-Manisha Shinde

Decision makers are faced with increasingly stressful environments highly competitive, fastpaced, near real-time, overloaded with information, data distributed throughout the enterprise, and multinational in scope. The combination of the Internet enabling speed and access, and the maturation of artificial intelligence techniques, has led to sophisticated aids to support decision making under these risky and uncertain conditions. These aids have the potential to improve decision making by suggesting solutions that are better than those made by the human alone. They are increasingly available in diverse fields from medical diagnosis to traffic control to engineering applications.
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A Decision Support System (DSS) is an interactive computer-based system or subsystem intended to help decision makers use communications technologies, data, documents, knowledge and/or models to identify and solve problems, complete decision process tasks, and make decisions. Decision Support System is a general term for any computer application that enhances a person or groups ability to make decisions. Also, Decision Support Systems refers to an academic field of research that involves designing and studying Decision Support Systems in their context of use.
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A DSS is an interactive, flexible, and adaptable CBIS (computer based information system), specially developed for supporting the solution of a non-structured management problem for improved decision making. It utilizes data, it provides easy user interface, and it allows for the decision makers own insights/visions. DSS may utilize models, is built by an interactive process (frequently by end-users), supports all the phases of the decision making, and may include a knowledge component
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ 4

Decision support systems are systems that support decision making using flexible access to data and models for use by end users; the systems should provide flexible interfaces to support non-routine, unstructured decisions often involving uncertain decision situations and multiple objectives with provision for incorporating the decision makers individual style of decision making.
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Management is decision making The manager is a decision maker Organizations are filled with decision makers at different level. Management is considered as art: a talent acquired over years by trial-and-error. However decision making today is becoming more complicated: Technology / Information/Computers : increasing More alternative to choose Structural Complexity / Competition : increasing larger cost of error International markets / Consumerism : increasing more uncertainty about future Changes, Fluctuations : increasing need for quick decision
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Most management problems for which decisions are sought can be represented by three standard elements objectives, decision variables, and constraints. Objective Maximize profit Provide earliest entry into market Minimize employee discomfort/turnover Decision variables Determine what price to use Determine length of time tests should be run on a new product/service Determine the responsibilities to assign to each worker Constraints Cant charge below cost Test enough to meet minimum safety regulations Ensure responsibilities are at most shared by two workers
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Structured: situations where the procedures to follow when a decision is needed can be specified in advance Repetitive Standard solution methods exist Complete automation may be feasible Unstructured: decision situations where it is not possible to specify in advance most of the decision procedures to follow One-time No standard solutions Rely on judgment Automation is usually infeasible Semi-structured: decision procedures that can be pre specified, but not enough to lead to a definite recommended decision Some elements and/or phases of decision making process have repetitive elements
DSS most useful for repetitive aspects of semi-structured problems
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Increasing complexity of decisions Technology Information: Data, data everywhere, and not the time to think! Number and complexity of options Pace of change Increasing availability of computerized support Inexpensive high-powered computing Better software More efficient software development process Increasing usability of computers
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Fast computation so quick decision can be made improved communication by group decision makers at different locations by using web-based tools Enhance productivity of group members at different locations by using web-based tools thus saving travel cost and of staff support (e.g. legal analysts) by using software Anytime, anywhere support because of wireless technology Better decision quality as more data can be accessed, more alternatives are evaluated, forecasts can be improved, views of experts can be collected quickly Competitive Edge dss (intelligent systems) can empower people by allowing them to make decisions quickly even if they lack some knowledge cost reduction 10

1. Provide support in semi-structured and unstructured situations, includes human judgment and computerized information 2. Support for various managerial levels (strategic/tactical)

3. Support to individuals and groups

4. Support to interdependent and/or sequential decisions 5. Support all phases of the decision-making process 6. Support a variety of decision-making processes and styles
(more)
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ 11

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7. Are adaptive to changing conditions and flexible as users can add, delete, change basic elements 8. Have user friendly interfaces like GUI or Web based interfaces 9. Goal: improve effectiveness of decision making (accuracy, timeliness, quality) 10. The decision maker has control on the steps of decision-making process 11. End-users can build, modify simple systems 12. Utilizes models for analysis of decision making situations 13. Provides access to a variety of data sources, formats, and types like GIS, multimedia, etc 14. Can be integrated with other DSS and distributed using web technologies Decision makers can make better, more consistent decisions in a timely manner
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ 13

The key DSS characteristics and capabilities are as follows: 1. Support for decision makers in semistructured and unstructured problems. 2. Support managers at all levels. 3. Support individuals and groups. 4. Support for interdependent or sequential decisions. 5. Support intelligence, design, choice, and implementation. 6. Support variety of decision processes and styles. 7. DSS should be adaptable and flexible. 8. DSS should be interactive ease of use. 9. Effectiveness, but not efficiency. 10.Complete control by decision-makers. 11.Ease of development by end users. 12.Support modeling and analysis. 13.Data access. 14.Standalone, integration and Web-based

