World and Energy

Fall 2022

5AM, DOHA, QATAR

Sunrise Persian Gulf view from Qatar,
 Energy Resources

• Supplementing free solar energy

– 99% of heat comes from the sun
– Without the sun, the earth would be –240 0C (-
400 0F)
• We supplement the other 1% with primarily
non-renewable energy sources
Non-Renewable Energy Sources
Natural
Petroleum Gas

Conventional

Nuclea Coal

Natural
Unconventional Gas in
Oil Shale Hydrates
Non-Renewable Energy Sources
• Conventional
– Petroleum
– Natural Gas
– Coal
– Nuclear

• Unconventional (examples)
– Oil Shale
– Natural gas hydrates in marine sediment 4
Important Nonrenewable Energy Sources
 Energy Transfers
• Energy can not be created nor destroyed,
only changed.

o Law of Conservation of Energy

o First Law of Thermodynamics

• Energy will always transfer from high to

low.
• No energy transfer is 100% efficient.
 Power Units: The Terawatt Challenge

Energy
1J=
1 103 106 109 1012 1 W for 1s

Power
1W 1 kW 1 MW 1 GW 1 TW
Energy use
Energy Defined ; The ability to do work

ENERGY REALITY ; The basis of all the lifeforms

Energy takes many forms;

Mechanical ( Kinetic, Poterntial), Chemical,

Radiation(including light),Nuclear
electrical
Lifeforms and artificial devices ie machines may convert or
transform, energy into forms that are more useful
 Evaluating Energy Resources
• Renewable
• Future availability
• Net energy yield
• It takes energy to get energy
• Habitat degradation
• Cost (initial and ongoing)
• Community disruption
• Political or international issues
• Suitability in different locations
• Polluting (air, water, noise, visual)
 Energy Resources
• Renewable (16%) • Non-renewable (84%)
– Solar – Oil
– Wind – Natural gas
– Falling, flowing water – Coal
– Biomass – Nuclear power
A machine efficiency= useful output/energy input

• sun Light chemical

Veggies
• Electrical to thermal
Kettle

• Chemical to mechanical
food to people bicycling

• Chemical to mechanical
Fuel to car
 Energy and energy resources

• The sun the sun • Cosmosphere

• Wind • Atmosphere
• Rivers waves tides • Hydrosphere
biomass
• Oil, natural gas l • Biosphere
coal • Geosphere
• Geothermal ,
atomic nuclei
 Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

• 84% of energy is wasted in the United States

– 41% degradation (2nd law of Thermodynamics)
– 43% unnecessary
• Fuel wasting vehicles
• Furnaces
• Poorly insulated buildings
• U.S. unnecessarily wastes 2/3 of the energy
that the rest of the world’s population
consumes!
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Four primary energy wasters:

Incandescent light bulb

Nuclear Power
Cars
Coal
Research Vision cont’d

 Challenge 2: Energy costs

Energy Costs represent ~15-21% of total production costs
Best Practice Energy Saving Opportunity (258 TBtu/yr)
R&D Energy Saving Opportunity (409 TBtu/yr)
1400 Impractical Energy Recovery Opportunity
Minimum Energy Requirement

Energy Savings Opportunity

Current Energy
1200 Consumption
= 1246 Trillion Btu/Year

Energy Consumption (Trillion Btu/Year)

258

1000 Best Practice

= 988 Trillion Btu/Year

800
409

600 Practical Minimum

= 579 Trillion Btu/Year

400

200 Theoretical Minimum

= 184 Trillion Btu/Year
Source: US Department of Energy, Energy and Environmental Profile of the U.S.
Mining Industry (2012)
0

 Challenge 3: Environmental footprint Source: Mining Energy Bandwidth Study (2007)

New regulations Smaller environmental footprint

o Pollution (diesel exhaust gas is classified as carcinogenic!)
o Carbon taxation 16
 Energy Crisis

