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 VCE GENERAL MATHEMATICS UNITS 3&4

CHAPTER 1: INVESTIGATING DATA DISTRIBUTIONS

NEW!

Time series data

Click to edit lesson
and their graphs
Presented by Tal Ellinson

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What's in this lesson?
Study design dot point

• [qualitative features of time series plots; Features of time series plots1

recognition of features such as trend
(long-term direction), seasonality Time series on calculators2
(systematic, calendar related movements)
and irregular fluctuations (unsystematic,
short-term fluctuations); possible outliers
and their sources, including one-off
real-world events, and signs of structural
change such as a discontinuity in the
me series1,2]

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Features of time series plots – trends

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Features of time series plots – trends

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Features of time series plots – trends
Key takeaway
Trend: the long-term direction of a time
series plot.

Choose between ‘increasing trend’,

‘decreasing trend’ and ‘no trend’.

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Features of time series plots – seasonality

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Features of time series plots – seasonality

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Features of time series plots – seasonality
Key takeaway
Seasonality: systematic, calendar (e.g.
yearly, monthly, weekly, daily) related
movements.

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Features of time series plots – cycles?

Did you know?

While every textbook
would make you think
otherwise, ’cycles’ are
not mentioned in the
study design.

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Features of time series plots – irregular fluctuations

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Features of time series plots – irregular fluctuations

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Features of time series plots – irregular fluctuations
Key takeaway
Irregular fluctuations: unsystematic,
short-term fluctuations in a time series.
They are found in almost every time series
that represents real world data.

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Features of time series plots – outliers

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Features of time series plots – outliers

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Features of time series plots – outliers
Key takeaway
Outlier: an individual, abnormal datapoint.

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Features of time series plots – structural change

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Features of time series plots – structural change
Key takeaway
Structural change: A sudden, fundamental
change in the behaviour of a time series.

A sign of a structural change is a

‘discontinuity’ (a sharp drop or rise from
one point to the next).

Example
What is a stock split? A ‘stock split’ is an action
by a company that has no impact on the total
value of an owner’s shares. In a 2:1 stock split,

an owner’s shares halve in price and the owner

gets double the shares. Although these
structural changes are common, you won’t see
them in charts of share prices because the
historical time series are adjusted accordingly.

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Multiple choice activity

The wind speed at a city location is measured A. irregular fluctuations only.

throughout the day. The time series plot below
shows the daily maximum wind speed, B. seasonality with irregular fluctuations.
in kilometres per hour, over a three-week C. a decreasing trend with irregular fluctuations.
period.
D. an increasing trend with irregular fluctuations.
The time series is best described as having…
E. I don’t know.

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Multiple choice – response

The wind speed at a city location is measured A. irregular fluctuations only.

throughout the day. The time series plot below
shows the daily maximum wind speed, B. seasonality with irregular fluctuations.
in kilometres per hour, over a three-week C. a decreasing trend with irregular fluctuations.
period.
D. an increasing trend with irregular
The time series is best described as having… fluctuations.

E. I don’t know.

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Multiple choice activity

The time series plot below displays the A. random variation only
number of guests staying at a holiday resort
during summer, autumn, winter and spring for B. decreasing trend with seasonality
the years 2007 to 2012 inclusive. C. seasonality only
Which one of the following best describes the D. increasing trend with seasonality
pattern in the time series?
E. I don’t know.

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Multiple choice – response

The time series plot below displays the A. random variation only
number of guests staying at a holiday resort
during summer, autumn, winter and spring for B. decreasing trend with seasonality
the years 2007 to 2012 inclusive. C. seasonality only
Which one of the following best describes the D. increasing trend with seasonality
pattern in the time series?
E. I don’t know.

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Multiple choice activity

The time series plot below shows the revenue A. no overall trend.
from sales (in dollars) each month made
by a Queensland souvenir shop over B. positive skew.
a three-year period. C. an increasing trend only.
The time series plot indicates that, over the D. an increasing trend with seasonal variation.
three-year period, revenue from sales each
month showed… E. I don’t know.

