POPULATION

LESSON OBJECTIVES
By the end of the lesson, student should be able to
accurately define population.
Students should be able to know the natural
increase as component of population change with
reference to birth and death rates.
How birth and death rates change over time through
the proper understanding of the Demographic
Transition Model.
INTRODUCTION:
Man is believed to have lived on earth for about 5 million
years ago especially after the discovery of the first hominids
to have appeared on the continent of Africa around 5 million
years ago.
During most part of the period of early mankind the global
population was very small, reaching perhaps some 125,000
people about a million years ago.
Through civilization, people learnt to domesticate animals
and cultivate crops. The Neolithic Revolution contributed to
ushering in another phase of the world witnessing an
increase in population growth.
With this said there was a gradual experience in global increase in
population and this was due to natural increase. Natural Increase
simply means the difference between the birth rate and death rate.
The Neolithic period was as a matter of fact a period where there was
technological advancement in Egypt and this technological
advancement led to an increase in the CARRYING CAPACITY of the
land.
Demographers estimate that world population reached 500 million by
about 1650 and from that time, population has increased drastically.
Global population reached 7 billion in October 2011 and currently the
figure is projected to reach about 8 billion by November, 2022.
 RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Population growth rate in the LICs and HICs have

not been the same as the growth rate in the LICs are
always higher than the figures recorded in the HICs.
However, the HICs had their period of high
population growth in the 19th and 20th centuries
respectively while for the LICs and MICs high
population growth has occurred since 1950 after the
WW II.
20 MOST POPULOUS COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD
COMPONENT OF POPULATION CHANGE.

Population change can be a complex

phenomenon to understand and there are some
few key words or factors that we need to know.
They are known as the VITAL RATES.
Some of the key terminologies include the
following that are discussed below.
• Define the terms such as population, natural increase,
fertility rate, mortality rate, birth rate, infant mortality
rate etc.
• Population Terminologies:
• Population: refers to the total number of people living
in a particular geographical area at a particular period
of time.
• Population Census: it is the periodic counting of the
number of people living in a particular geographical
area at a particular time.
• Natural increase: When birth rates are higher than death
rates.
• Natural decrease: Where death rates are higher than birth
rates.
• Birth rates: The number of births per 1000 of population
per year.
• Fertility rate: The average number of children a female is
expected to have in their lifetime.
• Infant mortality: The number of deaths before the age of 1, per
1000 live births per year.
• Life expectancy: The average age that someone is expected to live
within a country. Generally, women tend to live a few years longer
than men.
• Population Density: The number of people living in a given area,
usually per km2.
• Population Pyramid: A population pyramid shows the age and sex
structure of the country. It is a type of graph that is divided into
males and females and then age groups.
• Young Dependents: The number or the percentage of the
population under the age of 16.
• Old Dependents: The number or the percentage of the population
over the age of 65.
• Economically Active: People between the ages of 16 and 65. This
is basically the working group.
• Dependency Ratio: The ratio between the number of dependents
(old and young) and the economically active.
• Population Distribution: This is how a population is spread out
around a country or an area.
• MICs – Middle Income Countries.
• LICs – Low Income Countries.
• NICs – Newly Industrialized Countries.
• HICs – High Income Countries.
• Net Migration: It is simply the permanent change of
residence of an individual or group of people. Net
migration is the balance between immigration and
emigration. If immigration exceeds emigration the
population will grow or increase and if emigration
exceeds immigration the population will reduce.
NB: The movement of people in and out of an area within a
country is known as in – migration and out – migration.

Population Change = (birth rate – death rate) ± migration.

FACTORS AFFECTING LEVELS OF FERTILITY.

In most countries, fertility exceeds mortality leading to

population growth. The highest fertility rates are found in
African countries such as Niger, Mali and Liberia. Some of
the lowest fertility rates are found in Central and Eastern
Europe like Germany, Belarus and Ukraine.
Fertility is somehow related to levels of economic
development but other factors are also linked in some way to
wealth and quality of life.
The factors affecting the fertility include the following.
1. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS – Demography simply means the number
of people found at a given place. Where the infant mortality is high, it is
usual for many children to die before reaching adult life. In such
societies, parents often have many children to compensate for these
expected death.
2. SOCIAL / CULTURAL / RELIGIOUS FACTORS – In some societies,
particularly in Africa, tradition demands high rates of reproduction.
Education, especially female literacy is the key to lower fertility because
with education comes the knowledge to control birth.
In some countries, religion plays a major role in determining the fertility
rate of the people especially among the Muslims and Roman Catholics. The
Roman Catholics and Muslims strongly oppose the use of contraceptives.
Within LICs, it is the poorest neighborhoods that have the highest fertility
due to lack of education and high infant mortality.
3. ECONOMIC FACTORS – In many LICs, children are seen as an
economic asset because of the work they do and also because of the
support they are expected to give to their parents in their old age.
There is often no compulsory schooling or laws restricting child
labor. In NICs and HICs, the opposite is what we see.
Employment laws and compulsory secondary schooling mean that
parents cant sent the children to work in the family business
abruptly.
Pensions schemes are very vibrant in the HICs and this makes
parents not to depend or rely on their children to support them in
their old age.
• 4. POLITICAL FACTORS – Governments
across the globe are coming up with some
policies that will control the rate of population
increase. A typical example is China. China
implemented the ‘One – Child’ policy and was
very successful in reducing fertility. Russia is
adopting policies to boost fertility in order to
combat a future where the population will age
and then decline in number.
 CASE STUDY: CHANGING FERTILITY
RATES. KERALA, SOUTH INDIA.