•Global warming / GHG

•Fossil fuel Price

North America is using 1/3 of the world Energy

 Global Consumption
• Although continents
such as N. America and
Europe use the most
oil currently, countries
such as China and
India are rapidly
growing thus
increasing their need
for oil

https://www.google.com/search?
q=global+energy+consumption&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA855CA855&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahU
KEwj-uY6ey-n4AhUaUjABHQrWBLkQ_AUoAXoECAMQAw&biw=1536&bih=775&dpr=1.25#imgrc=JiQHfhS-
 The map below shows the pattern of total
energy consumption across the world

Organization for Economic Co- https://www.energymix.co.nz/our-

operation and Development (OECD) consumption/global-consumption/
 Too many people around the world still don't have access to
basic energy, including electricity.
770 M do not have access to electricity

https://www.energymix.co.nz/our-
consumption/global-consumption/
BP Statistical Review of World Energy
June 2015
bp.com/statisticalreview
#BPstats

Primary energy data slides

 Primary energy

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015
Primary energy world consumption
Million tonnes oil equivalent

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015
Primary energy regional consumption pattern 2014
Percentage

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015
Primary energy consumption per capita 2014
Tonnes oil equivalent

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015
Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios at end
2014
Years

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

© BP p.l.c. 2015
Peak Production of Petroleum in US

28
1999 Regional Shares of Crude Oil Production (3445
Mt)

29
30
World Total Primary Energy Supply in 1998
(9491 Mtoe)

**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, heat, etc.

31
World Energy Consumption

32
World Energy Consumption

33
 World Total Energy Consumption 1990 -
2020 (Quadrillion Btu)

Region/Country 1990 1997 2020

United States 84.0 94.2 120.9
Western Europe 59.9 64.0 78.4
Japan 18.1 21.3 25.4
China 27.0 36.7 97.3
Former Soviet Union 61.0 40.8 57.3
Total World 346.7 379.9 607.7
34
 Global Energy Use Since 1860
Million tons of oil equivalent

gas

End of WW2

oil

coal

Source: www.manicore.com
www.oga.no
 World Primary Energy Demand
18 000
16 000
14 000
Oil
12 000
10 000
Mtoe

8 000 Gas
6 000
4 000 Coal

2 000 Other renewables Nuclear

0 Hydro
1970
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Oil, gas and coal together account for 83% of the growth in energy
demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario
www.oga.no
Source: IEA
High Demand For Energy
and
Unreliable Energy sources
 Four Oil Crises
• First Oil Crisis: 1973-74
– Arab Oil boycott, 4X OPEC price increase
• Second Oil Crisis: 1978
– Iranian Revolution
• Third Oil Crisis: 1981-86
– Reagan Depression
• Fourth Oil Crisis: 1990-1991
– Gulf War
 Energy Future

•Demand for energy is rising around the world

•Global demand for oil and natural gas will likely grow 45% by 2030
compared with 2006.

•Environmental constraints / Carbon Tax

• Major slow down in China and India ‘s economy

•Major breakthrough in Alternative energy in Alternative energy

•Increase in fossil fuel = Increase in R&D in Alternative Energy
Canada and the Kyoto Protocol
 Observations of Climate Change
Evaporation & rainfall are increasing;
• More of the rainfall is occurring in downpours
• Corals are bleaching
• Glaciers are retreating
• Sea ice is shrinking
• Sea level is rising
• Wildfires are increasing
• Storm & flood damages are much larger
 Argentina Portage Lake/Glacier

Upsala Glacier

You can observe a lot

by watching…
 Retreating Glaciers

August 13, 1941 August 31, 2004

Muir Glacier, Alaska

Photographed by William O. Field and Bruce F. Molnia

43
Projected World Peak Production of
Petroleum

44
45
 12 EIA Scenarios
for Conventional Oil

The peak depends heavily on economic growth

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy 2004
www.oga.no
 The Oil Prize and World Geopolitics

1980: Iraq-Iran
War

1978: Iranian
Revolution
1974:
The IEA
Established

1967: 1990-91:
6 Day War Kuwait War

1960: OPEC 1973: Yom

Foundation Kippur War
2003:
Iraq War

www.oga.no
The polar ice is reduced in depth and area

January 1990 January 1999

These images show decreasing thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice
from January 1, 1990, and January 1, 1999, respectively. The images
were created using data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program's Special Scanning Microwave Imager. (Courtesy NASA)

www.oga.no
www.oga.no
 China’s and new Oil Allies:
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela Africa

Chinese Oil Imports from Africa

Chinese Oil Imports from Venezuela

Chinese Oil Imports from Saudi Arabia

50 1000

500
900
40 800
400
700
30
600
(kb/d)

300
(kb/d)

(kb/d)
20 500
200
400
100 10 300
200
0 0
100
1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005
 THE END OF CHEAP OIL
Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère,
Scientific American, March 1998

Derricks bristling above the Los Angeles basin.

