elements
of evidence, rather than conflicting evidence
m1 ⊕ m2 (C) = Σ X ∩ Y m1(X) * m2(Y)
= C m1(X) * m2(Y) / (1- ΣX ∩ Y)
= C m1(X) * m2(Y)
where X, Y are hypothesis subsets
C is their intersection C = X ∩ Y
⊕ is the orthogonal or direct sum
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Differences
Differences Probabilities
Probabilities
-- DS
DS Theory
Theory

Aspect Probabilities Dempster-Shafer

Aggregate Sum ∑i Pi = 1 m(Θ) ≤ 1

Subset X ⊆ Y P(X) ≤ P(Y) m(X) > m(Y) allowed
relationship X, ¬X P(X) + P (¬X) = 1 m(X) + m(¬X) ≤ 1
(ignorance)

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Evidential
Evidential Reasoning
Reasoning
◆ extension of DS theory that deals with uncertain,
imprecise, and possibly inaccurate knowledge
◆ also uses evidential intervals to express the
confidence in a statement
◆ lower bound is called support (Spt) in evidential reasoning,
and belief (Bel) in Dempster-Shafer theory
◆ upper bound is plausibility (Pls)

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Evidential
Evidential Intervals
Intervals
Meaning Evidential Interval
Completely true [1,1]
Completely false [0,0]
Completely ignorant [0,1]
Tends to support [Bel,1] where 0 < Bel < 1
Tends to refute [0,Pls] where 0 < Pls < 1
Tends to both support and [Bel,Pls] where 0 < Bel ≤ Pls<
refute 1
Bel: belief; lower bound of the evidential interval
Pls: plausibility; upper bound

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Advantages
Advantages and
and Problems
Problems of
of
Dempster-Shafer
Dempster-Shafer
◆ advantages
◆ clear, rigorous foundation
◆ ability to express confidence through intervals
❖ certainty about certainty
◆ proper treatment of ignorance
◆ problems
◆ non-intuitive determination of mass probability
◆ very high computational overhead
◆ may produce counterintuitive results due to normalization
◆ usability somewhat unclear

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Post-Test
Post-Test

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

 Important
Important Concepts
Concepts and
and
Terms
Terms
◆ Bayesian networks knowledge
◆ belief knowledge
representation
◆ certainty factor
mass function
◆ compound probability probability
◆ conditional probability reasoning
◆ Dempster-Shafer theory rule
◆ disbelief sample
set
◆ evidential reasoning uncertainty
◆ inference
◆ inference mechanism
◆ ignorance
© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty
 Summary
Summary Reasoning
Reasoning and
and
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
◆ many practical tasks require reasoning under
uncertainty
◆ missing, inexact, inconsistent knowledge
◆ variations of probability theory are often combined
with rule-based approaches
◆ works reasonably well for many practical problems
◆ Bayesian networks have gained some prominence
◆ improved methods, sufficient computational power

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty

© 2002-2010 Franz J. Kurfess Reasoning under Uncertainty