RAHUL DIXIT

TYBMM

Contemporary issue

INFLATION

INTRODUCTION
Inflation is when prices continue to creep upward, usually as a result of overheated economic growth or too much capital in the market chasing too few opportunities. Usually wages creep upwards, also, so that companies can retain good workers. Unfortunately, the wages creep upwards more slowly than do the prices, so that your standard of living can actually decrease..

TYPES OF INFLATION
The basic causes of inflation were covered at AS level. This note considers the demand and supply-side courses in more detail including the impact of changes in the exchange rate and the prices of goods and services in the international economy.

WAGE INFLATION
Wage inflation is also called as demand-pull or excess demand inflation. This type of inflation occurs when total demand for goods and services in an economy exceeds the supply of the same. When the supply is less, the prices of these goods and services would rise, leading to a situation called as demand-pull inflation. This type of inflation affects the market economy adversely during the wartime.

COST-PUSH INFLATION
As the name suggests, if there is increase in the cost of production of goods and services, there is likely to be a forceful increase in the prices of finished goods and services. For instance, a rise in the wages of laborers would raise the unit costs of production and this would lead to rise in prices for the related end product. This type of inflation may or may not occur in conjunction with demand-pull inflation.

PRICING POWER INFLATION

Pricing power inflation is more often called as administered price inflation. This type of inflation occurs when the business houses and industries decide to increase the price of their respective goods and services to increase their profit margins. A point noteworthy is pricing power inflation does not occur at the time of financial crises and economic depression, or when there is a downturn in the economy. This type of inflation is also called as oligopolistic inflation because oligopolies have the power of pricing their goods and services.

SECTORAL INFLATION
This is the fourth major type of inflation. The sectoral inflation takes place when there is an increase in the price of the goods and services produced by a certain sector of industries. For instance, an increase in the cost of crude oil would directly affect all the other sectors, which are directly related to the oil industry. Thus, the ever-increasing price of fuel has become an important issue related to the economy all over the world. Take the example of aviation industry. When the price of oil increases, the ticket fares would also go up. This would lead to a widespread inflation throughout the economy, even though it had originated in one basic sector. If this situation occurs when there is a recession in the economy, there would be layoffs and it would adversely affect the work force and the economy in turn.

OTHER TYPES OF INFLATION

Fiscal Inflation : Fiscal Inflation occurs when there is excess government spending. This occurs when there is a deficit budget. Hyperinflation : Hyperinflation is also known as runaway inflation or galloping inflation. This type of inflation occurs during or soon after a war. This can usually lead to the complete breakdown of a countrys monetary system. However, this type of inflation is short-lived. In 1923, in Germany, inflation rate touched approximately 322 percent per month with October being the month of highest inflation.

HOW TO REDUCE THE LEVEL OF INFLATION IN AN ECONOMY

REDUCE DEMAND PRESSURES If inflation is caused by high demand then * Raise interest rates to reduce consumers disposable incomes * Raise interest rates to discourage borrowing and demand * Raise taxes to reduce disposable income and spending

REDUCE COST PUSH PRESSURES Limit wage increases if possible e.g. public sector workers Force electricity and gas companies to hold their prices Increase the value of in order to reduce the cost of importing REDUCE MONEY SUPPLY PRESSURES If inflation is caused by too much money in the economy Print less money Withdraw some money from circulation.

 The 1990s is widely described in general as a price stability era all over the globe. During the early part of the decade developed and developing countries alike experienced "a distinct ebbing of inflation", so observes India's central banking authorities, Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Inflation in India, barring some external factors like bouts of increase in international oil price and natural disasters like drought or flood, is showing an ebbing trend. The first half of India's fiscal 2002-03 (beginning April 1, 2002) witnessed uptrend in inflation largely due to increase in oil prices twice during the period and adverse impact of drought on agri- products leading to increase in prices particularly of oilseeds and edible oils. The efficient handling of supply management helped inflation eased in the second half of the fiscal. As a whole at the end of the fiscal 2002-03 inflation was up 3.3 percentage points. In the light of overall variation in wholesale price inflation, the inflation in fiscal 2002-03 was dominated by non-food items unlike preceding years, according to a RBI report.

INFLATION IN INDIA

 One of the major import contents of India's inflation in fiscal 2002-03 were edible oils and oil cakes that recorded highest price increase. Acute shortfall in production of the commodity led to about half the domestic demand met by imports. The RBI report also states that the underlying inflation (measured by average WPI) during this fiscal was dominated by manufactured product groups. Within manufactures again, edible oils, oil cakes and manmade fibres were largely responsible uppish trend in inflation. Inflation measured by average consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) however eased in fiscal 2002-03.