 Reduction of oil output

M. King Hubbert, a geologist with Shell Oil, in 1956 to

predict correctly that oil from the lower 48 American states
would peak around 1969.
Oil Future
2020 EDITION

II
THE RETURN
OF THE KING
 Source: BP, The Statistical Review of World Energy 2017,
www.bp.com
Comment

https://espace-mondial-atlas.sciencespo.fr/en/topic-resources/map-5C26-EN-oil-production-and-
consumption-2016.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-map-of-winners-and-losers-from-
Americas
Africa
“The Seven Sisters”

In mid-20th century, these

seven Western-owned oil
giants controlled most of the
world’s oil reserves, refineries
and marketing capacity.
 Can the Caspian Sea Be Our
Savior?
• The Caspian sea is an untouched region of
potentially big oil resources. The newness of
this region could alleviate problems that
would result from a cutoff of 25% of oil
imported to the U.S. thereby giving the U.S. a
respite in its oil imports while it tries to create
a less oil dependent nation.
 The Oil problem will get worse before it
gets better

Problems with the Caspian Sea area:

• Geopolitics
• Pipelines
• Oil dependence from other countries
• The lack of desire on the part of Americans to
look for alternative means
Middle East
• Petrolestan!!! ASIA
 Geopolitics and Pipelines
• Five countries border the
Caspian sea and each have
their own agendas regarding
the politics in the region
• Each of the five countries as
well as their neighbors and
other countries have their own
agendas especially when it
comes to the pipelines
– Russia
– Kazakhstan
– Turkmenistan
– Iran
–
Caspian Sea Treaty
Caspian Sea recent division
 The players include:
• The Five Caspian Sea Neighbors
• The United States
• China
• Turkey
• Other Regional Neighbors like Pakistan,
Afghanistan, and India
• The Oil Companies
 Oil Dependence from other countries
• It’s not just the United States who is seeking
more and more oil to meet its needs

• Other countries, especially Asian countries, are

going to have additional oil needs in the coming
decades

• China and India with their large populations are

going to exceed the U.S. demands for oil in the
coming years
The Geopolitical and Pipeline Concerns
 The Caspian Sea
Facts and Figures:

– The Caspian Sea is 700 Miles – Five countries border the

Long sea

– It contains an estimated 200 – The sea is actually a lake

billion barrels of oil and up to as it has no ocean outlet
300 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of
natural gas
– Disputes over control of
the resources and
– Much of the area remains boundary issues exist
unexplored and unexploited
The Caspian Sea
 – Pipelines to get the oil out have become a political issue
• Problems:
– China
There and the United
are only estimates States have
as to thetheir own agendas
reserves; as to
no one really
who
knows should get theoiloilexists
how much and where the pipelines should go
– Political instability exists in the region
– Pipeline security is questionable
1. Russia
Russia has the most influence in the region

