Random Variable:

A variable whose value is determined by the outcomes of a random experiment is called a

random variable
Random Variable is denoted by capital letters such as X, Y, Z ………….Values of the random
variable represented by small letters such as x, y, z………

For examples :
1. If X denotes the number of heads in the random experiment of
tossing 1 coin, then random variable X takes the values as

Outcomes T H
R V (X) 0 1
2. If X denotes the number of heads in the random experiment of tossing 2 coins together,
then random variable X takes the values as
Outcomes TT TH HT HH
R V (X) 0 1 1 2

3. If X denotes the number of heads in the random experiment of tossing 3 coins together,
then random variable X takes the values as

Outcomes TTT TTH THT HTT THH HTH HHT HHH

R V (X) 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3

Note: A random variable may be either Discrete or Continuous

Discrete Random Variable :
A random variable that assumes only finite or countable values is called a discrete random
variable . Such as the number of heads obtained in tossing a coin
Probability distribution function of a discrete random variable:
Let X be a discrete random variable assuming values x1,x2,x3…….. along with corresponding
probabilities P1,P2,P3,….. respectively such that
i. P 0 for all of = 1, 2, 3,……….,N (note that: = )
ii. = P1+P2+P3+……………+ = 1
Then , the function P(X=x)= P is called the probability mass function of the random variable X
and the set of all possible ordered pairs (xi,Pi) is called the probability distribution of a discrete
random variable X
The probability distribution tells us how a total probability of 1 is distributed among the
different values of a random variable
A Particular Example :
Random Experiment : Tossing a coin thrice or 3 coins are tossed
Outcomes TTT TTH THT HTT THH HTH HHT HHH
RV (X) : No of Heads 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3

Total outcomes = = 8
The probability distribution can be constructed by listing the outcomes (no. of heads) and assigning the
probability of each outcomes such as
No. of heads (X= ) 0 1 2 3
f 1 3 3 1
P(0) = P(1) = P(2) = P(3) =
P(X=) = P() =

N = = 1+3+3+1 = 8

∴ )= Total prob.= P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = = 1

Note: Relative frequency = , replaced by their corresponding prob (P).
Continuous Random Variable:
A random variable that can take any values between certain ranges (interval) is called a
continuous random variable . For example : height , weight of a person , price of a house etc.
The probability distribution P(X) for continuous Random variable (X) is called probability
density function (pdf) and is given by the integral
f(X) =
Theoretical Probability Distribution:
Probability distribution is the relationship between the possible values of a random variable
and the corresponding probability where as Theoretical Probability distribution is the
Mathematical Model in which the probability distribution of values of the variable according
to some definite probability law
Types of Theoretical Probability Distributions
i. Discrete Theoretical Probability Distributions
a. Binomial distribution
b. Poisson distribution
ii. Continuous Theoretical Probability Distributions
a. Normal distribution
b. Student’s t- distribution
c. Chi square distribution
d. F-distribution
1. Binomial Probability Distribution:
In any experiment when there are only two outcomes i.e, dual outcomes with fixed probability
p and q throughout the whole process, its theoretical distribution is called Binomial probability
distribution.
Several situations where the activity ( experiment) results in dual outcomes such as
Assumptions of Binomial Distribution: ( not reqd )

i. The process is performed under the same conditions for a fixed and finite number of trails
‘n’.
ii. There are only two mutually exclusive outcomes for each trail of an experiment i.e dual
outcomes
iii. The outcome of any trail is independent of the outcome of any other trail.
iv. The probability of success ‘p’ remains constant from trail to trail . Similarly, the probability
of failure ‘q’ i. e (1- p) remains constant over all observations.
v. When n < 30 and p0.05
 Definition:
A random variable X is said to have Binomial Distribution if its probability mass function is
given by
P(X = r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,n
Where ,
P(X = r) = probability of getting exactly ‘r’ success
n = Number of trails or experiments
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure such that q = 1- p
r = Number of success
The binomial distribution written as X has two parameters n and p with
Mean ()= np
Variance() =npq where Mean > Variance and Standard deviation ( )=
Properties of Binomial Distribution: not reqd
Let XB(n,p) then
1. The binomial distribution has two parameters n and p with Mean ()= np and Variance()
=npq where Mean > Variance and Standard deviation ( )=
2. The binomial distribution is
i. Symmetrical if p = q = 0.5
ii. Positive skewed if p< 0.5 i.e p < q
iii. Negative skewed if p>0.5i.e p>q
3. If np is a whole number then the distribution is unimodal and mean = mode = np

Note : The random variable X takes only integral values so Binomial Distribution is a discrete
probability distribution
Examples:
1. A coin is tossed 3 times (or 3 coins are tossed simultaneously). What is the probability of
getting
i. 1 head
ii. Exactly 3 heads
iii. 2heads and 1 tail
iv. At least one head
v. At most 1 head
Solution: Let p denotes the probability of getting head then p = q = and n=3 . If random
variable X denotes the number of Heads then by the Binomial probability distribution the
probability of r heads is given by
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,n
 i. 1 head: P(X=1) = …………………=0.375
ii. Exactly 3 heads: P(X=3) = ……………………= 0.125
iii.2 heads and 1 tail: P(X=2) = ………………= 0.375
iv. At least of 1 head:
P(X = P(1) +P(2) +P(3)= ………………………..=0.875
v. At most 1 head ( not more than 1 head):
P(X) = P(0) + P(1) = …………………………..=0.5
Note:
Sample space and Probability distribution of the random experiment:
Outcomes TTT TTH THT HTT THH HTH HHT HHH
RV (X) 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
P(X)