HOW INDIA CALCULATES INFLATION

India uses the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) to calculate and then decide the rate of inflation in the economy. Most developed countries use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to calculate inflation. WPI was first published in 1902, and was one of the major economic indicators available to policy makers until it was replaced by the Consumer Price Index in most developed countries by in the 1970s. WPI is the index that is used to measure the change in the average price level of goods traded in wholesale market. In India, price data for 435 commodities is tracked through WPI which is an indicator of movement in prices of commodities in all trades and transactions. It is also the price index which is available on a weekly basis with the shortest possible time lag -- two weeks. The Indian government has taken WPI as an indicator of the rate of inflation in the economy

CPI is a statistical time-series measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is a price index that tracks the prices of a specified basket of consumer goods and services, providing a measure of inflation. CPI is a fixed quantity price index and considered by some a cost of living index. Under CPI, an index is scaled so that it is equal to 100 at a chosen point in time, so that all other values of the index are a percentage relative to this one. Some economists argue that it is high time that India abandoned WPI and adopted CPI to calculate inflation.

India is the only major country that uses a wholesale index to measure inflation. Most countries use the CPI as a measure of inflation, as this actually measures the increase in price that a consumer will ultimately have to pay for. CPI is the official barometer of inflation in many countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France, Canada, Singapore and China. The governments there review the commodity basket of CPI every 4-5 years to factor in changes in consumption pattern. WPI does not properly measure the exact price rise an end-consumer will experience because, as the same suggests, it is at the wholesale level.

INFLATION RATE
The inflation rate is the percentage by which prices of goods and services rise beyond their average levels. It is the rate by which the purchasing power of the people in a particular geography has declined in a specified period. The rate of inflation may be calculated weekly, monthly or annually. However, it is always expressed as an annualized figure.

Inflation Rate: Indices

The inflation rate can be calculated for different price indices. For the national inflation rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is considered. This index measures the actual prices of goods and services needed by the common man. The inflation rate can also be measured by the following indices: Cost-of-living index (COLI): This is used to adjust income scales so that the real value of earnings remains the same. Producer price index (earlier Wholesale Price Index): This measures the average change in prices that domestic producers receive for their products. This index measures the growing pressure on producers due to changes in the costs of their raw materials. This pressure might get passed on to consumers, absorbed by profits or offset by a rise in productivity. Commodity price index: This measures the prices of a selected group of commodities. Core price index: This removes the volatile components (primarily food and oil) from broader indices, like the CPI. Short term changes in demand and supply conditions do not significantly affect such indices. Central banks use it to assess the need for adjusting the monetary policy.

INFLATION RATE:THE FORMULA

The equation to calculate the inflation rate is: Inflation Rate = (Po- P-1)* 100 / P-1, where Po = the present average price P-1 = the price that existed last year. The inflation rate is always stated as a percentage. Another way of calculating the inflation rate is to apply the log rule. The inflation rate is important, since it is subtracted from various economic rates in order to eliminate the impact of inflation. The real increase in wages is also counted by taking into account theprevailing inflation rate.

Current Inflation and Unemployment

According to an ILO report, the world unemployment rate is projected to reach 7.1% in 2009 if the sluggish economic performance continues. This is estimated to increase worldwide unemployment by 50 million. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 651,000 jobs were lost in February 2009 in the US alone. The IMF has projected world economic growth at 0.5% for 2009, a record low since World War II. However, given the constant efforts to ease credit strains by implementing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the world economy is expected to recover by 2010.

How does all this impact the growth?

The hike in repo rate and CRR seems to be an ongoing process. HDFC has predicted another 50-70 basis points hike in the repo rate during the coming months. A curb on credit expansion, could impact the investment demand of the corporate sector. Even though banking is a small part of the growth story, a 100-125 basis points increase in the lending rates could raise the cost of funds in the system considerably. So far, the consistent but moderate increases in lending rates have applied to there tail side of banking. Now they could affect the investment side. Once access to capital is restricted and recourse to external finance is limited, the expansion programme of several corporate could be put on hold or curtailed.

CONCLUSION
Inflation is a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of money. Variations on inflation include deflation, hyperinflation and stagflation. Two theories as to the cause of inflation are demandpull inflation and cost-push inflation. When there is unanticipated inflation, creditors lose, people on a fixed income lose, "menu costs" go up, uncertainty reduces spending and exporters aren't as competitive. Lack of inflation (or deflation) is not necessarily a good thing.

 Inflation is measured with a price index. The two main groups of price indexes that measure inflation are the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Indexes. Interest rates are decided in the U.S. by the Federal Reserve. Inflation plays a large role in the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates. In the long term, stocks are good protection against inflation. Inflation is a serious problem for fixed income investors. It's important to understand the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates. Inflation-indexed securities offer protection against inflation but offer low returns.