Although the population of India is growing in general, the rate of

growth in population in Kerala is slowing down. Kerala’s success
story is due to the policy introduced by the government of the
state in meeting the basic needs of the people, especially young
mothers and young women.
Compared to other parts of India, women have been treated
differently in Kerala for many years. Whereas some women
cannot own properties in most parts of India, the case is different
in Kerala as women can inherit and own land which gives them
some appreciable level of financial independence and power.
Another clear difference is the level of education.
While about half of Indian women cannot read and
write, 85% of women in Kerala are literate.
The government has invested so much in the health
sector and this has reduced infant mortality from 240%
in 1930 to 14% today.
This therefore means that if children have higher
chances of living, then there is no need for more
children.
Also in Kerala, the policy of trying to reduce the birth
rate by choice, instead of coercion is working.
 FACTOR KERALA INDIA UNITED
KINGDOM
Life expectancy 75 61 80
(women)
Infant mortality 14 70 6
(%)
Female Literacy 85 57 99
rate (%)
Percentage use of 64 48 72
contraceptives by
married women
Total fertility rate 1.8 3.2 1.7
(average number of
children per family)
THE FACTORS AFFECTING MORTALITY.

Mortality simply means the rate at which people die.

Like crude birth rate, crude death rate is generalized
measure of mortality and it is influenced by the age
structure of a population. For example the crude death
rate in UK is 9/1000 compared with 6/1000 in Brazil.
Yet life expectancy at birth in UK is 81 years compared
with 75 years in Brazil. Therefore it means that Brazil
has a much younger population than the UK but the
average quality of life is significantly higher in UK.
1. Poverty – Poverty is the most important leading factor that causes
high death rate. People in MICs and LICs are more likely to die
young than people in the HICs due to poverty.
2. Infant Mortality – Poor access to good and quality healthcare is also
a major cause for the high mortality rates globally especially in LICs.
The lack of hospitals and clinics means that people will have to rely
on traditional remedies when they get ill.
3. Economic Development – Mortality rates fall as a country gets
richer. Even a small increase in national wealth can lead to
improvements in clean water supply and sewage disposal
(sanitation). The use of simple soap can reduce the spread of disease.
Also as the country gets richer, the people tend to be educated and
they get to understand diseases and the causes of diseases.
4. An Ageing Population – In a country that has an increasing proportion of old
people, death rates tend to rise no matter how developed the country is and more
so man cannot live forever.
5. New Infectious Disease – In recent times there has been massive and rampant
record of new diseases in the world such as Ebola, Monkey Pox, SAS, Covid 19
etc. Nonetheless, there are some very common communicable disease such as
tuberculosis, cholera etc.
All these diseases have the potency of killing people and that contributes to the
mortality rate of a country. These diseases mentioned above are very common in
the LICs more than HICs. .
6. Injury – Related Deaths – This factor is very common
among the young population of a country and this kind of
death is in 3 categories.
a) Murders and war casualties – this is common in areas
where conflicts are common especially in places such as
Africa, Middle East and parts of Eastern Europe such as
Ukraine and Russia War etc.
b) Road Traffic accidents are increasingly important as more
of the global population have access to vehicles or motors.
c) Industrial Injuries – This is common in NICs where factory
jobs have increased but the laws governing the safety of the
place and workers are not properly enforced or weak.
 POPULATION STRUCTURE AND AGE / SEX
STRUCTURE DIAGRAMS.

Population structure is the number of males and females within different

age groups in the population. It divides the population into groups
depending on gender and age.
IMPORTANCE OF THE POPULATION STRUCTURE
1. This is useful because it allows a detailed analysis of a country’s
population.
2. It allows governments to plan ahead for the future needs of the
population.
3. The population structure also helps demographers to analyze the
changes that have occurred over time.
Data on population structure can be plotted as a graph
known as population pyramid. As a country develops, the
population structure changes as well.
Governments all over the world use the information to
decide on their spending priorities and the level a which
taxes need to be set. For example a large proportion of
young dependents might mean that money has to be spent
on new schools and on family planning to bring the birth
rate down.
A large working population would mean a greater portion
of the population would be required to pay taxes for
further development.
 POPULATION STRUCTURE – THE USE OF
INDICES.
Population structure, particularly the age – structure of the population can be measured by a
number of indices such as the ones discussed below;
1. Dependency Ratio – The dependency ratio shows the relationship between the active
working class or working population and the dependent population.
The formular for the dependency ratio is as follows;
x 100

Young Dependency ratio = x 100

Elderly Dependency ratio = x 100

Germany has a dependency ratio of 52, which
means that for every 100 people working, there
are 52 people depending on them. This is fairly
typical in HICs than LICs where the dependency
ratio is extremely high and an example is Nigeria.
Nigeria has a dependency ratio of 85, which
means of 100 people working, we have 85 people
depending on them.
2. The Support Ratio: The Support Ratio is the inverse of the dependency ratio
and is less frequently used.
The Support Ratio = x 100