Note: P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3) = + + + = 1
 illustration:

i. 1 head: m = 3 , P(1 head) = = = 0.375

ii. Exactly 3 heads: m = 1, P(3 heads) = = = 0.125
iii. 2 heads and 1 tail : m = 3 , P(2 heads and 1 tail) = = = 0.375
iv. At least of 1 head : i.e, X
=7, P(at least one head) =0.875
v. At most 1 head ( not more than 1 head):i.e, X
m= 4, P(at most 1 head) = = =0.5
Examples
#2. A coin is tossed 4 times . If X is the number of heads observed, find the probability
distribution of X
Sol: When a coin is tossed , i.e, for each trail, sample space : S = {H,T}
P(getting head): p = and P(getting tail): q=1 -
Let X is the random variable denoting the number of heads . In 4 trials
RV( X ) : 0 , 1 , 2, 3 , 4 i.e , n = 4
Now , the probability of getting r heads in n trails of a coin is
P(X = r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,4
=
=
 Now,
P(X=0) = P(0)= =
P(X=1) = P(1)= =
P(X=2) = P(2)= =
P(X=3) = P(3)= =
P(X=4) = P(4)= =
Required probability distribution is

X P(0)+P(1)+P(2)
Note: 0 1
+P(3) 2= + + 3+ + = 14(total probability)
P(X)
# 3. A unbiased die is thrown 3 times .If getting 2 or 5 is considered a success, find the
probability of at least 2 successes
Sol: let p be the probability of success of getting 2 or 5
p (getting 2 or 5)= + = =
q = 1 - = , n=3
Let r be the number of successes in the experiment, then the probability of getting r successes

in n trails is given by

∴ P(at least 2 successes) =P(X≥2)

P(X=r) = , r =0,1,2,3,

=P(X =2 or 3)
=P(X=2)+P(X=3)
= +
=
# 4.
If on an average 8 ships out of 10 arrive safely at a airport, find the mean and standard
deviation of the number of ships arriving safely out of a total of 1600 ships.
Sol: let the event of a ship arriving safely at a port be the success of the experiment, then

Mean := np= 1600×0.8 = 1280

p = = 0.8, and q = 0.2 , n = 1600

Standard deviation:σ== ………..= 16

# 5.Brief
Comment on the following: for a binomial distribution, mean= 7 and variance=11
Sol: Given : = 7, =11
We have, again,
= np =11 or 7q=11
i.e np=7 or npq=11 or q = >1 , not possible , wrong information
#6. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 3 and 2 respectively. Find the
probability that the variate takes values
i. Less than or equal to 2 ii. greater than or equal to 7
Sol: Given : = 3 and = 2,

= 3 → np= 3…………..i
let n and p be the parameter of the binomial distribution

= 2→npq= 2…………..ii
We have,

∴q = and p = 1 – q = 1- = , n= 3×3=9
Let r be the number of successes in the experiment, then the probability of getting r
successes in n trails is given by
P(X=r) = , r =0,1,2,3,…….9
i. P(Less than or equal to 2 )=P(X≤2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)
= 0.3864
ii. P(greater than or equal to 7)=P(X≥7)=P(X=7)+P(X=8)+P(X=9)
= 0.0083
# 7. Out of 1000 families with 4 children each , what percentage would be expected to have
i. 2 boys and 2 girls ii. 1 boy and 3 girls iii. at least 1 boy iv . no girl v. at most 2 girls
Assume equal probabilities for boys and girls
Sol : let p and q be the probabilities of getting boy and girl respectively. Then , p = q = and
n=4
The probability of getting r boys out of n children is given by

∴P(X=r) = = =
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,4

∴ Expected percentage=0.3750×100= 37.5%

i. P(2 boys and 2 girls ): P(X=2)==……………..=0.3750

ii. P(1 boy and 3 girls): P(X=1)=……………= 0.25 = 25%

iii. P(at least 1 boy)= P(X≥1))=1- P(no boys)= 1- P(X=0)
=1 - = 93.75%
iv. P(no girl) = P(all boys)=P(X=4)= = ……………6.25%
v. P(at most 2 girls)=P(at least 2 boys) G : 0 1 2 then
=P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4) B : 4 3 2
=……………. i.e, at least 2 boys
= 68.75%
Note: Given N= 1000

i. 2 boys and 2 girls :1000×0.3750= 375

To find number of families expect to have

ii. 1 boy and 3 girls : 1000×0.25= 250

iii. at least 1 boy : ………….
iv . no girl :………………….
v. at most 2 girls:……………………
# 8. A student is given a true false examination with 8 questions. If he gets 6 or more correct
answers, he passes the examinations. Given that he guesses the answer to each question.
Compute the probability that he passes the examination.
Sol:

∴ p = q = and n = 8
let p be the probability of success i.e of answering a question correctly

Let r denote the number of successes in attempting the questions

The probability of getting r successes is given by

∴ P(X=r) = = =
P(X=r) = , r =0,1,2,…………, 6,7,8

P(X≥6)=P(X=6)+P(X=7)+P(X=8) where r = 6 , 7 , 8
Probability of passing in the examination :

=0.14453125
Ex:6.A.( Numerical) Fitting Binomial distribution:
#16. Given :Distribution of defectives of 128 samples
No. of defectives R(X) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Tota
l
Number of samples 7 6 19 35 30 23 7 1 128

n = 7 & N=128
p = 0.5 = q
Let X be the R.V representing the number of defectives , then

f(r) = N × , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
expected frequencies of getting r defective monitors s given by

= 128× , r = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7
= ……………………………………………
=
 Computation of expected frequencies ( fitted binomial distribution)
X=r f f(r) = N × =
0 7 f(0) ==…………………..=1
1 6
2 19
3 35
4 30
5 23
6 7
7 1

also,
Mean= = np=………….=?
Variance = = npq =…………….=?
#18.(Numerical) Fitting Binomial distribution:
Given : Distribution of RV and experimental frequencies
(observed frequencies):
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
f 13 19 35 30 15 8

∴ = ……………………= 2.325
Here, n =5& N ==120

∴ p = 0.465
or, np = 2.325

& q = 0.535
Expected frequencies of getting r successes is given by
f(r) = N × , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
Computation of expected frequencies ( fitted binomial distribution)
……………………………………………………
Ex: 6 A. page: 286 Brief:

∴ q = 1-0.4= 0.6
# 3.Given : n=10, p= 0.4 , Mean: =? , Variance : = ?

we have ,
= np =10×0.4 =4
= npq = ……………..=2.4
# 4. Given: n=5 , p = 0.5 , P(X=2)=?
q= 1-p=
If X is the random variable following Binomial distribution then
probability of r success
is
P(X=r) = ,
∴ P(X =2)= ?
r = 0,1,2,3,4,….., n

=
=………………..
= 0.3125
5. Given : = , p =? ,q=?
Sol: we have,
=
=
q= ? , p =?