• The Sovietlike
Countries Union controlled and
Turkmenistan mostAzerbaijan
of the region
are and
only haddependent
heavily to share aupon
border with Iran.
Russia
•• Now
Russiafour of thethe
controls current countries
only current surrounding
pipeline the
from the
Sea wereSea
Caspian once part of the Soviet Union
Russia Wants to Maintain its Influence
• Russia has maintained pipeline supremacy in the
region
– “Since 1991, Russia has made a concerted effort to ensure
that existing pipelines continue routing through Russia,
and it has largely succeeded.”
– All current pipelines pass through Russia
• The pipeline from Baku and the pipeline from Kazakhstan have all
been routed to Russian oil terminals in the Black Sea
• Russia has maintained this supremacy by encouraging countries to
take advantage of the current system rather than investing in a
new pipeline system
2. Iran
Oil, the CIA and the Third World: Iran 1953
• Prime Minister
Mossadegh nationalizes
Anglo-Iranian Oil
Company
• CIA coup – “Operation
Ajax”
video clip, c.10 min, on c
oup
• Shah of Iran as American
ally until 1979 Islamic
Revolution Violence in Tehran, 1953, during CIA-
organized coup against nationalist
Prime Minister Mohammad
Mossadegh.
 Iran could be a key player
• Where Iran once bordered only the Soviet
Union, it now shares its borders with three
newly created states, two of which border the
Caspian Sea – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan
• Iran is the only country bordering the Caspian
Sea to be a member of OPEC
 “Axis of Evil” – The U.S. v Iran
• Since
The U.S.
thehas 1979imposed
hostage sanctions
crisis in Tehran,
against Iran
the U.S.
and has
U.S.labeled
Iran a terrorist
companies are state,
prohibited
a labelfrom
which
accessing
was repeated
any oil or
in the
investing
2002
State
in anyofoilthe
fields
Union
in Iran
address
• The U.S. discourages
vigorously opposes
the layinganyofcontact
oil andwith
gas pipelines
Iran
through Iran
3. Kazakhstan
 Potential Oil Giant
• Kazakhstan boasts the third largest deposits in
the world after the Middle East and Russia
– There are 10bn-17illion barrels of proven oil
reserves and some estimates claim there are
about another 70 billion barrels worth of oil
– Three quarters of the Caspian Sea lies under the
Kazak sector
 With Existing Pipelines
• An existing pipeline from Kazakhstan through
Russia’s Black Sea port makes this country one
of the most stable in the region
• Kazakhstan is landlocked and must rely on
pipelines to get its oil and gas out of the
country
 Heavy Ties With Russia
• The only existing pipelines for oil and gas are Russia
pipelines that go through Russian terminals thus
making Kazakhstan and the other countries heavily
dependent on Russia

• Russia and Kazakhstan share a border and share the

boundaries for their oil and gas fields in the Caspian
Sea which only increases the ties between the two
countries
• Kazakhstan signed a collective security agreement
after it gained its independence but recently refused
to increase military cooperation with Russia
4. Turkmenistan
 Future Uncertain
• Turkmenistan’s proven oil reserves at
546 million barrels
• More than 20% of its reserves are under
production The country’s oil output
remains a fraction of what it was during
the Soviet era
• Oil refining will become a larger sector of
its economy than oil production
 Pipelines Critical
• Today, Turkmenistan relies almost exclusively
on Russia’s pipeline network for its oil and gas
exports
• A more convenient line through Iran has been
proposed
– This line would only require 100km of pipes to link
Turkmenistan to Iran’s pipeline network
5. Azerbaijan
Russia, Iran and the U.S.
• Russia
– As a former Soviet state,
Azerbaijan has many links
with Russia
– These links include one of
the new pipelines Russia
built that goes from Baku
through Russian terminals
to the Black Sea
 Russia
… The big country with the big
supplies
 Russian Total Liquids
Production and Consumption 1992-2008E

www.eia.doe.gov

www.oga.no
Ca. 700 BCM

www.oga.no
www.oga.no
 ?

www.oga.no
Source: CIA
 Russia
• Dominates the Eurasian High North

• Needs transportation alternatives

• Wants to control the petro-sector

– Gazprom important instrument commercially as well as
politically
– But needs foreign technology

• Integration into international economics and politics

– WTO, EU, US, China

• The world energy super-power

– But: ”Locked in”
– ”Imperial energy overstretch”?

www.oga.no
 Gazprom increasingly stronger
-at home and abroad…

Source: Gazprom

www.oga.no
 • US Geological Survey expects 25 % of
world unproven reserves to be in the
Artic Area..

www.oga.no
 North Pole ice extentions average 1978-
2002
February September

www.oga.no
The European Union
as big energy consumer..
Oil Prize Developments 1861-2006

1978-80: 1985/86:
2d Oil Shock Oil Price Callapse
”OPEC II”