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(DSS In Action 1.5: Houston Minerals Case)

Initial risk analysis (management science) Model examination using experience, judgment, and intuition Initial model mathematically correct, but incomplete DSS provided very quick analysis DSS: flexible and responsive. Allows managerial intuition and judgment

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DSS is a problem-solving tool and is frequently used to address ad hoc and unexpected problems Different than MIS DSS evolve as they develop

Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

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MIS Focus on structured tasks and routine decisions Identifies information requirement Emphasis on data storage Indirect access to data Reliance on computer expert Emphasis is on efficiency

DSS Focus is on semi/unstructured tasks as managerial judgment required Establishes tools/ models used for decision process Emphasis on data manipulation Direct access to data Reliance on managerial judgment Emphasis is on effectiveness
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Management Information Systems

Decision support provided Information form and frequency Information format Information processing methodology Provide information about the performance of the organization Periodic, exception, demand, and push reports and responses Pre specified, fixed format

Decision Support Systems

Provide information and techniques to analyze specific problems Interactive inquiries and responses Ad hoc, flexible, and adaptable format

Information produced by Information produced by extraction and manipulation analytical modeling of of business data business data
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DBMS - System for storing and retrieving data and processing queries Data warehouse - Consolidated database, usually gathered from multiple primary sources, organized and optimized for reporting and analysis MIS - System to provide managers with summaries of decision-relevant information Expert system - computerized system that exhibits expert-like behavior in a given problem domain Decision aid - automated support to help users conform to some normative ideal of rational decision making DSS - provide automated support for any or all aspects of the decision making process EIS (Executive information system) - A kind of DSS specialized to the needs of top executives
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1. Data Management Subsystem (database) 2. Model Management Subsystem (model base) 3. Knowledge-based (Management) Subsystem (DSS software) 4. User Interface Subsystem (DSS software) 5. The User
(Figure 3.2)

Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

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DSS database Database management system Data directory Query facility (Figure 3.3)

Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

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The Data Management subsystem (Database) collects current or historical data from internal (operational data from functional areas op, hr, mktg, fin and future sales, machine maintenance scheduling plans using intranet) and external (market research data, government regulations tax rate schedules, national economic data using internet) sources dss do not create or update data but uses online organisational data so the decisions could be based on the actual conditions
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 First function of DBMS it stores, manipulates and query the database as directed by either the model management or the dialogue management using query facility Data directory is a catalog of all the data (data definitions, their source and their exact meaning) in a database Second function of DBMS it maintains an interface with data sources that are external to DSS i.e. enterprise data, external sources
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DSS In Focus 3.2: The Capabilities of DBMS in a DSS

Captures/extracts data for inclusion in a DSS database Updates (adds, deletes, edits, changes) data records and files Interrelates data from different sources Retrieves data from the database for queries and reports Provides comprehensive data security (protection from unauthorized access, recovery capabilities, etc.) Handles personal and unofficial data so that users can experiment with alternative solutions based on their own judgment Performs complex data manipulation tasks based on queries Tracks data use within the DSS Manages data through a data dictionary

Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

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Analog of the database management subsystem (Figure 3.4) Model base Model base management system Modeling language Model directory Model execution, integration, and command processor
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson, 6th edition Copyright 2001, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

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The Model Management Subsystem (Model base)

- an abstract representation that shows the relationships of a phenomenon - 3 types of models Behavioural model understanding the behaviour amongst the business variables. Decisions are made giving due regard to such behavioural relationships. E.g. trend analysis, forecasting, correlation, regression, statistical analysis. These models are used in process control, manufacturing, medicines, agriculture science. The behavioural analysis can be used to set the points for alert, alarm and action
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 Management Science model Developed on principles of management, accounting and economics E.g. Cost accounting, Capital Budgeting, etc Operations Research model Mathematical models as application of mathematical formulae for arriving at optimum solution Represent real life problems/situations in terms of variables and parameters expressed in algebraic equations E.g. Linear programming, ABC analysis, material requirement planning, etc
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Model Management System Strategic Models: Non routine

mergers, impact analysis, capital budgeting

Tactical Models: Allocation & Control

labor requirements, sales promotion planning

Operational Models: Routine-day-to-day

production scheduling, inventory control, quality control Analytical Models: SAS, SPSS, OR, data mining

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Model Base Management System (MBMS) software has following functions -

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The model directory is catalog of all the models and other software in the model base contains model definitions, its functions and capability Model execution is the process of controlling the actual running of the model Command processor receives the command from the dialogue management and delivers it to either model base management system or the model execution system