6. Given : = 7 and =11

i.e, np= 7 and
npq=11

∴ q = 11/7 > 1 i.e wrong statement since neither p or q greater than 1.

Or , 7q=11
Numerical :

∴ q = 1-0.4 = 0.6
# 1. Given : n= 10, p= 0.4

Let X be a random variable following binomial distribution, then prob of

getting r success is given by
P(X=r)= , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
a. P(r=3)= =
b. P(r >8) = P(r =9)+P(r=10) = +=

#2. Given : n= 8, p= 0.3

c. P(r≤3)=?

∴ q = 1-0.3 = 0.7
Let X be a random variable following binomial distribution, then prob of
getting r success is given by
P(X=r)= , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
P(r≥3)= ?
At first , P(r <3)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)=+=
Now,
P(r≥3)=1-P(r <3)= 1-0.5518= 0.4482

# 3. Given : = np = 0.4, σ = 0.6, P(r≥1)= P(at least one)= ?

here,
σ = 0.6
= 0.36
npq= 0.36
0.4q= 0.36

Let X be a random variable following binomial distribution, then prob of

q= 0.9, p=? ,n= 4

getting r success is given by

P(X=r)= , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
 P(r = 0) = = 0.6561
For r = 0 i.e Prob. of no success

∴ P(r≥1)= P(at least one)

= 1-P(r=0) =………………
= 0.3439
# 4. Given: np= 6 and npq=2
………………..

The prob. of getting r success is given by

p = , q= , n= 9

P(X=r)= , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
∴ P(5≤X≤7)= P(X=5)+P(X=6)+P(X=7)=…………….
= 0.7122
The prob. of getting r success is given by
# 9. Given: n = 9 , p = , q =

P(X=r)= , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
a. P(No head)= P(X=0)=…………….
b. P(exactly 4 heads)=P(X=4)=………….
c. P(at least 5 heads)=P(X≥5)=P(X=5)+P(X=6)+P(X=7)+P(X=8)+P(X=9)
=………………
d. P(at most 3 heads)=P(X≤3)=………………
# 12. For 1st case: Having 2 weeks of vacation time
Given: p = 0.45, q =1- 0.45= 0.55

The prob. of getting r success is given by

n=12 and r =8 workers

P(X=r)= , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
a. P(X=8)== …………….
2nd case: Having 3 or more weeks of vacation time
Given: p = 0.20, q =1- 0.20= 0.80

P(at most 2)=P(X≤2)= P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+ ………….

n=12 and r =at most 2 of the workers

3rd case: Having 1 week of vacation time

Given: p = 0.10, q =1- 0.10= 0.90

P(at least 3)=P(X≥3)= ?

n=12 and r =at least 3 of the workers

at first, P(not having 1 week of vacation time)= P(X<3)=………=0.88913

3rd case: Having 1 week of vacation time
Given: p = 0.10, q =1- 0.10= 0.90

P(at least 3)=P(X≥3)= ?

n=12 and r =at least 3 of the workers

At first,
P(not having 1 week of vacation time)= P(X<3)=………
=0.88913
∴ P( having 1 week of vacation time)=P(X≥3)
=1- P(X<3)
= ………………….
=0.1109
# 15. Given:
n=4, p=92%= 0.92, q= 1-0.92= 0.08
Since for an aircraft in flight to land safely, at least 2 engines would be on
working condition .
r = at least 2 engines must be in working condition
P(X ≥ 2)= P(r≥2)=?
At first,
P(X<2)=……………..?
∴P(X≥2)= 1-P(X<2)=…………………….
Fitting a Binomial Distribution:
The process of finding the expected or theoretical frequencies for a binomial distribution is
called fitting of binomial distribution
Suppose a random experiment consists of ‘n’ trials satisfying the conditions of binomial
distribution is repeated N times then the expected frequency of getting exactly ‘r’ success is
given by

f(r)= NP(X=r) = N , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n

Note:
Experimental frequency, also called observed frequency (f), is the number of times a specific
event or outcome actually occurs in an experiment or real-life.
Expected frequency , f(r) is the number of times a specific event or outcome is expected to
occur based on logical probability.
Ex:6.A.( Numerical) Fitting a Binomial distribution:
#16. Given : Distribution of defectives of 128 samples
No. of defectives R(X) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Tota
l
Number of samples 7 6 19 35 30 23 7 1 128

n = 7 & N=128
p = 0.5 = q
Let X be the R.V representing the number of defectives , then expected frequencies of
getting r defective monitors s given by

f(r) = N × , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n

= 128× , r = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7
 f(r) = 128 ×
Computation of expected frequencies ( fitted binomial distribution)
X=r f
(Observed frequency) (Expected frequency)
0 7 f(0) =…………………..=?
1 6 .
2 19 .
3 35 .
4 30 .
5 23
6 7
7 1
N= 128

also,
Mean= = np=………….=?
Variance = = npq =…………….=?
#17. Given :Distribution of successes(even number) in throwing 5 dice 1000 times
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
f 38 144 342 287 164 25 1000

Total number of observations : N=1000

Number of trails : n = 5
p =P(getting a even number) = = =0.5 ,
q = 1-p=…………=0.5
Let X be the R.V representing the number of success (even number) , then expected

f(r) = N × , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
frequencies of getting r successes is given by

=1000 × ,r = 0,1,2,3,4,5.
Computation of expected frequencies ( fitted binomial distribution)
………………
#18.
Given : Distribution of RV and experimental frequencies (observed frequencies):
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
f 13 19 35 30 15 8

∴ = ……………………= 2.325
Here, n =5 & N ==120

∴ p = 0.465
or, np = 2.325

& q = 0.535
Expected frequencies of getting r successes is given by
f(r) = N × , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,n
= 120× , r= 0,1,2,3,4,5.
Computation of expected frequencies ( fitted binomial distribution)
……………………………………………………

END
2. Poisson Probability Distribution: not reqd
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution and use to find the probability of
occurrence of rare and causal ( independent events) such as number of accidents on a busy
road, number of customers arrives at a store, number of defective safety pins in a pocket of
100 pins etc. (occur randomly in nature)
In finding probabilities by poisson distribution, we require only the measure of average chance
of occurrence based on past experience or a small sample drawn for the purpose.