3. The Juvenility Index : The Juvenil Index shows the proportion of younger
people in the population.
The Juvenil Index = x 100

4. The Old – Age Index: The Old – Age Index shows the proportion of elderly
people in a population.
The old – age Index = x 100
 POPULATION STRUCTURE – ISSUES RELATED
TO GENDER.
The Sex Ratio is the number of males per 100 females in
a population. In 2014, the global sex ratio at birth was
estimated at 107 boys to 100 girls and over the years male
births has consistently exceeded female births for a
combination of biological and social reasons. For
example a family may want to complete their family
cycle immediately at the birth of a boy than on a girl.
Over time, this natural imbalance tends to be reduced
because death rates for males are higher than for females.
 POPULATION STRUCTURE – COUNTRY
COMPARISONS.
In the LICs, MICs, NICs and HICs, there is a different but
distinctive population structures. Comparing age / sex diagrams
can illustrate these differences.
We shall look at the population structure of the following countries;
1. Burkina Faso
2. Brazil
3. USA
4. Japan
 1. POPULATION STRUCTURE OF
BURKINA FASO
Burkina Faso is an LICs and the age / sex diagram has
the concave pyramid shape and this is very typical of an
of an LIC. The wide base shows a high birth rate and
the sloping concave sides show that the death rate is
high in all age groups – the life expectancy is low.
The base of the pyramid shows that the infant mortality
rate is especially high as the reduction between the 0 –
4 and the 5 – 9 age groups is large.
There are some associated issues with the population
structure of Burkina Faso and these include;
 With so many people under 20, the population is
bound to continue rising for many years.
Will food production keep up with the growth in
population?
Will the economy grow fast enough to provide
enough jobs for those young people who survive
into their mid – teens?
2. POPULATION STRUCTURE IN BRAZIL.
The Brazilian Age / Sex diagram is typical of an NIC. The wide base shows that the
birth rate is still quite high and the sloping sides above age 30 shows that the death
rate was high.
It can be seen that the economy of Brazil is in stage 3 of the DTM and the birth rate
is expected to fall.
There are some associated issues with the population structure of Brazil and some
include;
1. Brazil is experiencing a situation where more people are getting jobs and this
will increase government revenue through taxation.
2. Although a lot of people are working, most of them are in the informal sector
and do not pay tax and this makes it difficult for government to provide more
jobs and housing.
3. Although the family size will probably fall, the number of families will continue
to increase, so the demand for housing will continue to rise.
3. POPULATION STRUCTURE OF JAPAN
The population structure of Japan has a top – heavy shape typical of HICs with an
ageing population. The narrow base shows a very low birth rate that has been
falling steadily over the last 30 years. Life expectancy is high and so the
percentage of old dependents is bigger than percentage of young dependents and
the working population is low.
This has implication for the provision of healthcare and other services for the old
dependents.
There are some associated problems and some include the following;
1. Due to low working population, taxes are very high in Japan.
2. The government has been adopting pro – natalist policies to
encourage birth rate but they have not been very successful.
3. Immigration has not been a solution to the problem of an
ageing population in Japan. This is because they believe that
immigration will put pressure on social services.
4. Instead of Japan investing in human capital, they have
invested heavily in robot technology, boosting industrial
productivity without the need for extra workers.
 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a graph which
shows the changes in a country’s birth rate, death rate and
total population over time. The idea of the DTM was based on
the experience of North –West Europe, the first part of the
world to undergo such changes as a result of the significant
industrial and agrarian advances that occurred during the 18th
and 19th Centuries.
The theory assumes that LICs and MICs will follow the same
path. The DTM was based on four major assumptions and
these are;
1. Modernization (Socio – Economic Progress) takes
the form of a transition from a traditional, peasant
society to an urban, industrialized economy.
2. Mortality (Death Rate) responds very quickly to
socio – economic progress.
3. Fertility (birth rate) takes longer to respond to these
changes.
4. During the period when fertility exceeds mortality,
the total population will grow.
 CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH STAGE
1. STAGE 1 – THE HIGH FLUCTUATING STAGE:
The crude birth and death rates are very high and fluctuating
due to the sporadic incidence of famine, disease and war.
In this stage infant mortality is high and life expectancy is
low with a high proportion of population under the age 15.
Society is pre – industrial, with most people living in rural
areas, dependent on subsistence agriculture.
There are no countries in the world who are currently in stage
1, only few isolated tribes in remote societies on earth such as
those in New Guinea, Amazon basin of Peru.
2. STAGE 2- THE EARLY EXPANDING STAGE:
During this stage, modernization leads to
improvement in medicine(eg.Vacination), Sanitation
(clean water and sewage treatment) and hygiene.
Infant mortality falls and life expectancy increases.
There is considerable rural – to – urban migration
during this stage.
The influx of labour into the cities stimulates
industrialization and economic growth which in
turn leads to more modernization.
3. STAGE 3 – THE LATE EXPANDING STAGE:
In the stage 3, the death rate stabilizes at a low level while the birth rate falls
due to improved standards of living, education of women and an increase use of
contraceptives.
Infant mortality is low
Society is industrialized and women marry later and often have a job or career
and this reduces fertility.
Birth rates are still higher than death rates so population keeps growing.
Countries in this stage have a very productive working population because most
of the people are young and can work. Therefore young dependents will be
lower than old dependents.
This is common in most NICs.
4. STAGE 4 – THE LOW FLUCTUATING STAGE:
In this stage both birth and death rates are low because
the society is assumed to have fully developed and
industrialized and can be regarded as an HIC.
Life expectancy continues to increase.
Birth rate mostly falls especially in times of an economic
downturn such as economic recession, high cost of living,
low employment etc. this makes people more careful or
pessimistic about the future and more so giving birth.
STAGE 5 – THE NATURAL DECREASE STAGE:
In this stage the country is seen to be in a post – industrial phase
where the country is really advanced with economic boom, hi – tech
industries and service industries.
The status of women is high due to careers and further reducing
fertility.
Death rate is also high because people who have lived for long begin
to die. Mortality exceeds fertility and the total population begins to
decline.
The government may now encourage immigration as a solution to a
dwindling workforce and this can sometimes push the country back to
stage 4.
The DTM is a theory or model which was used to
analyze population dynamics in countries and so
although it helpful, it may have its flaws as well. It was
this theory that helped countries like China to introduce
the one – child policy so that the country will grow
quickly into the stage 4.
We shall now look at the USEFULNESS and
CRITICISMS leveled against the DTM.
 USES AND CRITICISMS OF THE DTM
THE USEFULNESS OF THE DTM.
1. It is easy to understand
2. It is universal in concept – that is it can be applied to all countries
in the world.
3. It enables comparisons to be made between countries.
4. It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change
over time.
5. The timescale are flexible because it is the speed of how a country
modernizes that determines how a country goes through the stages.
 CRITICISMS OF THE DTM
1. The original model did not include stage 5. It was added by the rich countries
when they started to experience low fertility and ageing population.
2. It is Eurocentric and assumes all the countries will follow the European
sequence of socio – economic changes forgetting that religion can even affect
birth and death rate.
3. The DTM cannot predict exactly when a country will reach a certain stage or
how long it will take to pass through the stages.
4. It does not take into account some policies governments may put in place to
manage their population changes.
5. It does not take into account the impact of migration but only focuses on birth
and death rate.
6. The theory does not also acknowledge that sometimes wars and pandemic can
affect the population of a country.
THE DTM IN LICs AND MICs
1. They had higher birth rates in stages 1 & 2 than the European
countries did.
2. Some LICs started with a much larger population than others in
Europe. Example UK left stage 1 with a population of 10 million
and arrived in stage 4 with a population of 50 million compared to
China which left stage 1 with a population of 500 million and had
a population of 1000 million at the end of stage 2.
3. The relationship between population change and economic
development has been much more tenuous.
 ISSUES RELATED TO YOUTHFUL AND AGEING
POPULATION.
A youthful population is one with a high proportion of young
dependents. This is very typical of countries found in stages 2 or 3 of
the DTM.
A country experiences a reduction in death rate in stage 2 but the
birth rate stays high. A larger number of babies are born and many
more of them survive in stage 2, therefore this results in an increase
in the number of young people and because there are very few old
people, the proportion of young dependents increases.
Another cause of a youthful population is when there is a high level
of immigration. Most immigrants are between 20 – 40 ie. they are in
childbearing age group.
IMPACTS OF A YOUTHFUL POPULATION

