Position Paper: Food Security
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Despite advancements in science and international aid efforts, hunger continues to plague millions worldwide, with over a billion people suffering from food insecurity. This document discusses the paradox of food availability amid rising obesity rates and highlights the complexities of global food systems affected by population growth, climate change, and economic volatility. The Barilla Center for Food & Nutrition aims to address these challenges through multidisciplinary research and policy recommendations to improve access to food and promote sustainability.
![T 3.1 GloBal GoVernanCe in
PoliTiCS PlaY he most important and decisive factor for the future is the role institutions and
a funDaMenTal role policy makers can play in identifying the causes of poverty and malnutrition in the
in SearChinG for
SoluTionS To The
world and in finding solutions to these problems. This is even more relevant in view
of the way in which food is becoming - once again in the 21st century - a strategic superior- The fielD of fooD SeCuriTY:
iSSue of PoVerTY
anD MalnuTriTion
ity factor that is as important as energy and defense. Therefore, the notion of governance
has taken on an increasingly relevant role in the political agenda of national and interna-
MoDelS, GuiDelineS,
reCoMMenDaTionS ProPoSeD
in The WorlD
tional institutions.
BY SoMe keY inTernaTional
The term “governance” means the management of political affairs by one or more countries
at all levels (economic, political and administrative) in terms of effectiveness, responsibil-
ity, rule of law, political stability and wellbeing of the population. Today, governing the
problems besetting the world is the great challenge facing both countries and institutions. orGanizaTionS
non-hoMoGeneouS anD In this connection, it is important to stress that, in order to eradicate malnutrition and
unCoorDinaTeD PoliCY poverty, it is necessary to adopt a political management approach. This should be charac-
inTerVenTionS Do noT terized by a common vision, with complementary and unique goals and action plans. Non-
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ProDuCe effeCTiVe
homogeneous and uncoordinated policy interventions do not produce effective results, nor e, Heads of State and Government, [...] reiterate the right of all people
reSulTS, nor Do TheY
Food Security: Challenges and Outlook
Food Security: Challenges and Outlook
reDuCe MalnuTriTion
do they reduce malnutrition and poverty. These are the reasons that led Kofi Annan, the to have access to safe and nutritious food, in line with the right to
anD PoVerTY seventh United Nations Secretary General, to state that “good governance is perhaps the adequate nutrition and with the fundamental right of each and every
most crucial factor to eradicate poverty and to promote development.” person to be free from hunger.”1 This statement by the Heads of Government on the
occasion of the 1996 Rome World Food Summit is still considered today the fil rouge of
global governance in terms of access to food.
Even more significant is the recognition of the central role of nutrition as a funda-
mental human right, probably for its longstanding historical context. Art. 25 of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948, states that “each individual has
the right to an adequate standard of living for his and his family’s health and wellbeing,
50 including nutrition.” 51
This shows that Heads of State have always acknowledged the importance of access The heaDS of
to food but, in the current context of political and economic instability, this pervasive STaTe haVe alWaYS
phenomenon is running the risk of being downgraded to a minor issue. Consequently, aCknoWleDGeD The
iMPorTanCe of aCCeSS
it is extremely important for countries’ agendas to recognize that the 925 million mal-
To fooD
nourished people in the world need immediate help and that this can only be provided
through policies geared to future sustainability.
In fact, on the whole, management policies seem to have failed in the attempt to contain on The Whole,
the negative impact of the crisis on a global level. A case in point is the inability to man- ManaGeMenT PoliCieS
age, at the international level, the abrupt spikes in agricultural commodity prices, as SeeM To haVe faileD in The
aTTeMPT To ConTain The
happened in 2006-2008 and as is still happening.
neGaTiVe iMPaCT of The
Unfortunately, notwithstanding the innumerable public statements claiming that ac- CriSiS aT The GloBal leVel
cess to food is one of the most disquieting global challenges today, adequate policies to
contain and to drastically reduce this plight have not yet been identified. In fact, food
governance does not always give priority to the access to the natural, public and finan-
cial resources needed to allow people to adequately feed themselves and their families
(with dignity).
Considering the numerous subjects involved (countries, institutions, organizations
etc.), as well as the complex interactions among them, it is not possible to conduct a
detailed analysis of all the current positions and proposals here. In fact, the following
paragraphs only focus on the guidelines, the models and the positions of some of the
most important actors in the field of food security global governance and the statements
and the results of some of the most relevant and recent summits and international con-
ferences on this theme.
Willis D. Vaughn/National Geographic Image Collection However, it is important to recall the three universally recognized pillars of governance:](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/enfoodsecuritybcfn2011-110715042211-phpapp01/85/Position-Paper-Food-Security-27-320.jpg)
Position Paper: Food Security
- 2. www.barillacfn.com [email protected] Advisory Board Barbara Buchner, Claude Fischler, Mario Monti, John Reilly Gabriele Riccardi, Camillo Ricordi, Umberto Veronesi In collaboration with The European House-Ambrosetti Publishing and editorial coordination Codice Edizioni Art direction and layout adfarmandchicas Images National Geographic Image Collection Food Security: Challenges and Outlook (May 2011) Cover image: Lynn Johnson/National Geographic Image Collection
- 3. D ear Reader, notwithstanding the extraordinary advances in the field of science and technology, the launch of ambi- tious international aid programs and the commitments un- dertaken over the last few decades by the richest countries in the world, the scourge of hunger continues to ravage mil- lions of human beings every single day. People who do not have access to minimum quantities of food or to food with sufficient quality standards, which is necessary to live with dignity. People – men, women and children – who are still beset by hunger and poverty and who wage a hard battle to survive. There is an incredible paradox: on the one hand, over a billion people suffer from hunger; on the other, almost as many people are overweight or obese. This is a defeat for all of us. The defeat of reason, of the sense of humanity, of the ability to propose credible and ef- fective solutions. And this situation is to be interpreted in the light of a second paradox: there is evidence that today the global food system can produce sufficient calories to provide a healthy daily nutrition to the world population as a whole. This situation – briefly described in this paper with the help of data, evidence and specula- tions in order to capture the essence of the challenges facing us – is certainly a result of the enormous complexity of the food access theme and the many imbalances characterizing our time. However, it is not possible to find an exhaustive explanation for these phenomena with- out considering the progressive reduction which has taken place in the last fifteen years in the scope of the global and concerted actions designed to promote a more balanced access to food. In fact, once again we have been surprised by the recent severe food crises and by their terrible consequences. But the true and possibly decisive challenge for the destiny of mankind will occur in the next few decades. The issue of food access has many interconnected variables which are difficult to interpret: population growth, changing lifestyles and food consumption pat- terns on a global scale, urbanization, the progressive reduction of agricultural productivity rates, climate changes and environmental sustainability concerns, the increase in prices of raw materials and their incredible volatility, the need for better management of scarce re- sources, starting with water. All rapidly changing and increasingly unpredictable variables. There are no certainties or definitive answers to these problems yet. There are primarily three areas on which to focus our attention: the governance of the whole food production system, the search for new and higher productivity rates in the field of agriculture, and the correct functioning of food commodity markets. However, it is urgent to raise the general level of awareness and attention and to capitalize on the desire to solve and deal with these critical issues. If our new effort is able to attract even slightly more attention Steve Raymer/National Geographic Image Collection to this issue and to raise the awareness of its relevance, then we will achieve our goal. Enjoy the read! Guido Barilla
- 4. The vision of The Barilla CenTer for food & nuTriTion To offer a varieTy of highly sCienTifiC ConTriBuTions and BeCome a valuaBle serviCe To The insTiTuTions, The sCienTifiC CommuniTy, The media and Civil soCieTy over Time; a meeTing poinT for anyone who Cares aBouT food, The environmenT, susTainaBle developmenT and iTs impliCaTions upon people’s lives. Ed Kashi//National Geographic Image Collection
- 5. The Barilla CenTer for fooD & nuTriTion T he Barilla Center for Food & Nutrition (BCFN) is a center of multidisciplinary anal- Food Security: Challenges and Outlook ysis and proposals which aims to explore the major issues related to food and nutri- tion on a global scale. Created in 2009, the BCFN intends to listen to the demands emerging from society today by gathering experience and qualified expertise on a worldwide level and promoting a con- tinuous and open dialogue. The complexity of the phenomena under investigation has made it necessary to adopt a methodology that goes beyond the boundaries of different disciplines: hence, the break- down of the topics under study into four broad areas: Sustainable Growth for Food, Food for 6 Health, Food for All and Food for Culture. The areas of analysis involve science, the environment, culture and the economy; within these areas, the BCFN explores topics of interest, suggesting proposals to meet the food challenges of the future. In line with this approach, the activities of BCFN are guided by the Advisory Board, a body composed of experts from different but complementary sectors, which makes proposals, analyzes and develops the themes and then drafts concrete recommendations regarding them. One or more advisors were then individuated for each specific area: Barbara Buchner (ex- pert on energy, climate change and the environment) and John Reilly (economist) for the area Food for Sustainable Growth; Mario Monti (economist) for the area Food For All; Umber- to Veronesi (oncologist), Gabriele Riccardi (nutritionist) and Camillo Ricordi (immunolo- gist) for the area Food for Health; Claude Fischler (sociologist) for the area Food for Culture. In its first two years of activity, the BCFN created and divulged a number of scientific pub- lications. Driven by institutional deadlines and priorities found on the international eco- nomic and political agendas, in these first years of research it has reinforced its role as a col- lector and connector between science and research on the one hand, and policy decisions and other governmental actions on the other. The BCFN has also organized events which are open to civil society, including the Interna- tional Forum on Food & Nutrition, an important moment of confrontation with the greatest experts in the field, now in its second edition. The BCFN continues its path of analysis and sharing for the third year, making its content accessible to as many interlocutors as possible and acting as a reference point on issues of food and nutrition. In particular, in the Food for All area, the Barilla Centre for Food & Nutrition has so far investigated three main themes: the access to food, the limited availability of food and
- 6. agricultural resources, the emerging needs and the factors related to this problem, the defi- nition of a well-being index in order to provide clear indications to effectively guide indi- vidual and collective behaviours towards a higher and more objective well-being standard. This paper focuses on the first aspect: food accessibility challenges and future prospects. In fact, the BCFN wants to start a line of research with the aim to reflect upon the ways in which it is possible to avoid the food crises of the last few years and to promote a better gov- ernance of the food and agricultural system on a global scale. The goal is to reach a more eq- uitable distribution of food and to improve social well-being, health and the environment. STuDY areaS fooD for fooD for CulTure SuSTainaBle GroWTh fooD for healTh fooD for all Gina Martin//National Geographic Image Collection
- 7. inDeX executive Summary 14 4. natural resources and climate change 65 4.1 Natural resources and food production 66 1. The current global food crisis 21 4.1.1 Risks related to shrinking croplands and land use competition 67 1.1 The scenario 22 4.1.2. Biofuels: an opportunity or a threat? 70 1.2 The scope and medium-long term food security scenario: 4.1.3. Land degradation 73 an interpretative model 26 4.1.4. Neo-colonialism: land grabbing 75 1.2.1 The economy and food security 26 4.2 Climate change, natural disasters and food security 76 1.2.2 Politics and food security 27 4.2.1. Availability: effects of climate change on agricultural production 78 1.2.3 The environment and food security 28 4.2.2. Impact of climate change and of natural disasters 1.2.4 Social variables and food security 28 on food availability and stability 79 4.2.3. Impact of climate change on food accessibility 81 2. economic variables and the price of food 31 4.2.4. Impact of climate change on food quality 81 2.1 The dynamics of prices in the food commodities market 32 Box The global water crisis 82 Box The 2008 food crisis 33 2.2 The key factors in determining the prices of food commodities 39 5. access to food and its social dimension 85 2.2.1 Food Demand 40 5.1 Food accessibility and health 87 2.2.2 Food Supply 44 Box The role of women in the agricultural sector: how to improve access to food? 89 3. Global governance and international politics 49 5.2 Food access and population trends 97 3.1 Global governance in the field of food security: models, guidelines, 5.3 Food accessibility and social conflicts 99 recommendations proposed by some key international organisations 51 Box Geopolitics of the global food crisis: relevant variables 52 6. recommendations: areas of intervention 103 3.1.1 The twin track approach and the right to food in the context 6.1 Dimensions and causes of the problem 104 of food security global governance: the FAO’s position and proposals 54 6.2 New challenges ahead 107 3.1.2 The decisions adopted by the Committee on World Food Security 6.3 Areas of intervention 108 (CFS) – 36th edition 54 6.3.1 Strengthen the mechanisms of global governance 109 3.1.3 The food security action plan launched by the G20 in Seoul 56 6.3.2 Promote economic development and achieve increases 3.1.4 Guidelines proposed during the 2010 United Nations Private in agricultural productivity 109 Sector Forum on the Millennium Development Goals 57 6.3.3 Change the food production chain in order to manage 3.1.5 Non-distortive measures to support agriculture: constantly growing price volatility and ensure the existence of safety nets 110 the proposals of the High Level Expert Forum 58 6.3.4 Managing eating habits 111 3.1.6 Agricultural policies and food crises in Africa: the point of view of farmers’ organizations and of the African Network on the Right to Food 58 notes 112 3.2 The instruments to optimize governance actions Bibliography 117 in the field of food security 60 3.3 Conclusive considerations: challenges and possible responses 63
- 8. William Albert Allard/National Geographic Image Collection Challenges and ouTlook food seCuriTy:
- 9. eXeCuTiVe SuMMarY directly resulted in the overall deterioration of food security in many poor and emerg- ing areas. Then, this already ailing context was hit by the food price crisis which began in 2008 and is still going on. As shown by many statistical sources (including the FAO Food Price Index), food prices oVer The laST have significantly increased in the last few years, but they have also been characterized feW YearS, fooD by growing volatility. CoMMoDiTY PriCeS haVe inCreaSeD, The public measures adopted to counteract this crisis have shown the intrinsic limita- anD So haS Their tions of the current regulated markets, both in terms of efficiency and transparency. VolaTiliTY For this reason, too, the rapid increase in food prices has made the crisis particularly difficult to manage, with tragic consequences for the weakest segments of the popula- tion in the poorest countries. Food pricing is not only inherent to the functioning of the market; it is important to fooD PriCinG iS consider that it is based on several complex and interrelated factors. The reason for its BaSeD on SeVeral imbalance is to be found in the demand for and supply of agricultural products. In ad- CoMPleX anD inTerrelaTeD 1. The global food crisis today dition, there are global macroeconomic factors such as population growth, the rampant faCTorS Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook growth of countries such as India and China and the increase in their demand for food, a in 2010, The nuMBer ccording to recent FAO estimates, today there are about 925 million people who the entrance of once-excluded segments of the population into the consumer market, of MalnouriSheD suffer from hunger in the world. In 2010, this number dropped slightly by 98 and oil price trends, as well as progressive changes in the climate. PeoPle in The WorlD million people, with respect to the past, representing a very positive trend. This Other market distortions are cyclical: the financialization of agricultural commodities, aMounTeD To aBouT is the result of a more favorable global economic situation and of the reduction of food the considerable increase in the demand for agricultural products for the production of 925 Million biofuels – which is bound to become a structural and permanent issue – and on-going prices vs. the 2008 peaks. In evaluating the situation over a longer time scale, it is not possible to disregard the major deterioration of the global scenario which has occurred protectionist policies implemented by many governments. over the last fifteen years. Out of a population of about 6.9 billion people, those who In sum, the causes of agricultural price volatility are to be found in the factors which suffer from hunger account for 13.4%. have an impact on the supply and demand of food and which have a common denomi- 14 The MoST affeCTeD It is well known that the most affected populations, that is 98% of the total, live in nator: i.e., the many unresolved issues in the distribution mechanisms of income, food, 15 PoPulaTionS are in developing countries and that the prospects in terms of food access are not reassuring. and natural and energy resources. DeVeloPinG CounTrieS In fact, considering that in 2050 there will be an additional 2.2 billion people to feed, the current situation is bound to deteriorate unless significant corrective actions are adopted at the international level. 3. Global governance and international policies In light of this data, the issue of access to food is to be analyzed from two different perspectives: on the one hand, there is the need to make food available for a growing Hunger and malnutrition can be eradicated only by adopting systemic, complementary GoVernanCe PoliCieS population, especially in developing regions; on the other, it is crucial to ensure the and consistent policy actions. In fact, non-homogeneous and uncoordinated public SeeM To haVe faileD quality and safety of the food that is produced and distributed. interventions set the stage for the persistence of malnutrition and poverty. To iMProVe aCCeSS To The policies adopted in the last decade – after the slow but continuous progress of the fooD In order to understand the complexity of this issue, a multidisciplinary approach is required to deal with the many facets of this phenomenon at the economic, political, mid- 1990s – have clearly failed to improve access to food. environmental and social levels. In this connection, the Heads of State have always recognized the relevance of food access. But in the present international political and economic situation, this theme runs the 2. Price trends on the food commodity market risk of being downgraded to a minor issue. And so there is a question of priority: it is crucial for the agenda of the most developed nations to acknowledge that the 925 The rooT The root of hunger is poverty; in order to eradicate it, equitable and sustainable devel- million malnourished people in the world urgently need support and that this can only of hunGer opment tools have to be developed, in the field of agriculture, in particular. It has been be provided through effective policies in view of future sustainability. iS PoVerTY estimated that 75% of people below the poverty line live in rural communities and In order to respond to the weak and insufficient food security governance mechanisms, The PriMarY SeCTor, have small farms. This explains why a 1% growth in GDP generated by the agricultural the last international summits have proposed a response based on three pillars: in ParTiCular, iS onCe sector is much more effective in reducing hunger and poverty with respect to the same - Investing in food aid and food security nets to the benefit of the most vulnerable aGain BeCoMinG The CenTral iSSue of amount of growth generated by the manufacturing or tertiary sector. segments of the population; The inTernaTional The reduction in the resources allocated by Western countries to aid programs and to - Increasing investments in agriculture and development policies; PoliTiCal aGenDa developing countries in the last decade and the mixed results obtained by the develop- - Adopting more balanced commercial policies between developing and developed ment policies implemented by international agencies and organizations have almost countries.
- 10. The primary sector, in particular, is once again becoming the central issue of There iS a Clear the international political agenda and is still considered essential to achieving the neeD To finD a Millennium Development Goals. TraDe-off BeTWeen eConoMiC GroWTh, There are at least six relevant variables in the domain of food security which today – enVironMenTal and even more so in the future – will have an impact on the international geopolitical ProTeCTion anD balance of forces: emerging countries claiming a greater geostrategic role; the increase fooD SeCuriTY anD in import duties and non-tariff barriers; subsidies to the national agricultural sector; BeTWeen DiVerGinG climate changes; oil price patterns and, more in general, the major global energy loCal, naTional challenges; the development of the biofuel market and the land grab phenomenon. anD inTernaTional inTereSTS The international political system will have to address different and extremely difficult challenges characterized by a common trait: the need to find a trade-off between economic growth, environmental protection and food security and between diverging local, national and international interests Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 4. natural resources and climate change Natural resources are essential for food production, rural development and sustainable naTural reSourCeS growth, as well as for the wellbeing of the populations. are eSSenTial for fooD The major on-going structural changes require greater attention to the systematic man- ProDuCTion, rural DeVeloPMenT anD agement of natural resources. In fact, there is mounting pressure on natural resources SuSTainaBle GroWTh in different parts of the world, and there is growing concern as to how to optimize and protect them and how to contain the negative effects of economic growth. Competi- tion for the exploitation and hoarding of scarce and unequally distributed resources generates conflicts, violence and the impoverishment of this shared natural heritage. 17 This situation may become exacerbated by changing crop requirements due to climate change, to extreme weather conditions and to scarce water supply. Climate change, in particular, will have a complex impact on agriculture and on its CliMaTe ChanGe Will haVe ability to produce food. There will be direct effects on the biophysical processes and a CoMPleX iMPaCT on on the agricultural and ecological conditions of farming, and indirect ones on growth, aGriCulTure anD on iTS aBiliTY To income distribution and on the demand for agricultural produce. ProDuCe fooD In addition, it is important to consider that, in the first half of this century, the global demand for food, fodder and fibers is estimated to almost double, while agricultural products are estimated to be increasingly used not as food but for the production of bio- fuels. Farmers will be forced to adapt to climate change and to respect natural habitats and, thus, they will have to compete with urban dwellers for land and water resources. Thomas J. Abercrombie/National Geographic Image Collection Moreover, arable land is expected to become drier and degraded, and this will repre- sent a major challenge for the agricultural sector, which will be required to produce a higher amount of food on smaller and smaller plots. Agricultural productivity has already dropped in some areas of the Earth because of increasingly difficult environmental conditions, such as drier soils, dwindling water resources, etc. This has led several governments to find alternative and unconventional approaches to produce the necessary quantity of food to meet their requirements, re- sulting in the so-called land grabbing phenomenon, defined by the FAO Director Gen- eral, Jacques Diouf, as a “form of neo-colonialism.”