The Poisson distribution is a limiting case of the binomial distribution under the following
conditions.
i. The number of trails ‘n’ is indefinitely large i.e n
ii. The probability of success ‘p’ for each trail is indefinitely small, i.e p0 (less than 0.05 and
n30)
iii. np = is finite and p =
Properties of Poisson Distribution:
If X follows Poisson distribution with parameter then it is written as X . The random
variable X takes only integral values so Poisson Distribution is a discrete probability
distribution
1. The Poisson distribution has one parameters
Mean ()= . Variance() = where Mean = Variance and Standard deviation ( )=
2. The Poisson distribution is always positively skewed and tends to become symmetric for
high value of
3. Like Binomial distribution , poisson distribution could be also unimodal or bimodal
depending upon the value of
4. The probability of success is very small and the probability of failure is large almost equal to
1 and n sufficiently large
5. If is known , all the probabilities of the poisson distribution can be obtained
Examples:
# 1.Suppose that a manufactured product has 2 defects per unit of the product inspected.
Using poisson distribution, calculate the probabilities of finding a product i. without any
defect
ii. 3 defects iii. 4 defects .Given := 0.135
Sol. Given , = mean no. of defects in a unit=2
Let r denote the number of defects per unit . The probability of getting r defects is given by
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,
i. without any defect :
Prob of getting no defect in a unit : P(X=0) = = 0.135
ii. 3 defects:
Prob of getting 3 defects in a unit : P(X=3) = = 0.18
iii. 4 defects:
Prob of getting 4 defects in a unit : P(X=4) = = 0.09
# 2 .A telephone exchange receives on an average 4 calls per min. Find the probability on the
basis of poisson distribution of
i. no call at all ii. 2 or less calls per min iii. Up to 4 calls per min
iv. More than 4 calls per min v. at least one call
vi. Exactly 4 calls per two min
Sol. Given, = average successes calls per min =4
Let r denote the number of calls per minute. The probability of
getting r successes calls per min is given by
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,
ii. No call at all i.e r = 0

ii. 2 or less calls per min i.e r ≤ 2

P(X=0) = …………0.0183

P(X≤2)= P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)=…….0.2379
iii. Up to 4 calls per min i.e r ≤ 4

iv. More than 4 calls per min i.e r > 4

=0.6284

v. At least one call i.e r ≥ 1

= 1-0.6284= 0.3716

=1- P(X=0)= 0.9817

vi. Exactly 4 calls per two min
Here , = average no of calls per 2 min = 4×2 = 8 calls (since
exchange receives on an average 4 calls per min)
The probability of getting exactly 4 calls in two minutes is given by
P(X=4)= =……………………………= 0.0572
# 3.
10% of the tools produced in a certain factory turn out to be defective . Find the probability
that in a sample of 10 tools chosen at random i. exactly two defective ii. more than two will
be defective by using Poisson approximation to binomial distribution.
Sol: Let p denote the probability of getting a defective tool (success). Then ,

= mean no. of successes in the experiment = np = 10×0.1 =1

p = 10% = 0.1 and n=10

Let r denote the number of successes i.e the number of defective tools in
the sample. Then , the probability of getting r successes is given by

∴ P(X=r)= = where, r= 0,1,2,3,……….10

P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,
i. Exactly 2 defectives:
P(X=2)= …………………………
= 0.18394

P(X > 2)= 1- P(X≤2)

ii. More than two will be defective :

= 1-{P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)}
=……….
= 0.0803
# 4.
Suppose a book of 500 pages contains 25 pages with misprints . If these pages are randomly
distributed throughout the book , what is the probability that 10 pages, selected at random
will be free from pages with misprint?
Sol: let r denote the no. of pages with misprints in the sample of 10 pages

∴ = average no of pages with misprints in a sample of 10 pages

Here, n = 10 , p = Prob of misprint =

= np = 10× = 0.5
The probability of r pages with misprints is given by

∴P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,10.
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

∴P(sample free from pages with misprints): P(X=0)= ………….= 0.6065.

# 5.
A manufacturer, who produces medicine bottles, finds that 0.1% of the bottles are defective.
The bottles are packed in the boxes containing 500 bottles. A drug manufacturer buys 100
boxes from the producer of bottles. Using Poisson distribution, find how many boxes will
contain i. no defective ii. one defective iii. At least two defectives
Sol: Given with usual notations:

= average no. of defectives bottles per box= np= 500×0.001= 0.5

n = 500, p = 0.1% = 0.001 , N=100

let r denote the no. of defective bottles per box. Then the probability of getting r defective
bottles is given by

∴ P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,500.
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,
i. No defective:
The expected no. of boxes containing no defective :

= 100× = =60.65 ≈ 61
f(0)= N×P(X=0)

ii. One defective

The expected no. of boxes containing one defective :

= 100× = 30.32≈ 30
f(1)= N×P(X=1)

iii. At least two defectives

The expected no. of boxes containing at least 2 defectives:

=N×{1-P(X≤1)}
f(at least 2 defectives)= N×P(X≥2)