1. Food supply will need to increase to feed all the extra, non – productive
population.
2. There is pressure on the health service as high birth rate means more
midwives are needed and young children need clinics for check ups and
vaccinations.
3. There may be shortages of kindergartens and schools.
4. There is pressure on government to provide social amenities which will mean
increase in taxation.
5. Increase in unemployment
6. This may lead to the introduction of anti – natalist policies.
CASE STUDY 1: YOUTHFUL POPULATION – UGANDA.
 Uganda is an LIC with a very young population of 50% known to be under 15 and only 2.5 % over 65.
 The birth rate is still high with 6 children per woman.
 In 2010 Uganda had 34 million people and it is expected to increase by 1 million by 2025 which will lead to
overpopulation. Overpopulation has posed a threat to Uganda in the area of health service, education, jobs etc.
HEALTH SERVICE
 With the increase in childbirth, there is limited midwives and maternity hospitals with 6000 women dying each year.
 The health service is also under serious pressure due to high HIV/AIDS rate with 1 million AIDS orphans in Uganda. The
situation may worsen since only 30% of the youth use condoms.
EDUCATION

 Only half of the children are in education and this puts pressure on the government to provide more schools. Education will
help reduce birth rate and HIV/ AIDS.
EMPLOYMENT
 In 2012, unemployment was 20 %. When the large numbers of children grow up, unemployment could rise, causing
poverty to increase leading to economic and social problems.
The government of Uganda has adopted the following policies to
address these challenges and some include the following;
1. The government has encouraged the use of contraceptives
through advertisement, education and provision of free condoms.
2. The government has built more hospitals and clinics as well as
the training and employment of more qualified health
professionals.
3. A policy called the ‘ABC’ has been introduced to reduce
HIV/AIDS.
4. The government has spent a lot of money to train more teachers
but 50% of the children do not go to school hence reducing their
future prospects.
 CASE STUDY 2: AGEING POPULATION: UK
UK is typically a strong HIC country and found in stage 5 of the DTM
with a major characteristic of low and slow falling birth rate. The slow
fall in birth rate is leading to an ageing population which will translate
into high death rate.
In 1939, UK’s birth rate had fallen drastically due to:
(i) Increased use of contraceptives.
(ii) More employment opportunities for women.
(iii)The rise in urban society that no longer saw the need in having large
numbers of children.
(iv) The growing perception of children as a drain on household finances.
The birth rate of UK has fluctuated between 13% and 18% since 1945, but the
recent 2014 census conducted showed a percentage of 12% low. More reliable and
readily available contraceptives means more effective birth control.
British society has become more and more urbanized and the costs of housing and
childbearing have sky rocketed and so women generally see careers as more
important than children.
However, other factors have also come to play such as the ones discussed below;
1. Gender roles have been redefined and women are increasingly expected to
have a career.
2. Marriage is less unpopular and unmarried couples living together are less likely
to have children than married counterparts.
3. Motherhood is delayed by women in order to help them build their careers and
this results in women delaying their first pregnancy.
4. Women often feel that their peers look down on them if they give up on their
careers to become house wives.
During the 1990s, deaths from non – communicable
diseases (NCDs) fell considerably as shown by the
following statistics:
1. Deaths from coronary heart disease fell by 36% among
men and 40% among women.
2. Lung cancer deaths fell by 28%.
3. The incidence of breast cancer in women fell by 24%.
4. The number of stroke victims fell by 30%.
All this means that the population was ageing.
 THE LINKS BETWEEN POPULATION AND
DEVELOPMENT
WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT?
Development is simply an increase in the total value of goods and
services produced by a country, which leads to an improvement in
the people’s welfare, quality of life and social well – being.
World wide there is a great disparity in development in the countries
globally. This is to say other countries are more developed than
others and this can be seen in the standard of living of the people.
Development occurs when there are improvements to the individual
factors that make life to be regarded as quality life.
For example development occurs in an LIC when:
1. The local food supply improves due to investment in
machinery and fertilizers.
2. The electricity grid or supply is extended from the
urban to rural areas.
3. A new road or railway improves the accessibility of a
remote province.
4. Levels of literacy improve throughout the country
5. Average incomes increase above the level of
inflation.
There has been much debate about the causes of development. Detailed
studies have shown that variations between countries are due to a variety
of factors including the following:
A. PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY
1. Landlocked countries have generally developed more slowly than
coastal ones.
2. Small island countries face considerable disadvantages in development.
3. Countries found in the tropics have grown more slowly than those in
temperate latitudes and this reflects in the poor health and unproductive
farming in the tropics.
4. A generous allocation of natural resources has stimulated economic
growth in a number of countries. This may however not be entirely the
case though especially in most LICs.
B. ECONOMIC POLICIES.
1. Opened economies that welcomed and encouraged foreign
investments have developed faster than closed economies.
2. Fast – growing countries tend to have high rates of saving and
low spending relative to GDP.
3. Good government or governance, law and order and lack of
corruption generally result in high rate of growth.
C. DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS.
The progress of a country is seen when the birth rate has fallen
significantly and this makes the government to prioritize and
ensure proper development.
In 1990, the Human Development Index (HDI) was devised by
the United Nations to show levels of development in countries.
The HDI contains four variables and these are:
1. Life expectancy at birth - This indicates the quality of
healthcare, the adequacy of the diet and the overall quality of
life.
2. Educational Provision – This is the adult literacy and the
average number of years spent at school.
3. Expected years of schooling for children of school – going
age.
4. Gross National Income (GNI) per person or the PPP – This
means a dollar will buy less in the USA than in India.
WHY IS THERE A LINK BETWEEN
DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE?
The easiest way to understand this is to look at the three (3) strands of
development used to produce the HDI.
1. INCREASING PURCHASING POWER AND A DECENT
STANDARD OF LIVING:
As people get richer, they regard children as an economic liability
rather than an asset. Children have to be clothed, fed and educated. A
large family requires a large house and if parents want to have a
comfortable life such as good car, house, clothes, television, holidays
etc., they have to channel their resources into taking care of the
children and so they will choose to have a smaller family size.
2. IMPROVEMENTS IN EDUCATIONAL PROVISION:
Improvements in education plays a vital role in reducing
fertility for a number of reasons including the following.
People who are better educated are more likely to
understand about family planning and methods of
contraceptives.
Educated women want to have a career as well as a family.
They marry later, wait longer until they start a family and
have fewer children.
Educated women are more likely to take control of their
lives and make their own decisions.
3. A LONG AND HEALTHY LIFE –