- 11. 5. Society: access to food in its social dimension food production system will have to be redesigned and regulated in view of greater ac- The Whole fooD cessibility, sustainability and nutritional quality, also by creating common venues and ProDuCTion SYSTeM forums to discuss and analyze food security issues. Will haVe To Be The relaTionShiP The social aspects of food accessibility can be generally found in three main domains: reDeSiGneD BeTWeen aCCeSS To human health, population trends, and the social and political dimension (social con- fooD anD healTh iS flicts and migratory flows). 2 Promote economic development and increase agricultural productivity. It is necessary iT iS neCeSSarY To MainlY releVanT for to identify and implement sustainable development approaches, so as to reach food iDenTifY anD iMPleMenT The relationship between access to food and health is mainly relevant for developing DeVeloPinG CounTrieS self-sufficiency in developing countries in order to fill the current gap in terms of kno- SuSTainaBle DeVeloPMenT countries, in light of the chronic and/or acute conditions of malnutrition and hunger whow, by transferring scientific knowledge and best agricultural practices. aPProaCheS BY ProMoTinG in these social and economic contexts. SuPPorT MeaSureS In fact, hunger and malnutrition have an impact on the immune system of people and In addition, by adopting adequate incentive/disincentive policies and measures, it will DeSiGneD To aChieVe fooD on their predisposition to severe and prolonged diseases. This relationship is strength- be possible to maintain and to develop “local production-distribution-consumption sys- SelfSuffiCienCY ened by other factors associated with malnutrition, such as poor hygiene and sanita- tems” of food and agricultural products, thus preserving quality and biosustainable tion, and limited access to drinking water and to basic drugs. productions. Moreover, there are other economic and social conditions which exacerbate the link between disease and malnutrition, such as the inability to work, social and economic 3 Adjust the food production system to manage price volatility – which is constantly iT iS neCeSSarY To aDjuST growing – and provide safety nets. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and select the The fooD ProDuCTion SYSTeM marginalization and inadequate knowledge about nutrition – which impairs the ability Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook best practices at the international, national and local level in order to create stocks So aS To ManaGe PriCe of mothers to care for their children. All this will have an impact on future generations. VolaTiliTY anD To enSure The As already mentioned, the growth in the world’s population, especially in developing of food and of raw materials, defining the costs, the timing and the role of an over- eXiSTenCe of SafeTY neTS countries, has been, and still is, a major challenge for the global food and agricultural all global “insurance” system. In addition, a new regulatory framework is needed for sector, in that it generates an exponential growth in the demand for food that has to be the food commodity market so as to enhance the not merely economic value of these met. It is also necessary to recall the on-going and significant process of urbanization traded commodities and coordinate trade policies at the international level, promoting – which will continue in the future – with a progressive flight from rural areas and a access to the markets and the qualitative growth of products coming from developing population boom in urban areas, in the developing world, in particular. countries. SoMe Major ConfliCTS/ As to the social and political dimension of this problem, international experts agree that 4 Manage dietary habits. The spread of highly imbalanced dietary habits, with increas- a CoorDinaTeD aCTion iS CriTiCal iSSueS for some major conflicts/critical issues for food security are related (directly or indirectly) 18 fooD SeCuriTY are ing consumption of animal-derived products and the “westernization” of consumption neeDeD To ManaGe anD 19 to the availability of food and of natural resources: relaTeD To The models among growing segments of the population, require actions and guidelines to GuiDe DieTarY haBiTS - social tensions due to the access to and the control of agricultural resources; aVailaBiliTY of fooD govern these styles. This is becoming a decisive economic policy and a sustainable de- anD of naTural - migration flows due to very bad living conditions (malnutrition and lack of water), velopment variable for the world population. reSourCeS which in some cases are exacerbated by climate change; - political and social instability and misgovernment in response to the growing needs of populations; - pressures on international governance due to increasing imbalances between devel- oped and developing nations. In this connection, it is important to stress that social conflicts – especially those linked to the control of natural and agricultural resources – often undermine the future growth and the economic and social potential of countries. In the future, there may be relevant risks related to the deterioration in the availability and security of food and agricultural products – exacerbated by the current climate changes – which may significantly increase social conflicts, especially in developing re- gions, where scarce food and water resources multiply latent and still unsolved ethnic, religious and economic tensions. 6. recommendations: areas of intervention In light of the situation described above – which is going to be analyzed in greater depth in this paper – there are four major recommendations to put forward: 1 Strengthen the global governance mechanisms. It is essential to restore the central role that food plays on the international political and economic agenda. The whole
- 12. Lynn Johnson/National Geographic Image Collection 20 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook food Crisis 1. The CurrenT gloBal Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 21
- 13. 1.1 The SCenario figure 1.2. number of starving people in some regions of the world (millions of people) 588 600 578 555 532 498 500 400 300 T in 2010 The nuMBer he analysis of the available data clearly shows how severe the food security issue 239 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook of unDernouriSheD has become in the world in terms of food availability and accessibility for people PeoPle in The WorlD 202 201 and populations. 200 187 aMounTeD To aBouT 165 In 2010, the overall number of malnourished people amounted to about 925 million. 925 Million An extremely positive trend is the reduction in the total number of these people by 98 million, that is 9.6%, with respect to the past. This was made possible by a more favora- 100 ble economic situation on a global scale and by the reduction in food prices vs. the peaks 54 53 51 47 53 in 2008. 30 32 32 37 20 13.4% of The WorlD Notwithstanding this positive trend, it is important to evaluate the whole picture, tak- PoPulaTion iS ing account of the significant deterioration which occurred over the last 15 years at the 0 22 MalnouriSheD global level. In fact, the data shows an emergency situation for about one-seventh of the asia sub-saharan africa latin america near east, north africa 23 world population. Out of a population of about 6.9 billion people,1 13.4%2 is malnour- ished. 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010e latin america 5,7% figure 1.1. number of malnourished people in the world (millions of people) near east, north africa 4,0% developed Countries 2,1% 1050 1023 sub-saharan africa 25,8% 1000 950 915 925 900 878 853 847 850 843 833 787 800 750 s s asia 62,5% 1 1 2 7 2 7 08 2010e -7 -8 -9 -9 -0 -0 20 09 10 69 79 90 95 00 05 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 source: fao, 2011 (the data reported for 2009 and 2010 are estimated values). source: fao, 20113 (the data reported for 2010 are estimates).
- 14. Moreover, in late 2010 and early 2011, the prices of some major commodities have picked up A closer look at developing countries shows that the region with the highest number aSia iS The reGion WiTh again, reaching and exceeding the levels of 2008. of malnourished people in the world is Asia. In fact, in the Asian continent, as many as The hiGheST nuMBer of This shows that there may be an actual increase in the number of hungry people in develop- 554.5 million people6 suffered from hunger in the 2005-2007 period, more than twice MalnouriSheD PeoPle in The WorlD ing countries. Unless this situation is quickly overcome, in a few months there may be an as many as in Sub-Saharan Africa (201.2 million people). In Latin America, instead, this additional 64 million malnourished people in the world.4 Therefore, in the medium and long number was 47 million, while in the Near East and in North Africa it was 32.4 mil- term, a deterioration of the overall picture is expected, with a further acceleration due to the lion. Moreover, it may be interesting to consider that two-thirds of these people in the economic and food crises of 2008-2009. world are concentrated in seven countries: Bangladesh, China, the Democratic Republic The current situation shows that there is a major gap with respect to the figures of 1996, the of Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia and Pakistan. More than 40% of them live in China year when world leaders committed themselves to reducing and then eradicating hunger in and in India. the world. This optimism was justified by the positive results obtained in the first half of the The graphs indicate that the trends of the last 15 years are very different. In Asia, the ‘90s by the aid programs managed by the FAO World Food Summit. trend is slightly downwards; in fact, it has been calculated that the number of malnour- DeVeloPinG CounTrieS Developing countries have the highest number of hungry people. According to the 2005- ished people in Asia dropped by 5.7% (about 33 million people) in the 1990-2007 period. haVe The hiGheST 20075 findings, the number of malnourished people in the developing world amounted to The same happened in Latin America (-7.2 million people, equal to -13.3%). Instead, the nuMBer of hunGrY about 835 million, which means that, in 2007, 98% of malnourished individuals lived in these opposite occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the North Africa and Near East regions, PeoPle areas of the world. In 2010, in these countries, 16% of the population was starving. Almost where the number of starving individuals grew by 36.3 million (+22%) and by 12.8 mil- Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook one person out of five. lion (+65.3%), respectively. Unlike developing countries, the developed world had a limited number of malnourished The nuMBer of people between 2005 and 2007; that is, 12.3 million individuals.7 Moreover, this trend MalnouriSheD PerSonS improved in the period between 1990 and 2007 thanks to a series of targeted measures in The DeVeloPeD CounTrieS inCreaSeD adopted by the governments. These were mainly social and economic assistance measures BY 54% in The within the different national welfare systems. However, it is important to stress that this 2007-2010 PerioD number increased by 54% between 2007 and 2010 in the developed countries, bringing this figure from 12 million to 19 million. In order to understand how this picture may change in the next few decades, it is neces- 24 sary to analyze the evolutions of the underlying variables. Following this short introduc- 25 tion, which is mainly designed to stress how important and topical this issue is, in the next few chapters all the variables at stake and their interactions will be described in a systematic form so as to provide a greater insight into the global access to food. figure 1.3. number of malnourished people in developed countries (millions of people) 21 19.4 19 18 17.0 16.7 15 12.3 12 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-07 2010e source: fao, 2011 (the data reported for 2010 are estimates). Dick Durrance Ii/National Geographic Image Collection
- 15. 1.2 The SCoPe anD MeDiuM-lonG mum common denominator in the current trends, i.e. problems in the ways of distribut- ing food and natural and energy resources, which are not easy to solve. TerM fooD SeCuriTY SCenario: figure 1.4. food security: a multidimensional issue an inTerPreTaTiVe MoDel SoCieTY health population social conflicts and enVironMenT eConoMY migrations i fooD SeCuriTY iS n 1996, the World Food Summit defined food security as the “situation in which all Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook DefineD aS The people have a physical and an economic access to an amount of healthy and nutritious markets and Climate “SiTuaTion in WhiCh all production change food, which is sufficient to meet their dietary requirements and their food prefer- PeoPle haVe a PhYSiCal models ences in order for them to have an active and healthy life.”8 anD an eConoMiC Today, this is a central issue for conducting any serious analysis on the future of mankind that water aCCeSS To an aMounT food demand scarcity of healThY anD is directly or indirectly beset by a significant number of critical issues: some of these have and supply agricultural techniques nuTriTiouS fooD, WhiCh an impact on food security (for example, climate changes), others are influenced by the lat- iS SuffiCienT To ter (for example, migrations or social conflicts), with particularly intricate interactions with Commodity MeeT Their DieTarY markets economic and political aspects, with social implications and with environmental phenomena. requireMenTS In order to understand the complexity of this theme, it is necessary to adopt a multidimen- anD Their fooD safety 26 sional approach, which roughly includes elements related to economic trends, to political next 27 PreferenCeS in orDer for TheM To haVe an choices, to environmental risks and to social issues. Furthermore, this issue is to be analyzed aCTiVe anD healThY life” by integrating two different perspectives: on the one hand, food security is to be seen as the need to provide food to growing populations, especially in developing regions; on the other, governance international globale the quality and safety of the food produced and distributed is to be guaranteed. Quantity and policies quality have to go hand in hand. PoliTiCS 1.2.1 The economy and food security source: The european house-ambrosetti, 2011. The TurninG PoinT The first cause of malnutrition is poverty; therefore, the turning point in the fight against in The fiGhT aGainST malnutrition is the increase in wealth and its more equitable distribution. It is important MalnuTriTion iS The to consider that agriculture-driven economic growth is one of the best levers for tackling 1.2.2 The economy and food security inCreaSe in WealTh anD this problem since most people who do not have enough food are small farmers in rural iTS More equiTaBle DiSTriBuTion areas. In this connection, a study conducted by the World Bank showed that an increase The first cause of malnutrition is poverty; therefore, the turning point in the fight against The TurninG PoinT by 1 point in GDP generated by the agricultural sector is twice as effective in reducing malnutrition is the increase in wealth and its more equitable distribution. It is important to in The fiGhT aGainST poverty as the economic growth generated by other sectors.9 This does not mean search- consider that agriculture-driven economic growth is one of the best levers for tackling this MalnuTriTion iS The inCreaSe in WealTh anD ing for single or overly simplistic solutions. However, this shows that the agricultural sec- problem since most people who do not have enough food are small farmers in rural areas. iTS More equiTaBle tor is crucial for the development of strategies designed to improve the living conditions In this connection, a study conducted by the World Bank showed that an increase by 1 point DiSTriBuTion of rural populations. in GDP generated by the agricultural sector is twice as effective in reducing poverty as the From this perspective, the growth in the world population, the access to the consumer economic growth generated by other sectors.9 This does not mean searching for single or market of populations which were once excluded and the remaining structural gaps in overly simplistic solutions. However, this shows that the agricultural sector is crucial for the the world distribution of income do point to the need to identify a concrete path to sus- development of strategies designed to improve the living conditions of rural populations. tainable development. Besides these medium-long term trends, there is the recent trend From this perspective, the growth in the world population, the access to the consumer characterized by the financialization of commodities, which shows that there is a mini- market of populations which were once excluded and the remaining structural gaps in
- 16. the world distribution of income do point to the need to identify a concrete path to sus- tainable development. Besides these medium-long term trends, there is the recent trend characterized by the financialization of commodities, which shows that there is a mini- mum common denominator in the current trends, i.e. problems in the ways of distribut- ing food and natural and energy resources, which are not easy to solve. 1.2.2 Politics and food security The role of The A crucial aspect in the access to food is the role of local, national and international institutions inSTiTuTionS iS in regulating the production and distribution of food, in protecting the weakest segments of CruCial in reGulaTinG the population, but also in promoting a more equitable and sustainable development. The ProDuCTion anD The stalemate in the negotiations over the most relevant issues of the so-called “Doha Round” DiSTriBuTion of fooD - designed to harmonize trade rules and transparency - is a critical problem which is still caus- ing major difficulties in the trade relations among countries, with major market distortions. Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Given the strong implications for the world population, it is necessary to develop effective marketing and distribution mechanisms at the international level and to strengthen the con- trol powers of supranational and national authorities. 1.2.3 The environment and food security CliMaTe ChanGe haS anD Agriculture and animal husbandry are still the main sources of income for large segments Will haVe an iMPaCT on of the population, especially in developing countries, and water is the fundamental resource 28 The ProDuCTion SYSTeM of for this activity. The most significant challenge for the environment in the next decade is The aGriCulTural SeCTor, climate change and its related phenomena. on The STaBiliTY of The ouTPuT anD on The SafeTY The estimated and expected repercussions of climate change on food security are found in of The fooD Chain the main four key aspects of food security: availability, stability, access and the use of food. This means that climate change has and will have an impact on the agricultural produc- tion system, on its output, on the purchasing power of individuals who live on subsistence farming and on the safety of the food chain, which is allegedly threatened by the spread of viruses and bacteria. This threat is to be considered with great attention. It will suffice to consider that bacteria and contaminations are the main reasons why the largest amount of produce in developing countries does not have the sufficient food quality and security standards required to be exported to developed countries. 1.2.4 Social variables and food security Pete Mcbride/National Geographic Image Collection an aDequaTe Starting with the end of the Cold War, political and military issues have been accompa- aVailaBiliTY of fooD nied by other problems – from poverty and the risks linked to the environment, to the haS alWaYS Been a availability and the use of natural and food resources, to health – which have been criti- CruCial faCTor for cal risk factors for conflicts, especially in the form of domestic civil wars, often when the SoCial PeaCe shortage of food, water and natural resources is associated with an inherent and funda- mental social and economic instability. An adequate availability of food has always been a crucial factor for social peace, both inside the countries and in the relationships among countries. Similarly, a sufficient degree of social stability is an indispensible condition for dealing with a limited availability of food. The four areas indicated – economics, politics, the environment and society - will be analyzed in greater depth in the next chapters.
- 17. Michael Nichols/National Geographic Image Collection Food Security: Challenges and Outlook The priCe of food 2. eConomiC variaBles and
- 18. 2.1 The DYnaMiCS of PriCeS The 2008 food crisis in The fooD CoMMoDiTieS MarkeT The year 2008 was marked by a serious exchanged – has had negative impacts on food crisis. at the end of the year, prices markets, industries, retailers and con- of the main food commodities were found sumers, but it has also damaged that to be 40% higher than the average price part of the world’s population already liv- recorded in 2007 and more than 76% ing in conditions of poverty and malnu- compared to 2006 levels. Cocoa marked trition, forcing 115 million more people a The rooT of hunGer iS lthough it is not the only important aspect, the economic factor is certainly an increase of 520%, sugar increased by below the subsistence level, for a total of Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook PoVerTY crucial to the access to food. In fact, the root of hunger is poverty, which, in or- 110%, wheat by 55%, soy beans by 36%, one billion people in conditions of chronic der to be eradicated, requires equitable and sustainable economic development, oats by 20% (increases recorded previ- hunger. The price increase, coupled with ously coincide only with another period the relative dependence of some mar- especially in agriculture. It is estimated that 75% of the people below the poverty level that was significant for world food and kets, has made food a crucial factor for live in rural communities and are primarily small farmers. agriculture, the two years of 1973-1974). nations - according to some readings of The recent awareness of the centrality of the role played by agricultural development in The social and economic relevance of the phenomenon, now equal to that of aiding access to food, driven by the tensions sparked by the food crisis of 2006-2008, these generalized increases are clearly energy and of armaments -, persuading represents an element of discontinuity with regard to the previous 20 years of the ne- linked to the role that food commodities governments to strengthen their level of glect of agriculture1 (1985-2005), as it was defined by De Janvry.2 In fact, following the have in most processes of production/dis- intervention in the food industry. progress and innovations introduced by the green revolution (in the Sixties and Seven- tribution of commonly consumed foods: following the crisis, more than 40 govern- 32 ties), which had helped to greatly increase yields and lower agricultural commodity 33 significant variations in the prices of these ments have imposed price control meas- The laST TWo DeCaDeS prices by 60%, the last two decades have witnessed a decline in public and private in- commodities generate consequences, ures and forms of restrictions on exports. haVe WiTneSSeD a vestments in agriculture, also because of low prices (leading to more modest economic both direct - the selling price of bread, in particular, insulation measures have DeCline in PuBliC anD returns) and the belief that the market would regulate itself. pasta, cereals, and the purchasing power been adopted by many developing coun- PriVaTe inVeSTMenTS in So, if in 1979, 18% of world aid to development was used for agriculture, in 2004 this of families - and indirect - the costs for tries to reduce the impact of higher prices aGriCulTure proportion had fallen to 3.5%: “The world did not think that eating was a problem: raising livestock that affect the price of of international markets on the purchase there was so much food, at low prices,” said Kostas Stamoulis, Director of the Agricul- foodstuffs such as meat, eggs and dairy price in the domestic market. analyzing tural Sector in Economic Development Service of the FAO. products – on the level of the citizens’ the data of the long-term effect adjusted However, the agricultural price crisis of 2006-2008 marked a sharp turnaround: in welfare and the profitability of the com- according to a non-specified inflation,3 it 2007 alone; some 75 million people fell below the line of poverty due to the food crisis, panies involved in the food chain (and not can be seen how, for about 30 years, the thus bringing to the fore the question of the relationship between development, access only due to the reallocation of the con- international markets for agricultural and to food and agriculture, leading many to hope for a second green revolution. sumption choices of individuals). food goods have had decreasing (or stag- The fao fooD PriCe inDeX The FAO Food Price Index is a measurement of the monthly variations of international The sudden and rapid increase in prices nating) prices in real terms. in general, unDerlineS an eXTreMelY prices of a basket of food products; it consists of the average index of the price of five of almost all commodities - extended by from the seventies onward, food prices CriTiCal SiTuaTion groups of products (cereals, dairy, oils/fats, meat and sugar), considering the average the loss of value of weaker currencies at fell on average every year between 2% and shares of exportation of each of the groups for the 2002-2004 period. the expense of the dollar and euro, the 3% in real terms until 2008, when there As you can see from Figure 2.2, the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) follows a trend that money with which agricultural goods and was a turnaround in real terms (mirroring has been growing strongly for 10 months now, except for a slight decline in March. food on international markets are usually the actual “strength” of the crisis that took The data, expressed in real terms, underlines a very critical situation that has not been previously found. If we consider the nominal index, the figure for February 2011 has even reached 237 points, an increase of 2.8% over the previous month: the highest figure ever recorded since January 1990, i.e., since the FAO started the measurement. It is important to consider how, in recent years, not only has there been an increase in prices, but also a sharp increase in volatility and, hence, uncertainty. The numbers of the new food crisis are clear even if one considers separately the differ-
- 19. place between 2007 and 2008). more than the absolute size of the oscil- figure 2.2. Dynamics of the price of food - the fao food Price index (january in light of the long-term, therefore, the lation of prices, it was the rapidity of the 1990/april 2011) historical significance of the increase increase occurring in 2008 that alarmed which occurred in 2008 should be re- the markets and caused extensive loss of duced and the many adjectives used by purchasing power of the poorest coun- the international press seem to be partly tries, with the reversal of a trend (down- 230.0 unjustified. ward), which seemed irreversible. 210.0 190.0 170.0 figure 2.1. Policies adopted in response to the increase in prices in 2008 150.0 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 130.0 north america, latin america asia africa europe, oceania 110.0 90.0 20 70.0 1/1990 6/1990 11/1990 4/1991 9/1991 2/1992 7/1992 12/1992 5/1993 10/1993 3/1994 8/1994 1/1995 6/1995 11/1995 4/1996 9/1996 2/1997 7/1997 12/1997 5/1998 10/1998 3/1999 8/1999 1/2000 6/2000 11/2000 4/2001 9/2001 2/2002 7/2002 12/2002 5/2003 10/2003 3/2004 8/2004 1/2005 6/2005 11/2005 4/2006 9/2006 2/2007 7/2007 12/2007 5/2008 10/2008 3/2009 8/2009 1/2010 6/2010 11/2010 4/2011 18 34 16 35 fao real food price index fao nominal food price index 14 source: fao, may 2011. 12 Countries 10 ent indexes that make up the FAO Food Price Index. In fact, one can see how – in the April 2010/April 2011 period – the following increases were recorded: 8 - Oils Price Index: +49.3% - Sugar Price Index: +49% 6 - Meat Price Index: +14.6% - Dairy Price Index: +12% 4 - Cereals Price Index: +71.2% 2 Also, from the analysis of the following graphs, it can be seen how agricultural com- in reCenT YearS, noT modities have had extraordinary fluctuations, both upward and downward, in the last onlY haS There Been 0 four years. an inCreaSe in fooD reduced cereal export food reduced taxes price CoMMoDiTY PriCeS, BuT import tariff restrictions subsidies on food controls The Commodity Price Index registered upward variations of 116.7 percentage points alSo a SharP inCreaSe from July 2005 into 2008, which then sharply dropped to 121.3 points in five months. in VolaTiliTY. Since the beginning of 2009, the index has recorded an increase of 105.9 percent. The same dynamics, once again, has also affected food prices. As shown in Figure 2.4, the Commodity Food Price Index recorded gains of 71.3 percentage points from Sep- tember 2006 to June 2008 – months in which the highest peak was recorded – then dropped to 60.1 percentage points over the next six months. From early 2009 to April source: The european house-ambrosetti elaboration on data from fao, 2008. 2011, however, the index increased to 62.8 percentage points.