= N×{1-P(X=0)-P(X=1)}
= ……………….
= 9.025≈9
2. Poisson Probability Distribution:
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution and use to find the probability of
occurrence of rare and causal ( independent) events.
Definition: A random variable X is said to have Poisson Distribution if its probability mass
function is given by
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,
Where ,
P(X=r) = probability of getting exactly ‘r’ success
= Mean no. of success (called parameter of poisson distribution)
r = Number of success
e = 2.71828…………. Base of natural logarithm
Note: The Poisson distribution has one parameters
Mean ()= .
Variance() = where Mean = Variance and Standard deviation ( )=
Some of the cases where Poisson Distribution can be used
Since Poisson distribution is appropriate for rare events which has very small probability of
occurrence i.e p < 0.05 and n tends to be large.
1. Number of twin birth in hospital
2. Number of suicides reported in a city
3. Number of printing mistake per page in a book
4. Number of wrong telephone calls per min in a switch board
5. Number of accidents in a busy road
6. Number of death from cancer, heart attack snake bites etc
7. Number of defective articles from a reputed company
8. Number of blind baby in a hospital
9. Number of house getting fire per week in a village
10. Number of customer per min in a grocery shop
#5.Given: Mean : λ =4
Ex:6.B.Brief page 296

Variance: λ=4
#6. Given : Mean : λ =1.5
P(X=4)=?
Let X be the R.V following poisson distribution then probability of getting
r successes is
given by P(X=r) = ,
∴ P(X=4) = = ……………….
r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

#7. Given : P(X=2)= P(X=3), Mean=? , Sd=?

Here,

or, =
P(X=2)= P(X=3)

λ =3 i.e mean=3 & Sd= = ……..=1.732.

#1. Given : Average number of car accident/day: λ= 3
Ex:6.B.Numerical

Let X be the R.V of poisson distribution representing car accidents/day

then the
probability of r accidents/day is given by
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

a. No car accidents
P(X=0)= = ………………………..
b. Exactly 5 accidents

c. At least 2 accidents
P(X=5)= = ………………………..

P(X≥2)= 1- P(X<2)= 1-[P(X=0)+P(X=1)]=………………

#2. Given : Average call /min : λ= 4
Ex:6.B.Numerical

Let X be the R.V of poisson distribution representing calls/min then the

probability of
r calls/min is given by
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

P(X≤2) = P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)=………………
a. 2 or less call per min

P(X≤4)= P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4) =………………

b. Up to 4 calls per min

c. More than 4 calls per min

P(X>4)= 1- P(X≤4) =………………

# 4. & # 5. Do your self

Ex:6.B.Numerical
#6. Given : on an average 4% of his product is defective

= np= 200×0.04 = 8
i.e p= 4%=0.04 and n= 200

Let X be the R.V representing defectives calculators then probability of

getting r defectives is given by

For not more than 3 defectives:

P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

P(X≤3)= P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)
#8. Given : 2 of 500 items are defectives
i.e, prob. of defective : p = = 0.004 and n=100
∴ = np = 100×0.004 = 0.4 (ave. no of defectives per 100 box)
Let X be the R.V representing defectives calculators then probability of
getting r defectives is given by

i. For no defectives:
P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

P(X=0)= ?
ii. P(x<3)=?
iii. If items are packed in a boxes of 500
= np= 500×0.004 = 2 (ave. no of defectives per 500 box)

P(X=3)=?
#9. Given : Average arrival rate is 4 passengers per min
i.e, = 4
Let X be the R.V representing arrival passenger then probability of getting
r arrival passengers is given by

i. For more than 3 :

P(X=r) = , r = 0,1,2,3,……….,

P(X>3)=1 - P(X≤3) = ?
ii. For exactly 1 passenger will arrive in 2 mins
= 4×2 = 8 ( since every 1 min 4 passengers arrive)
P(X=1)=?
 Fitting a Poisson Distribution:
The process of finding the expected or theoretical frequencies for a Poisson distribution is
called fitting of Poisson distribution
If N is the total observed frequency, then the expected or theoretical frequencies of Poisson
distribution are given by
f(r)= NP(X=r) = N , r = 0,1,2,3,4,…………,
Note : when is not known then compute mean of the distribution.
The expected frequencies for different values of r = 0,1,2,3,…….. can be calculated as

f f(r) = NP(X=r) = N
r
(Observed frequency) (Expected frequency)
.
0 f(0)= NP(0)
.
1 . f(1)= NP(1)
.
2 f(2)= NP(2)
. .
. .
#10.Find the expected frequencies i.e Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data
Mistake per 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total
page
No of pages 140 160 70 25 3 2 400

Solution:
Let X denote the mistake per page. To fit the poisson distribution, first of all the average
number of mistake per page ) is calculated as

Mistake per page(X) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total

Frequency (f) 140 160 70 25 3 2 N=400
fX 0 160 140 75 12 10 ?

= = =…………= 0.9925
The expected frequency of getting ‘r’mistakes/page is
Mistake per page Observed Expected frequency:

f(0) = 400× = 148.24≈ 148

X=r Frequency(f) f(r) = NP(X=r) = N
0 140
1 160 f(1) =
2 70
3 25
4 3
5 2

Total:N=400
Hence ,
Fitted Poisson Distribution:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5
f(r) 148 147 73 24 6 1

#11 &#12…………….Do in similar way

3. Normal Distribution:
The Normal distribution is the distribution of continuous random variable and the graph of
the distribution has a single peaked bell-shaped curve .The mean lies at the center of the
distribution and the curve is symmetrical around a vertical line which is erected at the mean .
The two tails indefinitely never touching the horizontal line. The mean , median and mode of
the distribution have same value.

