Binomial Probability Distribution

Introduction to the Binomial Distribution

• Binomial probability distributions are important because they allow us to
deal with circumstances in which the outcomes belong to two relevant
categories:
– Acceptable/defective items
– Yes/no responses
– Pass/fail

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 Binomial Probability Distribution (1 of 2)
• Binomial Probability Distribution
– A binomial probability distribution results from a
procedure that meets these four requirements:
1. The procedure has a fixed number of trials. (A
trial is a single observation.)
2. The trials must be independent, meaning that the
outcome of any individual trial doesn’t affect the
probabilities in the other trials.

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 Binomial Probability Distribution (2 of 2)
• Binomial Probability Distribution
– A binomial probability distribution results from a
procedure that meets these four requirements:
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into
exactly two categories, commonly referred to as
success and failure.
4. The probability of a success remains the same in
all trials.

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 Notation for Binomial Probability Distributions (1 of
3)

S and F (success and failure) denote the two

possible categories of all outcomes.
P(S) = p (p = probability of a success)
P(F) = 1 − p = q (q = probability of a failure)
n the fixed number of trials

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 Notation for Binomial Probability Distributions (2 of
3)

x - a specific number of successes in n trials, so x can

be any whole number between 0 and n, inclusive
p - probability of success in one of the n trials
q - probability of failure in one of the n trials
P(x) - probability of getting exactly x successes among
the n trials

NOTE: The word success as used here is arbitrary and

does not necessarily represent something good/positive
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 Example: Twitter (1 of 8)
When an adult is randomly selected (with replacement),
there is a 0.85 probability that this person knows what
Twitter is. Suppose that we want to find the probability
that exactly three of five randomly selected adults know
what Twitter is.
a. Does this procedure result in a binomial distribution?
b. If this procedure does result in a binomial distribution,
identify the values of n, x, p, and q.

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 Example: Twitter (2 of 8)
Solution
a. This procedure does satisfy the requirements for a binomial
distribution, as shown below.
1. The number of trials n = 5.
2. The 5 trials are independent because the probability of any adult
knowing Twitter is not affected by results from other selected adults.
3. Each of the 5 trials has two categories of outcomes: The selected
person either knows what Twitter is or that person does not know
what Twitter is.
4. For each randomly selected adult, there is a 0.85 probability that this
person knows what Twitter is, and that probability remains the same
for each of the five selected people.

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 Example: Twitter (4 of 8)
Solution
b. Having concluded that the given procedure does result in a binomial
distribution, we now proceed to identify the values of n, x, p, and q.
1. With five randomly selected adults, we have n = 5.
2. We want the probability of exactly three who know what Twitter is, so
x = 3.
3. The probability of success (getting a person who knows what Twitter
is) for one selection is 0.85, so p = 0.85.
4. The probability of failure (not getting someone who knows what
Twitter is) is 1- 0.85 = 0.15, so q = 0.15.

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 Treating Dependent Events as Independent
5% Guideline for Cumbersome Calculations
When sampling without replacement and the sample
size is no more than 5% of the size of the population,
treat the selections as being independent (even though
they are actually dependent).

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 Methods for Finding Binomial Probabilities (1 of 4)
Method 1: Binomial Probability Formula

P(x) =

where
n = number of trials
x = number of successes among n trials
p = probability of success in any one trial
q = probability of failure in any one trial (q = 1 − p)

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 Example: Twitter (7 of 8)
Given that there is a 0.85 probability that a randomly
selected adult knows what Twitter is, use the binomial
probability formula to find the probability that when five
adults are randomly selected, exactly three of them know
what Twitter is. That is, apply the previous formula to find
P(3) given that n = 5, x = 3, p = 0.85, and q = 0.15.

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 Example: Twitter (8 of 8)
Solution
Using the given values of n, x, p, and q in the binomial
probability formula, we get

The probability of getting exactly three adults who know

Twitter among five randomly selected adults is 0.138.
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 Calculating Binomial Probabilities Using Excel

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 Methods for Finding Binomial Probabilities (4 of 4)
Table A-1 in Appendix A (In Stats Main Text)lists binomial
probabilities for select values of n and p. It cannot be used if n > 8
or if the probability p is not one of the 13 values included in the
table.
To use the table of binomial probabilities:
1. Locate n and the desired corresponding value of x. At this stage,
one row of numbers should be isolated.
2. Now align that row with the desired probability of p by using the
column across the top. The isolated number represents the
desired probability.
Note:A very small probability, such as 0.000064, is indicated by 0+.
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 Example: Devil of a Problem (1 of 3)
Based on a Harris poll, 60% of adults believe in the
devil. Assuming that we randomly select five adults, use
Table A-1 to find the following:
a. The probability that exactly three of the five adults believe
in the devil
b. The probability that the number of adults who believe in
the devil is at least two

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 Solution in Excel

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 Solution Using the Binomial Probability Table

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 Example: Devil of a Problem (3 of 3)
Solution
b. The phrase “at least two” successes means that the
number of successes is 2 or 3 or 4 or 5.