- 20. Changes in the price of wheat has been at the center of controversy for its fundamental figure 2.3. Development of the Commodity Price index (february 1992/april 2011) importance in the diets of the world’s population. The recent market volatility has led to a 120.9% price increase from March 2007 to March 2008, when the peak was re- 235 corded, and then fell to 56.5% in March 2010. Then in the last year, the price of wheat underwent an increase of 74.4%, creating another dizzying peak. 215 Like with wheat, the trend of the price of rice has also been the focus of speculative dy- 195 namics, especially in the period of 2007-2008. To date, however, rice is the only com- -116.7 p.p. -121.3 p.p. modity not yet affected by the high food inflation in recent months. It is also important 175 to consider that rice is the staple food for over half of the world’s population4 and is 155 now probably the only product that allows us to avoid a food crisis on the level of the one in 2008. Nevertheless, it must be taken into account in order to consider how the 135 export market for rice is very “sensitive” and, therefore, how problems for importing 115 countries could be caused if even just one manufacturer, such as Thailand or Vietnam, +105.9 p.p. decided, not to export its surplus production but to store it instead, as a means of pro- 95 tection against rising prices. Changes in the price of rice, in fact, were on the order of 75 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 0.3% from April 2010 up to the present. The reason for the substantial price stability is that production will reach a record crop level this year, while the demand has remained 55 constant. In contrast, the volatility of the price increase of markets had boosted the 35 price of rice by 207.6% from September 2007 to April 2008, then dropped to 45.8% 10/1993 02/1992 12/1992 08/1994 06/1995 04/1996 02/1997 12/1997 10/1998 08/1999 06/2000 04/2001 02/2002 12/2002 10/2003 08/2004 06/2005 04/2006 02/2007 12/2007 10/2008 08/2009 06/2010 04/2011 over the next eight months. Since the beginning of 2009 until today, the value has actu- ally decreased by 18.6%. Even though there has been a deflation of the speculation bubble for the price of rice in 2005 = 100, also includes the fuel and non-fuel price indices recent months, there have been significant consequences on the weaker sectors of the p.p.= percentage points population, who spend between 50% and 80% of their income on food. An increase of 36 this magnitude, thus, has an immediate impact on the quantity and quality of the food 37 consumed. In essence, it means that these people consume mostly food at a lower cost and reduce the number and quantity of meals. figure 2.4. Development of the Commodity food Price index (april 1991/april 2011) The predictions for the coming months indicate a rather high level of agricultural com- modity prices, which will result in higher inflation, especially in poorer countries. For the next few months, therefore, the situation will remain worrisome, while it is still open to the risk of another food crisis like the one that hit developing countries in 190 +62.8 p.p. 2007-2008, mainly due to uncertainty regarding the crops in 2011, the rapid reduction 170 in global cereal stocks and high oil prices. This serious food inflation will have its great- +71.3 p.p. est impact on two categories of people: poor households that spend a large part of their 150 income on food and the citizens of poor countries which have a constant deficit of food and which cannot afford to finance the import of food from abroad. 130 +60.1 p.p. 110 90 70 10/1993 04/1991 02/1992 12/1992 08/1994 06/1995 04/1996 02/1997 12/1997 10/1998 08/1999 06/2000 04/2001 02/2002 12/2002 10/2003 08/2004 06/2005 04/2006 02/2007 12/2007 10/2008 08/2009 06/2010 04/2011 2005 = 100, includes the indices of prices for cereals, oils, vegetables, meat, fish, sugar, bananas and oranges. p.p=percentage points source: international monetary fund, may 2011.
- 21. figure 2.5. Development of the price of wheat (april 1991/april 2011) (dollars per ton) 2.2 The keY faCTorS in DeTerMininG The PriCeS 450 of fooD CoMMoDiTieS 400 +120.9% 350 +74.4% 300 250 200 T -56.5% he factors behind the agricultural prices are multiple, complex and closely inter- The faCTorS BehinD The Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 150 related. These include issues related to the worldwide macroeconomic and demo- aGriCulTural PriCeS are graphic scenario, such as population growth, the appearance on the consumer mar- MulTiPle, CoMPleX anD 100 CloSelY inTerrelaTeD ket of people who were excluded previously, the dynamics in the price of oil, etc. There are 04/1995 04/1993 04/1991 12/1991 08/1992 12/1993 08/1994 12/1995 08/1996 04/1997 12/1997 08/1998 04/1999 12/1999 08/2000 04/2001 12/2001 08/2002 04/2003 12/2003 08/2004 04/2005 12/2005 08/2006 04/2007 12/2007 08/2008 04/2009 12/2009 08/2010 04/2011 also factors related to their cyclical nature and climatic conditions. In addition to these structural elements in determining the price of food, there is the recent phenomenon of financial activities of agricultural commodities, concerning the prices of raw materials (cereals, rice, sugar, etc.), which has triggered speculative dynamics, creating further tensions in the trade markets. Then there is the strong increase in demand for agricultural products involved in the produc- 38 tion of fuels derived from plants (biofuels) and the persistence of protectionist policies trig- 39 figure 2.6. Development of the price of rice (april 1991/april 2011) (dollars per ton) gered by many governments, which help to introduce additional distortion in the markets. In summary, the causes of volatility in agricultural prices can be found in the factors deter- mining and influencing the demand and supply of food. So let us try to understand what the 1000 -45.8% cyclical and structural factors at work in defining the possibilities of access and the relative 900 level of prices actually are, and how they interact with each other. For the sake of completeness, in the following section, the aspects shown in Figure 2.7. will be +207.6% 800 briefly analyzed one by one. 700 figure 2.7. factors which have determined the high price of food prices over the periods 2006-2008 and 2010-2011 600 DeManD SuPPlY 500 a population growth a inefficiency of the economic models of 400 food distribution B increase in income levels of developing B low level of investments in agriculture 300 economies and low growth of productivity 200 C production of biofuels C difficult market access D low exchange rate of the dollar D Trade barriers 100 e financing of agricultural commodities e drought and bad weather in key areas 04/1995 04/1993 04/1991 12/1991 08/1992 12/1993 08/1994 12/1995 08/1996 04/1997 12/1997 08/1998 04/1999 12/1999 08/2000 04/2001 12/2001 08/2002 04/2003 12/2003 08/2004 04/2005 12/2005 08/2006 04/2007 12/2007 08/2008 04/2009 12/2009 08/2010 04/2011 of agricultural production f low stock level f increases in production costs due to the increase in the price of energy source: international monetary fund, may 2011. source: The european house-ambrosetti elaboration on fao data, 2011.
- 22. 2.2.1 food Demand run. For example, in the Eighties, China and India were importing about 14 million tons of grain; in recent years this share has dropped to 6 million tons, thanks to the increased The DeManD for The demand for food products will increase considerably, mainly because of the increase in domestic production of cereals achieved over the last 20 years. fooD ProDuCTS Will the world opulation and the rate of urbanization. Finally, the impact of the recent economic crisis should not be underestimated. In fact, inCreaSe, MainlY Due To the reduction of financial aid and assistance by rich countries to help poor ones, associ- PoPulaTion GroWTh A Population growth. The most reliable estimates indicate a level of more than eight billion people in the world in 2030. It is estimated that by 2050, this figure may grow to nine bil- figure 2.9. economic weight of the GDP (billions of dollars) lion people. This is discussed in more detail in Chapter 5. 39.1% 27.1% 36.2% 25.1% 35.7% 21.1% figure 2.8. The dynamics of the world population (millions of people) 8000 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 7000 6000 10.5% 15.2% 23.0% 5000 23.4% 23.6% 20.2% 4000 1990 2000 2009 gdp worldwide: gdp worldwide: gdp worldwide: 3000 24,804 billion us$ 42,193 billion us$ 70,041 billion 2000 european union developing united states others 40 1000 countries in asia* 41 *group made up of 26 countries: afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, China, fiji islands, india, indonesia, kiribati, malaysia, maldives, 0 myanmar, nepal, pakistan, papua new guinea, philippines, samoa; solomon islands, sri lanka, Thailand, east Timor, Tonga, vanuatu and vietnam. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 source: international monetary fund, march 2011. rural more developed urban more developed rural less developed urban less developed ated with the contraction of international trade flows, has made the level of poverty of the source: undesa, 2008. latter even more critical. Paradoxically, the developing countries that have suffered from the international economic situation the most are those whose economic growth depends more directly on exports of goods and services or on a sustained flow of direct foreign The WorlD’S eConoMiC B Economic Development. Another important trend is formed by the shifting of the world’s investments. In other words, these are the countries most closely associated, regarding CenTer of GraViTY economic center of gravity toward developing countries and emerging markets. positive growth and development, with the dynamics of global trade and, therefore, with a iS ShifTinG ToWarD Economic growth generally has positive effects – such as an increase of per capita income, more promising outlook for economic growth. Growth prospects that raise questions today, DeVeloPinG CounTrieS anD which can make it easier to have access to food – but it also poses challenges that should not at least in part. eMerGinG MarkeTS be underestimated: the increase in food consumption (especially of products such as meat, milk and cereals) will have a truly significant impact on the supply (in terms of volumes and C Biofuels. In recent years, several structural factors (such as accelerated growth rates of composition) and will require greater use of energy, leading to risks such as environmental emerging countries) and events (today, the nuclear crisis in Japan and the persistent unrest impact and scarcity in natural resources that must be appropriately managed. The FAO has in some areas of the Middle East and North Africa) have weighed on the development of shown that increases in the level of per capita income typically mean not only an increase crude oil prices. Faced with soaring oil prices,6 several countries have encouraged the pro- in demand, but also a change in eating habits, with a predominantly higher consumption duction of biofuels. of meat rather than of cereals. As explained in previous publications of the Barilla Center The demand for food products will increase mainly due to population growth. This practice Biofuel ProDuCTion for Food & Nutrition, most meat production involves a significant environmental impact has found a significant following among farmers, in that it is supported by government haS founD a SiGnifiCanT in terms of water consumption and pollutant emissions.5 Despite all this, these changes – subsidies and incentives (paid mainly by the European Union and the United States) and folloWinG aMonG taken individually – do not seem to have triggered the recent increases in food prices. This by particularly favorable prices. The FAO has estimated that in 2007-2008, the production farMerS is because of structural factors, which the countries and the market can adjust to in the long of biofuels utilized at least 100 million ton of cereals, 4.7% of the world total. The produc-
- 23. tion of these fuels has created negative impacts for developing countries, in particular. The substitution effect that has been created, in fact, has not only pushed cereal prices up, but it has also generated an upward trend on all types of food. The WiDeSPreaD D Currency Exchange Dynamics. One of the main effects of the recent financial crisis was uSe of finanCial the increase in uncertainty in world currency markets. In global agricultural trade, the DeriVaTiVe ProDuCTS currency of exchange that still prevails is the U.S. dollar. Precisely the U.S. currency has BaSeD on aGriCulTural depreciated significantly in some periods in relation to other currencies, mainly because CoMMoDiTieS haS of the economic recession in the U.S. The price of the dollar has made raw food materi- ConTriBuTeD To VolaTiliTY in PriCeS als particularly competitive for those countries that have benefited from the apprecia- tion of their currency. Above all, this situation has triggered a greater demand by these countries and, subsequently, an increase in food prices over the medium-term among farmers, which is caused both by the increasing demand and the attempt to cover the unfavorable exchange rate. In addition, we have to take into account the impact of the huge volume of liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve in the global economic system Food Security: Challenges and Outlook over the past decade, through policies of quantitative expansion. Cheap money, in fact, tends to push up food prices because food can be considered a perfect commodity in an unbalanced market. Furthermore, this liquidity has been directed toward developing countries, for example China, where the inflationary impact is greater because of the fixed exchange rate. The WiDeSPreaD E Financial speculation. Part of the volatility in agricultural prices in recent years is also uSe of finanCial due to speculation. In recent years, in fact, the use of financial derivative products based DeriVaTiVe ProDuCTS on agricultural commodities has spread. The amount of money invested in commodity 42 BaSeD on aGriCulTural futures has exploded from an estimated $5 billion in 2000 to $175 billion in 2007. Over CoMMoDiTieS haS ConTriBuTeD To the past five years, the trading of these contracts has more than doubled and the high VolaTiliTY in PriCeS level of speculation inherent in these instruments has directly affected the level of the real prices of food: in essence, there have been actual financial activities of agricultural commodities. Although expert assessments tend to differ with regard to the role played by speculative factors in determining food inflation (some experts contend that the exchange of com- modity futures contracts did not have such significant consequences), there has been frequent criticism of the current trading system and exchange of basic necessities, oc- curring in specific commodity exchanges (the main ones are New York, Chicago and London). The most hostile judgments and widespread discontent emerged during the 2008-2009 surge in prices, caused largely by the massive attention investors paid to this type of goods, considered “safe havens” in times of economic instability and weakness in Willis D. Vaughn/National Geographic Image Collection equity markets. In conclusion, there is, therefore, a mixture of finance and basic necessi- ties, where the former, through the choices of investors and speculators, has the ability to adversely affect the efficient formation of the prices of food products. F Level of stock. Regarding the low level of stocks, it is important to remember that, in terms of stocks that are too low compared to agricultural consumption, markets see a significantly reduced ability to cope with shocks on both the demand and the supply. This topic will be discussed more specifically in Chapter 3.
- 24. 2.2.2 food Supply C Market access. For small farmers, who represent the majority of individuals living be- low the poverty level, food security is made possible, in part, by the degree of participa- In general, it can be seen how the production (or supply) of agricultural commodities has tion in the exchange of food products and, consequently, by a more or less free access to increased over the years; on average, it turns out to be higher, in terms of growth rates, than the input and output elements that constitute it. In general, the factors that determine the demographic shift. FAO data shows that 6.9 billion people7 living in the world today have market access regard covering the transaction costs, understood as transport, storage, a food availability that is 15% higher compared to that of the four billion inhabitants of the information, finance and contracts. planet in the Eighties. It is also estimated that the amount of daily calories produced per per- Furthermore, there is also still the problem of physical access to the market. It has been There iS alSo STill The son is equal to 2,720 Kcal. shown that the quality of transport infrastructures has a major influence on access. For ProBleM of PhYSiCal example, in developing countries, for 16% of the rural population (about 439 million aCCeSS To MarkeTS for froM a PurelY TeChniCal This means that, from a purely technical and quantitative standpoint, the world is able to SMall farMerS anD quanTiTaTiVe produce enough food for all and that fact should be reflected in the improved wellbeing of the people), it takes at least five hours of travel to reach a city of at least 5,000 inhabit- STanDPoinT, The WorlD iS people; a situation which in reality does not occur, as evidenced by FAO data on the increase ants, whereas in Africa only 25% of the rural population can reach a city with more than aBle To ProDuCe of undernourished people (about 925 million persons estimated for 2010). 50,000 people in less than two hours of travel.10 Finally, another form of physical barrier enouGh fooD for eVerYone The causes behind this phenomenon are multiple and complex. to access to agricultural markets is represented by the standards of quality and safety. In fact, some of the cereal crops in developing countries, because of low seed quality, a ManY CounTrieS ThaT A Processes of food distribution. A first explanation lies in the pattern of food distribution greater susceptibility to infections, etc., do not meet the quality criteria of the developed Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook are knoWn for Their and the national policies adopted. Some evidence has shown that, in many countries, de- nations, thereby preventing its export. Participation in and having access to the market ConSiDeraBle WeiGhT in spite their significant importance in world agricultural production, there is still a wide- require extreme efforts, especially by the poor. If we consider how a limited participation GloBal aGriCulTural spread presence of undernourished people. In this regard, it is estimated that about 75% contributes to further reduce the wealth and increase the level of malnutrition of a terri- ProDuCTion ShoW a WiDeSPreaD PreSenCe of of the countries that show signs of malnutrition are food exporters in the world.8 An ex- tory, it can be inferred how the ease of market access, by reducing transaction costs and unDernouriSheD PeoPle ample is India, which – although there are about 238 million people living there in condi- infrastructure development, is crucial for the future. tions of malnutrition – in 2000, some 60 million tons of cereals produced in the country In essence, when we talk about access to the market we are referring to all input factors. were exported. This example – one of the many that international bodies and nongov- Among these, one that deserves attention is the financial and credit market, which is ab- ernmental organizations have reported to the international community – demonstrates sent in rural areas that are less inclined to fund farming in disadvantaged areas. The lack the inefficiency of the economic models of food distribution, which appear to favor the of financial support makes it impossible to carry out regular agricultural activities, if not 44 45 commercialization and monetization of food products, rather than the enhancement of in the logic of pure subsistence: it is, in fact, difficult to purchase machinery, seeds, land food availability and access to it by all segments of the population. The proper function- and fertilizers. In recent years, with the introduction of the practice of microcredit, it has ing of the food market is a precondition for the reduction of malnutrition and hunger in been possible for the poorest segments of the population to have access to the market and the world. The market, in fact, has the task of promoting the efficient allocation of food reduce transaction costs. to the population and, at the same time, to ensure an adequate financial return to all eco- Another possible starting point for making access easier is given by the distribution of nomic actors involved in the process. However, the market cannot always vouch for that. land and its use. Often, due to past matters, forms of exercise of local power, of national What is needed, therefore, in some contexts and areas, is intervention by supranational policies and market distortions, access to land is bureaucratized and expensive, with a bodies which are able to define, regulate and implement actions and economic and social negative impact on food prices. measures for that purpose. Small producers, who often boast higher yields per hectare than larger farmers, are in dif- ficulty due to the lack of transparency in contracts for the lease or purchase of land. Situ- PoliCieS To SuPPorT B Support policies. Furthermore, in order to improve the allocation of resources for agricul- ations of this kind are also created by a lack of information among the smaller farmers aGriCulTure ture, policies to support agriculture locally and internationally must be put into operation.9 about prices and market conditions. Better access to market information, such as prices, loCallY anD In particular, productivity should be increased through public and private investments in volumes, trade policy and transport, would allow manufacturers to enjoy a clearer picture inTernaTionallY support of small farmers (for example, investments in irrigation technology, seeds, techni- of the characteristics of the market, thus facilitating their position on the international MuST Be PuT inTo cal, scientific and commercial support). stage, increasing the efficiency of their work and ensuring greater access to food. oPeraTion As mentioned at the beginning of the chapter, it is precisely the variability in yields and in the profitability of agricultural production that have led to an increase in the riskiness of D Trade barriers. Another factor distorting the dynamics of the aspect of supply is the a DYnaMiC faCTor investments in agriculture and a consequent decrease in investments, causing a general existence of barriers to agricultural trade, agricultural policies and subsidies. In recent DiSTorTinG The aSPeCT years, the major cerealproducing countries (China, European Union, USA and India) of aGriCulTural SuPPlY reduction in the yield of the land. According to FAO data, today the yield per hectare for iS The eXiSTenCe of cereals has recorded a productivity growth below 1% per year, compared with the annual have often been geared toward a reduction in volumes traded on international markets. TraDe BarrierS growth of over 2%, with 5% for wheat recorded between 1960 and 1985. It seems evi- This choice has led to a significant reduction in world food supply, which has helped dent that a lower investment in agricultural infrastructures and technology will lead to a increase price volatility in the market. Other policies have also created the conditions gradual loss of productivity and to an overall reduction in food supply. which restrict the flow of international trade; we are referring to all activities aimed at protecting their domestic market (customs duties, import quotas) or, conversely, at supporting it on the global scenario (export subsidies, agreements). It is clear how these
- 25. policies, implemented primarily in response to high food prices, are designed to generate More in general, for non-oil commodities, weather damage to crops was greater than iT iS eXPeCTeD ThaT direct benefits for the domestic market, but at the same time, given the strong inter- had been predicted for the end of 2010. Therefore, it is expected that prices will start to PriCeS Will STarT To decrease only after the 2011 agricultural season. In this regard, the IMF estimated that DeCreaSe onlY afTer relationship between the markets, have the ability to create imbalances and short-term The 2011 aGriCulTural effects on world prices. The restrictions on agricultural trade policies described above are non-oil commodity prices will undergo an average increase of 11% in 2011. SeaSon clearly the expression of a beggar-thy-neighbor behavior11 by governments, and represent As we have seen, to ensure an adequate level of food security, it is necessary to ensure the a serious problem for the trading-nations, in that it causes a reduction of the stability and proper functioning of the food market. What is produced must not only be sufficient but predictability of market opportunities. also accessible. To ensure that people have full access to food, it is essential to act on the In this regard, recent history shows how, since the summer of 2010, the international price complex system of structural and economic factors that have an impact on the supply and of wheat has started a trend of strong growth, triggered by Russia’s announcement to sus- demand for food. In this regard, it is particularly effective to invest in the development pend wheat exports in the wake of a very critical domestic situation caused by drought and and structuring of social and economic models capable of ensuring an efficient allocation fires. Since then, Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have banned or restricted of resources and adequate economic returns for farmers. the export of wheat, while in India, a de facto ban has been maintained on exports of wheat This, in fact, allows them to invest in rural infrastructures, human capital and scientific and rice since 2008. research, in order to implement all the strategies for rapid growth as to wealth and in the A further example of the negative impact of market restrictions stems from the ongoing area of food security. negotiations of the Doha Round. It is estimated that an agreement to reduce barriers to Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook international trade on food products would help developing countries with an increase of about $40 billion in annual exports. However, opening up to international trade in all countries, while on the one hand, is a desir- able and necessary choice for alleviating the distorting effects of subsidies and protectionist measures, on the other, it is not in itself sufficient, but must be accompanied by parallel poli- cies of economic and social steps to limit the risks of such aperture, especially for the most vulnerable populations. During the crisis in food prices of 2007-2008, the countries most affected in terms of access to food were actually those which were the most open, precisely because of the absence of sufficient economic and social safety nets. Therefore, a profound 46 47 rethinking of trade, agricultural and social policies at the local, national and international levels is of fundamental importance.. aDVerSe WeaTher E Climate change. Another critical aspect with regard to supply is the environmental/ ConDiTionS anD oTher climate factor. naTural DiSaSTerS haD a Adverse weather conditions (drought, floods, extreme events) and other natural disasters ConSiDeraBle influenCe on had a considerable influence on the grain and cereal harvests in the period 2005-2010. The Cereal harVeST in The 2005-2010 PerioD The effects on production were manifested in an increase in the level of uncertainty present in the markets and an increase in prices. While these natural events have always been an obvious risk factor for food production, an exacerbation in terms of both fre- quency and severity due to the climate change in progress is expected. Recently, in fact, natural events which may be responsible for a reduction in supply have been numerous; including floods in Pakistan and Australia (which reduced the supply and simultaneously increased the demand), drought in Argentina – the world’s third largest exporter of seeds for oil –, the natural disaster that occurred in Japan and, unfortunately, many others.. The PriCeS of enerGY haVe F Energy Sources. The prices of energy have also had an impact on the volume of the alSo haD an iMPaCT on The overall supply and price of food. In fact, increases in oil prices have a direct impact on VoluMe of The oVerall fertilizer prices and transport, adding to production costs and ultimately determining re- SuPPlY anD PriCe of fooD duced production levels, especially for small and medium-size farmers. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that 2011 will be also characterized by pressure to raise oil prices, due to the continued dynamics of the strong demand and, on the contrary, the supply which is too weak and slow if compared to market conditions. As a result, the pro- jection of the IMF in relation to the base price of oil for 2011 is $90 per barrel, compared to the forecasts of October 2010 ($79 per barrel12). Rich Reid/National Geographic Image Collection
- 26. Randy Olson/National Geographic Image Collection inTernaTional poliTiCs 3. gloBal governanCe and
