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Chapter 1-2

The document outlines the design period and various methods for population forecasting relevant to water supply projects. It details methods such as arithmetic, geometric, incremental increases, decrease rate, and logistic curve methods, along with their applicability and formulas. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of considering factors like project funding, material lifespan, and population growth trends when determining the design period and forecasting population changes.

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idosaadula74
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5 views20 pages

Chapter 1-2

The document outlines the design period and various methods for population forecasting relevant to water supply projects. It details methods such as arithmetic, geometric, incremental increases, decrease rate, and logistic curve methods, along with their applicability and formulas. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of considering factors like project funding, material lifespan, and population growth trends when determining the design period and forecasting population changes.

Uploaded by

idosaadula74
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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PART II: DESIGN PERIOD & POPULATION

FORECASTING
Contents
Design period
Population forecasting methods
1. Arithmetic increases method
2. Geometric increase method
3. Incremental increase method
4. Decrease rate method
5. Method used by Ethiopians statistic
authority (CSA Method)
6. Simple graphical method
7. Logistic curve method
Design period
• It is the number of years for which the designs of the
water works have been done
• The period should neither be to short nor too long
• Most water works are designed for design period of 22
– 30 years
• There are points that should be kept in mind while
fixing the design period
Funds available for the completion of the project
Life of the pipe and other structural materials
Anticipated expansion rate of the town
Rate of interest on the loans
Population forecasting
• The design of the water supply project is done on
the basis of projected population at the end of the
design period
• Factors affecting changes in population are:
Increase due to births
Decrease due to deaths
Increase/decrease due to migration
Methods of population forecasting
1. Arithmetic increases method
2. Geometric increase method
3. Incremental increase method
4. Decrease rate method
5. Simple graphical method
6. Master plan curve method
7. Logistic curve method
8. Method used by Ethiopians statistic
authority
1. Arithmetic increases method
• It depends on the assumption that the population is
increasing at a constant rate i.e. the rate of change of
population with time is constant
Pn = Future population
Po = initial population
n = no of decade
k = average arithmetic increase
 Applicable for
 Large & oldest city
 City with no industrial growth
 Town that reached a saturation
 Town with maximum development
 Yields lower result for rapidly growing cities
Example-1
The following data have been noted from the
census department. Calculate the probable
population in the year 1980, 1990 & 2000 by using
arithmetic increase method
2. Geometric increase method
• This method is based on the assumption that the
percentage increase in population from decade to decade
remains constant
• This method is mostly applicable for growing towns and
cities having vast scope of expansion
• If the present population is Po and average percentage growth is r, the
population at the end of n decade will be:
P1 = Po + rPo = Po (1+r)
P2 = P1 + rP1 = P1(1+r) = Po (1+r)(1+r)
P3 = P2 + rP2 = P2 (1+r) = Po (1+r) (1+r) (1+r)

Therefore, , r = average % increase


3. Incremental increase method
• This method is improvement over the arithmetic increase
methods
• The average increase in the population is determined by the
arithmetical method and is added to the average of the net
incremental increase multiplied by future decade
• It is suitable for an average size town under normal condition
where the growth rate is found to be in increasing order
Pn = Po + n(k + I)
Where,
Pn = population expected in n decades
Po = initial population
k = Average arithmetic increase
I = Average incremental increase
n = number of decades
Example 3: Forecast the population of example 1 by IIM
4. Decrease growth rate method
• In this method, the average decrease in the percentage
increase is worked out and is subtracted from the latest
percentage increase for successive period
• This method is applicable only in such cases, where the
rate of growth of population shown a down ward trend

Example 4: Solve example 1 by using DRM


5. Method used by Ethiopians statistic Authority.
Pn=Po*ekn
Where,
Pn = population at n decades or years
Po = initial population
n = decade or year
k = growth rate (%)
Example 5
According to CSA, the population of certain town is
15,640 in the year 1994. Determine the probable
population in the year 2010 for k = 3%.
6. Simple Graphical method
• In this method the population of last few years is correctly
plotted to a suitable scale on the graph with respect to
years
• Then, the curve is smoothly extended to forecast the
future population
Example 6:
The population in the past decays is given as follows

Year 1930 1940 1950 1960


Population 9000 13000 17000 23000

Forecast the probable population number in the year


1970, 1980 and 1990 by using simple graphical
method?
7. Logistic curve method
• When the population of a town is with plotted with
respect to time, the curve so obtained under normal
condition shall be S shaped called logistic curve
Then,
Example 7
The population of a city in three consecutive years i.e.
1991, 2001 and 2011 is 80,000; 250,000 and 480,000,
respectively. Determine
(a) The saturation population,
(b) The equation of logistic curve,
(c) The expected population in 2021
Exercises
1. The Population data for a certain town is given below.

Find out the population in the year 1970 and 1980 by


i. Arithmetic Increase Method
ii. Geometric Increase Method,
iii. Incremental Increase Method
iv. Decrease rate of growth method
v. Simple graphical method
2. Following
is the population of a city as noted from the
census department:

Determine
a) The saturation population
b) The expected population in 1980 & the equation of
logistic curve
THANK YOU!!

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