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Unit-V (1)

The document discusses uncertain knowledge and reasoning, focusing on acting under uncertainty and basic probability concepts. It introduces Bayes' Theorem, which relates conditional and marginal probabilities to determine the likelihood of events based on uncertain knowledge. The document also highlights various applications of uncertain reasoning in fields like medical diagnosis and machine analysis.

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Dr M T L Gayatri
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12 views

Unit-V (1)

The document discusses uncertain knowledge and reasoning, focusing on acting under uncertainty and basic probability concepts. It introduces Bayes' Theorem, which relates conditional and marginal probabilities to determine the likelihood of events based on uncertain knowledge. The document also highlights various applications of uncertain reasoning in fields like medical diagnosis and machine analysis.

Uploaded by

Dr M T L Gayatri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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UNIT-V

UNCERTAIN
KNOWLEDGE
AND REASONING
Syllabus
•Acting under Uncertainty, Basic Probability Notation
Bayes’ Rule and Its Use, Probabilistic Reasoning:
Representing Knowledge in an Uncertain Domain, The
• Semantics of Bayesian Networks, Efficient
Representation of Conditional Distributions,
Approximate Inference in Bayesian Networks, Relational
and First- Order Probability, Other Approaches to
Uncertain Reasoning; Dempster-Shafer theory.
Uncertainty

 When an agent knows enough facts about its


environment , the logical plans and actions
produces a guaranteed work.

 Unfortunately, if an agent don’t have access to the


whole environment, it acts under uncertainty.
Reason for Uncertainty
Situation of uncertain
knowledge
Medical diagnosis

Automobile repair

Electronic circuit analysis

Machine analysis

Student Behaviour
Acting under
Uncertainty
PROBABILITY

• PROBABILITY CAN BE DEFINED AS A CHANCE THAT AN UNCERTAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR. IT IS THE
NUMERICAL MEASURE OF THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EVENT WILL OCCUR. THE VALUE OF PROBABILITY
ALWAYS REMAINS BETWEEN 0 AND 1 THAT REPRESENT IDEAL UNCERTAINTIES.

1.0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, WHERE P(A) IS THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT A.


2.P(A) = 0, INDICATES TOTAL UNCERTAINTY IN AN EVENT A.
3.P(A) =1, INDICATES TOTAL CERTAINTY IN AN EVENT A.
• WE CAN FIND THE PROBABILITY OF AN UNCERTAIN EVENT BY USING THE BELOW FORMULA.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
EXAMPLE:
BAYES' THEOREM
• BAYES' THEOREMIS ALSO KNOWN AS BAYES' RULE, BAYES' LAW, OR BAYESIAN
REASONING, WHICH DETERMINES THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT WITH
UNCERTAIN KNOWLEDGE.

• IN
PROBABILITY THEORY, IT RELATES THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND
MARGINAL PROBABILITIES OF TWO RANDOM EVENTS.

• BAYES'THEOREM WAS NAMED AFTER THE BRITISH MATHEMATICIAN THOMAS


BAYES. THE BAYESIAN INFERENCE IS AN APPLICATION OF BAYES' THEOREM,
WHICH IS FUNDAMENTAL TO BAYESIAN STATISTICS.
BAYES' THEOREM • P(A|B) IS KNOWN AS POSTERIOR, WHICH WE
NEED TO CALCULATE, AND IT WILL BE READ AS
PROBABILITY OF HYPOTHESIS A WHEN WE HAVE
OCCURRED AN EVIDENCE B.

• P(B|A) IS CALLED THE LIKELIHOOD, IN WHICH WE


CONSIDER THAT HYPOTHESIS IS TRUE, THEN WE
CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY OF EVIDENCE.

• P(A) IS CALLED THE PRIOR PROBABILITY,


PROBABILITY OF HYPOTHESIS BEFORE
CONSIDERING THE EVIDENCE

• P(B) IS CALLED MARGINAL PROBABILITY, PURE


PROBABILITY OF AN EVIDENCE.
Bayes' theorem Example

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