- 27. T 3.1 GloBal GoVernanCe in PoliTiCS PlaY he most important and decisive factor for the future is the role institutions and a funDaMenTal role policy makers can play in identifying the causes of poverty and malnutrition in the in SearChinG for SoluTionS To The world and in finding solutions to these problems. This is even more relevant in view of the way in which food is becoming - once again in the 21st century - a strategic superior- The fielD of fooD SeCuriTY: iSSue of PoVerTY anD MalnuTriTion ity factor that is as important as energy and defense. Therefore, the notion of governance has taken on an increasingly relevant role in the political agenda of national and interna- MoDelS, GuiDelineS, reCoMMenDaTionS ProPoSeD in The WorlD tional institutions. BY SoMe keY inTernaTional The term “governance” means the management of political affairs by one or more countries at all levels (economic, political and administrative) in terms of effectiveness, responsibil- ity, rule of law, political stability and wellbeing of the population. Today, governing the problems besetting the world is the great challenge facing both countries and institutions. orGanizaTionS non-hoMoGeneouS anD In this connection, it is important to stress that, in order to eradicate malnutrition and unCoorDinaTeD PoliCY poverty, it is necessary to adopt a political management approach. This should be charac- inTerVenTionS Do noT terized by a common vision, with complementary and unique goals and action plans. Non- «W ProDuCe effeCTiVe homogeneous and uncoordinated policy interventions do not produce effective results, nor e, Heads of State and Government, [...] reiterate the right of all people reSulTS, nor Do TheY Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook reDuCe MalnuTriTion do they reduce malnutrition and poverty. These are the reasons that led Kofi Annan, the to have access to safe and nutritious food, in line with the right to anD PoVerTY seventh United Nations Secretary General, to state that “good governance is perhaps the adequate nutrition and with the fundamental right of each and every most crucial factor to eradicate poverty and to promote development.” person to be free from hunger.”1 This statement by the Heads of Government on the occasion of the 1996 Rome World Food Summit is still considered today the fil rouge of global governance in terms of access to food. Even more significant is the recognition of the central role of nutrition as a funda- mental human right, probably for its longstanding historical context. Art. 25 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948, states that “each individual has the right to an adequate standard of living for his and his family’s health and wellbeing, 50 including nutrition.” 51 This shows that Heads of State have always acknowledged the importance of access The heaDS of to food but, in the current context of political and economic instability, this pervasive STaTe haVe alWaYS phenomenon is running the risk of being downgraded to a minor issue. Consequently, aCknoWleDGeD The iMPorTanCe of aCCeSS it is extremely important for countries’ agendas to recognize that the 925 million mal- To fooD nourished people in the world need immediate help and that this can only be provided through policies geared to future sustainability. In fact, on the whole, management policies seem to have failed in the attempt to contain on The Whole, the negative impact of the crisis on a global level. A case in point is the inability to man- ManaGeMenT PoliCieS age, at the international level, the abrupt spikes in agricultural commodity prices, as SeeM To haVe faileD in The aTTeMPT To ConTain The happened in 2006-2008 and as is still happening. neGaTiVe iMPaCT of The Unfortunately, notwithstanding the innumerable public statements claiming that ac- CriSiS aT The GloBal leVel cess to food is one of the most disquieting global challenges today, adequate policies to contain and to drastically reduce this plight have not yet been identified. In fact, food governance does not always give priority to the access to the natural, public and finan- cial resources needed to allow people to adequately feed themselves and their families (with dignity). Considering the numerous subjects involved (countries, institutions, organizations etc.), as well as the complex interactions among them, it is not possible to conduct a detailed analysis of all the current positions and proposals here. In fact, the following paragraphs only focus on the guidelines, the models and the positions of some of the most important actors in the field of food security global governance and the statements and the results of some of the most relevant and recent summits and international con- ferences on this theme. Willis D. Vaughn/National Geographic Image Collection However, it is important to recall the three universally recognized pillars of governance:
- 28. Geopolitics of the global food crisis: relevant variables it is possible to identify at least six rel- acterized by an increase in unpredict- that the recent trends of the afore- strategic superiority factor, like energy evant variables in terms of food secu- able weather conditions which make it mentioned variables and the global food and defense. The price of commodities rity, which today – and even more so more difficult to plan harvests and ex- crisis have led to a radical change in the and the relative dependence of some in the future – will have an impact on port quotas. virtual value of food products. countries have led governments to international geopolitical equilibriums. 4. a further critical element, which con- as already mentioned in the previous strengthen their exclusive sovereignty These factors have already been exten- tributes to increasing the strategic role chapter, food is once again becoming a in the food sector. sively discussed in the previous chapter. of agricultural productions, is oil prices Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook But here they are briefly investigated, es- and, more in general, the great global pecially in terms of their possible food se- energy challenges. There are at least curity, political and governance implications. two aspects to be highlighted in con- 1. first of all, in the field of food security nection with the effects of the fluctua- – defined as security in terms of produc- tions of crude oil on the agricultural tion and supply of staple foods – a new market: on the one hand, there has and broader geostrategic role is claimed been an increase in the costs of trans- by emerging powers such as india, Chi- portation and logistics for trading food na, Brazil, russia, saudi arabia, nigeria, and in the sale price of fertilizers; on the south africa and south korea because other, major foodstuff-importing coun- 52 53 of their population and gdp perfor- tries – which are also oil importers – will mance. first of all, these countries are have a growing “energy bill.” consumer markets, characterized by the 5. another – and still controversial – im- advent of a middle class with changing pact on food security derives from the diets and habits. it has been estimated development of the market of biofuels that by 2020, the population in these (bioethanol, biodiesel, rapeseed, palm areas of the world will grow by 40% and oil and other fuels). The possibility to most of them will consume meat, milk have a clean energy source to replace and bread rather than rice. however, fossil fuels has undoubtedly great ap- these countries still have a very frag- peal. fragile countries and weak econo- mented agricultural sector, with small, mies are, in fact, trying to undertake local, farm producers. the risky business of commodities crops 2. from the economic point of view, for the production of biofuels, an in- social and demographic changes often vestment which is mainly stimulated by result in the attempt by governments sovereign funds. to strengthen domestic production, to 6. finally, there is the non-negligible support the economy and to reduce land grab phenomenon, which can be their dependence on foreign supplies. considered a great opportunity for de- This objective is being pursued by rais- velopment but which - without a regu- ing duties and non-tariff barriers to im- latory framework and without adequate ports, and by providing high subsidies political and administrative governance to the national agricultural sector. - runs the risk of becoming what the 3. another impact on food security fao secretary general Jacques diouf comes from the current climate chang- called “neo-colonialism.” es (see the section in Chapter 4), char- in the end, it is necessary to consider Lynn Johnson/National Geographic Image Collection
- 29. - The investment in food aid and in the food security networks to the benefit of the most 3.1.2 The decisions adopted by the Committee on World food Se- needy individuals; curity (CfS) – 36th edition - The increase in agricultural investments2 and the promotion of development policies; - Different International trade policies between developed and developing countries. The Committee on World Food Security convened its 36th session in the first half of a reforM WaS aDoPTeD WiTh October 2010 at the FAO in Rome. The meeting was organized to intervene and de- The aiM of BeCoMinG The cide on key issues linked to food security and nutrition, such as land ownership and BuilDinG BloCk of aGriCulTure 3.1.1 The twin track approach and the right to food anD fooD SeCuriTY GloBal international investments in the agricultural sector, the volatility of food prices and GoVernanCe in the context of food security global governance: the strategies to deal with the theme of food insecurity in cases of prolonged crises. the fao’s position and proposals This meeting led the foundations for a reform designed to become the building block of agriculture and food security global governance. The Committee welcomed the re- in orDer To reaCh The upward trend in malnutrition in the world and the numerous threats and chal- sults of the three round tables on the following subjects: The firST MillenniuM lenges for global food security suggest that in order to reach the first Millennium De- DeVeloPMenT GoalS anD velopment Goals (MDG)3 and the ones of the World Food Summit,4 concrete actions 1. “Dealing with the issue of food insecurity during a prolonged crisis: problems and The oneS of The and majors efforts are necessary at the global level. challenges;” WorlD fooD SuMMiT, In order to deal with these challenges, governments will have to adopt a twin-track 2. “Land ownership and international investments in the agricultural sector;” ConCreTe aCTionS Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook anD MajorS efforTS approach, which should be exhaustive and consistent in defining and implementing 3. “Management of vulnerability and of the risk of promoting food security and a bet- are neCeSSarY aT The food security and poverty reduction policies. This approach is expected to include: ter nutrition.” GloBal leVel - Measures designed to increase agricultural production, especially by small farms; - Measures to carefully develop social security and protection networks for the weakest And on these three themes9 the Committee undertook the following commitments: segments of society in terms of food security. GoVernMenTS Will haVe The institutional context of each country – with its organizations and institutions and 1. Examine possible future steps to deal with food security in countries beset by pro- To folloW an aPProaCh their relative powers and interests, as well as the formal and informal rules governing longed crises caused by conflicts or natural catastrophes and gather, if possible, a inCluDinG MeaSureS the interactions among the stakeholders – will define how these two tracks are to be high-level expert panel to define an action plan for the group of countries in situ- DeSiGneD To inCreaSe implemented. ations of prolonged crises; adopt the crucial decision to promote access to food as aGriCulTural ProDuCTion 54 The FAO5 said that the failed attempt to successfully reduce hunger has been mainly the future pillar of agriculture and food security global governance, on the basis of a 55 anD alSo To CarefullY DeVeloP SoCial SeCuriTY caused by the failure of food security global governance: fragile institutions, the lack consultation process to draft the first version of the Global Strategic Framework for anD ProTeCTion of effective coordination and of strong participation on a global, regional and national Food Security and Nutrition (GSF) by October 2012 and to regularly adjust it on the neTWorkS level actually hamper the implementation of sound food security plans. basis of CFS recommendations and decisions. This will be a global strategic frame- Moreover, according to the FAO, the human right to food6 and its principles, espe- work for food and nutrition security designed to better coordinate the international cially the ones related to responsibility, good governance, participation and to secure efforts in the fight against hunger on the basis of the suggestions received from the and sound institutions, can be the reference framework for coalitions and alliances, so countries and the stakeholders worst hit by the crisis. as to give voice to a broad range of stakeholders and to involve even the most vulner- 2. “Encourage the continuous development of the Voluntary Guidelines on Responsi- able groups. ble Governance of Tenure of Land and Other Natural Resource” to promote inter- onCe STaTeD ThaT fooD iS a Once stated that food is a fundamental human right, individuals should have the pos- national investments in the field of agriculture and the fight against the land grab funDaMenTal huMan riGhT, sibility to claim their rights phenomenon; inDiViDualS ShoulD haVe The Once stated that food is a fundamental human right, individuals should have the pos- 3. Ask its panel of international experts to evaluate and formulate recommendations PoSSiBiliTY To ClaiM Their sibility to identify the responsibilities of their governments and, possibly, to claim on the causes and consequences of food price volatility (including market distor- riGhTS their rights. This can improve the action of individual governments, thus ensuring tions and the relationship with the financial markets) and to identify adequate that the measures defined in the first and in the second track be effectively and suc- and consistent policies, actions, instruments and institutions in general in order to: cessfully implemented. manage the risks related to the hyper-volatility of prices in the agricultural sector; That is why, according to the FAO, the right to food will represent the third funda- protect the access to food of vulnerable nations and populations when volatility mental track and “the guidelines on the right to food”7 – unanimously adopted by the provokes market distortions; reduce this volatility through social and production FAO member states in 2004 – already provide a conceptual reference framework at security programs; and review the evaluations of the effects of climate change on the global, regional and national level.8 food security and nutrition. Finally, the Committee acknowledged the relevance of the following points raised during the discussion: 1. Food security and nutrition are horizontal issues which require a multidisciplinary
- 30. multistakeholder framework at the national and regional level; for the weakest groups and to ensure access to humanitarian aid (March 2011 for 2. The regional initiatives add value and provide support to the national efforts in deal- the preliminary report; June 2011 for the final one). ing with the issue of food insecurity and malnutrition; - These Agencies shall also promote tenders for small producers and foster their mar- 3. Regional and interregional cooperation is a useful tool for sharing knowledge and ket access, in line with national and regional strategies (mediumterm). bestpractices; - Finally, the G20 representatives shall encourage all countries and companies to sup- 4. It is crucial to raise the resources needed to make the regional context operational. port the Responsible Agricultural Investment principles. As a result, UNCTAD, the World Bank, IFAD, the FAO and other international organizations shall promote responsible investments in the agricultural sector (March 2011 for the preliminary 3.1.3 The food security action plan launched by the G20 in Seoul report; June 2011 for the final one)10. The G20 SuMMiT in The recent G20 summit in Seoul reiterated the central theme of food security, stating To conclude, the G20 representatives accepted the Rome principles, which are de- Seoul reiTeraTeD The that it is one of the nine “fundamental pillars” defined by the G20 for which urgent signed to make policies more consistent on a global level and to mitigate risks in CenTral role of fooD actions and reforms are needed in order to guarantee sustainable economic growth terms of sustainability of agricultural production, access to food, nutrition and crisis SeCuriTY and a recovery in developing and low-income countries. prevention. On this occasion, the G20 representatives stressed the need for more investments and Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook greater financial support for agricultural development through the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), but not only. In fact, they appealed to the pri- 3.1.4 Guidelines proposed during the 2010 united nations Pri- vate sector, because its financial support plays a strategic and important role in the vate Sector forum on the Millennium Development Goals fight against hunger in the world. The following is a list of medium-term actions approved by the G20: The food security issue was discussed during the 2010 United Nations Private Sector Forum on the Millennium Development Goals, which was held in New York on Sep- Action 1: Adoption of more consistent and coordinated policies: tember 22, 2010. - In order to strengthen the current research systems in the agricultural sector, the During the Conference, extremely relevant issues were debated for reducing poverty fooD-ProDuCinG FAO and the World Bank shall examine and suggest result-based mechanisms by and hunger in the world. In fact, the Forum focused on the importance of the private CoMPanieS anD farMS haVe 56 March 2011, such as the ones analyzed by the Consultative Group on International sector in stimulating economic growth and employment and, thus, the wellbeing of ProViDeD a BroaDer ranGe 57 of loWCoST Agricultural Research (CGIAR). countries, to which nutrition is closely related. anD hiGh-qualiTY fooD To - Countries shall definitely implement the commitments already undertaken in the As already pointed out, food-producing companies and farms have provided a wider Poor ConSuMerS field of food security and sustainable agricultural development; the G20 commit- range of low-cost and high-quality products to poor consumers. In fact, with adequate ments shall be verified and analyzed, asking the FAO, the World Bank and the OECD incentives, the private sector can make effective and sustainable investments; it can – in collaboration with L’Aquila Food Security Initiative (AFSI) – to monitor their provide unique knowhow and major innovative solutions to contribute to eradicating progress and to report the results to the Summit to be held in France (March 2011 hunger. for the preliminary report; June 2011 for the final one). The private sector often cannot fully capitalize on the many possible opportunities ofTen, The PriVaTe - Important international organizations – including the UN Committee on World to combat poverty and improve food security. In fact, most poor farmers are not yet SeCTor CannoT fullY Food Security (CFS) – shall identify the possible gaps to be filled and the oppor- able to buy raw materials and the technologies needed to carry out their activity at CaPiTalize on The ManY tunities to be seized so as to make food security policies more consistent, also in affordable prices.11 PoSSiBle oPPorTuniTieS To CoMBaT line with the Rome Principles. The work is expected to enhance the potential of the And this is the reason why it is important to stress the strategic importance of funding PoVerTY anD iMProVe agricultural sector so as to promote sustainable economic growth and the reduction the private sector, in particular food-producing farms – and the key role of collabora- fooD SeCuriTY of poverty, by strengthening the commitment of the private sector (March 2011 for tion between the public sector and the private sector in the fight against hunger. the preliminary report; June 2011 for the final one). To conclude, these are the following solutions proposed to reduce hunger in the world: - Explore new public-private partnerships and business models so as to extend the Action 2: Reduction of price volatility risks and greater protection of the most vulner- supply-chain, to create jobs and income for low-income populations in various sec- able segments of society: tors, especially in the fields of agriculture and nutrition; - The FAO, IFAD, the IMF, the OECD, UNCTAD, the WFP, the World Bank and the - Strengthen the capacity and the output of small farmers, thus allowing them to ac- WTO shall work together with other stakeholders to propose strategies designed to cess market opportunities at the local, national and global level; reduce and manage food and agricultural price volatility without market distortions. - Implement further effective and innovative actions. The ultimate goal of these strategies shall be the protection of the most vulnerable countries and subjects. The World Bank shall work with other ad-hoc international agencies so as to develop measures to improve information on national and regional food stocks and food production projections, to conduct nutritional interventions
- 31. 3.1.5 non-distortive measures to support agriculture: the pro- be acknowledged which family agriculture plays to ensure food security, to fight against posals of the high level expert forum poverty and to promote economic and social development in Africa; that land laws be adopted which explicitly protect small farmers and vulnerable groups (women, young in orDer To enSure In order to ensure access to food for all, it is necessary not only to invest to improve agri- people and minorities); that technologies be developed for the sustainable management aCCeSS To fooD for cultural production, but also to design an adequate system of incentives for agriculture, of natural resources, the protection of the environment and biodiversity; and that pro- all, iT iS iMPorTanT To both for developed and for developing countries. At the same time, it is crucial to mini- ducers be prepared to effectively adjust to climate changes. DeSiGn an aDequaTe mize their distortive effects, which can be extremely negative for the poorest countries As to world governance in the field of agriculture, the members of the African farmers’ SYSTeM of inCenTiVeS for aGriCulTure and for the weakest segments of the population in the world. organizations do not believe that it is necessary to set up new ad hoc institutions, but they Over the years, with the diminishing role of the primary sector, developed countries (the think that governance should be designed and implemented within the framework of the United States and the European Union, in particular) have introduced a series of support United Nations, with a greater participation of professional agricultural organizations. measures for agriculture in order to stimulate domestic production. These measures have Finally, it is important to increase investments for small farmers and small family-based made it possible to increase the profitability of domestic agriculture, limiting its variabil- farms and, consequently, for their professional organizations. ity and protecting it, for example, from the effects of adverse natural events. Another major but less-renowned actor which conducts a daily fight for the right to food anoTher Major aCTor in However, these policies can create major distortions on the international agricultural in African countries is the African Network on the Right to Food (ANoRF). ANoRF is a The fiGhT for The riGhT To markets (for example by decreasing prices and reducing the demand for imports), thus pan-African network founded in July 2008 in Cotonou, Benin, whose mission is to rep- fooD in afriCan CounTrieS Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook iS The afriCan neTWork on creating longterm economic disincentives for agriculture in developing countries. resent Africa in the fight for a world that is free from hunger and to promote and protect The riGhT To fooD (anorf) iT iS CruCial To ProViDe At the same time, it is crucial to provide incentives to agriculture in developing countries the right to adequate nutrition in the African continent. inCenTiVeS in The fielD because agricultural development plays a central role in the framework of economic de- In order to attain t his goal, i.e. freeing Africa from hunger, ANoRF identifies a series of aGriCulTure in velopment. The need to avoid distortive effects is seen at the level of the current debate of concrete objectives and actions, with the following guidelines for the activity of the DeVeloPinG CounTrieS, on decoupled support, that is, agricultural policy measures which have a more limited network: alThouGh TheSe impact on sowing and production decisions. The shift from direct agricultural support - Inform decision-makers and communities on economic, social and cultural rights, in PoliCieS Can CreaTe STronG DiSTorTionS to decouple support measures has led to a greater variability in farmers’ revenues. In particular the right to adequate nutrition and the obligations stemming from this; on The inTernaTional order to counteract this adverse effect, public and private insurance policies have been - Support and strengthen the power of decision-makers and communities so as to en- aGriCulTural MarkeTS designed which, however, may have distortive effects. For this reason, these insurance force the right to adequate nutrition. 58 policies must be designed in a more sophisticated way and they have to be linked to less Instead, from a very practical point of view, ANoRF manages the activities of the national 59 distortive instruments, such as modern financial risk management instruments.12 coalitions present in each member state to harmonize their work. In fact, these coali- A second economic governance area is international trade policies, whose effects tions gather civil society and farmers’ organizations which fight to promote the right to differ depending on whether they are implemented by developing countries or by adequate nutrition and to implement regional action plans. developed countries. Some distortive policies are tariff and/or non-tariff barriers and export subsidies. Although protectionist measures are sometimes necessary to support other domestic ag- ricultural policies, their abuse may be detrimental. Finally, as already pointed out, safety nets for small farmers are fundamentally important to limit the vulnerability of the weakest segments of society. 3.1.6 agricultural policies and food crises in africa: the point of view of farmers’ organizations and of the african network on the right to food The four afriCan reGional The joint Declaration13 on the status of African agriculture by the four regional networks of farMerS’ orGanizaTionS African farmers’ organizations (EAFF, PROPAC, ROPPA, UMAGRI)14 reads that poverty, de- aSk for The reCoGniTion of pendence and food insecurity are already very significant in Africa, and they may exacerbate, The riGhT of eaCh CounTrY following uncontrolled liberalization and a considerable opening up of their agricultural and To aDoPT aGriCulTural anD CoMMerCial PoliCieS food markets, as envisaged in the WTO agreements and in the economic partnerships promo- GeareD ToWarD fooD ted by the European Union. SoVereiGnTY For this reason, these organizations ask that the right of each country be recognized to adopt agricultural and commercial policies in order to reach food sovereignty and to meet their food requirements through regional products. They ask that the major role
- 32. 3.2 The inSTruMenTS To oPTiMize figure 3.1. Global aid by type, 1999-2009 (tons of food) GoVernanCe aCTionS in The fielD of fooD SeCuriTY 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 T hese considerations emphasize that political actions and public interventions 3,000,000 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook must support the role of the market, seen as the space where private (and public) 2,000,000 supply and demand for goods and services meet and as a point of equilibrium of different needs. 1,000,000 Unlike other commodities, raw materials and agricultural products do not have a single regulated market at the global level. In fact, there are many regional/local markets regu- 0 lated by supply and demand, stock levels, agricultural productivity and different trade 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 policies. Often, this fragmentation does not allow for controlling pricing and access/distribution mechanisms, or for adopting viable solutions at the international level. emergencies programs projects 60 GooD GoVernanCe Given the fact that good governance actions are not meant to replace market policies, but 61 source: un – world food programme, march 2011. aCTionS are noT MeanT to ensure that the market works properly, it is important to mention the instruments that To rePlaCe MarkeT are able to accelerate the economic and social development of developing countries. In PoliCieS, BuT TheY are figure 3.2. ratio of stocks vs. consumption of agricultural products, 1969-2009 (%) fact, these instruments can be used to reduce the number of malnourished people, but DeSiGneD To enSure ThaT The MarkeT they are not consistently utilized at the global level. 45% WorkS ProPerlY The first instrument is support to ensure and optimize political and institutional govern- ance in developing countries, which are not always ruled according to the principles 40% governing the political life of Western democracies. In fact, there are numerous cases of 35% dictatorship and kleptocracy. Some specific problems require targeted measures. But, in general, supranational organizations should support knowledge and knowhow transfers 30% to optimize political governance and to identify the areas and the processes which de- 25% serve structural reforms and changes. Governments (especially in developing countries) should be adequately supported so that they adopt a series of actions, reforms and be- 20% havior with a unitary and systemic approach, with stringent control of corruption and of 15% market dominant and distortive positions. This is one of the best instruments for dealing with the issue of malnutrition. 10% Another tool successfully utilized by international institutions is Food Aid. This is hu- 5% manitarian aid in the form of cash flow and food to support the Food Assistance Programs for poor countries. Humanitarian aid started in the second half of the last century and 0 was adopted at the institutional level by the United States and Canada in 1954. A consist- 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 ent approach to food aid at the international level was adopted only in the early ‘70s with the launch of the United Nations World Food Programme, today the main aid program. grain rice unforTunaTelY, ToDaY Unfortunately, today Food Aid is no longer so widely used. In fact, if in 1988 global aid fooD aiD iS no lonGer – the sum of all the actions to deal with emergencies and aid programs and projects – source: The european house-ambrosetti work on the data from united states department of agriculture, foreign agri- So WiDelY uSeD amounted to about 14 billion tons of distributed food, in 2008 this amount was reduced cultural service, 2011.