When the life expectancy of a group of people increases, it is because of

the low infant mortality rate recorded. However, it is a general
knowledge that when people tend to know that after birth there is a high
possibility and chances of the child surviving, they don’t have as many
children.
As countries develop, it makes governments to introduce laws that ban
child labor, enforcing compulsory education and giving out punitive
measures to parents who neglect or maltreat their children.
Also governments can adopt a pro – natalist policies if they feel it is
important to boost their population and this has the potential of altering
the link between population change and development.
 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RESOURCE
AND POPULATION.
There is no doubt that population is increasing rapidly
especially in the LICs and MICs and this has posed a great
challenge to governments in these countries to provide for
the basic needs of its people. The increase in population
has problems such as;
Increased pressure on the environment.
Increased risk of malnutrition and famine.
Increased demand for houses, education, healthcare, jobs
etc.
A resource is anything found in the environment that
man can depend on to meet his basic needs in life.
Some of these resources include air, clean water, food,
energy and shelter. Human beings also need
employment, healthcare, transport facilities, leisure
time etc.
Resources are used too much in recent times because of
population increase. The relationship between
population growth, resources and economic
development is known as the CONSUMPTION
TRIANGLE.
 THE LINK BETWEEN RESOURCES,
POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT

1. Resources are needed to support population growth and

economic development.
2. Population growth can stimulate economic development.
3. Population growth increases the demand for resources as
does economic development.
4. Economic development can lead to technological change
which can lead to the production of new, alternative
resources.
 RESOURCES

POPULATION ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Judging from the rate at which the resources of the
world are been utilized, it is important that governments
of the world look into the future on how they can
minimize or control the use of these resources for the
sake of future generations. This has led to what we now
call SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.

"Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of

the present, without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs."
THE IMPORTANCE OF FOOD SECURITY

Food Security simply means when all people at all times have
access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy
and active life. The total amount of food produced around the
world today is enough to provide everyone with a healthy diet
but the problem is that while some countries produce food
surplus or have enough money to buy it elsewhere, other
countries are in food deficit and lack the financial resources to
buy enough food abroad. There is a forecast of a looming
famine world wide.
There is huge geographical imbalance between food
production and food consumption, resulting in a lack of food
security in many countries. The three (3) main strands of food
security are;
1. Food Availability – Sufficient quantities of food available
on a consistent basis.
2. Food Access – Having sufficient resources to obtain
appropriate foods for a nutritious diet.
3. Food Use – Appropriate use based on knowledge of basic
nutrition and care, as well as adequate water and
sanitation.
If you look at the Food Security Risk index, it is
obvious that the greatest risk are in Africa, Middle
East and Asia. The current food crisis presents three
fundamental threats which are;
1. It is pushing more people into poverty.
2. It is eroding the development gains that have been
achieved in many countries in recent years.
3. It is presenting a strategic threat by endangering
political stability in some countries.
Nature of Adverse Effects of Adverse Influence
Influence
ECONOMIC  Demand for cereal grains has outstripped supply in recent times.
 Rising energy prices and agricultural production and transport
costs have pushed up cost all along the farm – to – market chain.
 Serious underinvestment in agriculture, technology in LICs,
hence low production.
ECOLOGICAL  Weather patterns have changed and this has affected key food –
exporting countries.
 Increase in soil degradation through various activities in both
HICs and LICs.
 Decline in biodiversity may impact on food production in the
future.

SOCIO - POLITICAL  The global agricultural production and trading system, built on
import tariffs and subsidies, creates great distortions, favoring
production in HICs and disadvantages producers in LICs.
 THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF FOOD
SHORTAGES.

About 800 million people in the world

suffer from hunger. The problem is mainly
concentrated in Africa but also affects a
number of Asian and Latin American
countries.
Food shortages can occur because of both
natural and human problems.
NATURAL FACTORS HUMAN FACTORS
1.Floods 1.Low Capital
2.Drought Investment
3.Soil Exhaustion 2.Poor Transport
4.Tropical Cyclones 3.Wars
5.Pests
6.Disease
 NATURAL CAUSES OF FOOD SHORTAGES
1. SOIL EXHAUSTION – Overcropping of the land led to
low crop yields because the crops had extracted almost all
the nutrients in the soil making cultivation of crops to yield
low harvest. This can lead to soil erosion and desertification.
2. DROUGHT – The long absence of rainfall led to crops and
animals dying which has led to food shortages.
3. FLOODS – Growing of rice for example on a large scale is
made possible in areas that are flood prone because of the
character of how rice is. However, sometimes floods can
lead to lead to loss of crop which is linked to food shortages.
4. TROPICAL CYCLONES – Tropical Cyclones are
very dangerous in coastal areas because when there are
strong winds on the high seas, they lead to the rise of
storm surges which push water to the coastal areas,
causing floods. This destroys crops and animals
cultivated and reared at the coast. This can lead to food
shortage.
5. PESTS – Pests and disease infestation of farms have
led to food shortages across the world, especially in
LICs. Locusts have attacked a lot of farms in the LICs
and that has led to food shortages.
 HUMAN CAUSES OF FOOD SHORTAGES
1. LOW CAPITAL INVESTMENT – Most countries especially in
the LICs do not have the requisite financial strength to invest
heavily in the agriculture sector to help boost crop production and
so this leads to food shortages. The vice versa is seen in the HICs.
2. POOR TRANSPORT – Farmers in remote areas cant get their
crops to the market even if the crops are in abundance. This has
led to food shortages.
3. WARS – Constant wars in LICs is one of the reasons for food
shortages because war do not allow people to grow crops and this
led to people becoming refugees instead of growing crops and
rearing animals.
 CONSEQUENCES OF FOOD SHORTAGES

