Negotiation in geopolitics &

diplomacy
- Matthieu Alfré -
 Agenda

• Introduction : Let’s review!

•1 NATO: an unstable alliance

•2 Diplomatic negotiation #1: Redefining your commitment within NATO

•3 Diplomatic negotiation #2: Dealing with NATO’s short-term crises

• Conclusion and next steps

- Matthieu Alfré -
What did we learn when we last saw each other?
 The agenda we will follow together

The key principles to our approach Four lessons to apply your new skills

•1 I am going to summarize some of the main Short agenda – February/March

world topics to give you insights
• Course 1: Introduction & fundamentals
•2 I will organize short negotiation workshops for • Course 2: Managing unstable alliances
you to sharpen your skills
• Course 3: Balancing power relations
•3 I will be available to answer your geopolitics- • Course 4: Broadening your horizons
related questions Grade based on active & relevant participation
The course success will depend on your active participation
Long agenda – February/March
Course taught Negotiation skill Main workshops

• Negotiation basics
Introduction & fundamentals • Approaching the US-China trade war
• First offers
• Setting oil prices in OPEC
• Manipulation

Managing unstable alliances • Representative • Managing NATO long-term imbalances

• Group negotiation • Dealing with NATO short-term crises

Balancing power relations • UNO as an imbalanced institution

• Power imbalances
• Tackling transversal issues within UNO

Broadening your horizons • Arms trade in geopolitics

• Emotions in negotiations
• Anticipating public stances
Grade based on active & relevant participation
 Many information sources can help you understand the basics of
geopolitics
1 • Focus on the international sections
Written press • Take both French and foreign newspapers
• Don’t forget to investigate local sources too

2 • TV shows are often focused on hot topics

Radio & TV shows especially with debates
• Radio shows can also provide substantial analyses

3 • Technical topics discussed by experts

Think tanks • Specialized insights on varied topics
• International think tanks are eye opening

4 • Can be a fun supplement to other researches

YouTube creators • Some original ideas to gather from times to times

My favorite sources are on the next slides!

To grasp geopolitics & diplomacy in 3 minutes per week

Many things happen in the world everyday NeoGeopo helps you get them in 3 minutes

•1 Main geopolitics facts analyzed each week

•2 Free + Indie + Factual + Prospective
•3 In French & in English
•4 In your mailbox Sunday afternoon
 To understand how the world works…

• An updated book every year • The vision on globalization and

continents
• +50 key news facts explained
• The best methodology to
• +50 maps and graphs create maps

• +250 MCQ to train • Main challenges explained

• Online news from January to May • +30 handmade & commented

maps
To go even further in your understanding…

• An agenda by challenges • An agenda by continents

• The methodology for the exams • The methodology for the exams

• 20 essays to understand the world • 20 essays to understand the world

• 8 brilliant copies from students • 10 brilliant copies from students

• Best maps accessible online • Best maps accessible online

 Agenda

• Introduction : Let’s review

•1 Approaching NATO: an unstable alliance

•2 Diplomatic negotiation #1: Managing NATO’s long-term imbalances

•3 Diplomatic negotiation #2: Dealing with NATO’s short-term crises

• Conclusion and next steps

- Matthieu Alfré -
Countries create cooperative organizations to enforce a mission

- Matthieu Alfré -
Europe became a geostrategic territory in the beginning of the
Cold War
“A shadow has fallen upon the scenes
so lately lighted by the Allied victory.
Nobody knows what Soviet Russia
and its Communist international
organisation intends to do in the
immediate future, or what are the
limits, if any, to their expansive and
proselytising tendencies”

Map of a divided Germany (1945) Winston Churchill – Fulton Speech (1946)

- Matthieu Alfré -
 NATO was created to secure an alliance block for Western
democracies
“In the conviction that the North
Atlantic treaty is a great advance
toward fulfillment of the
unconquerable will of the
people of the United States to
achieve a just and enduring
“The object of NATO is to keep
peace, I request the advice and
the Americans in, the Russians
consent of the Senate to its
out and the Germans down.”
ratification.”