- 33. 3.3 ConCluSiVe ConSiDeraTionS: to 6.2 billion tons and in 2009 (the last available data) it was further reduced to 5.5 bil- lion tons. The quantitative decrease in the use of this type of aid in the last 10 years is really very disquieting: in fact, the overall amount of the three types of aid mentioned above dropped by 62.5% since 1999. ChallenGeS anD PoSSiBle There are many reasons for this decrease. The main one is linked to the global eco- nomic crisis which, in the last few years, has adversely affected major economies from reSPonSeS the financial point of view. In particular, the crisis has significantly hit the United States and the European Union member countries, which together account for 77% of total donations.15 There are diverging opinions on the efficacy of Food Aid, and the same applies to criti- cisms against them. Actually, these instruments are highly useful in the short- and medi- um-term, provided they do not lead to dependency on the part of the recipient countries. PoVerTY CannoT Be It is important to remember that poverty cannot be eradicated by merely donating money eraDiCaTeD BY MerelY and food, but by creating the conditions for economic and social development. i DonaTinG MoneY anD A further aspect to be carefully considered by policy makers is how to manage cereal stocks. f the international community is not able to find effective food security governance The inTernaTional Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook fooD, BuT BY CreaTinG The CoMMuniTY Will haVe To finD In fact, while up to the ‘70s, there were organizations of private raw material producers solutions and to intervene with new instruments, the current population trends and ConDiTionS for eConoMiC effeCTiVe fooD SeCuriTY anD SoCial DeVeloPMenT that could ensure market and pricing regulation through compulsory stocks for all mem- the rate of climate change run the risk of exacerbating the food crisis in the next few GoVernanCe SoluTionS anD bers, in the ‘90s the decrease in agricultural prices due to globalization led many produc- years and the development goals defined by the United Nations will not be achieved. To inTerVene WiTh neW ers to leave these organizations, in part to avoid stocking food and agricultural products The main challenge facing policy makers will be the trade-off between economic devel- inSTruMenTS, WiTh reSPeCT with constantly decreasing prices (in real terms). The system became “deregulated” in opment, environmental protection and food security and between local, national and To The PaST a natural way, without replacing these private organizations with an official system of international interests. governance. This was also due to the lack of interest in this sector at the international By capitalizing on the results of the latest international summits and on the on-going SoMe reCoMMenDaTionS level, considered to be mature and not very important from the political and economic debate at the global level, the recommendations to strengthen global food security gov- To STrenGThen standpoint. All this has resulted in the current inadequate stock management situation. ernance can be summarized as follows: GloBal fooD SeCuriTY 62 GoVernanCe 63 As shown in graph 3.2, 2008 was the year with the lowest level of stocks since the ‘60s. – Promote technology investments to maximize potential in terms of agricultural pro- Finally, perhaps the most adequate instrument is the recourse to regulations and direc- duction, water conservation, the fight against overconsumption and prevention of wa- tives in the agricultural sector because of their political and legislative relevance. In this ter table pollution. Promote the use of new technologies in the field of agriculture to way, governments can actually influence market policies and their structure by support- save water and to rationalize the “drop per product” coefficient;” ing prices and farmers. – Expand the crop capacity of land which is not cultivated because of lack of short-term economic objectives. In Cameroun, for example, 40% of the land is left uncultivated, notwithstanding its good condition and a very high unemployment rate; – Promote the transfer of scientific knowledge and of “good practices” to small farm- ers, as well, through organizations that may act as links between research centers and farmers; – Draft a stringent international code of conduct and scientific research which should not go beyond the limits of shared ethical principles for the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs), as proposed by the FAO; – Foster a concrete, realistic and feasible commitment to fight against climate change; FOTO DA INSERIRE – Launch food education policies to allow for gradual shifts in dietary and consumption habits in emerging countries and to limit dietary habits with a strong impact on the environment in industrialized countries; – Review the system of subsidies and trade barriers in order to go beyond the short-term perspective, according to which, supporting an economic sector jeopardizes the sub- sistence of millions of people; – Encourage cross-boundary technical cooperation to avoid future wars to control wa- ter courses; - Introduce mechanisms which are able to better supervise the markets of agricultural commodity derivatives in order to limit speculation. Ed Kashi/National Geographic Image Collection
- 34. Jodi Cobb/National Geographic Image Collection 64 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook and ClimaTe Change 4. naTural resourCes
- 35. 4.1 naTural reSourCeS 4.1.1 risks related to shrinking croplands and land use competition anD fooD ProDuCTion Over the last five decades, the increase in agricultural commodity production was ob- tained by pushing productivity up (about 78% on the whole), which in turn was made The eXPanSion of Grain CroPlanD MaY oCCur possible by the use of fertilizers and irrigation, by the expansion of arable land (15%) To The DeTriMenT of BioDiVerSiTY and by increasing crop density (7%)3. An increase in crop yield is necessary to meet future food requirements. However, only part of these needs will be met using past agricultural practices (fertilizers and better irrigation) and the expansion of land destined to grain crops may occur to the detri- ment of biodiversity. Out of 13.5 billion hectares in the world, at present about 8.3 billion (61%) are ear- marked for grazing and woodland, while only 1.6 billion are allocated for agriculture.4 Another two billion hectares are considered to be suited for irrigated crops (figures 4.1 and 4.2), but they are mainly covered by woods, swamps and plants that are important n naTural reSourCeS atural resources – soil, water, air, energy sources, climate, biodiversity – are for the preservation of biodiversity and for the absorption of CO2. Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook are eSSenTial for fooD essential for food production, rural development and sustainable growth. In sum, although 90% of the future growth in agricultural production is expected to ProDuCTion, rural As pointed out in the previous chapters, the current profound, structural trans- derive from the increase in crop yields and from greater crop intensity, in order to meet DeVeloPMenT anD formations (population growth, economic development, increase in energy demand, global food requirements, croplands will have to be expanded in the next few years by SuSTainaBle GroWTh urbanization etc.) call for attaching greater importance to the systematic management about 120 million hectares in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa of natural resources. In fact, there is mounting pressure on natural resources in differ- and in Latin America. In Asia, further increases will not be possible because about 95% ent regions of the world and growing concern as to how to use them more efficiently, of potential cropland has already been used. how to preserve them and how to limit the negative effects of economic development. Moreover, it is important to stress that, although there is still sufficient arable land in Competition for exploiting and hoarding scarce and unequally distributed resources the world to increase production, most of these areas are suited only for certain crops generates conflicts, violence and the impoverishment of this common natural heritage. and are located in a limited number of countries.5 66 This situation may become exacerbated by changing crop requirements due to climate In addition, part of this land is exposed to urbanization. In fact, a large number of 67 change, extreme weather conditions and scarce water supply. countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia have already reached or are In the first half of this century, the global demand for food, fodder and fibers is estimated to about to reach their limit of available land. Urban development, industrial develop- almost double,1 while agricultural products are going to be increasingly used not as food but ment and the construction of infrastructures such as railways, roads and bridges have as biofuels. Farmers will be forced to adapt to climate change and to respect natural habitats. all changed the way in which land has been used over time and in some cases they have Thus, they will have to compete with urban dwellers for land and water resources. led to land degradation. Moreover, arable land is expected to become drier and degraded, posing a major chal- On the basis of current growth projections of the urban population,6 the urbanized if The urBan eXPanSion lenge for the agricultural sector, which will be required to produce a higher amount of areas or the ones used for infrastructures are expected to expand from 0.4% of the total oCCurS To The DeTriMenT food on smaller and smaller plots. global amount of land in the year 2000 to 0.7% in 2030, and to 0.9% in 2050 (about of aGriCulTure, BY 2030 aBouT 0.37 Million kM2 of lanD DeGraDaTion anD In fact, it has been estimated that, without incisive corrective actions, land degradation and 1.2 million km2). The ratio of “built-up” areas vs. croplands was 3.5% in the year 2000, lanD Will no lonGer Be ChanGe in iTS uSe MaY change in its use may lead to a reduction in the amount of arable land by 8-20% by 2050. In while it is expected to reach 5.1% by 2030 and 7% by 2050. Which means that if urban uSeD for CroPS leaD To a reDuCTion in addition, the joint effects of lack of water, climate change and pest infestations may reduce expansion occurs to the detriment of agriculture, about 0.37 million km2 of land will no The aMounT of araBle the current production by another 5-25%.2 However, this is only one aspect of this multifa- longer be used for crops by 2030 and another 0.30 million km2 by 2050. lanD BY 8-20% BY 2050 ceted issue; the indirect effects – social and economic repercussions – may be even stronger. The more limited availability of arable land will have an impact on the incomeproducing capacity of rural populations in countries whose economic sustainability is based on food ex- 4.1.2 Biofuels: an opportunity or a threat? ports. Moreover, the increasing spread of diseases and contamination of agricultural products jeopardizes the security of the whole food chain and the health of individuals. In addition to urbanization, world food production will also compete against the bio- The second part of this chapter focuses on the main challenges/threats that will have to fuel market,7 “which may change the fundamental trends of the world agricultural be dealt with in the next decades, in order to protect agricultural productivity and meet market,”8 considering that projections indicate an increase in production by about 90% the food requirements of a growing global population. These challenges/threats are: over the next 10 years. 1. Risks related to shrinking croplands and land use competition; Biofuels have been in the limelight for some time now, raising the attention of econo- 2. New global biofuel-oriented policies; mists, the media and institutions. Because of the high price of oil and of the potential 3. Land degradation; environmental benefits which derive from the replacement of traditional fuels (gaso- 4. Land grab. line and diesel oil), the production of and the demand for biofuels has rapidly grown in
- 36. figure 4.1. increase in production obtained by raising yields and cropland expansion for figure 4.3. Projections up to 2030 of the components expected to obtain higher some main agricultural commodities yields 0 25 50 75 100% all developing countries SoYBeanS 4% south asia east asia 3% near east/north africa latin america and the Caribbean 2% WheaT sub-saharan africa CoTTon riCe Maize 1% rainfed crop production Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook (all developing countries) irrigated crop production 0 (all developing countries) area increase yield growth yield increases arable land increased cropping expansion intensity figure 4.2. increase in agricultural production as a percentage of the determining 68 factor, by geographical macro areas 69 figure 4.4. Theoretical potential expansion of grain croplands, without considering the preservation of the natural environment 0 25% 50% 75% 100% all developing Countries area (million ha) latin america and sub-saharan the Caribbean africa south asia 1000 industrial countries east asia arable land near east/north africa 800 latin america and the Caribbean land suitable for rainfed crops Transition 600 countries sub-saharan africa east asia 400 south asia rest of the world 200 near east/north africa increased Cropping yield increases arable land expansion intensity 0 source: world Bank, 2009; fao, 2006. source: unep, The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009.
- 37. the last two decades. While in 2005, they accounted for 1% of transportation fuels, by figure 4.5. Production of ethanol and biodiesel 2050 they are estimated to account for 25% of the global fuel market.9 It is even more significant to look at the daily production of biofuels: in fact, in 2005, their production reached 661.5 thousand barrels per day, vs. 1,635.5 in 2009.10 This means that in the 1800 last five years their production has increased by 147.2%. 1600 It is worth recalling that, within the framework of recent Community energy policy 1400 (the so-called “20-20-20” strategy), the European Commission has committed itself to replacing 10% of the fossil fuel demand in the sector of transportation by providing tax 1200 incentives and subsidies in order to obtain this result. Incentives and specific policies 1000 have also been adopted by countries such as the United States and Brazil, the main biofuel producers and consumers. Brazil, which is currently the second world producer 800 of biofuels, uses about 2.7 million hectares of land (4.5% of its arable land) to produce 600 sugar cane11. 400 In this connection, it is worth asking what impact these new biofuel-oriented poli- cies will have on food security. The use of crops – such as maize, sugar, seed and palm 200 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook oil – other than for the production of food has put significant pressure on the price of 0 agricultural products, thus reducing their availability for traditional uses. Moreover, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 the conversion of land for the production of biofuels and the exploitation of water resources often occur to the detriment of other food productions, with consequences ethanol Biodiesel also in terms of pricing.12 The GroWinG DeManD In addition, the increase in agricultural commodity prices has more or less deleterious figure 4.6. The main biofuel producers in 2009 for BiofuelS MaY Be effects on countries, depending on whether they are net importers or exporters. Some an oPPorTuniTY for countries will benefit from all this, but the least developed nations – that have had a DeVeloPinG CounTrieS trade deficit for two decades - will see a deterioration of their situation.13 70 800 71 However, in the medium- and long-term, the growing demand for biofuels may be an opportunity for developing countries. In fact, the new demand for crops can revamp 700 the agricultural sector; it can generate investments, relaunch exports and have a posi- 600 tive effect in terms of economic growth.14 In fact, the local ecological characteristics of developing countries put them in a privi- 500 leged position for the production of crops to obtain biofuels. If they adequately ex- 400 ploit this opportunity for rural development,15 they may derive significant benefits in 300 terms of income and employment. But they need to implement long-sighted policies designed to protect the overall sustainability of their agricultural systems, even for food 200 production. 100 However, the success of biofuels will depend on the real, long-term production capac- 0 ity, on the ability to match supply and demand, and on the costs associated to less and united states Brazil germany france China argentina Canada less fertile croplands located in tension-ridden areas. It is important to recall that biofuels have become popular mainly for their potential ethanol Biodiesel environmental benefits, if extensively used as fuels in the sector of transportation and for the ability of biofuel crops to absorb CO2 during their growth. But recent studies source: u.s. energy information administration – international energy statistics, march 2011. do not agree on the net benefit that can be obtained. In fact, the balance in terms of greenhouse gases generated/absorbed depends on several factors, such as the produc- tion methodology (the use of fertilizers and the emissions of nitrogen protoxide have Instead, the so-called “second generation” biofuels – obtained from the biomass de- far worse adverse effects in terms of global warming than carbon dioxide emissions), rived from agricultural residues – are believed to be more water friendly because of the techniques used for land conversion (i.e., deforestation) and the type of crops, as their higher productivity per unit of raw material used in the conversion process and well as the extension of the cultivated area (the results of these studies depend on the because of the intrinsic nature of these residues (from maize plants, sugar canes, wal- characteristics of the country investigated). In addition, considering the volume of nuts etc.) that are not utilized for the production of food. A possible large-scale ex- water consumed during their life cycle, biofuels are the energy source with the highest ploitation of these “new” biofuels is still linked to future developments in production impact on water resources. technologies.
- 38. 4.1.3 land degradation Land degradation is a global problem, with severe social, economic, ecological and food security implications. Land degradation is a long-term degenerative process of the function and the productivity of lanD DeGraDaTion the ecosystems.16 Land is impoverished in terms of fertility and it undergoes desertification, iS a lonG-TerM gradual soil erosion, salinization and pollution. The process of soil formation and regenera- DeGeneraTiVe ProCeSS of The funCTion anD tion is very slow. For this reason, land is considered to be essentially a nonrenewable resource. The ProDuCTiViTY of The major causes of land degradation are deforestation, the extraction of nutrients from The eCoSYSTeMS the soil, urbanization, irrigation and pollution. In addition, cropland degradation is mainly caused by poor land management, by intensive land exploitation and by inadequate irrigation techniques.17. figure 4.7. Main land degradation factors: meaning and causes Food Security: Challenges and Outlook lanD DeGraDaTion erosion Salinization Desertification Pollution Breaking down accumulation of salts Transformation of introduction of of the soil due to: in the soil (in parti- land into a desert due inorganic and organic cular sodium chloride to climatic or geologi- pollutants in the soil: natural causes: and sulphates) which cal degeneration: removal of the reduces the ability human activity: 73 topsoil due to the of plants to extract natural causes: fertilizers, pesti- elements, to water nutrients, thus poor temperatu- cides, herbicides, and ice. making it sterile: re and moisture irrigation with conditions. polluted water, Man-made causes: natural causes: the poor discharge of intensive farming, soil loses water due Man-made causes: run-offs, deposit of deforestation, to evaporation and deforestation, fires, polluting materials. intensive animal transpiration inste- intensive exploita- husbandry. ad of percolation. tion. Soil characteristics: typical of arid and semiarid areas; intrusion of sea- water. Abraham Nowitz/National Geographic Image Collection Man-made causes: irrational irrigation practices or use of inadequate water. source: review of data from various sources by The european house-ambrosetti.