1.UNDERNOURISHMENT
2.FAMINE
3.VISCIOUS CYCLE OF POVERTY
4.AID DEPENDENCY
 CASE STUDY – FOOD SHORTAGES IN
SWAZILAND.
Swaziland is an LIC facing food shortages because migrants
who went to neighboring South Africa to look for non
existent jobs now had to return back to Swaziland, and this
exacerbated the population figure causing or leading to food
shortages there.
In 2010, Swaziland’s GDP / person was just $4500.
The population of Swaziland has been affected by HIV /
AIDS where 26% of the people within the ages of 15 – 49
were affected.
 THE EXTENT OF THE FOOD PROBLEM
 A drought between 1991 – 1992 caused maize production to
seriously decline and this caused the government to be left at the
mercy of international food aid.
Between 2000 and 2010 up to 2/3 of the people of Swaziland were
still dependents of donor food aid.
FOOD CROPS OR INEDIBLE CASH CROPS?
Small Scale farmers were torn between subsistence farming or cash
crop farming.
Many small – scale farmers have decided to produce cotton and
sugar cane, rather than staple foods such as maize.
Sugar is Swaziland’s biggest industry and by 2012 about 93, 000
were employed in that industry.
 THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY AND
INNOVATION IN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
Technology has played a major role in resource development
especially relative to food production. Innovations and improvements
in food production were stimulated by the GREEN REVOLUTION.

THE GREEN REVOLUTION AND SUBSEQUENT CHANGES.

