This document describes a new approach to using metrics to track progress in hardware design verification projects. It discusses how software projects use metrics based on the Rayleigh distribution model to predict bug arrival rates. The author adapted this approach for use in hardware design projects by establishing a bug density metric based on lines of code or other measures of design size. Case studies are presented showing how predicted and actual bug arrival rates aligned closely on several projects. This quantitative approach allows managers to better answer questions about project schedule and resources needed over time.