- 39. aT PreSenT, lanD Land degradation can result from natural causes or from man-made activities (see Fi- other experts, such as Zafar Adeel, Director of the United Nations University’s (UNU) DeGraDaTion affeCTS gure 4.7). It has direct repercussions on agricultural productivity, biodiversity and also International Network on Water, Environment and Health, who stated: “The political oVer 20% of all climate change.18 Some studies19 have looked into a 20-year period and show that land changes resulting in better land and plant preservation and in degraded land restora- CroPlanDS degradation is consistently evolving and is spreading around the world. At present, land tion are crucial for the future of mankind.” degradation affects over 20% of all croplands, 30% of woodland and 10% of grazing land. According to other researchers,20 every year 20,000-50,000 km2 of land is abandoned because it can no longer be used,21 with losses 2-6 times higher in Africa, Latin America 4.1.4 neo-colonialism: land grabbing and Asia than in North America and Europe. Land degradation mainly affects rural populations which live off farming, that is one-fourth Food security, that is, the supply of staple food, is strongly conditioned by the factors of the world’s population.22 indicated in the previous chapters. The drop in agricultural productivity in some areas Asia has the highest number of people hit by land degradation and desertification. In fact, of the world is linked to negative environmental externalities such as soil dehydration, about 65% of its land is exposed to this plight. Erosion and salinization are the main threats in scarce water resources, climate changes and increasing competition for land use. As a the western part of the continent, with more than 1.5 million km2 affected (one-third of the result, some governments have tried to find alternative solutions to ensure enough agri- region). In the eastern part, in China, the area undergoing desertification accounts for 28% cultural production to meet their food requirements. This has been obtained through the of the whole territory, while land degeneration accounts for 35% of the national territory.23 so-called practice of land grabbing. Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook In Europe, Italy is the country with the greatest variety of agricultural and natural land. But The competition and the race to grab natural resources is often a violent phenomenon. its soils are deteriorating: about 80% of the land is poor in organic carbon and it cannot be Indeed, the FAO General Director Jacques Diouf defined the current practice of land defined as “high-quality” because of the limited content of organic matter and the high risk grabbing a form of “neo-colonialism.” of erosion. In Europe, Italy has the greatest land biodiversity, which is at present 10 times as These practices are not always and are not necessarily negative. In some cases, if there are high as the United Kingdom and two times as high as France or Spain. But Italy risks losing development policies and clear rules of engagement between governments and investors, this diversity: in fact, there is a dwindling number of species of soil microorganisms which they become strategic investments that are extremely necessary in the field of agriculture promote fertility and stability. One of the main threats comes from land consumption, which and in the rural areas of developing countries. This new form of colonialism – when it is is among the fastest in Europe. With 43 million tons of concrete produced in 2008, Italy is a form of colonialism – is mainly due to the fact that the “colonized” countries hope to ranked fourth in the world in terms of the ratio of concrete produced vs. the amount of land develop and modernize their agricultural sector using the technologies, the capitals and 74 exploited for this purpose and it ranks fifth in terms of the amount of concrete produced the fertilizers of foreign investors and they are willing to accept this “invasion.” 75 per inhabitant. This phenomenon is called “impermeabilization” and it has multiple adverse The main concern is related to the impact that land grabbing may have on poor local pop- Poor loCal PoPulaTionS eroSion, effects: large plots of land can no longer be used for agriculture and as natural habitats, and it ulations, who may no longer be able to use their land or control the land on which they run The riSk of loSinG DeSerTifiCaTion anD limits and hampers water percolation and soil water retention, with the risk of flash floods.24 depend for their living. 28 29 Since this relevant phenomenon is growing and seems diffi- aCCeSS anD ConTrol of SalinizaTion haVe It is important to recall that erosion, desertification and salinization have a direct impact cult to fight30 (and it should not be fought in all cases), it is necessary to render its effects lanD BeCauSe of lanD a DireCT iMPaCT on GraBBinG onagricultural yields. In fact, productivity dropped by 50% in certain areas. In Africa – the as positive as possible. To this end, international organizations should impose a code of aGriCulTural YielDS continent most severely hit25 – this loss ranges from 2% to 40%, with an average estimated conduct and binding standards for investors.31 loss of 8.2% calculated over the whole territory. The global repercussions of this plight have caused a productivity drop ranging from 1% to 8%, equal to an annual loss of 400 billion dol- lars,26 i.e., about 70 dollars per person. In Europe, an important economic impact analysis conducted by the European Commission shows that land degradation may cost up to 38 billion Euros per year.27 A sustainable approach to agriculture is known to reduce the adverse effects of this phenomenon, to prevent degradation and to restore the soil conditions, where possi- ble. The best corrective measures are irrigation techniques, reforestation policies and land reclamation. In light of the considerations presented in this chapter, it is possible to say that crop- land degradation is a top priority which requires a novel approach by individuals, com- munities and governments alike. “The degradation of ecosystems can be stopped by political will. It is necessary to change policies, institutions and agricultural practices and to bring agriculture back to center stage, to preserve the environmental equilibrium to the benefit of future generations,” said Alexander Müller, the FAP deputy General Director in 2007. “With- out a radical reversal of this trend, environmental degradation will become a major threat to agricultural productivity and food security.” This opinion is shared by many
- 40. 4.2 CliMaTe ChanGe, naTural DiSaSTerS anD fooD SeCuriTY C CliMaTe ChanGe MaY limate change is another crucial factor in terms of the ability of the global agricul- Food Security: Challenges and Outlook haVe an iMPaCT on tural system to meet the food requirements of a constantly growing population. The aVailaBiliTY, The definition of food security proposed at the beginning of this paper includes The STaBiliTY, The four key dimensions: availability, stability, accessibility and use. Climate change seems to aCCeSSiBiliTY anD The uSe of fooD have an impact on each of these variables. figure 4.8. The potential impacts of climate change on the food security variables 76 CliMaTe ChanGe 1. availability 2. Stability 3. access 4. use impact on the The increase in impact of the gdp impact on the food production system: the frequency and of the agricultural chain security: the ability of the severity of extreme sector on food agricultural system events (cyclones, prices. - crop contamina- to meet food requi- floods, droughts tion from viruses, rements. etc.) will result in impact on the bacteria, fungi, etc. major fluctuations purchasing power direct effects: of agricultural of individuals. - livestock Thomas J. Abercrombie/National Geographic Image Collection Changes in agricul- productivity and of diseases. tural productivity local food availa- (quality of croplan- bility. ds, rainfalls etc.). indirect effects: income growth and distribution; demand for agricul- tural products. source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti, schmidhuber and Tubiello, Global Food Security under Climate Change, 2011.
- 41. 4.2.1 availability: effects of climate change global agricultural production. In this connection, it is worth recalling that the price on agricultural production for not doing anything may be too high, not only for future generations, but for the present one as well. aGriCulTural, foreSTrY Climate change will have complex effects on agriculture and on its ability to produce anD liVeSToCk raiSinG food. It has direct effects on the biophysical processes and on the agricultural and eco- Will Be neGaTiVelY logical conditions of farming, and indirect effects on growth, income distribution and affeCTeD BY CliMaTe the demand for agricultural produce32. figure 4.9. Projected losses of food caused by the adverse effects of climate change ChanGe, noT onlY in TerMS of ProDuCTion The increase in temperature, the changes in seasonal and annual rainfall patterns and (2080) CaPaCiTY anD the increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will affect the land productiv- aGriCulTural YielDS ity potential, the volume and the quality of yields, as well as the natural environment where farming is practiced. Climate change will also have an effect on water supply and will result in the proliferation of plant diseases and pests, thus radically changing productivity. Moreover, man-made activities – especially in the field of agriculture – are generating very negative consequences for the environment and they have to be evaluated as additional adverse effects for the current environmental scenario. Plus, Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook pollution from nitrates and pesticides is one of the most severe causes of water quality deterioration in rural regions and nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus in ferti- lizers seriously damage the marine environment.33 in The loW laTiTuDe As already pointed out,34 in the low latitude areas of the world, where most develop- areaS of The WorlD, ing countries are located, a further increase in temperature will lead to the reduction a furTher inCreaSe in and to a greater volatility of agricultural yields, with major consequences on local food TeMPeraTure Will leaD security. These negative effects will also be exacerbated by more frequent extreme cli- To The reDuCTion of aGriCulTural YielDS mate events. A possible result will be a greater dependence on imports and an increase in the number of people suffering from hunger. 78 Instead, at higher latitudes, productivity is expected to augment. In fact, it has been 79 estimated that there will be an expansion in potential grain croplands, an extension of the vegetative period and an increase in crop yield and variety. However, the current projections do not always consider the risks provoked by extreme events or by pests, which may have a negative impact on local and global agricultural productivity.35 Another important factor expected to have an effect on agricultural yields is the atmos- pheric concentration of CO2. Since this concentration is an input for photosynthesis, a higher carbon concentration is believed to have a positive effect on different crops. But the benefits of this phenomenon called carbon fertilization are still uncertain and will depend on land management techniques, such as irrigation modalities, and the use of -50% -15% 0 +15% +35% no data fertilizers.36 It is also important to consider that increasing yields does not necessarily lead to preserving the characteristics of the land and its nutritional quality. source: Cline, 2007; fao, The environmental food Crisis, 2009. To conclude, it is important to stress that, as a result of climate change, some animal species will be forced to choose among three different options: adaptation, migration or extinction. These adverse consequences of climate change are expected to have a very negative 4.2.2 impact of climate change and of natural disasters on food impact on food accessibility. In fact, climate change affects agricultural production but availability and stability it also has a potential effect on marine and non-marine populations, with dramatic re- percussions on food availability for people whose economy and subsistence is based on The increase in the global and regional climate variability and in the frequency and severity of CliMaTe ChanGe MaY Be fishing37 and hunting. Climate change may provoke a dramatic reversal of bioclimatic “extreme” events (floods, cyclones, droughts) associated with increased risks of landslides and an inSurMounTaBle plans, a variation in the distribution of animal species, an alteration of lifecycles and soil erosion are expected to wreak havoc in the domain of agricultural production in terms oBSTaCle for The a more limited ability of ecosystems to resist against pest-induced diseases. Therefore, of greater volatility in yields and of local availability of food. This will significantly affect the GroWTh of The there is no doubt that in these conditions, agriculture, forestry and livestock raising will stability of production39 and of food security, in general. GloBal aGriCulTural 38 ProDuCTion be heavily affected, not only in terms of production capacity and agricultural yields. In particular, sudden and violent natural disasters are extreme events, with a major impact on Therefore, climate change may be an insurmountable obstacle for the growth of the the stability of agricultural production.
- 42. aDVerSe CliMaTe The FAO/GIEWS40 states that unexpected and violent events – floods, in particular – have sig- 4.2.3 impact of climate change on food accessibility ConDiTionS anD naTural nificantly increased from 14% in the 1980s to 27% since the year 2000. The strong association DiSaSTerS are aMonG between natural disasters and food insecurity is well known. In this context, it is important to As already pointed out, in the last 30 years, the fall in the real prices of food and the growth The firST CauSeS emphasize that these disasters – often caused by climate change – have a heavy impact on the in real incomes has led to a general improvement in food accessibility in many developing of fooD inSeCuriTY in The WorlD distribution of humanitarian aid and on total volume of aid. In fact, climate change is a huge countries. The growing purchasing power has allowed an increasing number of people to cost for the global economy and especially for the most industrialized countries that today have not only more food, but also a more nutritious diet, with more proteins, micronutrients are the main aid donors. The future is characterized by uncertainty and instability, given the and vitamins. concerns and the pessimistic projections related to environmental and food scenarios over Considering the current food market scenario, numerous scientific studies show that climate the next few years and the growing provision of aid in emergency situations shown in Figure change will lead to an increase in the number of people suffering from malnutrition and hun- 3.1, In addition, it may be interesting to screen some information published in a recent report ger, in particular in communities in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which today are already of the FAO, where it is clearly indicated that the 22 countries in the world “in protracted very vulnerable and exposed.43 crisis” received a higher percentage of humanitarian aid than development aid in the 2000- The economic models utilized in the main studies44 have evaluated the impact of climate 2008 period. Among these countries, Korea is an interesting case because it has experienced change on the GDP of the agricultural sector and on food commodity prices. The global im- six natural disasters and three man-made disasters in the last 15 years and it has received an pact of climate change on the GDP in the agricultural sector is expected to be extremely mild, amount of humanitarian aid equal to 47%41 of the total. between -1.5% and +2.6% by 2080. At the regional level, and especially in countries where Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook As shown in Figure 4.10, adverse climate conditions and natural disasters have been among agriculture is the main source of income, the impact will be stronger. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the first causes of food insecurity in the world up until the 1990s. And although man-made for example, without corrective measures, the losses are expected to range from 2% to 8%. disasters have outnumbered natural ones during certain periods of time, they have continued Developing countries, which have contributed less to climate change, will probably bear the DeVeloPinG CounTrieS, to be a serious threat. Since these events hit fast and unexpectedly, these situations are heaviest brunt in terms of food accessibility. Studies of agricultural commodity prices have WhiCh haVe difficult to manage, as are planning and reactions.42 produced the following results: ConTriBuTeD leSS To CliMaTe ChanGe, Will - on average, with a moderate increase in temperature, prices are expected to slightly in- ProBaBlY Bear The crease (up to 2050); heaVieST BrunT figure 4.10. The causes of food emergencies between 1981 and 2007 - after 2050, and due to a further increase in temperatures, prices are expected to experi- in TerMS of fooD ence a more significant upward trend; some commodities (rice and sugar) are expected to aCCeSSiBiliTY 80 81 number of emergencies increase by as much as 80%.45 However, the price fluctuations caused by climate change are likely to be lower than those 70 induced by social and economic development.. 60 4.2.4 impact of climate change on food quality 50 Climate and environmental changes may also lead to a faster spread of diseases and con- taminations in food and agricultural products. This will entail more risks and the need for 40 additional controls over the whole food chain. In conclusion, it is possible to state that climate change will have adverse effects on 30 global food security, increasing the dependence of developing countries on imports and exacerbating the already precarious conditions of the populations living on the African 20 continent, in particular. 10 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 human induced disasters natural disasters Total source fao, 2008.
- 43. The global water crisis 46 figure 4.11. Water used for agricultural purposes in some countries (as a percentage of the total amount used) India Greece Turkey in light of the factors illustrated in the in looking at the disquieting projections 90% 88% 74% previous paragraphs, one of the greatest pointing to a limited availability of water challenges facing mankind is the growing in the future, it is important to stress that competition for water resources and the the world population today already uses expected reduction in its supply. 54% of the fresh water from rivers, lakes at present, irrigated crops use about 70% and accessible water tables. Because of Argentina China Spain Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook of the world’s fresh water. This figure is population growth, by 2025, in order to even higher in low- and medium-income meet future requirements, water con- countries (in some developing countries sumption will increase by 50% in devel- 66% 65% 65% this figure is 95%), while in the advanced oping nations and by 18% in advanced world, water is mainly consumed by the countries. in particular, by 2025 the industrial sector (59%). global food requirements will augment by a survey of water consumption for agri- 55% with respect to 1998. and this will cultural purposes in some sample coun- lead to an increase in water consumption tries confirms that agriculture accounts for irrigation purposes (equal to at least Brazil Italy United States 82 for a higher amount of water consump- 14%). at the same time, water consump- 83 tion. figure 4.11 shows that there are tion will increase, to respond to primary significant differences between the use hygiene-sanitation needs, to produce 55% 44% 40% of water for farming in countries such as energy and to support industrial devel- india or greece, for example, and france opment.48 Therefore, the relationship be- or germany, where water consumption tween water and food security remains for agriculture is equal to 90%-88% and one of the greatest challenges for the to 12%-3%, respectively, of the total con- future of mankind. Considering that 1.2 Russia France Canada sumption of fresh water. billion people already have scarce water The yield of irrigated croplands is 2-3 resources and that this number will reach times higher (about 20% of the world’s over 1.8 billion by 2025,49 an in-depth 20% 12% 12% total grain croplands) and they account analysis is clearly necessary to identify a for 40% of global production47 – with re- truly sustainable economic growth model spect to the ones which only use rainfall to be pursued with intersectoral and in- water (80% of the total amount of land). ternational action plans. Sweden Germany 9% 3% source: review by The european house-ambrosetti on the basis of the fao, aQuasTaT database, 2010 (last available data).
- 44. O. Louis Mazzatenta/National Geographic Image Collection 5. aCCess To food and iTs soCial dimension
- 45. T 5.1 fooD aCCeSSiBiliTY anD he social dimension of the food accessibility issue is mainly characterized by four interconnected domains: 1. human health; 2. population trends; healTh 3. social and political aspects (social conflicts and migration flows); 4. the relationship between supply and demand on the food market. This aspect has already been specifically analyzed in the second chapter. Here, it will be further investigated in terms of health and of population, social and political trends linked to food security and their interconnections. T he relationship between food accessibility and health is very relevant for develop- The hunGer-healTh Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook ing countries beset by chronic and/or acute hunger and malnutrition. First of all, ViCiouS CirCle haS an it is important to stress that this relationship has two dimensions. On the one effeCT on anD iS, in hand, the lack of one or more micro and macronutrients, hunger and malnutrition have Turn, affeCTeD BY nuMerouS SoCial anD effects on the immune system of individuals and on their predisposition to severe and eConoMiC VariaBleS long-term diseases. Moreover, it is associated with other factors such as malnutrition, poor hygiene and sanitation, lack of drinking water and of basic drugs. On the other hand, because of the alteration of normal metabolisms and the loss of nutri- ents, sick individuals lose their appetite and do not have the necessary amount of energy and the ability to uptake food nutrients. This is also linked to a series of other economic 86 and social conditions that exacerbate the relationship between disease and malnutri- 87 tion, such as the inability to work, social and economic marginalization, and inadequate knowledge about nutrition which impairs the ability of mothers to care for their children. All this will have an impact on future generations. The vicious circle between malnutrition and disease – a central issue also within the framework of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – is the result of a series of intercorrelated factors which require multiple and synergic actions. In the past, many development programs were mainly designed to directly fight against disease. At present and in the future, it is necessary to adopt a different approach to disease, based on the analysis, the prevention and the treatment of their direct and indirect causes. Nutrition plays a prominent role in this fight. This vicious circle has an effect on and is, in turn, affected by numerous social and eco- nomic variables such as education, living conditions, food prices, general health condi- tions, and social and economic stability. This renders the reference scenario complex and multifaceted. The variables that are directly or indirectly linked to the hunger-disease relationship WoMen anD show that there are some long-term patterns and trends and some possible short-term ChilDren are shocks and events that are not all “predictable” or “preventable.” The World Food Pro- The MoST affeCTeD GrouPS gramme estimates that out of 100 people suffering from “under- and mal-nutrition,” only 10% of these cases is due to temporary shocks (civil wars, famines, epidemics etc.), while 90% is due to chronic and long-term situations. In the context described above, the most affected subjects are women and children, for two main reasons. The first is that, in general, they have less physical resistance to hunger and disease, children in particular. The second reason is that they have far worse social, Stephen St. John/National Geographic Image Collection juridical and economic conditions in some countries, especially in the developing world.
- 46. MalnuTriTion aCCounTS for 53% of DeaThS These poor social and economic conditions result in a more limited accessibility to food The role of women in the agricultural sector: (and quality food) and in adequate medical treatment and health measures. in ChilDren BeloW According to the United Nations World Food Programme, malnutrition accounts for 53% how to improve access to food? fiVe YearS of aGe in of deaths in children below five years of age in developing countries.1 Moreover, more DeVeloPinG CounTrieS than 70% of the 146 million malnourished children in the world below five years of age live in 10 countries – 50% of which are located in South Asia.2 5,6 million deaths per year in children below five years of age are directly associated with diseases that, with adequate nutrition, would not be life threatening, such as diar- rhea, pneumonia and malaria. It has been estimated that, with more vitamin A and zinc, women could play a fundamental role mainly due to a gap in the availability 684,000 deaths in children could be avoided all over the world3. in improving the results obtained in the of resources. The fao actually states fight against hunger and infant mortal- that if women working in farming had ity. in fact, they play a central role in the same amount of resources as men, figure 5.1. The hunger-health circle child rearing, farming and harvesting. the agricultural production in develop- This is clearly indicated in the report ing countries would increase by 2.5%- hunGer Poor healTh produced by the fao The state of food 4%. This would also lead to a reduction Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook and agriculture 2010-2011 – women in the number of people suffering from DiSeaSeS in agriculture. This publication empha- malnutrition in the world by 12-17%, unDer- anD Mal-nuTriTion - altered metabolism sizes the crucial role women play in the that is by 100-1505 million individuals.6 - stunted growth - lack of macro and micro nutrients - loss of nutrients field of agriculture and rural farming in according to some suggestions on the developing countries. This role varies actions to be adopted to allow women according to the regions but, in general, to play a central role in the fight against - reduction in immune defense - loss of appetite women have to overcome many obsta- hunger and mortality, women should - greater exposure To diseases - more energy requirements cles and this saps their productivity and be: - more severe and long-term diseases - poor uptake of nutrients limits their contribution to agricultural - informed about the risks linked to the production, economic growth and to the use of inadequate or wrong diets, espe- 88 89 wellbeing of their families, communities cially for neonates and children below and countries. The most severe prob- five years of age; DiSeaSeS unDer- anD Mal- lem for women is still their access to - educated as to the techniques and nuTriTion production resources; women have less basic measures to obtain significant ad- source: fao, 2008. control over land with respect to men vantages in terms of agricultural pro- and the land they control is poorer or ductivity in a short period of time; figure 5.2. Main causes of mortality in children below five years of age in the world their ownership is not always certain - adequately informed about basic hy- over time. in addition, according to the giene and sanitation practices; fao, women have a lower number of - given a social and economic status hiv/aids 3% wounds 3% heads of livestock and often they do not that, unfortunately, is still denied to have direct control over the revenues them. measles 4% coming from the management of small notwithstanding some international malaria 8% animals.4 efforts, the actual condition of women There is enough evidence in the fao in developing countries is not yet fully report of the gender gap which exists understood: there is still much to do to others 9% in the field of agriculture. This paper understand and capitalize on the poli- neonatal 37% shows that currently, this production cies designed to educate and involve gap amounts to 20-30% and many women in many difficult social and eco- research studies indicate that this is nomic realities. diarrhea 17% pneumonia 19% source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data of the un world food programme,
- 47. anoTher GrouP ThaT Women and children are the highest risk subjects in the hunger-disease vicious circle, but figure 5.3. Progress in africa in the 1990-2003 period in terms of reduction in the num- iS VerY neGaTiVelY there is another group of people particularly affected by this “plight,” i.e., refugees. Huge ber of under-nourished people affeCTeD BY The masses of people who leave their country of origin because of tragic weather and natural hunGer-DiSeaSe ViCiouS events or because of civil wars or political persecution. They are particularly exposed to CirCle iS refuGeeS the hunger-disease “trap.” Often, their living conditions do not allow them to have enough food, and in particular, quality food. Malnutrition and hunger weaken their bodies and in- The progress obtained in reaching the millennium crease their risk of suffering from diseases. They are subjected to poor hygienic conditions development goal related to under-nutrition (halving ghana in makeshift camps without any basic health prevention measures. In this situation, there the percentage of the under-nourished population by gaBon is a high incidence of disease, even epidemics. 2015 vs. the 1990 figures) is measured by compa- Chad ring the advances made between 1990 and 2003 (% In fact, deaths due to forced migration are not always directly linked to a lack of food. But 2003 - % 1990) and the progress needed to achieve guinea Bissau they are associated with the interaction between infectious diseases and persistent unde- the 2015 target (% 2015 - % 1990). a negative value r. Congo rand mal-nutrition; refugees are forced to live in close contact with a high number of other indicates a regression with respect to 1990, 0 means angola no change, a value between 0 and 0.5% indicates some people, often coming from rural areas. And this exposes them to a wide range of infectious mauriTania progress, but not sufficient, a value above 0.5% shows diseases to which they have not developed an immune defense. The combination of pre- that the country is on the right track, a value equal or namiBia vious conditions of under- and mal-nutrition and the exposure to new diseases generates above 1 indicates that the objective has been achieved moZamBiQue Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook an explosive mix. or exceeded. malawi in orDer To Deal WiTh Therefore, in order to deal with humanitarian crises, it is not sufficient to provide food; it nigeria huManiTarian CriSeS, is also necessary to create the systemic conditions that not only allow for the treatment of Benin iT iS noT SuffiCienT To diseases, but also for the prevention of epidemic infections, which are caused by the lack of lesoTho ProViDe fooD; iT iS eThiopia essential micronutrients necessary for the body and for an acceptable immune defense. The alSo neCeSSarY To Togo CreaTe The SYSTeMiC warnings launched by international organizations, information campaigns and the drama- Cameroun ConDiTionS ThaT noT tic images often coming from countries hit by hunger and epidemics are certainly contri- niger onlY alloW for The buting to raise the awareness of developed countries, and of developing countries beset by CÔTe d’ivoire TreaTMenT of the problems, that action needs to be taken. However, looking at the “state of the art” of the uganda 90 DiSeaSeS, BuT alSo for global fight against hunger and for the promotion of human health, it is necessary to stress 91 The PreVenTion of kenya that, notwithstanding some improvement in health and food accessibility, there are still Burkina faso ePiDeMiC infeCTionS major gaps in industrialized countries and in and across the developing world. Indeed, as rwanda clearly indicated by the United Nations World Food Programme, the situation is characte- C. a. repuBliC rized by major advances in the right direction but also by major stalemates and severe set- mali backs with respect to the already serious conditions existing in the past. ZamBia The MillenniuM In particular, the Millennium Development Goals related to food and health accessibility ZimBaBwe DeVeloPMenT GoalS do not seem to have been fully achieved. Goal 1.C is designed to eradicate extreme poverty senegal relaTeD To fooD anD and hunger and it aims at halving the percentage of individuals who suffer from hunger by mauriTius healTh aCCeSSiBiliTY Do algeria 2015 vs. the 1990 figures. The achievement of this goal is measured on the basis of two noT SeeM To haVe Been eriTrea fullY aChieVeD specific indicators: the number of underweight children below five years of age and the sierra leone percentage of the population with a dietary calorie intake below a minimum level (under- madagasCar nourished). TanZania On the basis of the available data, while some key indicators show some improvements, in gamBia numerous areas of the world – especially in South Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa – the BoTswana situation continues to be extremely bad. swaZiland The onGoinG DelaYS The ongoing delays and setbacks appear to be unjustifiable, both from an ethical and from a Burundi anD SeTBaCkS aPPear To strictly economic standpoint.7 This cannot be considered an exclusively “humanitarian” is- liBeria Be unjuSTifiaBle sue; in fact, the food accessibility-human health vicious circle has a significant impact on the r.d. Congo economic development in the countries most adversely hit by this phenomenon because it generates a negative economic spiral. Fewer workers, lower per capita productivity, more con- -3.00 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.0 1.50 2.00 flicts and social tension, greater difficulties in foreign trade relations - just to mention a few – are direct consequences of the failure to solve the problem of hunger and of general poor health conditions which exacerbate an already critical social and economic scenario. As already mentioned, the achievement of the first Millennium Development Goal – eradica- source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data of the un world food programme, 2007.