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Multiple choice – response

The time series plot below shows the revenue A. no overall trend.
from sales (in dollars) each month made
by a Queensland souvenir shop over B. positive skew.
a three-year period. C. an increasing trend only.
The time series plot indicates that, over the D. an increasing trend with seasonal
three-year period, revenue from sales each variation.
month showed…
E. I don’t know.

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Time series on calculators
Key takeaway
A time series is a set of data where
explanatory variable is a measure of time.

When we draw time series plots, we draw

the scatterplot and then ‘dot-to-dot’
connect the points with straight lines.

TI-Nspire
1. Plot the scatterplot with the usual
method
2. Hover the mouse over white space
3. Ctrl, menu, ‘connect data points’

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Multiple choice activity

Which of these datasets is not a time series?

A. B.

C. D.

E. I don’t know.

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Multiple choice – response

Which of these datasets is not a time series?

A. B.

C. D.

E. I don’t know.

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Summary
Structural change:
Trend: the long-
a sudden,
term direction
fundamental change
of a time
in the behaviour
series plot.
of a time series.
Choose between
‘increasing trend’, A sign of a structural
‘decreasing trend’ change
and ‘no trend’. is a ‘discontinuity’
(a sharp drop or rise
Seasonality: from one point to the
systematic, next)
calendar (e.g.
yearly, monthly,
weekly, daily)
related
movements.

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Summary

Irregular fluctuations: Key takeaway What’s coming next

unsystematic, A time series is a set of data
Smoothing –
short-term moving means
where the explanatory variable is
fluctuations in a time
a measure of time.
series. They are
found in almost When we draw time series plots,
every time series we draw the scatterplot and then
that represents real ‘dot-to-dot’ connect the points
world data. with straight lines.
TI-Nspire
Outlier: an individual, 1. Plot the scatterplot with
abnormal datapoint. the usual method
2. Hover the mouse over
white space
3. Ctrl, menu, ‘connect
data points’

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Image credits and further material links
Further material links:
• Page 3:
Australian climate variability & change – Time series Graph | Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology –
Webpage
• Page 3:
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores Time Series/Trends Charts | Business and Industry | United States Cen
sus Bureau – Webpage
• Page 3: Cases in England | GOV.UKCoronavirus in the UK – Webpage
• Page 3: The Australian Economy and Finical Markets | Chart Pack – PDF
Image attribution:
• Page 1: Image created by vectorjuice - freepik.com
• Page 1: Image created by freepik – freepik.com
• Page 1: Image created by pch.vector – freepik.com
• Page 1: All emojis designed by OpenMoji – the open-source emoji and icon project. License: CC BY-SA 4.0
• Page 2: Reproduced by permission of the Bureau of Meteorology, © 2022 Commonwealth of Australia CC BY
4.0
• Page 2: Image used under Public Domain from United States Census Bureau
• Page 2: © The archival resources of the Commonwealth in custody of the Reserve Bank of Australia by
agreement with the National Archives of Australia CC BY 4.0
• Page 2: Image contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government License v3.0. 32
© Tal Ellinson & Edrolo 2022
Image credits and question sources
Image attribution:
• Pages 28-29: 2008 VCAA EXAM 1 Section A Q12
• Pages 28-29: 2018 VCAA EXAM 2 Section A Q3
• Pages 28-29: 2013 VCAA EXAM 1 Section A Q13
• Pages 28-29: 2015 VCAA EXAM 1 Section A Q4
Question sources:
• Pages 21-22: 2017 VCAA Exam 1 Section A Q13
• Pages 23-24: 2013 VCAA Exam 1 Section A Q12
• Pages 25-26: 2007 VCAA Exam 1 Section A Q11
• Pages 28-29: Questions are written by Tal Ellinson.

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as a result of accessing, using or relying on the content. Current and past VCAA exams and
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