Symmetrical about mean Tails extend indefinitely

Total area 100%

50% 50%

Mean)
Median( Md)
Mode( Mo)
Definition:
A continuous random variable X is said to have normal distribution if its probability density
function is given by
P(X) = , <X<
The mean and the variance of the distribution are the parameters and denoted by
XN ( , )
Note:
1. The total area under the Normal curve is 1 ( i.e 50% + 50%= 100%)
2. The curve is bell shaped and symmetrical about the mean X =
3.The probability that a normally distributed random variable X with mean and variance
lies between two specified values a and b and is given by

( Note: some authors also use P(a ≤ X ≤ b ) for area under curve which makes no
P(a < X < b ) = Area under the curve P(X) between X= a and X=b

difference )
Computation of areas(probabilities) under normal probability curve:
1. First convert the normal variate X into standard normal variate Z by using the relation
Z=
2. The computed value Z is also known as the Z score or standardized normal deviation.
3. Actually, The value of Z follows a normal probability distribution with a mean of 0 and
standard deviation of 1. This probability distribution is known as the standard normal
probability distribution.
4. This allows us to use only one table of areas for all types of normal distribution. The
probability density function of standard normal variate Z is
P(Z) = , < X < and symbolically ZN(0,1)
Percentage Distribution of Area under the Normal Curve

68.28%

95.44 %
99.73 %
𝜇− 3𝜎𝜇− 2𝜎𝜇− 𝜎 𝑋=𝜇 𝜇+𝜎𝜇+2 𝜎𝜇+3 𝜎 X
Z= -3 Z= -2 Z= -1 Z= 0 Z=1 Z=2 Z=3 SNV
Ex: 1. To find area when Z is given
1. Given a standard normal variate Z , determine the following probabilities:

i. P(Z < 1.96) . 96)

< 1
sol: P(Z<1.96)= P(-<Z<0)+P(0<Z<1.96) P(
Z

= 0.5+ 0.4750
= 0.975 -α +α
Z=0 Z =1.96

ii. P(Z > 1.64)

sol: P(Z>1.64)= P(0 <Z<)-P(0<Z<1.64)
= 0.5- 0.4495 P(
Z >1
= 0.0505 .6 4
)

Z=0 Z =1.64
iii. P(0 < Z < 2.34) 4 )
< 2. 3
sol: P( 0 < Z < 2.34)= 0.4904 0 < Z
P(

iv. P(Z< -1.64)

Z=0 Z =2.34
sol: P(Z<-1.64) = P(- < Z < 0)- P(-1.64<Z< 0)
= P(- < Z < 0) -P(0<Z< 1.64) (by symmetry)
= 0.5- 0.4495 . 64)
> 1
= 0.0505 P(
Z

v. P(Z > -0.34) Z = -1.64 Z=0

sol: P(Z > -0.34)= P(-0.34 < Z< 0) + P( 0< Z < )
= P(0 < Z < 0.34) + P(0<Z< ) P(
Z >-
= 0.1331+0.5 (by symmetry)
0.3
4)
= 0.6331
Z = -0.34 Z=0
vi. P(-1.25< Z < 0) 1 .2 5
< Z<
sol: P( -1.25< Z < 0)= P(0<Z<1.25) (by symmetry) P(
0
= 0.3944
vii. P(-1.64<Z<1.64) Z = - 1.25 Z=0
sol: P(-1.64<Z< 1.64) = P(- < Z < 0)+ P(0<Z< 1.64)
= P(0< Z < 1.64) +P(0<Z< 1.64) (by symmetry)
= 2(0<Z<1.64)
1 .64
=2 0.4495 < Z<
1 . 64
=0.899 -
P(
viii. P(0.17<Z< 1.64) Z = -1.64 Z=0 Z = 1.64
sol: P(0.17<Z<1.64)= P(0 < Z< 1.64) - P( 0< Z < 0.17)
P(
= 0.4495 - 0.0675 0 .17
<Z
= 0.382 <1
.64

Z = 0 Z = 0.17 Z = 1.64
ix. The probability of Z when Z is less than -0.84 or greater than 2.08
i.e P(Z < -0.84)+ P(Z > 2.08) = ?

Sol: P(Z<-0.84)+ P(Z>2.08)

= [P(-<Z<0)-P(-0.84<Z<0)] +[ P(0<Z<)-P(0<Z<2.08)]
= [P(-<Z<0)-P(0<Z<0.84)] +[ P(0<Z<)-P(0<Z<2.08)] ( by symmetry)
= [0.5-0.2995] +[0.5-0.4812]
= 0.2193

P(
Z>
. 84) 2 .0
-0 8)
Z <
P(

Z = -0.84 Z=0 Z = 2.08

 2. To find Z when area under normal curve is given
Case i.
# 1. What is the value of Z if only 31.87% of all possible Z values are smaller?
Sol:
Let the value of Z be – such that only 31.87% of all values of Z are smaller than – ,
i.e , P(
(

The value of probability closer to 0.1813 in Z – table is 0.1808 at Z = 0.47 i.e = 0.47
Hence, the required value of Z is – 0.47
1 87
0 .3
- )=
Z <
P(

Z=- Z=0
Case ii.
# 2. What is the value of Z if only 5% of all possible Z values are greater?
Sol: Let the value of Z be such that 5 % of all values of Z are greater than , i.e
P(
(

The value of probability closer to 0.4500 in Z – table is 0.4495 whose corresponding value of
Z =1.6+0.04=1.64
But there is another closest area is 0.4505 whose corresponding Z= 1.6+0.05=1.65
(Note : i.e equal difference 0.0005 )

P(
Hence, the required value of Z is taken by average

Z
<
-)
of these two values of Z

=0
.3
18
i.e =1.645

7
Z=0 Z=
Ex : i. When score X is given
1. Given a Normal distribution with mean determine the following
probabilities:
i. P(X>180)
Sol: For P(X>180)
Conversion into Z
when X=180 , Z = = = -1
P(X >180)=P(Z > -1)
= P(-1<Z<0)+P(0<Z<
P(X
=P(0<Z<1)+P(0<Z<) >1
80)
=P
= 0.3413+0.5 (Z
>-
1)
= 0.8413