- 48. tion of extreme poverty and hunger - is measured on the basis of two specific indicators - as figure 5.5. Mortality rate of children below five years of age out of 1000 births an example, the number of underweight children below five years of age. The following graph (1990-2008)11 clearly shows that countries have very different results in the progress toward this target. Notwithstanding the above-mentioned considerations, it is crucial to focus on the important 180 1990 Sub-saharan africa 129 2008 progress made in the fight against hunger in the world and the commitments undertaken by countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. In fact, a major result has been 122 2015 Target Southern asia 69 obtained within the framework of the fourth Goal, according to recent information published 76 by the United Nations, i.e., the reduction by two-thirds of the mortality rate of children below oceania 59 five years of age between 1990 and 2015. 78 SinCe 1990, The By observing Figure 5.5, the latest statistics8 clearly show that since 1990, the mortality rate CiS asia 37 MorTaliTY raTe of of children below five years of age has dropped by one-third. On a global level, the number of 73 ChilDren BeloW fiVe deaths among children below five years of age has actually dropped from 12.4 million in 1990 South-eastern asia 36 YearS of aGe haS to 8.4 million in 2009. These results are encouraging because – with respect to the ‘90s, when 66 DroPPeD BY one-ThirD Western asia a 1.4% average annual reduction was expected – this figure reached 2.8% in the 2000-2009 31 period.9 However, it is not possible to forget that there are still countries with unacceptable 80 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook northern africa child mortality rates and that, out of the 64 countries with a high child mortality rate, only are 26 well positioned to reach this target.10 52 latin america and the Caribbean MalnuTriTion Can Malnutrition and poor health have a very negative impact on the human and social capital 23 iMPair The eConoMiC of a country and they can impair its economic growth potential forever. This detrimental ef- 45 eastern asia GroWTh PoTenTial of a 19 fect on economic and social development has long-term and intergenerational repercussions, CounTrY foreVer 26 making it impossible for the countries hit by this plight to break this hunger-disease vicious CiS europe 13 circle (see Figure 5.6 to have a 30-year picture of the per capita income gap between G7 and Transition countries of 31 African countries). South-eastern europe 11 12 92 Developed regions 93 6 figure 5.4. MDG: percentage of underweight children below five years of age (indi- cator 1.8) 99 Developing regions 66 60 0 50 100 150 200 source: review by The european house-ambrosetti on the data from The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010, 2011. 50 51 Without economic growth, it is not possible to ensure greater and better food and he- 49 46 alth accessibility for the population, especially if this population is constantly growing 40 in developing nations; the food and health conditions of future generations are bound 1990 2008 to be the same or worse than those of the previous generations, thus descending the 37 35 decade-long spiral of poverty and mortality. In light of these considerations, it is clear 30 that the most correct timeframe to deal with hunger-disease vicious circle is the life- 31 31 27 cycle approach. This analysis is designed to look into the whole life cycle of at least 25 26 two generations. The nutrition and health conditions of future generations are closely 20 related to the ones of the present generation and to the actions that will be implemen- 17 ted in the near future. 14 14 10 12 In this context, a central issue today, but also in the future, is the so-called “hidden hunger” The WorlD fooD 11 11 which, according to the World Food Programme, affects more than two billion people. ProGraMMe eSTiMaTeS 7 6 7 6 “Hidden hunger” means a condition in which, for the same amount of calories, the ThaT The PhenoMenon 0 of “hiDDen hunGer” intake of one or more fundamental micronutrients for the proper functioning of the south asia south asia south-east developing sub- east western east asia north africa latin ame- affeCTS More Than TWo (without regions saharan asia asia (without rica and the human body is dramatically limited. This deficiency can be defined as mal-nutrition Billion PeoPle asia india) africa China) Caribbean rather than undernutrition. It generates functional disorders, as well as stunted growth and, in some cases, very source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data from The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010, 2011. severe psychiatric diseases, especially in younger patients.
- 49. figure 5.6. The per capita GDP in the 1980-2010 period: comparison between figure 5.7. availability of Vitamin a for human consumption in the 2005-2007 period the average figure in Sub-saharan african countries and G7 nations Bangladesh 1 gambia 2 Belgium 3 malta 3 Burkina faso 1 georgia 2 Belize 3 mauritius 3 45.000 Cape verde 1 guatemala 2 Bermuda 3 mexico 3 Central african republic 1 guinea 2 Bosnia and herzegovina 3 morocco 3 40.000 Comoros 1 honduras 2 Brunei darussalam 3 netherlands 3 Côte d’ivoire 1 india 2 Cameroun 3 netherlands antilles 3 35.000 eritrea 1 indonesia 2 Canada 3 new Caledonia 3 ethiopia 1 Jordania 2 Chad 3 new Zealand 3 guinea Bissau 1 kenya 2 Chile 3 norway 3 30.000 haiti 1 laos 2 Croatia 3 pakistan 3 lesotho 1 liberia 2 Cuba 3 perù 3 25.000 madagascar 1 libya 2 Cyprus 3 philippines 3 malawi 1 mauritania 2 Czech republic 3 poland 3 20.000 mali 1 mongolia 2 denimark 3 portugal 3 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook mozambique 1 myanmar 2 dominica 3 republic of korea 3 15.000 nicaragua 1 namibia 2 estonia 3 republic of macedonia 3 niger 1 nepal 2 fiji islands 3 republic of moldova 3 10.000 Timor-leste 1 nigeria 2 finland 3 romania 3 Togo 1 occ. palestinian Territory 2 france 3 russian federation 3 5000 united republic of Tanzania 1 panama 2 french polynesia 3 rwanda 3 yemen 1 paraguay 2 gabon 3 saint kitts and nevis 3 0 Zambia 1 sao Tome and principe 2 germany 3 saint lucia 3 Zimbawe 1 senegal 2 ghana 3 saint vincent/grenadines 3 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 94 algeria 2 sierra leone 2 greece 3 samoa 3 95 angola 2 south africa 2 grenada 3 saudit arabia 3 azerbaijan 2 sri lanka 2 guyana 3 serbia and montenegro 3 g7 average sub-saharan average Benin 2 sudan 2 hungary 3 seychelles 3 Bolivia 2 suriname 2 iceland 3 slovakia 3 source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data of the imf, World Economic Outlook, 2011. Botswana 2 swaziland 2 iran 3 slovenia 3 Brazil 2 syria 2 ireland 3 solomon islands 3 Bulgaria 2 Thailand 2 israel 3 spain 3 ViTaMin a DefiCienCY Among the micronutrients, vitamin A seems to play a very relevant role. In fact, its Burundi 2 Trinidad and Tobago 2 italy 3 sweden 3 CauSeS aT leaST aBouT deficiency causes at least about 800,000 deaths per year among women and children, Cambodia 2 Turkmenistan 2 Jamaica 3 switzerland 3 800,000 DeaThS Per Year according to the World Food Programme. This finding appears even more dramatic if it aMonG WoMen China 2 uganda 2 Japan 3 Tajikistan 3 is associated with evidence produced by the WFP, according to which 684,000 deaths Colombia 2 viet nam 2 kazakhstan 3 Tunisia 3 anD ChilDren. among children could be avoided with the adequate provision of vitamin A and zinc.12 Congo 2 albania 3 kiribati 3 Turkey 3 Vitamin A is found in vegetables and in cereals. It is useful for many fundamental Costa rica 2 antigua and Barbuda 3 kuwait 3 ucraine 3 biological processes, such as growth, vision, reproductive capacity and cell differentia- dem. rep. Congo 2 argentina 3 kyrgyzstan 3 united arab emirates 3 tion. The FAO periodically calculates vitamin A (retinol) availability for human con- djibuti 2 armenia 3 latvia 3 united kingdom 3 sumption in different countries of the world by converting the estimates of the availa- dominicana republic 2 australia 3 lebanon 3 united states of america 3 ble food for consumption into retinol equivalent (RE) micrograms (mcg). The current d.p.r. of korea 2 austria 3 lithuania 3 uruguay 3 data on the 2005-2007 period presented in Figure 5.7 shows that vitamin A deficiency ecuador 2 Bahamas 3 luxembourg 3 uzbekistan 3 is particularly significant in most developing countries. egypt 2 Barbados 3 malaysia 3 vanuatu 3 Due to a bitter paradox associated with extreme hunger, there is an exponential increa- el salvador 2 Belarus 3 maldives 3 venezuela 3 se in the incidence of overweight and obese people in the populations of rich countries 1 less than 300 mcg re per person per day and a considerable increase in chronic diseases (cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and 2 Between 300 and 600 mcg re per person per day cancer) which can be prevented with adequate nutrition.13 On the basis of these considerations, it is clear that the relationship between nutri- 3 more than 600 mcg re per person per day tion and health is true for all countries, with different outcomes, critical issues and source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data of the fao statistics division, march 2011.
- 50. 5.2 fooD aCCeSS characteristics. In developing nations, the food security/health relationship is mainly related to food accessibility and to an adequate intake of micronutrients; in advanced countries, the main problem seems to be a correct and healthy diet. anD PoPulaTion TrenDS o ne of the factors with the greatest impact on food accessibility (especially in terms of The GroWTh in The WorlD Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook the physical access to a sufficient quantity of food) is population growth. PoPulaTion, in DeVeloPinG The growth in the world population – in developing countries in particular – has CounTrieS in ParTiCular, haS Been anD STill iS a Major been and still is a major challenge for the global food and agricultural production system, ChallenGe for The GloBal generating exponential growth in the demand for food. fooD anD aGriCulTural This is not a temporary phenomenon. In fact, population growth will remain a challenge for ProDuCTion SYSTeM the future; as shown in Figure 5.8, the population in Africa and in Asia is expected to grow at least until 2050. In fact, the present trends show that the population is booming in the countries that are most affected by hunger and poverty. A look at the developing countries – considered by 96 the FAO as the most vulnerable in terms of nutrition – reveals that these have and will have 97 the highest population growth rates in the world in the next decades. For example, Ethiopia had 20 million inhabitants in 1950; today, it has 88 million and it will have 162 million in 2030, with an annual growth rate of 2.9%.14 Many other African countries with a weak nutritional profile show similar trends. Ca- ses in point are Uganda and Burundi, that have 33 million and 10 million inhabitants, respectively.15 The population in these countries currently grows by 3.6%. By 2030, their population will amount to 68 million and 18 million, respectively,16 with record high growth rates. On the basis of the considerations made so far, it is worth recalling that the number of undernourished people is still extremely high – 925 million according to the FAO in 2010 – and there are many stalemates or setbacks in the world, notwithstanding the positive efforts made by some countries, as in the hunger-health relationship domain. Besides the so-called “absolute values” in population trends, there is and there will be a major “shift effect” in the world population: for some decades now, inurbation has greatly intensified, with a progressive flight from rural areas and a population boom in urban areas, especially in developing countries. The shift of large masses of people from the country to the cities is critical for food accessi- bility for the following reasons: – the “migration effect,” with the presence of a large number of people in small areas, very often without basic social and health facilities (drinking water, sewers, hospitals, acceptable housing, etc.); – pressures on the production and distribution of food in these urban areas; – flight from the land and abandonment of agricultural practices; Steve Raymer/National Geographic Image Collection – problems related to food accessibility - not only in terms of quantity, but in terms of
- 51. 5.3 fooD aCCeSSiBiliTY quality – for masses of individuals who are often pushed toward urban areas because of extreme poverty and hunger. This trend is very significant for the future scenario. According to the United Nations, in Africa the percentage of the population living in urban centers is expected to grow from anD SoCial ConfliCTS 32% in 1990 to 55% in 2030, increasing by 72% in 40 years. figure 5.8. Global population trends in 2050 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 T he presence of natural and agricultural resources, their exploitation and the allo- hiSToriCallY, aCCeSS To 3,000,000 Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook cation of the proceeds coming from their production and commercialization have fooD iS The rooT CauSe Historically been the root cause of conflicts, both at the national level (in the form of ConfliCTS, BoTh aT 2,000,000 The naTional anD aT The of domestic conflicts within the States which have often resulted in civil wars and seces- inTernaTional leVel sions) and at the international level (more or less openly declared and disclosed wars to 1,000,000 control boundary areas rich in agricultural and mining resources). The strong endogenous link between food accessibility – and recently, food inflation – 0 and civil conflicts has always been a problem which affects and besets the world. Starting 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 with the end of the Cold War, conflicts have been on the rise, especially in the form of domestic civil wars. And in the presence of poverty and political and social instability, 98 the access to and the distribution of food, water and natural resources become essential 99 africa europe north america for the survival and for the economic progress of the ethnic, social and religious groups asia latin america oceania present in the area. and the Caribbean On the basis of the UNEP estimates, at least 18 domestic conflicts since 1990 have been source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data of the united nations, department of economic and generated and exacerbated by agricultural and natural resources. Looking at the last 60 social affairs, population division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, 2009. years, according to the United Nations, at least 40% of domestic conflicts has been lin- ked to the availability, the use and the exploitation of agricultural and natural resources. figure 5.9. Population in urban areas (as a % of total population) All the international analyses show that major conflicts/critical situations are directly or indirectly related to the availability of food and of natural resources: 80 – social tensions linked to very poor living conditions; 74 – social tensions linked to the access and control of agricultural resources; 70 71 68 66 – migration flows due to very poor living standards (malnutrition and lack of water), in 66 60 some cases exacerbated by climate change;17 62 62 58 – political and social instability and misgovernment in meeting the growing require- 55 50 ments of the population; 45 49 40 – pressures on international governance due to growing imbalances between developing 44 40 39 and developed countries. In the future, there may be relevant risks associated with a deterioration in the avai- 30 32 lability and the security of food and agricultural products (exacerbated by the ongoing 20 climate change); this may lead to a significant increase in social conflicts, especially in 1990 2001 2010 2020 2030 developing areas of the world, where food and water are able to multiply latent and still unsolved ethnic, religious and economic tensions. africa south america asia In fact, the availability of more natural resources means more income and prosperity. But, on the other hand, this can concretely contribute to instability and conflicts. Often, source: reviewed by The european house-ambrosetti on the data of the united nations department of economic and social affairs, population division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, 2008; united nations – un-habitat, State of the World Cities, 2008. in developing countries, the expectation of reaching economic and social prosperity by
- 52. exploiting the existing natural resources leads to the deterioration of the natural envi- ronment. In fact, the revenues from the exploitation and commercialization of natural resources are not used to enhance technologies and improve the living standards of the population, but to strengthen the power of local and often armed groups. When there are social conflicts – even if not directly designed to control natural re- sources – these resources often become tools to finance the cost of these conflicts, thus transforming control over the exploitation of these resources into a strategic objective for the warring factions. The governance of resources is also a challenge in stable political and economic situations. But it becomes crucial in countries where local governments are weak and there is no transparency, which leads to opportunistic attempts to extract resources according to nepotistic practices or through illegal trade.18 In these contexts, the exploitation of natural and agricultural resources is extremely likely to degenerate into civil wars/secessions or into conflicts between neighboring countries (to control common or particularly profitable resources). SoCial ConfliCTS – Often these conflicts are mainly considered in terms of their immediate consequences: Food Security: Challenges and Outlook eSPeCiallY aSSoCiaTeD casualties, wounded people, refugees, land and woodland devastation. But they do not WiTh naTural anD only have short-term consequences. Indeed, social conflicts – especially associated with aGriCulTural reSourCeS natural and agricultural resources – very often undermine the future economic and so- – VerY ofTen unDerMine The fuTure eConoMiC cial growth and the development of the countries where they occur (and of the neighbo- anD SoCial GroWTh anD ring countries if these conflicts result in migration flows). The DeVeloPMenT of The connection between natural resources, conflicts and food security, unfortunately, CounTrieS appears very close, with a vicious circle characterized by war and by the grabbing and devastation of the available agricultural resources. In turn, this leads to hunger, disease and, very often, to migration flows, with major negative consequences in terms of health 100 and in terms of access to water and to a sufficient amount of food for huge masses of vulnerable people. Populations located in areas beset by conflicts over natural resources have to deal with the very difficult – and often impossible - challenge of revamping the development process, even when they are able to survive and go back to a normal existen- ce in countries which are again at peace. DurinG PerioDS of fooD The empirical evidence of the above has been proposed by the very recent paper Food inflaTion, The So-CalleD Prices and Political Instability19 of the International Monetary Fund, which provides very “loW-inCoMe” CounTrieS interesting statistics on the correlation between the food crisis and political instability. haVe eXPerienCeD a This working paper presents a survey of the impact of international food prices on demo- DeTerioraTion of Their PoliTiCal SiTuaTion cracy and domestic conflicts in over 12 countries between 1970 and 2007. Its empirical results show that during periods of food inflation, the so-called “low-income” countries have experienced a deterioration of their political situation. From a purely macroeconomic perspective, international food inflation has led to an in- crease in the real GDP and in per capita investments in food-exporting countries. But, at the same time, the increase in international food prices has reduced real per capita con- John Scofield/National Geographic Image Collection sumption and has significantly deteriorated the income distribution gap. The widening gap between the rich and the poor – already present in many developing nations – has led to hundreds of civil conflicts in the so-called “low-income” countries. The WiDeninG GaP BeTWeen It is important to emphasize that the main reason for the gap between “low-income” The riCh anD The Poor haS countries and “medium and high-income” countries is the enormous concentration of leD To hunDreDS of CiVil extremely poor people in “poor” countries. In fact, this segment of the population is the ConfliCTS in The So-CalleD first victim of food inflation, in that a large portion of private expenditure is allocated to “loW-inCoMe” CounTrieS buy food.20
- 53. Alex Treadway/National Geographic Image Collection areas of inTervenTion 6. reCommendaTions:
- 54. 6.1 DiMenSionS anD CauSeS of The ProBleM i n 2009, when we first addressed the issue of access to food, we were convinced that it Food Security: Challenges and Outlook was a topic of great importance that required greater attention from opinion and po- licy makers and farreaching, consistent and timely measures. The events of the last two years, beginning with the financial and economic crisis that hit the world with dramatic results, including issues of nutrition, have strengthened our initial conviction. Hence, the decision to return to this topic with an update, on the eve of what appears to be a very deli- cate and critical new phase of access to food for the population of our planet. The study was undertaken with the aim of describing the problem of access to food in its multidimensional aspects, taking into account the complex system of variables involved. Here below, we will try to summarize the key evidence gathered and to suggest possible 104 areas of intervention. The CurrenT ProDuCTion From the technical-quantitative standpoint, although the current production capacity CaPaCiTY iS TheoreTiCallY is theoretically sufficient to feed the entire world population, this does not prevent the SuffiCienT To feeD The persistence and amplification of huge disparities in access to food itself, the emblem of enTire WorlD PoPulaTion, which is the existence of nearly one billion malnourished people, compared to another ThiS DoeS noT PreVenT The PerSiSTenCe anD billion obese people. Moreover, this paradox has been getting worse in the last two years. aMPlifiCaTion of huGe This is primarily due to structural reasons concerning the problem of poverty and the DiSPariTieS in aCCeSS need for equitable and sustainable economic development in the more underdeveloped To fooD iTSelf countries. The resolution of this aspect of the problem requires multidimensional policies to com- bat poverty, especially in rural areas, through massive, 360° investments in agriculture and economic and social development. These measures should be directed to multiple targets of production, redistribution and respect for the environment: it is not enough Robbie George/National Geographic Image Collection to invest in increased production and productivity (primarily in agriculture, through improved technology transfer and improved management of access to water); rather, we need a more equitable distribution of wealth through the creation of income oppor- tunities and a more sustainable use of natural resources (water, soil and the intended use of agricultural crops). ThiS iS PriMarilY Due In recent years, other elements have been compounded to these structural factors – To STruCTural reaSonS cyclical in nature but destined to persist if the causes are not eliminated – which are ConCerninG The ProBleM of just as important. PoVerTY anD The neeD for First of all, the increasing volatility of agricultural and food markets, which is caused by equiTaBle anD SuSTainaBle eConoMiC DeVeloPMenT large global phenomena (such as the volatility of energy markets, the effects of climate change and economic and population growth) and amplified by financial speculation.