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The User Interface (Dialog) Subsystem Allows decision makers to easily access and manipulate the DSS Graphical user interfaces (GUI) Voice recognition and speech synthesis possible 3 sub systems The user interface sub system controls the appearance of the input screens and displays the results The dialog control subsystem maintains processing context with the user or uses objects like pull down menus, buttons, icons through GUI The request translator translates the user command into actions for the model mgmt or data mgmt into a format understandable by the user
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Group Decision Support System (GDSS)

GDSS is an interactive computer based system that facilitates the solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group Contains most of the elements of DSS plus software to provide effective support in group decisionmaking settings

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 In addition to DSS, GDSS must provide Anonymous/unknown inputs without identifying who gave it to enable group decision makers to concentrate on the merits of the input parallel communication to enable every group member to address issues or comments or suggestions simultaneously Automatic record keeping each comment entered into the PC by the group member for future review and analysis
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Database Model base Dialogue manager Communication capability Special software (also called GroupWare) E.g., Lotus Notes

people located around the world work on the same project, documents, and files, efficiently and at the same time

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Databases

Model base

GDSS processor

GDSS software

Access to the internet and corporate intranet, networks, and other computer system

Dialogue manager

External database access

External databases

Users

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high
Decision frequency low Close(same place) Distant(diff place)

Location of group members

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Decision Room
For decision makers located in the same geographic area or building Use of same/common computing devices, special software, networking capabilities, display equipment, and a session leader Combines face-to-face verbal interaction with technology-aided formalization

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Group members sit at their respective locations and use their desktop and LAN to interact with other members

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Characteristics Location of group members is distant in different cities and they come together through teleconferencing or video conferencing with prior planning for GDSS operations

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Group members are at geographically remote locations may be in different countries and they come together through long distance telecommunication network Decision frequency is high Virtual workgroups Groups of workers located around the world working on common problems via a GDSS

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Strategic-level Systems Serve the strategic level of the organisation ESS/EIS address unstructured decisions and create a generalised computing and communications environment, rather than providing any fixed application or specific capability. Such systems are not designed to solve specific problems, but to tackle a changing array of problems
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 ESS/EIS are designed to incorporate data about external events, such as new tax laws or competitors, and also draw summarised information from internal MIS and DSS ESS systems integrate, filter, compress, and track critical data, emphasising the reduction of time and effort required to obtain information useful to executive management ESS/EIS employ advanced graphics software to provide highly visual and easy-to-use representations of complex information and current trends

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 A specialized DSS that includes all the hardware, software, data, procedures, and people used to assist senior-level executives within the organization

Board of directors

President

Function area vice presidents Function area managers

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Support for defining vision, mission, objective of an organization Support for strategic management Help with situations with high degree of uncertainty Tailored to individual executives Easy to use Provides correct, timely, relevant, validated information Access to the external data/databases from many places Drill down capabilities (enables the user to break down data in details) Futures orientation (predictions, forecasting) Linked with value-added business processes
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Provides access to historical and latest global information Enables use of external data Handles ad hoc queries Incorporates graphics and text in the same display to provide better view It shows trends, ratios, deviations Highlights problem indicators and supports problem explanation with written interpretations Provides Management by Exception reports

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Facilitates the attainment of organisational objectives Facilitates better strategic planning and control Increases communication capability and quality Meets the needs of the executives in timeeffective and time-efficient manner Provides competitive advantage Improves the use of the strategic information resource that are at the disposal of the organisation for working out strategic and tactical decisions
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Executive Information System (EIS) assists in answering the following questions: What business should we be in? What are the competitors doing? What new activities would protect us from cyclical business swings? Which units should we sell to raise cash for acquisitions, further expansion?

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Derived from the research discipline of AI ES is a computer programme that represents and reasons with knowledge of some specialist subject with a view to solving problems or giving advice Can Explain their reasoning or suggested decisions Display intelligent behavior Draw conclusions from complex relationships Provide portable knowledge Expert system shell A collection of software packages and tools used to develop expert systems
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Knowledge base

Knowledge acquisition facility

Stores all relevant information, data, facts that describe the characteristics of a specific problem situation and rules that represent the deep expert knowledge to solve specific problems in particular domain Accumulation, integration, transfer and transformation of problem solving expertise from experts to a computer program

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Inference engine

Brain of ES, a computer program that seeks information and relationships from the knowledge base and provides answers, conclusions, predictions, interpretations and suggestions in the way a human expert would Explanation facility Trace responsibility for conclusions to their sources and explain the ES behavior by interactively answering questions like -

1) why was certain question was asked by the ES? 2) how was a certain conclusion reached? 3) why other alternatives were rejected?
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Explanation facility User User interface