X= X = =200
Z=-1 Z=0
ii. P(X<220)
Sol: For P(X < 220)
when X = 220 , Z = = = 1
P(X<220)=P(Z<1) = P(-<Z<0)+P(0<Z<
=0.5+0.3413 1 )
<
P(Z
= 0.8413 )=
2 20
<
P(X

iii. P(160<X<240)
Z=0 Z =1
Sol: For P(160<X<240)
when X=160, Z = = = -2
when X=240, Z = = = 2
P(160<X<220)=P(-2<Z<2)
)
= P(-2<Z< Z < 2
-2 <
=P(0<Z< P(
=2=20.4772 = 0.9544
Z = -2 Z=0 Z=2
iv. P(X >220)
For P(X >220) P(
Z >1
when X=220 , Z = = = 1 )
P(X >220)=P(Z >1) = P(0<Z<P(0<Z<
=0.5- 0.3413
Z=0 Z =1
= 0.1587

v. P(X<180 or X >220)
when X=180 , Z = = = -1 Z>
1
when X=220 , Z = = = 1

-1
Z<
P(X<180 or X >220)=P(Z<-1 or Z>1)
= P(-<Z<P(-1<Z<+ P(0<Z<P(0<Z<
= P(-<Z<P( 0<Z<+ P(0<Z<P(0<Z<
= 0.5 - 0.3413+0.5-0.3413
= 0.3174
vi. 10% of the values are less than what value of X ?
Sol: Let X1 be the value of X where 10% of the values are less than X1
i.e, P(X<X1) = 0.1
When X = X1, Z = = = - Z1 ………(i)

.1
P(X<X1) = 0.1

1)
=0
-Z
Z<
i.e P(Z<-Z1) = 0.1

P(
)=
i.e P(-<Z<0) - P(-Z1<Z<0)=0.1

X1
X<
P(
i.e 0.5-P(0<Z<Z1)=0.1
i.e P(0<Z<Z1)=0.40 X=X1 X=200
Z=-Z1
The value of probability closer to 0.40 in Z-Table is 0.3997 at Z=1.28Z =0

Z1=1.28
From ………..(i)
nearest value to 0.40
= - 1.28 (check differences)
X1 =174.4 i.e Reqd. value of X =174.4
 under 63 .Find mean ( μ ) and SD( σ )of the distribution.
#EX: In a normal distribution, 7% of the items are under 35 and 89% of the items are

Solution:
Let X be the normal variable and Z be the corresponding SNV
Let =35 and =63
Z=
When X = , Z= = - ………………………………i
When X = = 63 , Z= = ……………………….........ii
Now, P(X) = P(X<35) = 7% = 0.07

P(-α<Z<0)- P(-<Z<0) = 0.07

or, P(Z < -) = 0.07
or,

∴ - 1.48 (left side note to put -ve sign)

or, P(0<Z< = 0.5-0.07= 0.4
 μ = 35+1.48σ………..i
From (i),…………………….

Again,
P(X) = P(X<63) = 89%=0.89

P(-α<Z<0)+ P(0<Z<) = 0.89

or, P(Z < ) =0.89
or,

∴ (right side )
or, P(0<Z< = 0.89-0.5= 0.39

μ = 63-1.23σ………..ii
From (ii), …………………………..

μ=50.29 & σ =10.33

Solving i and ii,
Ex: 6 C.( Brief)Q. page: 316
# 3. Let z be the standard normal variable. Find
a. i. P(0< Z< 2.43)=?
ii. P(-2.43< Z< 0)=P(0< Z< 2.43) by symmetry=?
b.i. P(Z>1.43)=0.5-P(0<Z<1.43)=0.5-0.4236=?
Z=0
ii. P(Z<-1.43)=0.5-P(-1.43<Z< 0)= 0.5-P(0<Z<1.43)= 0.5- 0.4236=?
c. i. P(Z<1.96)= 0.5+ P(0<Z<1.96)=……
ii. P(Z> - 1.96)=P(-1.96<Z<0)+ 0.5= P(0<Z<1.96 )+ 0.5=?
d. i. P(0.43<Z<2.28)= P(0<Z<2.28)-P(0<Z<0.43)=?
ii. P(-2.83<Z< - 2.28)= P(-2.83<Z<0)-P(-2.28<Z<0)=P(0<Z<2.83)-P(0<Z<2.28)= ?
iii. P(-2.74<Z<1.56)=
iv. P(-1<Z<1)=
v. P(-2<Z<2)=
vi. P(-3<Z<3)=
Ex: 6 C.( Numerical)Q.# 1.
The IQ of students is normally distributed with mean 120 and SD 20.
i. What proportion of students have an IQ between 100 and 130.

Given : μ =120, σ =20

Solution: Let X be the normal variable representing the IQ score of the students.

Let Z be the corresponding SNV of X then ,

Z= =
Z = = -1
Z = = 0.5
When X = 100,
When X = 130,

P(100<X<130)= P(-1<Z<0.5)= P(-1<Z< 0)+P(0<Z<0.5)

Now,

=P(0<Z< 1)+P(0<Z<0.5)
= 0.3413+0.1915 = 0.5328
ii. An IQ above 140.
Solution:

Z= = = 1
When X = 140

P(X>140)= P(Z>1)= P(0<Z< α)-P(0<Z<1) =0.5 - 0.3413

Now,

= 0.1587
iii. An IQ below 150
Solution:

Z = = = 1.5
When X = 150

P(X<150)= P(Z<1.5)= P(-α<Z< 0)+P(0<Z<1.5) = 0.5 + 0.4332

Now,

= 0.9332
 If (X-30) > 0 then (X-30) > 5 →X >35
# 2. c. >5

If (X-30)<0 then -(X-30)>5 →(X-30)<-5

→X < 25
Let Z be the corresponding SNV of X then
Z= =
Z= = 1
Z = = -1
When X = 35,
When X = 25,

P(X > 35) = P(Z > 1)= P(0<Z< α)-P(0<Z<1)=0.5 - 0.3413 = 0.1587
Now,

P(X < 25) = P(Z < -1)= P(-α<Z< 0)-P(0<Z<-1)

= P(-α<Z< 0)-P(0<Z<1)= 0.5 - 0.3413 = 0.1587
∴ P(>5) = P(X > 35) + P(X < 25) = 0.1587+0.1587 = 0.3174
# 3. Solution:

Given : μ =68.22, 10.8 →σ =3.286

Let X represent the height of the soldiers.