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 Solution in Excel

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 Solution in Excel

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 Solution in Excel

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 • If using the Binom.DIST formula for situation where you are finding probability less than x, or less than or equal to x,
Cumulative = TRUE. This calculates the probability up to the Number_s value inputted starting with P(X=0).

• Example to find P(X<3), allow Number_s to be 2. To find P(X≤ 3), allow Number_s to be 3

• If using the Binom.DIST formula for situation where you are finding probability greater than x, or greater than or equal to x,
Cumulative = TRUE. This calculates the probability up to the Number_s value inputted starting with P(X=0). So to find a
value greater than, or greater than or equal to you will need to use the complement calculation.

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 Exercises Homework
• Use Table A-1 as well as the formula, to find the probability of x successes
given that the probability p of successes on a given trial:
1. n = 2, x= 0, p= 0.01
2. n = 4, x=3, p=0.95
3. n= 8, x=4, p=0.95

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 Poisson Probability Distribution

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 Poisson Probability Distribution (1 of 2)
• Poisson Probability Distribution
– A Poisson probability distribution is a discrete probability distribution
that applies to occurrences of some event over a specified interval.
The random variable x is the number of occurrences of the event in an
interval. The interval can be time, distance, area, volume, or some
similar unit.
– Examples of Poisson Distributions:
 # of internet users logging onto a website
 # of patients arriving at an emergency room in an hour
 # of Atlantic hurricanes in a year

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 Poisson Probability Distribution (2 of 2)
The probability of the event occurring x times over an
interval is given by

where e  2.71828, µ = mean number of occurrences

of the event in the intervals

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 Requirements for the Poisson Probability
Distribution
1. The random variable x is the number of occurrences
of an event in some interval.
2. The occurrences must be random.
3. The occurrences must be independent of each other.
4. The occurrences must be uniformly distributed over
the interval being used.

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 Poisson Probability Distribution Parameters and
Properties
Parameters of the Poisson Probability Distribution

Properties of the Poisson Probability Distribution

• A particular Poisson distribution is determined only
by the mean, µ.
• A Poisson distribution has possible x values of 0,
1, 2, . . . with no upper limit.

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 Example: Atlantic Hurricanes (1 of 5)
For the 55-year period since 1960, there were 336
Atlantic hurricanes. Assume the Poisson distribution.
a. Find µ, the mean number of hurricanes per year.
b. Find the probability that in a randomly selected year,
there are exactly 8 hurricanes. Find P(8), where P(x) is
the probability of x Atlantic hurricanes in a year.

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 Example: Atlantic Hurricanes (2 of 5)
For the 55-year period since 1960, there were 336
Atlantic hurricanes. Assume the Poisson distribution.
c. In this 55-year period, there were actually 5 years
with 8 Atlantic hurricanes. How does this actual result
compare to the probability found in part (b)? Does the
Poisson distribution appear to be a good model in this
case?

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 Example: Atlantic Hurricanes (3 of 5)
Solution
a. The Poisson distribution applies because we are
dealing with the occurrences of an event (hurricanes)
over some interval (a year). The mean number of
hurricanes per year is

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 Example: Atlantic Hurricanes (4 of 5)
Solution
b. The probability of x = 8 hurricanes in a year is as
follows (with x = 8, µ = 6.1, and e = 2.71828):

The probability of exactly 8 hurricanes in a year is

P(8) = 0.107.
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 Solution in Excel

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 Example: Atlantic Hurricanes (5 of 5)
Solution
c. The probability of P(8) = 0.107 from part (b) is the
likelihood of getting 8 Atlantic hurricanes in 1 year. In
55 years, the expected number of years with 8 Atlantic
hurricanes is 55 × 0.107 =5.9 years. The expected
number of years with 8 hurricanes is 5.9, which is
reasonably close to the 5 years that actually had 8
hurricanes, so in this case, the Poisson model appears
to work quite well.