2004:
3d Oil Shock

1973/74:
1st Oil Shock
”OPEC I”

www.oga.no
 Primary energy demand and
“negajoules” for EU-25 1971-2005
“Negajoules”:
Energy savings calculated on the basis of 1971 energy intensity

www.oga.no Source: Action plan for energy efficiency: Realizing the potential, COM (2006)545 final 19.10.2006
 EU (25) Gas Demand Projections to 2030
75 % of incremental demand is for power

+70 %

www.oga.no Source: WEO 2004 (IEA)

 Gas Resources for the European Gas Market
Reserve size and transport distances to the EU
Cccc
hh Barents Sea

Russia

Caribbean

Pipeline to nearest
European market
LNG to nearest European
regasification terminal

www.oga.no
Source: Statoil
Rapid Growth of the European Natural Gas Grid

1970: 2007:

- Relative Price Stability and Long-Term Contracts

www.oga.no
 Gas resources for the Eurasian market
- will a “gas-OPEC” be created?

The “Gas ellipse”

www.oga.no
Policy depends on schools of thought:
Is oil and gas economically a scarce
or an abundant resource?

Scarce
(peak Oil)

?
abundant

2015 2030

www.oga.no
 IRAN
• Iran
– Only 100 kilometers of pipeline would
be needed to link Azerbaijan to Iran’s
pipeline networks to the Persian Gulf
– Iran would prefer to import oil for its
northern regions (supplied by
Azerbaijan) so it could free up its
southern oil fields for export via the
Persian Gulf
 Azerbaijan
– Azerbaijan does not currently supply oil to
Iran, instead it sends its oil through
pipelines from Turkey to the Mediterranean
Sea
– The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline is favored by the
United States
• This pipeline would run from Baku to the
Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan
• As a result of the September 11th attacks, this
proposal has been give new life and
construction of the almost $3 billion pipeline
may begin soon
 Pipeline Turmoil:
Geography, Politics and More
Why are pipelines such a big deal?
• “In landlocked central Asia
there is no point in
pumping oil and gas if you
cannot get it to market.
All the pipelines in the
area run over Russian soil
and, until now, the
Kremlin has been playing
hardball limiting the
access to pipelines and
charging usurious tariffs.”
 Which Way to Go?
• There are four pipeline options
– North-Northwest
– Westbound
– Eastbound
– Southbound
Middle East
Pipelines in the Region
 North-Northwest: Linking pipelines to
Russia’s existing system
• Pro • Con
– Russia has an – It’s system is complex
and poorly maintained
existing system
– The countries who
– This is the easiest have used this system
option and the resent Russia’s control
fastest way to to of the export market
transport oil and and hard currency
gas out of the – Many of the countries
region would prefer to bypass
Russia altogether
Russia’s Pipelines
 Westbound: Baku-Ceyhan
• Con
Pro
– Most
Expensive
favored option by the U.S.
– Target is primarily Europe and companies are wary of
investing in a mature market with limited growth
 Eastbound : Long-distance pipelines used to transport oil to China
and eventually Asia-Pacific

•• Pro
Con
– An 1,800 mile proposed pipeline from Kazakhstan and a 4,200 mile
– This is the
proposed mostfrom
pipeline expensive and geographically
Turkmenistan difficult
to China would be the most
alternative
direct way to link Central Asia and the Far East
It’s Not Just the Oil. The Middle East War and the Conquest of Natural Gas Reserve

https://www.globalresearch.ca/its-not-just-
the-oil-the-middle-east-war-and-the-conquest-
of-natural-gas-reserves/5307589
Suggested Map of the oil pipe line from Mid east to Europ

http://www.iamawake.co/the-real-motive-for-
the-war-in-syria/
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/
2016/10/24/oil-gas-war-over-syria-maps.html
 The Oil-Gas War Over Syria

ERIC ZUESSE | 24.10.2016 | WORLD /

MIDDLE EAST
Syria before and after war

https://petapixel.com/2016/08/02/26-photos-
show-war-changed-syria/
 Importance of oil and Gas
As recently as the year 1900, coal accounted
for 55% of the entire world’s energy use while
oil and natural gas contributed a mere 3% of
the world’s energy. One century later, coal
provided only 25% of the planet’s energy,
natural gas has risen to 23% and oil reigns
supreme at just under 40%.