Let Z be the corresponding SNV of X then ,

Z= =

Z = = 1.15
When X = 6ft= 72 inches,

P(X>72)= P(Z>1.15)= P(0<Z< α)-P(0<Z<1.15)

Now,

=0.5-0.3749

∴The numbers of soldiers expected to be over 6 ft

=0.1251

= 0.1251×1000=1251
#5. Solution: (Example of Finding score X when area is given)

Given : μ =662 kg, σ =32kg

Let X represents the qty of potatoes yield for an acre plot in a batch of 1000 plots.

Let Z be the corresponding SNV of X then ,

P(
X>

Z= =
X1
)=
P(
Z>
Z1
)=

= ………………..i
c. For the lowest yield of the best 100plots 0. 1

Let, X = kg ,
Now, X=662 X=X1

Or, P(0<Z< α) - P(0<Z<= 0.1

P(X > ) = P(Z > = = 0.1 Z =0 Z=-Z1

Or, P(0<Z<= 0.5 - 0.1 = 0.4

∴ = 1.28
From (i): 1.28 = →kg
( area closer to 0.4 is 0.3994 for which Z =1.28)
# 6. Solution:

Given : μ =1000hrs, σ =200hrs , Installed no. of lamps= 10000

Let X represents the burning hrs of the lamp

Let Z be the corresponding SNV of X then ,

Z= =

= =-1
a. For the life of lamp fail in the first 800 hrs
Let, X = 800hrs ,

P(X < 800) = P(Z <-1 =P(-α<Z< 0) - P(-1<Z<0

Now, X=800 X=1000
Z=-1 Z =0
=0.5-P(0<Z<1)
= 0.5-0.3413

∴No. of lamps fail in first 800 hrs=10000×0.1587= 1587

= 0.1587
 = =1
b. For the life of lamp fail in between 800 and 1200 burning hrs
When X = 1200 hrs ,
Now,

=P(-1<Z< 0) + P(0<Z<1
P(800 < X < 1200) = P(-1<Z <1

=0.3413 +0.3413
=0.6826

∴No. of lamps fail in between 800 & 1200 hrs=10000×0.6826

X=800 X=1000 X=1200

=6826
Z=-1 Z =0 Z=1
let X = hrs , Z= = -…………….i.
c. After what period of burning hrs 10% of the lamps would fail?

Now,

or, P(-α<Z< 0) - P(-<Z<=0.1

P( X < ) = P(Z <- = 10% =0.1

or, 0.5 – P(0<Z<)= 0.1 10%=0.1

or, P(0<Z<=0.4
=- 1.28 X= X=1000
Z=- Z =0
From i.
= - 1.28

∴ = 744hrs
………………….
Given : μ = 73 , σ =8
8.c) Solution: Let X represents the marks obtained by the students.

Let Z be the corresponding SNV of X then ,

Z= =

= ………………………………i
Let X = X= be the lower and upper limit of middle 60% of the students

= ……………………….........ii
When X = ,
When X = ,

P(<X< μ) + P(μ<X< ) = 60%= 0.6

Now,

Here, P(<X< μ) = 0.3 (being middle)

P(- < Z< 0) = 0.3
P(0< Z< ) = 0.3
 →= -0.84 ,
from( i)……….. :
=66.28

P(μ<X< ) = P(0<Z< )=0.3

Similarly,

→ =0.84,
from (ii)… :
= 79.72
∴ The limits are 66.28 and 79.72 i.e (66.28,79.72)
#9. Given : From a group of 1000 persons 20% of the persons have daily income

μ=? σ=60
more than Rs 570

Solution:
Let X be the normal variable and Z be the corresponding SNV
Z=
When X=570, Z= = ………………………………i

P(0<Z<∞)- P(0<Z<) = 0.2

Now, P(X>570) = P(Z >) =0.2
or,
20%

∴ 0.84
or, P(0<Z< = 0.5-0.2= 0.3

= 0.84 → μ = 519.6
From (i)

Z=0 𝑍1
#12. Given:

μ=? σ=?
7% of the items are under 35, 89% of the items are under 63

Solution:
Let X be the normal variable and Z be the corresponding SNV
Let =35 and =63
Z=
When X = , Z= = - ………………………………i
When X = = 63 , Z= = ……………………….........ii
Now, P(X) = P(X<35) = 7%=0.07

P(-α<Z<0)- P(-<Z<0) = 0.07

or, P(Z < -) =0.07
or,

∴ - 1.48 (left side note to put -ve sign)

or, P(0<Z< = 0.5-0.07= 0.4
 μ = 35+1.48σ………..i
From (i),…………………….

Again,
P(X) = P(X<63) = 89%=0.89

P(-α<Z<0)+ P(0<Z<) = 0.89

or, P(Z < ) =0.89
or,

∴ (right side )
or, P(0<Z< = 0.89-0.5= 0.39

μ = 63-1.23σ………..ii
From (ii), …………………………..

μ=50.29 & σ =10.33

Solving i and ii,
#13. Let X represents the height in inches normally distributed with mean = and S.D =
let , Z be the corresponding SNV. Then Z =
Given : 5% are under 60 inches & 40% are between 60 and 65 inches
For X=60, Z = = .......................i
For X=65, Z = ........................ii
Also, P(X<60)=5%
or, P(Z<-=0.05
or,P(- < Z < 0)-P(-=0.05
or, 0.5 - P(0<Z<) = 0.05
Better to take average, if differences are equal ,
or, P(0<Z<) = 0.45
otherwise take nearest value
1.645 {-( ) left side of mean }

END
From i ,
-1.645= = 60+1.645..........i
Again
P(60<X<65) = 40%=0.4
or, P(-) = 0.4
or, P(-) - P(-) =0.4
or, P(0) - P) =0.4
or, 0.45- 0.4= P)
or, P) =0.05
= - 0.13
From ii,
-0.13 = = 65+ 0.13..........ii
Solving , = 65.43 and = 3.3