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 Poisson Distribution as Approximation to
Binomial (1 of 2)
The Poisson distribution is sometimes used to
approximate the binomial distribution when n is large
and p is small. One rule of thumb is to use such an
approximation when the following two requirements are
both satisfied.
1. ​n ≥ 100
2. ​np ≤ 10

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 Poisson Distribution as Approximation to
Binomial (2 of 2)
If both requirements are satisfied and we want to use
the Poisson distribution as an approximation to the
binomial distribution, we need a value for µ.
Mean for Poisson as an Approximation to Binomial
µ = np

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 Example: Maine Pick 4 (1 of 4)
In the Maine Pick 4 game, you pay 50¢ to select a
sequence of four digits (0–9), such as 1377. If you play
this game once every day, find the probability of winning
at least once in a year with 365 days.

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 Example: Maine Pick 4 (2 of 4)
Solution

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 Example: Maine Pick 4 (3 of 4)
Solution
Having found the value of µ, we can proceed to find the
probability for specific values of x. We want the
probability that x is “at least 1,”. We will use the strategy
of first finding P(0), the probability of no wins in 365
days. The probability of at least one win can then be
found by subtracting that result from 1. We find P(0) by
using x = 0, µ = 0.0365, and e = 2.71828, as shown
here:

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 Example: Maine Pick 4 (4 of 4)
Solution
Using the Poisson distribution as an approximation to
the binomial distribution, we find that there is a 0.9642
probability of no wins, so the probability of at least one
win is 1 − 0.9642 = 0.0358. If we use the binomial
distribution, we get a probability of 0.0358, so the
Poisson distribution works quite well here.

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 • For P of at least 1 then we are finding the probability that x is 1 or more so find the complement: 1 – [P(X=0)] = 1-
0.96416 = 0.0358

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 45

Exercise 1 – Poisson Distribution

• In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution applies;

assume that
• the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States is 6.1
per year; and proceed to find the indicated probability

• 5. Hurricanes
a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 5 hurricanes.
b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 5 hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of 55 years
in which 8 years had 5 hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well
here?
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 46

Solution

a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 5 hurricanes.

b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 5

hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of
55 years in which 8 years had 5 hurricanes? Does the Poisson
distribution work well here?
•
μ = 6.1
a. P(5) = 0.158
b. In 55 years, the expected number of years with 5
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 47

Breakout Room Exercise 1 – Poisson Distribution

• In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution
applies; assume that
• the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States
is 6.1 per year; and proceed to find the indicated probability

• 6. Hurricanes
a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be no hurricanes.
b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have no
hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of
55
Copyright © years
2018, inPearson
2014, 2012 which there
Education, were
Inc. All Rights no years without any hurricanes? Does
Reserved
 48

Solution
a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be no hurricanes.
b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have no hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of 55 years in which
there were no years without any hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well
here?
•
• μ = 6.1
a. P(0) = 0.00224
b. In 55 years, the expected number of years with 0 hurricanes is: x.P(x) = 55
× 0.00224 = 0.123
c. The expected value of 0.123 is close to the actual value of 0 years, so the
Poisson distribution works well here.
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 49

Breakout Room Exercise 2 – Poisson Distribution

• In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution
applies; assume that
• the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States
is 6.1 per year; and proceed to find the indicated probability

• 7. Hurricanes
a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 7 hurricanes.
b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 7
hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of
55
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2018, inPearson
2014, 2012 which 7 Inc.
Education, years had
All Rights 7 hurricanes? Does the Poisson
Reserved
 50

Solution

a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 7 hurricanes.

b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 7 hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of 55 years in
which 7 years had 7 hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well here?
•
μ = 6.1

a. P(7) = 0.1399
b. In 55 years, the expected number of years with 0 hurricanes is: x.P(x)
= 55 × 0.1399 = 7.7
c. The expected value of 7.7 is close to the actual value of 7 years, so
the
Copyright Poisson
© 2018, distribution
2014, 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Allworks well here.
Rights Reserved
 51

Breakout Room Exercise 3 – Poisson Distribution

• In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution applies;
assume that
• the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States is 6.1
per year; and proceed to find the indicated probability

• 8. Hurricanes
a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 4 hurricanes.
b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 4 hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of 55 years
in which 10 years had 4 hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well
here?
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 52

Solution
a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 4 hurricanes.
b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 4 hurricanes?
c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of 55 years in
which 10 years had 4 hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well here?
•
μ = 6.1

a. P(4) = 0.1294
b. In 55 years, the expected number of years with 4 hurricanes is: x.P(x)
= 55 × 0.1294 = 7.1
c. The expected value of 7.1 is not close to the actual value of 4 years,
so the Poisson distribution does not work well here.

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