Unit 9C

Exponential Modeling

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 1
Exponential Functions
An exponential function grows (or decays) by the same relative amount
per unit time. For any quantity Q growing exponentially with a fractional
growth rate r,

Q = Q0(1+r)t
where
Q = value of the exponentially growing quantity at time t
Q0 = initial value of the quantity (at t = 0)
r = fractional growth rate for the quantity
t = time
Negative values of r correspond to exponential decay.
Note that the units of time used for t and r must be the same.
While an exponential growing quantity has a constant relative growth
rate, its absolute growth rate increases.
Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 2
Example
The 2010 census found a U.S. population of about
309 million, with an estimated growth rate of 0.9%
per year. Write an equation for the U.S. population
that assumes exponential growth at this rate. Use
the equation to predict the U.S. population in 2100.
Solution
The Quantity Q is the U.S population. Initial value is the 2010
population, Q0 = 309 million. Growth rate is P% = 0.9% per
year
Fractional growth rate is r = P/100 = 0.009 per year
Q = Q0 × (1 + r)t = 309 million × (1 + 0.009)t
= 309 million × (1.009)t
Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 3
Example (cont)
Note that, because the units of r are per year, t must
be measured in years. The year 2100 is t = 90 years
after 2010.
Our exponential function therefore predicts a 2100
population of
Q = 309 million × (1.009)90 ≈ 692 million

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 4
Graphing Exponential Functions
To graph an exponential function, use points corresponding to
several doubling times (or half-lives, in the case of decay).
Start at the point (0,Q0), the initial value at t = 0.

For an exponentially growing quantity, the value of Q is 2Q0

(double the initial value) after one doubling time (Tdouble), 4Q0
after two doubling times (2Tdouble), 8Q0 after three doubling
times (3Tdouble), and so on.

For an exponentially decaying quantity, the value of Q falls to

Q0/2 (half the initial value) after one half-life (Thalf), Q0/4 after
two half-lives (2Thalf), Q0/8 after three half-lives (3Thalf), and so
on.
Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 5
Exponential Growth

To graph exponential growth,

first plot the points (0,Q0),
(Tdouble,2Q0), (2Tdouble,4Q0),
(3Tdouble,8Q0), and so on. Then
fit a curve between these
points, as shown to
the right.

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 6
Exponential Decay

To graph exponential
decay, first plot the points
(0,Q0), (Thalf,Q0/2),
(2Thalf,Q0/4), (3Thalf,Q0/8),
and so on. Then fit a curve
between these points, as
shown to the right.

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 7
 Forms of the Exponential Function
If given the growth or decay rate r, use the form

If given the doubling time Tdouble, use the form

If given the half-life Thalf, use the form

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 8
 Example: China’s Coal Consumption
China’s rapid economic development has lead to an
exponentially growing demand for energy, and China generates
more than two-thirds of its energy by burning coal. During the
period 2000 to 2012, China’s coal consumption increased at an
average rate of 8% per year, and the 2012 consumption was
about 3.8 billion tons of coal.

a. Use these data to predict China’s coal consumption in 2020.

b. Make a graph projecting China’s coal consumption through
2050. Discuss the validity of the model.

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 9
 Example: China’s Coal Consumption
China’s rapid economic development has lead to an
exponentially growing demand for energy, and China
generates more than two-thirds of its energy by burning coal.
During the period 2000 to 2012, China’s coal consumption
increased at an average rate of 8% per year, and the 2012
consumption was about 3.8 billion tons of coal.

a. Use these data to predict China’s coal consumption in 2020.

If t = 0 represents 2012 Q0 = 3.8, r = 0.08, and t = 8 years.

Q = Q0(1+r)t = 3.8 (1 + 0.08)8 = 3.8  (1.08)8 ≈ 7.0
China’s predicted coal consumption is about 7 billion tons.

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 10
Example (cont)
b. Make a graph projecting China’s coal
consumption through 2050. Discuss the validity of
the model.
There are several ways to make the graph, but let’s
do it by finding the doubling time. Using the exact
doubling time formula (see box, p. 486), we find
log10 2 log10 2
T2   9.0
log10 (1  r ) log10 (1.08)

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 11
 Example (cont)

Given China’s serious problems with pollution from coal

burning and concerns about the impact of coal burning on
global warming, it seems unlikely that such an enormous
increase in coal consumption will really occur.
Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 12
Example
Consider an antibiotic that has a half-life in the
bloodstream of 12 hours. A 10-milligram injection of
the antibiotic is given at 1:00 p.m. How much
antibiotic remains in the blood at 9:00 p.m.? Draw a
graph that shows the amount of antibiotic remaining
as the drug is eliminated by the body.
Solution
Q0 = 10 milligrams is the initial dose; t = 0
Q is the amount of antibiotic in the blood t hours
t /12
later. Half-life is 12 hours. 1
Q 10  
 2
Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 13
Example (cont)
At 9:00 p.m., which is t = 8 hours after the injection,
the amount of antibiotic remaining is
8/12
1
Q 10  
 2
2/3
1
10  
 2
6.3 mg

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 14
Example (cont)
Eight hours after the injection, 6.3 milligrams of the
antibiotic remain in the bloodstream. Graphing this
exponential decay
function up to
t = 100 hours, we
see that the
amount of antibiotic
decreases steadily
toward zero.

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 15
Example
The famous Allende meteorite lit up the skies of Mexico
as it fell to Earth on February 8, 1969. Laboratory
studies have shown that potassium-40 decays into
argon-40 with a half-life of about 1.25 billion (1.25 ×
109) years and that all the argon-40 in the meteorite
must be a result of such decay. By comparing the
amounts of the two substances in the meteorite
samples, scientists determined that only 8.5% of the
potassium-40 originally present in the rock remains
today (the rest has decayed into argon-40). How old is
the rock that makes up the Allende meteorite?

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 16
Example (cont)
Our goal is to find t, which is the age of the rock. We
are given that the half-life of potassium-40 is
Thalf = 1.25 × 109 years and that 8.5% of the original
potassium-40 remains, which means Q/Q0 = 0.085.
t /Thalf
Q 1 log10 0.085
  t 1.25 10 yr 
9

Q0  2  log10 (1 / 2)
log10 1 / 2  log10 Q / Q0 
t /Thalf
t 4.45 109 yr
t
log10 (1 / 2) log10 Q / Q0  The Allende
Thalf log10 Q / Q0  meteorite is about
t Thalf 
log10 (1 / 2) 4.45 billion years old
Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 17
Changing Rates of Change
Linear functions have straight line graphs and constant rates
of change. Exponential functions have graphs that rise or fall
steeply and have variable rates of change.

Exponential growth functions have Exponential decay functions have

rates of change that increase. rates of change that decrease.

Copyright © 2015, 2011, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 9, Unit C, Slide 18