The Roles of statistics

 The Engineering Method and

Statistical Thinking
 Collecting Engineering Data
 Mechanistic and Empirical Models
 Probability and Probability Models
 Objectives
 The role that statistics
 Making engineering decisions
 Enumerative vs analytical studies
 Methods of data collection
 The advantages of designed experiments
 Mechanistic models vs empirical models
 Why probability models?
 Statistics in Engineering

Problems of an engineer
• Refining existing products
• Designing new products or processes
 Statistics in Engineering

The field of Statistics deals with the collection,

presentation, analysis, and use of data to
• Make decisions
• Solve problems
• Design products and processes
 1-1 Statistics in Engineering

•Statistical techniques are useful for describing and

understanding variability.
•By variability, we mean successive observations of a
system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same
result.
•Statistics gives us a framework for describing this
variability and for learning about potential sources of
variability.
 1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

An engineer is designing a nylon connector to be used in an

automotive engine application. The engineer is considering
establishing the design specification on wall thickness at 3/32
inch but is somewhat uncertain about the effect of this decision
on the connector pull-off force. If the pull-off force is too low,
the connector may fail when it is installed in an engine. Eight
prototype units are produced and their pull-off forces measured
(in pounds): 12.6, 12.9, 13.4, 12.3, 13.6, 13.5, 12.6, 13.1.
 1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example
•The dot diagram is a very useful plot for displaying a small
body of data - say up to about 20 observations.
• This plot allows us to see easily two features of the data; the
location, or the middle, and the scatter or variability.
 1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example
• The engineer considers an alternate design and eight prototypes
are built and pull-off force measured.
• The dot diagram can be used to compare two sets of data

Figure 1-3 Dot diagram of pull-off force for two

wall thicknesses.
 1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

•Since pull-off force varies or exhibits variability, it is a

random variable.
• A random variable, X, can be model by
X=+
where  is a constant and  a random disturbance.
1-1 Statistics in Engineering
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

Three basic methods for collecting data:

– A retrospective study using historical data
– An observational study
– A designed experiment
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

– A retrospective study using historical data

would use either all or a sample of the
historical process data archived over
some period of time.
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

– An observational study: the engineer

observes the process or population,
disturbing it
1-2 Collecting Engineering Data

– A designed experiment: the engineer

makes deliberate in the controlable
variables of the system, observes the
resulting system output data
1-2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-9 A time series plot of concentration provides

more information than a dot diagram.
1-2 Observing Processes Over Time
Whenever data are collected over time it is important to plot
the data over time. Phenomena that might affect the system
or process often become more visible in a time-oriented plot
and the concept of stability can be better judged.

Figure 1-8 The dot diagram illustrates variation but does

not identify the problem.
1-2 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-14 Enumerative versus analytic study.

1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

A mechanistic model is built from our underlying

knowledge of the basic physical mechanism that relates
several variables.
Example: Ohm’s Law
Current = voltage/resistance
I = E/R
I = E/R + 
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

An empirical model is built from our engineering and

scientific knowledge of the phenomenon, but is not
directly developed from our theoretical or first-
principles understanding of the underlying mechanism.
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

Example
Suppose we are interested in the number average
molecular weight (Mn) of a polymer. Now we know
that Mn is related to the viscosity of the material (V),
and it also depends on the amount of catalyst (C)
and the temperature (T ) in the polymerization
reactor when the material is manufactured. The
relationship between Mn and these variables is

Mn = f(V,C,T)
say, where the form of the function f is unknown.
1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

In general, this type of empirical model is called a

regression model.

The estimated regression line is given by

Figure 1-15 Three-dimensional plot of the wire and pull
strength data.
1-4 Probability and Probability Models

Figure 1-16 Plot of the predicted values of pull strength

from the empirical model.
1-4 Probability and Probability Models

•Probability models help quantify the

risks involved in statistical inference, that
is, risks involved in decisions made every
day.
• Probability provides the framework for
the study and application of statistics.
 Main content:
 2-1. SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
 2-2. INTERPRETATIONS AND AXIOMS OF
PROBABILITY
 2-3. ADDITION RULES
 2-4. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
 2-5. MULTIPLICATION AND TOTAL PROBABILITY
RULES
 2-6. INDEPENDENCE
 2-7. BAYES’ THEOREM
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

2-1.1 Random Experiments

Definition
-An experiment that can result in different outcomes,
even though it is repeated in the same manner every
time, is called a random experiment
- Event is one or many outcomes of random experimet
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events
2-1.2 Sample Spaces
Definition
-The set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment is called the sample space of the
experiment.
-The sample space is denoted as S.
Ex: 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4)
4 (4,1)
5
6 (6,6)
More than 5: >5 , at least 3: >=3
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

2-1.2 Sample Spaces

Example 2-1
Consider an experiment in which you select a molded plastic part, such as
a connector, and measure its thickness. The possible values for thickness
depend on the resolution of the measuring instrument, and they also
depend on upper and lower bounds for thickness. However, it might be
convenient to define the sample space as simply the positive real line
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events
Example 2-1 (continued)
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Example 2-2
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Example 2-2 (continued)

 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Tree Diagrams
 Sample spaces can also be described graphically
with tree diagrams.
– When a sample space can be constructed in several
steps or stages, we can represent each of the n1 ways
of completing the first step as a branch of a tree.
– Each of the ways of completing the second step can
be represented as n2 branches starting from the ends
of the original branches, and so forth.
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Example 2-3
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Figure 2-5 Tree diagram for three messages.

 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

2-1.3 Events
Definition
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events
2-1.3 Events
Basic Set Operations
The union of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that
are containedin either of the two events. We denote the union as E1  E2 .

The intersection of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes
that are contained in both of the two events. We denote the intersection
as E1  E2 .

The complement of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in

the sample space that are not in the event. We denote the complement of
the event E as E’ . The notation is also used in other literature to denote
the complement.
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

2-1.3 Events
Example 2-6
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Definition

A1A2A3A4 ^ A1A2A3A4’= A1A2A3A4^ A4’ A1A2A3

=A1A2A3  A1A2A3
=
 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events

Venn Diagrams

Figure 2-8 Venn diagrams.

2.1.4 Counting Techniques
A printed circuit board has eight different locations in which a
component can be placed. If four different components are to
be placed on the board, how many different designs are
possible?