Inference engine

Knowledge base

Knowledge base acquisition facility

Experts

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Domain expert

Knowledge user

The individual or group whose expertise and knowledge is captured for use in an expert system The individual or group who uses and benefits from the expert system
Someone trained or experienced in the design, development, implementation, and maintenance of an expert system
Schematic

Knowledge engineer

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Expert system

Knowledge engineer Domain expert Knowledge user

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Capturing of expertise Duplicating and transferring the expertise Saving the human experts time Saving on maintenance and updating of the knowledge base

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Ability to Explain their reasoning or suggested decisions Display Intelligent behaviour Draw conclusions from complex relationships Provide portable knowledge Not widely used or tested due to difficulty in use Limited to relatively narrow problems Inability to deal with Mixed knowledge Difficult to maintain
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Provide a high potential payoff or significantly reduced downside risk Capture and preserve irreplaceable human expertise Provide expertise needed at a number of locations at the same time or in a hostile/unfriendly environment that is dangerous to human health

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Provide expertise that is expensive or rare Develop a solution faster than human experts can Provide expertise needed for training and development to share the wisdom of human experts with a large number of people

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Not widely used or tested Limited to relatively narrow problems Cannot readily deal with mixed knowledge Possibility of error Cannot refine own knowledge base Difficult to maintain May have high development costs Raise legal and ethical concerns

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Artificial intelligence (AI) Computers with the ability to mimic or duplicate the functions of the human brain Artificial intelligence systems The people, procedures, hardware, software, data, and knowledge needed to develop computer systems and machines that demonstrate the characteristics of intelligence

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Intelligent behavior Learn from experience Apply knowledge acquired from experience Handle complex situations Solve problems when important information is missing Determine what is important React quickly and correctly to a new situation Understand visual images Process and manipulate symbols Be creative and imaginative Use heuristics
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Attributes

Ability to use sensors(eyes, ears, touch) High be creative and imaginative High learn from past experience High Be adaptive High Afford the cost of acquiring intelligence High Use a variety of information sources High Acquire large amount of external information High Make complex, series of calculations rapidly and accurately low Transfer information low

Natural Artificial Intelligence Intelligence

low low low low low high low High high

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 Perceptive system A system that approximates the way a human sees, hears, and feels objects Vision system Capture, store, and manipulate visual images and pictures Robotics Mechanical and computer devices that perform tedious tasks with high accuracy Expert system Stores knowledge and makes inferences
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 Learning system Computer changes how it functions or reacts to situations based on feedback Natural language processing Computers understand and react to statements and commands made in a natural language, such as English Neural network Computer system that can act like or simulate the functioning of the human Schematic brain
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Artificial intelligence

Vision systems Robotics

Learning systems Expert systems

Neural networks Natural language processing

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The branch of computer science concerned with making computers behave like humans. The term was coined in 1956 by John McCarthy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Artificial intelligence includes games playing: programming computers to play games such as chess and checkers expert systems : programming computers to make decisions in real-life situations (for example, some expert systems help doctors diagnose diseases based on symptoms) natural language : programming computers to understand natural human languages
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neural networks : Systems that simulate intelligence by attempting to reproduce the types of physical connections that occur in animal brains robotics : programming computers to see and hear and react to other sensory stimuli

Currently, no computers exhibit full artificial intelligence (that is, are able to simulate human behavior). The greatest advances have occurred in the field of games playing. The best computer chess programs are now capable of beating humans. In May, 1997, an IBM super-computer called Deep Blue defeated world chess champion Gary Kasparov in a chess match.
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In the area of robotics, computers are now widely used in assembly plants, but they are capable only of very limited tasks. Robots have great difficulty identifying objects based on appearance or feel, and they still can not move and handle objects gracefully. Natural-language processing offers the greatest potential rewards because it would allow people to interact with computers without needing any specialized knowledge. You could simply walk up to a
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computer and talk to it. Unfortunately, programming computers to understand natural languages has proved to be more difficult than originally thought. Some rudimentary translation systems that translate from one human language to another are in existence, but they are not nearly as good as human translators. There are also voice recognition systems that can convert spoken sounds into written words, but they do not understand what they are writing; they simply take dictation. Even these systems are quite limited -- you must speak slowly and distinctly.

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In the early 1980s, expert systems were believed to represent the future of artificial intelligence and of computers in general. To date, however, they have not lived up to expectations. Many expert systems help human experts in such fields as medicine and engineering, but they are very expensive to produce and are helpful only in special situations. Today, the hottest area of artificial intelligence is neural networks, which are proving successful in a number of disciplines such as voice recognition and natural-language processing.
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There are several programming languages that are known as AI languages because they are used almost exclusively for AI applications. The two most common are LISP and Prolog.

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