Back in the year 2000, demand for oil was

approximately 75 million barrels per day! Less
than ten years later, the IEA (International
Energy Agency) now calculates that our global
thirst for crude oil will actually “DOUBLE” by
the year 2030.
Southbound: Two pipelines – one to Iran and another to Pakistan and
India though Afghanistan

• Con
Pro
– The U.S. through
Pipeline opposesIran
any is
pipeline
the most
through
economical
Iran and
of therefore
all options
– few investors
Pipeline have
to India beenease
would attracted
burden on that energy hungry
– country
India wants to bypass Pakistan completely
The Other Players: The U.S., China, and the Oil Companies
 The United States

• The United States is trying to create ties with

some of the former Soviet countries in order
to contain Russian dominance in the region
• Ironically, the U.S. presence in the region due
to September 11, has eased some of the
pressure to follow Russia’s lead by some of the
Caspian states
U.S.A
 The United States, ctd.
• U.S. presence has been seen by some to
provide an excuse to side with the U.S.
• Unfortunately, the U.S. policies against Iran
have locked U.S. companies from that market.
An Iranian pipeline would only harm the
companies even more
 China
• China will increasingly be searching for oil
• The Asia-Pacific region as a whole is dependent on
Middle East oil
– More than 90% of the region’s oil comes from the Middle
East as opposed to 25% of the United States’ oil
– China imported a record 6.7m barrels a day (b/d) of oil in
2015 and forecasted "to overtake the U.S. as the world's
biggest crude importer in 2016" According to the Energy
Information Administration (EIA) China first became the
"world's largest net importer of petroleum and other
liquids" by the end of 2013.
China
 China and India: Oil Demand Comparison

• China has a much higher oil demand due to its size and resources

7,000

6,000
India China
5,000

4,000
(kb/d)

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006
China sea
Man made islands in China seas
 China, ctd
• Kazakhstan as China’s neighbor and as the
nation most dependent on a foreign country’s
pipeline is just as likely to look East as to look
West to sell its oil
 The Oil Companies
• All the large oil companies have expressed
interest in investing in the region
• The oil companies are expected to invest the
billions of dollars to create and maintain the
needed pipelines
• Politics have added difficulties to the
investment possibilities in the regions
ExxonMobil Sites
 The Oil Companies, ctd.
• U.S. oil companies are prohibited from
investing with Iran
– But other companies are not
• Political instability in the region makes
companies hesitant to invest
– Fear of MidEast like problems compound the
region’s image as unstable
 Pipeline Security

• The present and future pipelines will cross many

borders
• The issue is who will protect the pipelines and who
will pay for the security
 Legal Issues
• The Status of the Caspian Sea: Is it a
Lake or a Sea
• If it is a sea then the three mile limit of
the territorial waters applies
• Boundary disputes are an issue
between many of the countries in the
region
 Legal Issues - What can be done?
• Regional discussions and treaties are the best
means of solving the boundary disputes
• Contracts between oil companies and the
countries need to address issues of
infrastructure, pipeline security and pipeline
transportation
Legal Issues – What Can be Done?
• The United States needs to eliminate the
barriers it has imposed on U.S. oil companies
in order to prevent investment in Iranian oil.
• This would involve Congress as well as the
President.
 Summary
• The Caspian Sea is filled with possibilities but
two big problems stand in its way to becoming
the savior to US dependence on Mideast oil
– Pipelines need to be built
– Politics affect everything in the region and at this
time hampers a productive solution to the pipeline
problem
 Summary, ctd.
• The U.S. and China seem to the key outside players in
that they have the money to invest in pipelines and
the desire to have the oil
– If the oil flows West then China’s dependence which is far
greater than the U.S.’s, on the Mideast would remain the
same
– If the oil flows East then there would be more oil for the
U.S. but the dependence on that region has at the least
remained the same and at the worst grown
 Renewable Energy Sources
• Solar photovoltaics
• Solar thermal power
• Passive solar air and water heating
• Wind
• Hydropower
• Biomass
• Ocean energy
• Geothermal
• Waste to Energy