- 55. 6.2 neW ChallenGeS aheaD Among the possible keys for the interpretation of the phenomenon and its recent increa- se, two stand out as particularly important and timely: - the failure of the functioning of pure market mechanisms in the food sector; - the lack of adequate joint action and multilateral economic, social, environmental and trade policies to govern access to food, changing the inequalities found today, in part by applying structural measures. The CenTraliTY of In fact, the convergence of financial speculation, protectionist policies of various types aGriCulTural DeVeloPMenT implemented by many governments around the world, alternative uses of the land in in The ConTeXT of fooD relation to food production, and so on, have produced phenomena which significantly SeCuriTY iS Clear distort the orderly functioning of markets, making it clear that there is a dramatic lack of governance on an international scale. These problems, reported in the first edition of this document, are all still there, without any decisive progress to report. Seeing as we are talking about food production, and since 75% of the needy belong to the rural popu- lation, the centrality of agricultural development in the context of food security is clear. n The drop in investments – both public and private – in agriculture over the last 20 years ew global pressures will be added to the structural dynamics that characterize neW GloBal PreSSureS Will Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook and the parallel absence of political attention (except, as mentioned, the adoption of pro- the problem of food security. Be aDDeD To The STruCTural tectionist, and often distorting, agricultural and trade policies) may find a possible expla- Three in particular: the population and economic growth in some emerging DYnaMiCS ThaT CharaCTerize nation for the productivity gains, created in the last 30 years by technical developments countries (destined to change the consolidated balance); climate change, which will wei- The ProBleM of fooD SeCuriTY: The PoPulaTion and the spreading of knowledge in agriculture (the so-called green revolution); earnings gh heavily on influencing the food business over the next forty years; and the gradual anD eConoMiC GroWTh, that are sufficient to enable a gradual and steady increase in production and a decrease transition from oil to renewable energy sources and biofuels. CliMaTe ChanGe anD The in prices in real terms. This has led to the illusion that the focus on appropriate action to With respect to environmental issues, it should be noted that the response strategies are GraDual TranSiTion froM address the sector may be relaxed. on two fronts: in the area of strategies of mitigation and in that of adaptation. The more oil To reneWaBle enerGY In light of this, some observers have stressed that the pressures on the demand for food in effective the results of actions to contrast the phenomena of climate change are, through SourCeS anD BiofuelS act today would pose conditions – thanks to higher average prices of agricultural commo- a process of broad and shared consultation, the more the strategies in agriculture can be 106 dities that are more attractive for investments by the industry. Investments to support the placed in the area of mitigation, with predominantly adaptive adjustments. Unfortuna- 107 launch of a new “green revolution.” However, the high volatility expected in the agricul- tely, the results of the recent conferences in Copenhagen and Cancun do not lead us to tural markets themselves implies a high level of risk that still constitutes a strong barrier expect particularly positive developments in the near future. to investments in agricultural development. The failure of an overall policy of containment of the phenomenon of climate change The failure of an oVerall Moreover, the efforts which will increase agricultural productivity are only one facet of a opens up the prospect of potentially catastrophic scenarios, with not just secondary agri- PoliCY of ConTainMenT of more complex picture of development and poverty reduction. The management of each cultural upheavals – which is the economic sector most directly affected by the pheno- The PhenoMenon of CliMaTe of the relevant points (agricultural investments and technology transfer, market access ChanGe oPenS uP The mena of climate change – in terms of yields achievable, geographical areas and water ProSPeCT of PoTenTiallY and functioning of markets, international trade agreements, creation of social and econo- resources used. The eXerCiSe of CaTaSTroPhiC SCenarioS, mic opportunities, creation of safety nets, education and social empowerment, allocation Economic and demographic pressures also pose challenges that should not be underestimated. WiTh noT juST SeConDarY aPProPriaTe aCTion of ConTrol anD DireCTion on a and management of natural resources, etc.) requires the exercise of appropriate action of The projections of population growth over the next 40 years raise the problem of iden- aGriCulTural uPheaValS GloBal SCale iS requireD. control and direction on a global scale. tifying new ways of growth in agricultural productivity. The debate on the need for a technological paradigm shift toward the direction of the use of biotechnology has been going on for some time. While the debate on renewable energy is the subject of extensive discussion, there seems to eConoMiC anD DeMoGraPhiC be a matter of some importance that has been underestimated: the eating habits of the global PreSSureS alSo PoSe population and of emerging countries. In our opinion, this constitutes the variable which ChallenGeS ThaT ShoulD noT Be unDereSTiMaTeD still needs to be explored further; it is capable of moving – on equal terms of population growth – the bar of the productivity gains needed to support the increased demand for food. What one finds, in our opinion, is not only population growth dynamics in itself – asso- ciated with the growth of economic welfare – but the intersection of these dimensions with the styles of consumption adopted by people, in order to identify in time, and pos- sibly redirect, the composition of the demand for food products that will be defined in the near future. It is the unknown equation that could indicate the possible strategic alternatives for the medium to long term.
- 56. 6.3 areaS of inTerVenTion A government of the production chain Research and Input factors Agricultural Trade in Industrial Development activities agricultural processing Consumption products B C D productivity gains stabilizing Consumption markets styles It is possible to summarize the flow of operations in the food industry, very simply by highlighting the six main areas, placed in sequential order: cessary to overcome the paradigm of a self-regulating market, as well as the coordination Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 1 research and development, relating to all possible areas (soil fertility, optimizing the of global policy and the overall time reduction of protectionist policies of a unilateral use of production inputs, mechanisms for knowledge transfer, etc.). nature. 2 production of input factors (such as seeds and fertilizers) and access to natural re- It is therefore essential: sources needed for agricultural production (for example, water); - To return to giving food a central role of importance within the international political The fooD Chain ShoulD Be and economic agenda. This means that the food chain should be more clearly struc- More ClearlY STruCTureD 3 farming, in the strictest sense, i.e., the phases of growing, harvesting and storage of tured and governed toward the objectives of accessibility, sustainability and nutritional anD GoVerneD ToWarD The agricultural products obtained. This activity may have very different characteristics oBjeCTiVeS of aCCeSSiBiliTY, depending on geographical location, soil structure, the degree and type of mechani- quality. In fact, it is fundamental to guarantee and ensure the quality and quantity of SuSTainaBiliTY anD zation, use of chemical agents, the extent of the plots, etc.; the food produced and distributed; nuTriTional qualiTY. There 4 trade in agricultural products, both to consumers and toward the next phase of indu- - To that end, there is the need to create common spaces for dialog and analysis of is- iS The neeD To CreaTe 108 sues related to food security: no country, institution or economic actor in the food CoMMon SPaCeS for DialoG 109 strial processing; industry is capable of responding to the challenges posed by the reference context anD analYSiS of iSSueS 5 industrial processing and the subsequent distribution of the finished product; (environmental, political, social and economic) on its own. Instead, there must be a relaTeD To fooD SeCuriTY 6 processes of consumption. To give a detailed account of the conditions necessary for the smooth functioning of multilateral and transversal approach involving all public and private actors directly this complex system and detailed descriptions of activities lies beyond the scope of this and indirectly connected with the agriculture-food sector, in order to further increase document. the average standard of the industry; We limit ourselves to pointing out the four macro-areas where the focus should be, in our - Place on a higher level the economic policy actions aimed at supporting the processes opinion. Namely: of growth and development of the poorest countries, actions that require the active foCuS on four MaCro-areaS A Governing the entire food chain, which, in part because of the particular nature of agri- intervention of the international community. Choices pertaining to this issue, which cultural food production, cannot be left to pure market logic; are of immense importance and very difficult to implement, are unfortunately a ne- B Research areas of productivity gains, acting along the different stages of the entire cessary condition but are not sufficient for the orderly functioning of the sector. chain; C The stabilization of markets for food, to help establish fair conditions that are able to sti- mulate investments, remunerate the factors of production and increase opportunities 6.3.2 Promote economic development and achieve increases in for access to food; agricultural productivity D Addressing eating habits, which we have already mentioned, and which we will discuss further in the closing chapter. It is necessary to identify, implement and support specific sustainable development routes to define and spread credible and practical tools and solutions applicable to de- veloping countries and in those key sectors for economic growth. The terms of produc- 6.3.1 Strengthen the mechanisms of global governance tivity, the measure of the increases needed over the next 40 years to support the growth of food consumption worldwide is, in our opinion, a factor that depends on a complex There is an evident lack of overall governance of the food system, which requires rapid mix of variables: the growth of world population, the impact of climate change on agri- and timely intervention on many levels. The particular nature of food – which cannot cultural yields and the composition of future global food baskets. simply be reduced to a commodity, as has happened in recent decades under the boost This last aspect, if managed correctly, contains the degree of increase in productivity of its greater availability – and the failure of the mechanisms of distribution, make it ne- required to support global consumption. The challenge is to continually innovate, and
- 57. iT iS neCeSSarY To SuPPorT strive for the development of models for agricultural production and high productivity, The Western diet and the Mediterranean diet differ mainly with reference to the quantities of SPeCifiC SuSTainaBlehigher quality and lower environmental impact. Scientific and technological research meat consumed. It is easily demonstrable how patterns of consumption that are too unbalan- DeVeloPMenT rouTeS To on these issues, also promoted by large flows of public investments, is therefore crucial. ced in the direction of the consumption of meat and food of animal origin may affect global Define anD SPreaD CreDiBle Some routes have already been drawn: food security over time. anD PraCTiCal ToolS anD SoluTionS aPPliCaBle To - interventions should be promoted in support of developing countries – in order to On the supply side of food, the central theme of any reflection, therefore, cannot help but DeVeloPinG CounTrieS anD achieve a state of food self-sufficiency – through the transfer of scientific knowledge be about the future composition of the demand for food products, in light of the extraordinary in ThoSe keY SeCTorS for and best farming practices to these countries, through programs designed specifi- changes that are already possible to predict today. Population growth is indeed associated with eConoMiC GroWTh cally to bridge the knowledge gap that exists today between advanced and backward sustained economic growth in large parts of the planet, with access to more sophisticated pat- countries; terns of consumption by large sections of the population of developing countries. - encourage maintenance and development of “local systems” of production-distribution- For the first time in history, the actions to govern and address eating patterns to account for a The aCTionS To GoVern anD inTerVenTionS ShoulD consumption of the food goods, preserving the quality of products and attentive to profile of sustainability are becoming a decisive variable for economic policy. This is taking aDDreSS eaTinG PaTTernS Be ProMoTeD in SuPPorT biosustainability, through appropriate policy and incentive/disincentive measures. concrete shape in the developed world, coping with a health emergency related to the sprea- To aCCounT for a Profile of of DeVeloPinG CounTrieS SuSTainaBiliTY are BeCoMinG ThrouGh The TranSfer of But there is also the need to counter the fiscal and trade policies that are distorting ding of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases and cancer from improper dietary habits. It will a DeCiSiVe VariaBle for SCienTifiC knoWleDGe anD world food markets, especially in developing countries. become crucial for developing countries because of the impact this will have on the balance eConoMiC PoliCY BeST farMinG PraCTiCeS These measures alone, combined with a more rational exploitation of the territory, will of global production in agriculture. The choice of sustainable food models for the future can Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook in orDer To enCouraGe permit the achievement of significant results. Other routes, linked to a technological also help reduce the emphasis on productivity gains, which, in turn, puts pressure on natural MainTenanCe anD paradigm shift – like biotechnology – are certainly to be explored in parallel, in the resources and environmental sustainability. DeVeloPMenT of “loCal SYSTeMS” of ProDuCTion- knowledge that a number of profiles related to their use should be more thoroughly DiSTriBuTion-ConSuMPTion explored and carefully assessed. 6.3.3 Change the food production chain in order to manage constan- tly growing price volatility and ensure the existence of safety nets 110 The food industry, destined in the near future to live with a significant and increasing 111 price volatility, must find technical solutions to best manage this new reality. In order to be in a position to oppose and prevent a future food crisis, it seems appro- priate: - to carry out an evaluation process and selection of best practices at the international, national and local level for the stockpiling of food and raw materials, defining costs, time and roles of such a process of global “insurance;” - to define a new set of rules for the markets for food commodities that is able to enhance the role, not merely economic, of the products traded therein; for example, by inclu- ding active forms of supervision by an independent authority or by imposing position limits to ensure that the money invested does not constitute operations of an excessi- vely speculative nature; - coordinate trade policies at the international level by facilitating access to markets and the qualitative growth of production from developing countries. 6.3.4 Managing eating habits The key predictive models used today, in our opinion, suffer from two serious limitations: the first lies in the difficulty of incorporating forecast data concerning the development of the phe- nomenon of climate change because of the objective uncertainty that characterizes possible impacts; and secondly, the difficulty in estimating the evolution of food consumption patterns. We know that environmental impact and the degree of efficiency in the consumption of natural resources (land, water, feed, etc.) associated with different dietary choices may be very different. Michael Hanson/National Geographic Image Collection
- 58. noTeS 8. source: anuradha mittal, The oakland institute. 9. “The bottom of the pyramid really depends on agriculture. There is no other way to bring them out of poverty except with agriculture” (suresh Babu, international food policy research institute - ifpri). 10. source: world Bank, 2007. ChaPTer 1 11. This expression describes the policies adopted in order to bring benefits to a country, even if at the expense of others. in other words, these policies are intended to provide relief to the economic problems in a country with means that tend to worsen the problems of others. 1. source: u.s. Census Bureau - international data Base, updated march 22, 2011. This body has estimated that the amount of the global population on march 22, 2011 was equal to 12. source: imf, World Economic Outlook, January 2011. 6,907,373,920. 2. This figure was calculated using the value of the global population on december 31, 2010 to achieve greater consistency with the data of the fao estimation for 2010 of the number of ChaPTer 3 undernourished people in the world. it is important to note that the estimate is hampered by significant deficiencies in statistical information related to the availability of updated and ho- mogeneous data on the phenomenon of malnutrition in the world. The data shown in figure 1. Rome Declaration on World Food Security, 1996. Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 1.1 for the last two years has, in fact, been estimated by the fao through the use of the food security model of the united states department of agriculture (usda). 2. speaking of the global financial, economic and food crisis during the international summit conference “water for agriculture and energy in africa: the Challenges of Climate Change” in 3. The region of latin america also includes Caribbean countries. december 2008, the director-general of fao, Jacques diouf, pointed out that “the promotion 4. fao, The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2010. of agricultural production in poor countries is the only lasting solution to fight hunger. we must therefore invest more in agriculture.” 5. fao, statistics division, march 2011. 3. millennium development goals - mdg 1: reduce by half the proportion of malnourished 6. Ibid. people by 2015. 7. Ibid. 4. return the number of malnourished people to a value corresponding to half the level found 8. “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to suf- in 1992 by and not later than 2015. 112 113 ficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active 5. Through a report by kostas stamoulis, director of the agricultural development economics and healthy life” (world food summit, 1996). division of fao. 9. world Bank, World Development Report 2008 - Agriculture for Development, october 2007. 6. The “right to food” is the inalienable right of every person to have regular access to enough food, adequate in terms of nutritional value and culturally acceptable food for an active and healthy life. it is the right to get food with dignity and autonomy, rather than the right to be fed. This right is reflected in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the un general ChaPTer 2 assembly december 10, 1948 and was subsequently reiterated in the “guidelines on the right to food” adopted by the fao Council in 2004. source: http://www.fao.org/righttofood/. 1. oversight, underestimation of the importance of the agricultural sector. 7. in 2004, fao member countries unanimously adopted the “guidelines for the right to food” and a unit within the agency to coordinate and assist countries in implementing them. These 2. alain de Janvry is the editor of the world Bank report entitled World Development Report 2008: voluntary guidelines are a practical tool to assist countries in their efforts to eliminate hunger Agriculture for Development. he is a member of the Center for international and development eco- and provide a coherent set of recommendations regarding jobs, land, water, genetic resources, nomics research (Cider) and the Center of evaluation for global action (Cega). he received a ph.d. networks of social security, education, etc., and seek to encourage the allocation of budgetary in “agricultural and resource economies” from the university of California, Berkeley. resources to anti-hunger and poverty programs. 3. The real prices refer to the nominal prices corrected for the changes registered in the u.s. 8. stamoulis, fao, 2009. producer price index, taking into consideration the calculation of the variations in the values in 2000 as equal to 100. 9. for more details, see http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-home/cfs-36/en/. 4. source: international rice research institute, 2011. 10. seoul summit - annex 2 - g20 action plan on development, november 2010. 5. Barilla Center for food & nutrition, Water Management and Climatic, Agricultural and Food 11. How to Strengthen the Role of the Private Sector in Global Food Security?, shenggen fan, Changes, 2009. general director of the international food policy research institute. 6. it is important to consider how the increase in crude oil prices also causes increasing costs of 12. high level expert forum - how to feed the world 2050, non-distorting support measures production and transportation in the food industry. to farmers, rome, october 12-13, 2009. 7. source: u.s. Census Bureau - international data Base, data updated on march 22, 2011. 13. meeting held in rome, april 14-15, 2009. This body has estimated that the amount of the global population on march 22, 2011 was equal 14. eaff - east african farmers’ federation; propaC - plateforme sous-régionale des or- to 6,907,373,920. ganisations paysannes d’afrique Centrale; roppa - réseau des organisations paysannes et
- 59. de producteurs agricoles de l’afrique de l’ouest; umagri union maghrébine des agriculteurs. 20. Biggelaar et al., 2004. 15. source: un - world food programme, march 2011. 21. mainly due to erosion. 22. unep, Global Environment Outlook: Environment for Development (GEO 4), 2007. 23. China national report on the implementation of the united nations Convention to Combat ChaPTer 4 desertification and national action programme to Combat desertification, 2006. 24. ispra, “2010 international year of Biodiversity - soil alarm: in italy, 80% is of poor quality,” press release, february 2010. 1. fao, 2009. 25. Biggelaar et al., 2004; henao and Baanante, 2006. 2. unep, 2009. 26. Calculated on the loss of 75 billion tons of soil due to erosion. 3. fao, 2003; hazell and wood, 2008. 27. Communication from the european Commission “Thematic strategy for soil protection,” dg 4. fischer, 2008. agriculture, september 22, 2006. 5. fao, 2009. 28. von Braun and meinez-dick (ifpri), Land Grabbing by Foreign Investors in Developing 6. in 2030, it is estimated that two-thirds of the population will live in cities. remember that in Countries: Risks and Opportunities, 2009. 2007, the world’s urban population - more than three billion people - surpassed the rural one Food Security: Challenges and Outlook Food Security: Challenges and Outlook 29. saudi arabia, Japan, China, india, korea, libya and egypt, among others, are among these for the first time in history. countries. 7. Biofuels are hydrocarbons produced from the processing of raw vegetable materials. They 30. grain, Making a killing from hunger - Against the grain, april 2008. can be in the form of liquid (ethanol or biodiesel) or gas (hydrogen and biogas). only the first form can be used in the transport sector because those in gaseous form need further pro- 31. at the g8 summit which was held in July in aquila, italy, it had been scheduled to sign a decla- cessing in the area of road cars and need a specific distribution network. The liquid fuels are ration of intent on these issues, but government leaders did not individuate a convergent solution. the ones that are increasingly penetrating the market. in particular ethanol, which is obtained 32. These impacts have been quantified in numerous studies, see for example: ipCC, Quan- through the fermentation of sugars derived from plant materials, whereas biodiesel is produced tifying the Impacts on Food Security and Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, from vegetable oils, mainly rapeseed and palm oil. These biofuels, which are primarily derived Contribution of working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel from edible products, are called “first generation.” Those of the “second generation,” more clo- on Climate Change, 2007. sely linked to developments in the technological progress, instead, can be derived from waste. 115 114 33. plan Bleu, State of the Environment and Development in the Mediterranean - 2009, no- 8. Jacques diouf, fao director-general, the inaugural speech of the forum “how to feed the vember 2009. world 2050,” october 2009. 34. BCfn, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food, 2009. 9. unep, 2009. 35. These projections depend on the future climate scenario that takes into account the calcu- 10. u.s. energy information administration - international energy statistics, march 2011. lation of the impact on agricultural production. 11. world Bank, 2007; fao, 2008. 36. remember that, according to laboratory tests and concentrations of Co2 in the order of 550 12. please note that biofuels are only one of the drivers of growth in the prices of agricultural ppm, the yields of crops such as rice, soybeans and wheat will increase by 10-20% and only 0% commodities. The drop in yields caused by bad weather conditions, the reduction of global -10% for maize and sorghum. source: ipCC, Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnera- stocks, the rising price of fossil fuels and changes in the structure of demand also affect their bility, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental price. Panel on Climate Change, 2007. 13. fao, 2008. 37. Jerichow, 2009. 14. ibid. 38. plan Bleu, 2009. 15. The participation of small farmers for agricultural production, including for biofuel, however, 39. Climate change and variability of the same are not new phenomena to agriculture. however, requires investments in infrastructures, research, rural financing, the study of markets and in what will change significantly is that the areas affected by this variability will increase. the commercial institutions and legal systems. 40. fao/giews, 2008. 16. “land which, due to natural processes or human activity, is no longer able to properly su- 41. fao, 2010. stain an economic function and/or the original ecological function” (iso, 1996). 42. fao, 2008. 17. fao-unep, Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA), 2008. 43. wfp, 2010. 18. The reduction of vegetation, for example, decreases the earth’s capacity to absorb Co2. it is estimated that 300 million tons of Co2 are released into the atmosphere through the pro- 44. fischer et al., 2002; reilly et al., 1995; darwin et al., 1995. cess of desertification every year (about 4% of total global emissions). sources: un, Review of 45. schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007. Implementation of Agenda 21 and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation: Desertification,” 2008; world resources institute, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Desertification Synthesis. 46. for a more detailed analysis of the topic, see Water Management (2009) and Water Eco- millennium ecosystem assessment,” p. 8, 2005. nomy (2011), both published by the Barilla Center for food & nutrition. 19. fao-unep, Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA), 2008; isriC, global asses- 47. wBCsd, 2006. sment of human-induced soil degradation (glasod), 2008.
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