Since 1960 that the idea of Green Revolution was born, it has led to
increase in food production and supply across the globe although
population keeps growing. There has been some great changes in food
production and supply and some of the changes are discussed below:
a) New hybrid (ie HYV crops) seed varieties introduced have
increased crop production.
b) Irrigation systems has led to all year round food production.
c) Increase use of fertilizers to boost soil nutrients to increase
yield.
d) Increase use of herbicides, weedicides and pesticides to curb
crop failure.
e) Mechanization farming has increased food production because
of the use of farm implements.
f) Improvements in the transport sector by ensuring roads and
railways are built to aid in transporting of farm produce from
rural to urban areas.
 PROBLEMS THE GREEN REVOLUTION HAS
BROUGHT.
1. Some of the new crop varieties require expensive fertilizers to
grow properly and not all farmers can afford.
2. Increased use of agrochemicals (fertilizers and pesticides) has led
to water pollution and this has negatively affected the health of
people.
3. Mechanization has increased rural unemployment and encouraged
rural – urban migration, therefore putting pressure on towns and
cities.
4. Some of the HYVs can be low in nutrients, minerals or vitamins
hence reducing the quality of the crop.
 CONSTRAINTS IN SUSTAINING POPULATIONS.
An English Economist by name Thomas Malthus stated a firm
intellectual position by saying that population can grow at a faster rate
than the resources needed to support the population. He said that
when the size of the population exceeds the ability of the resources
(especially food) needed to support the population, death rates will
increase.
Death rates in traditional societies could rise rapidly from time to time
due to the following:
Poverty, Famine, Plague, Wars,
Natural Disasters, Unfair Trade Policies,
Political Instability and Corruption.
1. POVERTY – Most countries found in the Sub – Saharan Africa are
challenged with severe poverty where people lack money and capital
means that an individual cannot purchase the resources needed to sustain
life and a country cannot afford the developments of infrastructure that
would allow economic development.
2. FAMINE – Increase in population and overuse of resources such as soil
may lead to famine as the soil cannot support a bumper harvest due to
exhaustion of nutrients through overcultivation and also drought.
3. PLAGUE – Communicable and non – communicable diseases are some
of the challenges that make it problematic to sustaining population.
Although some of the diseases can be controlled, it comes at a cost as
mostly it is the weak, poor and vulnerable and mostly those in the LICs
and MICs who are mostly affected. Richer countries ( HICs ) are able to
control these diseases due to better healthcare systems as opposed to
those in most LICs and MICs.
4. WARS – Wars are one of the constraints in sustaining populations and this is
seen in the history of most countries such as Germany and Japan. For example
Germany invaded other countries due to the need for land to support the German
population’s need. Japan also embarked on expansion program around 1936 –
1942 due to the need to secure oil in other South East Asia to support the
expanding Japanese economy. This goes a long way to retard countries.
5. NATURAL DISASTERS – Natural disasters such as floods, droughts, tropical
storms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, among others are some of the natural
disasters that have the consequential potency of causing severe death, damage
and disruption.
6. UNFAIR TRADE POLICIES – LICs complain of that the trade barriers
(tariffs, quotas and regulations) imposed by HICs is hampering development this
is because LICs export raw materials (agric produce, minerals) and import
manufactured goods ( cars and machinery) whiles HICs export manufactured
goods (cars and machinery) and imports primary products and raw materials.
There is a general perception out there regarding trade and some are discussed
below;
1. The prices of primary products are relatively low and varies yearly.
2. The prices of manufactured goods are relatively higher and continues to rise
yearly.
3. LICs sell their minerals and cash crops abroad and this makes them to be at the
mercy of world prices which are controlled by the HICs.
4. Countries like Ghana and Kenya produce and export Cocoa and tea respectively
abroad to earn foreign exchange and this forms 80% and 52% of the GDP of
these countries. When prices on these products decrease, the whole of the
country’s economy will suffer massively.
5. HICs produce a wide variety of goods and do not suffer much if the price of any
goods drops.
6. HICs give subsidies to their farmers making it easier for them to sell their
produce both internally or internationally and this is a form of
PROTECTIONISM PROGRAM of HICs.
 1.OVERPOPULATION, 2.UNDERPOPULATION
AND 3. OPTIMUM POPULATION.
1. OVERPOPULATION- simply means the resources are not
enough to sustain the total population of a given area simply
because of higher population. Ones the population of an area is
more than what the total resources of the area can support, it
impedes development. Overpopulation is characterized by low
per capita income, high unemployment, underemployment and
outward migration.
2. UNDERPOPULATION- It simply means that the resources are
more than the total population of the area. It is characterized by
high per capita income, low unemployment and inward
