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Poisson-Hypergeometric Distributions

The document discusses Poisson and Hypergeometric distributions, outlining their properties, random variables, and examples of applications. Poisson distribution is used for counting the number of successes in a fixed interval, while Hypergeometric distribution is applied to sampling without replacement from a finite population. It includes formulas for calculating probabilities, means, and variances for both distributions.

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Jack Jan
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32 views

Poisson-Hypergeometric Distributions

The document discusses Poisson and Hypergeometric distributions, outlining their properties, random variables, and examples of applications. Poisson distribution is used for counting the number of successes in a fixed interval, while Hypergeometric distribution is applied to sampling without replacement from a finite population. It includes formulas for calculating probabilities, means, and variances for both distributions.

Uploaded by

Jack Jan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Poisson and Hyper-Geometric

Distributions
Discrete Probability
Poisson Distribution
Experiment-
Properties
A Poisson experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:
• The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or
failures.
• The average number of successes (μ) that occurs in a specified region is known.
• The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the
region.
• The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is virtually zero.
• Note that the specified region could take many forms. For instance, it could be a
length, an area, a volume, a period of time, etc.
Poisson Random
Variable
• A Poisson random variable is the number of successes that result from a
Poisson experiment. The probability distribution of a Poisson random
variable is called a Poisson distribution.

• Assumptions of the Poisson Distribution


(1)The probability is proportional to the length of the interval.
(2)The intervals are independent.
Poisson Random Variable-
Examples
Typical examples of random variables for which the Poisson probability
distribution provides a good model are:
1. The number of traffic accidents per month at a busy intersection
2. The number of noticeable surface defects (scratches, dents, etc.) found by
quality inspectors on a new automobile.
3. The number of parts per million (ppm) of some toxin found in the water or air
emissions from a manufacturing plant.
4. The number of diseased trees per acre of a certain woodland
5. The number of death claims received per day by an insurance company
6. The number of unscheduled admissions per day to a hospital.
Poisson
Distribution
Example#1 Poisson Probability
The average number of cars arriving at a petrol station is 2 per minute. What is the probability that any
Distribution
randomly selected four minute interval, 5 cars will arrive at the station.

Identification:
Event is arriving of car at a petrol station.
This event is random as well as independent
Average number of time occurrence of the event is known.

Data:
µ = 2 cars /minutes; this implies 8 cars/four minutes interval
P(x = 5) = ?
Calculation:
Example-2 Poisson
Distribution
Example#3 Poisson
Poisson Process” (rates) Distribution
Note that the Poisson parameter  can be given as the mean number of events that
occur in a defined time period OR, equivalently,  can be given as a rate, such as =2/month
(2 events per 1 month) that must be multiplied by t=time (called a “Poisson Process”) 
X ~ Poisson ()
E(X) = t k  t
( t ) e
P ( X k ) 
k!
Example:
If new cases of corona West Nile in New England are occurring at a rate of about 2 per
month, what’s the probability that exactly 4 cases will occur in the next 3 months? what’s the
probability that exactly 6 cases will occur in the next 3 months?

Solution: X ~ Poisson (=2/month)


Exactly 4 cases? ( 2 * 3) 4 e  ( 2*3) 6 4 e  ( 6 )
P(X 4 in 3 months)   13.4%
4! 4!

Exactly 6 cases?
( 2 * 3) 6 e  ( 2*3) 66 e  (6)
P(X 6 in 3 months)   16%
6! 6!
Example :
On an Interchange, the average number of accidents per weeks is 3.
Using POISSON Distribution, find the probability that on the coming
week the number of accidents will be;

(a) Less than 3.


(b) Exactly 4.
(c) At least 5.
Hypergeometric
Experiment
A hypergeometric experiment is a statistical experiment that has the
following properties:

• A sample of size n is randomly selected without replacement from a


population of N items.

• In the population, K items can be classified as successes, and N - K items


can be classified as failures.

• In the sample, k items can be classified as successes, and n - k items can be


classified as failures.
Characteristics of Hypergeometric
Distribution
• There are only 2 possible outcomes.
• The probability of a success is not the same on each trial.
• It results from a count of the number of successes in a fixed number of
trials.
• It has three parameters N, n and K.
Use the hypergeometric distribution to find the probability of a
specified number of successes or failures if:

• the sample is selected from a finite population without replacement

• the size of the sample n is greater than 5% of the size of the


population N (i.e. n/N  .05)
Discrete Probability
Distribution
Hyper-geometric Probability Distribution:
If a population of size N contains k items labeled “success” and N-k
items labeled “failure”, then the probability distribution of the hyper-
geometric random variable X, the number of success in a random
sample of size n, is

For x = 0,1,2,3,…..
Here X is the RV and N,n,k
are the parameters.
Hyper-geometric Probability
Distribution
Identification:
•There is a Population of size N
comprises of two segments. Size of first
segment is k and the other will be N-k.
•There is a process of random selection
of sample of size n from the population N.
•The sample may contain X number of
element from the first segment and n-x
element from the another segment.
Hyper-geometric Probability
Distribution
Formula for mean and variance specifically for hyper-geometric
probability distribution

Mean =

Variance =
Example#1 Hyper-geometric Probability
A committee of 4 persons is to be formed from among 3 women and 6 men. If
Distribution
selection of the committee members is random:

a. Construct the probability distribution table for the random variable X shows
“Number of women in the committee”.
b. What is the probability that the committee will have exactly 1 woman.
c. What is the probability that the committee will have two to three women.
d. What is the expected number of women in the committee.
e. Find the variance of X.
Example#1 Hyper-geometric Probability
Distribution
Example-2 Hypergeometric
Distribution
Example-3 Hypergeometric
Distribution
Play Time Toys, Inc., employs 50
people in the Assembly
Department. Forty of the
employees belong to a union
and ten do not. Five employees
are selected at random to form
a committee to meet with
management regarding shift
starting times. What is the
probability that four of the five
selected for the committee
belong to a union?
Example-4 Hypergeometric
Distribution
Suppose a professor randomly selects three new teaching assistants from a
total of 10 applicants—six male and four female students.
Let X be the number of females who are hired.

a. Find the mean and standard deviation of x .


b. Find the probability that no females are hired.
Solution:
a. Since x is a hypergeometric random variable with N = 10, n = 3, and r = 4, the
mean and variance are
Thank you

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