Harry S. Truman Lord Ismay

- Matthieu Alfré -
NATO countries must stand united when a member State is under
attack

Article 5 of the 1949 NATO treaty Highlights

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or • Collective defense means that attacking one member is
more of them in Europe or North America shall be attacking all the members
considered an attack against them all and
consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack • Article 5 of the NATO treaty guarantees this principle
occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of
individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article • 9/11 was the first time when it was invoked
51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the
Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, • Collective defense measures taken in various occasions
individually and in concert with the other Parties, such even in the years 2010
action as it deems necessary, including the use of
armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the • Standing forces on active duty are ready to operate via
North Atlantic area.” bases and commands within member States

- Matthieu Alfré -
The alliance expanded to the point of being seen as a threat by
Russia

- Matthieu Alfré -
Today, NATO boasts extended deterrence and defense capacities

- Matthieu Alfré -
NATO conducts major security enforcement operations throughout
the world
KOSOVO AFGHANISTAN CYBERSPACE

NA civil war torn Serbia in Kosovo, a Balkan The USA were hit by the deadliest terrorist Cyberspace is an open territory where
region aiming for independence. NATO attacks on their land on 9/11/2001. NATO actors can wage conflicts against one
intervened in 1999 in a peacekeeping led the military operations against the another. NATO promotes cyberattacks and
operation called KFOR. Taliban insurgencies. cyberdefence operations.

- Matthieu Alfré -
Yet, NATO faces internal challenges like divisions over military
spending

- Matthieu Alfré -
NATO faces internal challenges like discrepancies in public opinion

- Matthieu Alfré -
 NATO faces internal challenges like a lack of geostrategic
alignment

“In the Syrian crisis, Turkey acted

without discussing with other NATO
members. It justified its position with
self-defense arguments. […] It is
dubious that the Turks would attack
the Kurds only for self-defense. […]
The Kurdish problem is less Turkey’s
issue than the USA’s. They decided to
withdraw their troops even if the
French were there.”

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Your NATO delegations to prepare our next workshops

Which key variables

to be negotiated in a
NATO meeting?

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Agenda

• Introduction : Let’s review

•1 Approaching NATO: an unstable alliance

•2 Diplomatic negotiation #1: Managing NATO’s long-term imbalances

•3 Diplomatic negotiation #2: Dealing with NATO’s short-term crises

• Conclusion and next steps

- Matthieu Alfré -
Review your courses: Preparing a negotiation

- Matthieu Alfré -
Review your courses: Principal-agent negotiations

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Managing NATO’s long-term imbalances
A NATO meeting is taking place. Representatives of 8 NATO delegations are discussing NATO’s next strategic step. Usual key variables will be
discussed in 3 rounds of negotiation. In round 1, after the USA, representatives will express their delegation’s preliminary speech in a 2-min
prepared speech. In round 2, representatives only will have a 1-min speech to convince others to change position. In round 3, representatives
will express and justify their delegation’s end position.

•1 Define and explain your delegation position on the following variables:

 Increased participation to the next NATO exercise: YES or NO
 Increased US military presence: YES or NO
 Long-term military spending : 1% or 2% or 3%

•2 Prepare your negotiation framework (goal, room for manœuvre, red line, target country, arguments)

•3 On the negotiation table, give a clear mandate and speech to your delegation representative

•4 On the back tables, try to influence your representative using all the necessary means!

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Agenda

• Introduction : Let’s review

•1 Approaching NATO: an unstable alliance

•2 Diplomatic negotiation #1: Redefining your commitment within NATO

•3 Diplomatic negotiation #2: Dealing with NATO’s short-term crises

• Conclusion and next steps

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Review your courses: inter-group negotiations

•1 Create your group position towards the negotiation

•2 Decide the processes to implement within your group

•3 Dig into the underlying general and specific facts towards the negotiation

•4 Distribute the responsibilities within the team

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Dealing with NATO’s short-term crises
NATO delegations realize that the Americans have taken a strong decision. Arguing that ISIS was defeated, they decided to withdraw their
ground troops in North Syria. The Turks can therefore impose a no-go zone along their border. The French have not been warned before the
American decision. European allies wonder what could happen from ISIS terrorists jailed by the Kurds. Gather to make a 2-min long statement.
In inter-group negotiations, determine the impact of this decision on your position.

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Agenda

• Introduction : Let’s review

•1 Approaching NATO: an unstable alliance

•2 Diplomatic negotiation #1: Redefining your commitment within NATO

•3 Diplomatic negotiation #2: Managing a security crisis

• Conclusion and next steps

- Matthieu Alfré -
 Conclusion and next steps

• In a changing and challenging world, unstable alliances form the basis of geopolitics

• NATO is a US-led security alliance made for the protection of its members

• You will have to identify the key points and the red lines for each negotiation

• You can create sub-alliances to affect the organizational balance

• For the next course, we will focus on topics that the UNO has to deal with (immigration, environment)