migration.
3. OPTIMUM POPULATION – This is when the
population is equal to the available resources of an area
given the current level of technology. In optimum
population, technology plays a key role in development
as technology improves and this causes new resources to
become available and more people can be supported.
However, this concept is quite unsustainable because
there are instances where either population may increase
or resources may decrease or vice versa, and this idea of
optimum population is not permanent hence it becomes
what we call UNSTABLE EQUILIBRIUM.
 CARRYING CAPACITY
Carrying Capacity is the maximum number of people that can
be supported in a given area or region without damaging the
area to an unsustainable extent.
This concept is a very complex concept which is difficult to
understand or accept because one will ask that how will an area
accommodate people without the area been damaged to the
extent where it becomes unsustainable because resources will
have to be extracted to support the population.
Thus, it becomes hard to accept that variable X will not have a
consequence on variable Y.
THE MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL INCREASE.
Countries all over the world seek to ensure that prosperity and
economic success becomes the praise of its population and so
this causes governments to come up with population policies
designed to manage migration and population growth. This has
led to the implementation of Pro-natalist policies (encourage
population growth, immigration etc.), Anti – natalist policies
(slow down birthrate, discourage immigration) and a third
policy geared towards encouraging internal migration within a
country in order to reduce overpopulation and over-exploitation
or resources at one place. This leads to redistribution of the
population.
ANTI – NATALIST POLICIES
This is a policy which is geared towards stopping procreation. Anti –
natalists are of the strong believe that procreation is morally wrong. The pro
– natalists countries adopt this policy to check the rising number of people in
the country leading to overpopulation. This is common with countries found
at stage 2&3 of the DTM. Some of the policies of the anti – natalists include;
1. Education regarding family planning and the method of contraceptives.
2. Providing free contraceptives at clinics throughout the country.
3. Providing free sterilization for parents who feel their families are large.
4. Legalization of abortion.
5. Introducing laws to limit family sizes like Vietnam(2 child), China (1
child).
 PRO – NATALIST POLICIES
Pro – natalists are people who believe in procreation and the need to multiply through child
birth. This policy is adopted in countries that have a low or declining working population and
high number of old people. Pro – natalists try to encourage women to give birth to more
children and this is seen as far better than encouraging immigration. France is one country
strongly in support of this policy and some of their policies include;
1. French income tax is less when you have more children.
2. Very generous parental leave pay of 36 months.
3. Subsidized nursery care for children under the age of three, paid by government.
4. A grant of ₤ 800 every month for one year after giving birth.
5. The ‘large family card’ for families of three or more children and this gives big reduction
on train fares.
CASE STUDY: MANAGEMENT OF POPULATION CHANGE IN
CHINA.
In 1980 China was regarded as an LIC but the story has change today with one of the largest economies in the
world with high population of about 1.3 billion people. The Chinese economy was a peasant economy so the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) encouraged people to give birth in order for the people to increase production
to feed the economy and this led to a rise in figure of 540 million to 830 million. This led to severe famine which
caused a lot of deaths.
In 1979 the one – child policy was introduced and meant to last for 100 years and so couples who had one child
were given benefits like longer maternity leave, better housing, free healthcare and free education. To support the
policy, the government introduced some policies such as those discussed below;
1. A law to prevent people marrying before a certain age.
2. Free contraceptives and family planning advice.
3. Tell – tales in the factories who reported to the authorities on their fellow workers if they were pregnant.
4. The ‘Granny – Police’ system was to spy on couples in the areas where they lived.
5. Very late abortions to terminate second pregnancies.
6. Free Sterilization for couples who already had one child.
The one child policy was very unpopular especially in rural areas where
agriculture was the main economy and children were economic gain since
they were used as ready source of labor their families. This led to what is
termed as INFANTICIDES where female children born, were left to die just
because they needed a boy instead. Although this was a very inexplicable
policy and action to take, it brought some positive impact where the
population reduced drastically by reducing 400 million births in China.
Despite the perceived success of the one – child policy, the planners of
China are aware of some future troubles such as those discussed below;
1. Improved healthcare and better food supply would mean death rate is
going to decline.
2. Single children tend to become spoilt children.
3. There is more male than females in China and this makes finding wives
very problematic.