145
 Additional Resources
• US Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration
– web site: www.eia.doe.gov

146
 Earth-based solar energy

6 land blocks of 3 TW are enough for humanity today

Oil in The Middle East

| H orm
uz 18
m b/d
 1st commercial
The petroleum industry grew through the 1800s ~ becoming a leading
international industry as the 20th century progressed.
oil well drilled
Today’s top 3 oil producing countries: Saudiin Poland.
Arabia
Russia
United States 1858
1st North
American
oil well
drilled in
Ontario,
Canada

Timeline

2000 +
1950s
1853

1858

1891

1896

1937

1961
1946
 80% of the world’s accessible reserves are in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Iraq

Qatar

Kuwait
 Location

The majority of the

Persian Gulf Oil
Fields are located in
the Persian Gulf
Basin
Located between
Eurasia and Arabian
Plates
The top 5 future oil
fields in the world all
reside in the Middle
East
 Geologic History
The Persian Gulf is the remains of a once larger
basin now in filled by sediment from
Mesopotamian Rivers
Collision of Arabian and Eurasian plates at the
Mesozoic/Cenozoic boundary produced the Zagros
Fold Belt and the large Mesopotamian Foredeep
Has been an area of consistent deposition during
the Paleozoic that led to the accumulation of a very
thick sedimentary lens of carbonate rocks and
evaporates
 Reserves

Reserves represent quantities of crude oil estimated to

be commercially recoverable with current technology
 Oil Development Costs
OECD Europe*

US offshore*

World*

UAE

Algeria

Iran “Petrolist”
Iraq States
Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

0 5 10 15 20
dollars (2004) per barrel
Exploration and development Lifting
MENA oil reserves are among the cheapest to find, develop & extract in the
world, with total production costs ranging from $3 to $5 per barrel
www.oga.no
Source: IEA
 The largest oil producers and exporters
in 2006 Incl. NGL/condensate)
Production Exports

Norway has a R/P-ratio < 10 år,

www.oga.no Saudi-Arabia > 100 år Source: Petroleum Economics Ltd.
 World Crude Oil Flows2028
2008

www.oga.no
 Renewable Energy Cost Trends

www.oga.no
Alternative strategies to improve security-of-
supply for the consuming countries

• More and safe non-renewables (oil, gas, coal)

• More renewables
• Improved energy efficiency
• Energy savings
• …

All can be influenced by both economic and political means and by

market mechanisms.
Optimization can be based on short or long-term considerations

PRESENT: STRONG EMHPASIS ON MORE OIL AND GAS;

FOR THE EU: MORE NATURAL GAS.

www.oga.no
 Our questions now:
• Is oil a scarce or an abundant resource in
economic terms?
– Implications for planning and investments
• Long vs short term
• Does policy matters?

www.oga.no
 The stone age did not end because
there was a lack of stones!

…… OIL AGE
MAN

www.oga.no
Doha ,Qatar
 Qatar

$70,736.88
In 2017, the GDP per
capita in Qatar amounted
to around 62,826.06 U.S.
dollars.
 Villagio Mall , Doha , Qatar

Would not exist without mining and petroleum

 Future changes?
• The availability of substitutes
• Efffiency gains
– Production
– Consumption
• Incremental or radical change?

www.oga.no
 Reference

• Energy Resources:
Production and ConsumptionEnvironmental Sustainability Educational Resources
prepared by
Gregory A. Keoleian
Associate Research Scientist,
School of Natural Resources and Environment
Co-Director, Center for Sustainable Systems
University of Michigan

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

June 2015 ----Primary energy data slibp.com/statisticalreview#Bpstatsdes

Caspian Sea: Oil And Politics, Is It Worth It? By Cathie Carlson

Energy Resources:
Production and ConsumptionEnvironmental Sustainability Educational Resources
prepared by
Gregory A. Keoleian
Associate Research Scientist,
School of Natural Resources and Environment
Co-Director, Center for Sustainable Systems
University of Michigan

https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/oil-conflict-and-us-national-interests

165
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bda6YuV
uxWE
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZjOjO_5
gjQ