Idaho Department of Labor Projections and Hot Jobs - Idaho and SW Idaho

Idaho Department of Labor Projections and Hot Jobs - Idaho and SW Idaho

• 1.
  Labor Market Projectionsfor Idaho Industries and Occupations: 2014 – 2024
• 2.
  Background: Our ProjectionsProgram • 10-year Projections – Bureau of Labor Statistics • Industries and Occupations • STEM Occupations • Educational Attainment
• 3.
  Projections Are: • Createdevery 2 years • A count of jobs, not people • A best guess at the future assuming a “business as usual” approach • Demand Side, NOT Supply Side
• 4.
  Projections DO NOT: •Factor in technological change or innovation • Include policy decisions (eg. new laws or policies) • Include economic bubbles, crises, or even business cycles • PREDICT THE FUTURE
• 5.
  Total Employment Projected Values Source:Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [CELLRAN GE] [CELLRAN GE] 0 250 500 750 1000 2014 2024 Thousands Idaho +1.8% Growth [CELLRAN GE] [CELLRAN GE] 0 50 100 150 200 2014 2024 Millions United States +0.6% Growth
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  Industry Projections 2014 -2024
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  Regional Job Growth:2014 – 2024 2014 Employment and Projected 2024 Employment in thousands Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 50 71 97 98 98 361 44 61 78 83 82 289 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 North Central Southeastern Northern South Central Eastern Southwestern +2.2% Growth +2.2% Growth +1.8% Growth +1.7% Growth +1.2% Growth +1.1% Growth
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  Annual Industry JobGrowth: 2014 – 2024 Projected Growth Rates for Service and Goods Producing Sectors Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 3.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% -0.2% Other Services Construction Leisure/Hospitality Health Care/Social Assistance Financial Activities Professional/Business Srvcs Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Retail Trade Educational Services Public Administration Wholesale Trade Transportation/Warehousing Information Manufacturing Mining
• 9.
  Idaho Industry JobGrowth: 2014 – 2024 2014 Employment and Projected Growth Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 88,400 65,600 77,900 79,800 33,800 56500 53,900 15,891 28,000 59,800 23,500 28,700 20,200 Health Care/Social Assistance Leisure/Hospitality Professional/Business Srvcs Retail Trade Construction Educational Services Public Administration Other Services Financial Activities Manufacturing Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Wholesale Trade Transportation/Warehousing Information Utilities
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  Annual Industry JobGrowth: 2014-2024 Projected Growth Rates SW Idaho, and the Nation Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4.2% 3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% -0.1% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% -0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% -0.7% 0.3% -0.1% 0.9% Other Services Public Administration Construction Leisure/Hospitality Educational Services Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Financial Activities Professional/Business Srvcs Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Health Care/Social Assistance Manufacturing Transportation/Warehousing Information Mining
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  SW Idaho IndustryJob Growth: 2014 – 2024 2014 Employment and Projected Growth Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 29,778 20,961 39,852 42,890 35,585 23102 17,009 8,030 14,557 26,715 13,412 6,473 8,944 Leisure/Hospitality Public Administration Professional/Business Srvcs Health Care/Social Assistance Retail Trade Educational Services Construction Other Services Financial Activities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Ag, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Transportation/Warehousing Information
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  Industry Summary: In Idaho,by 2024: • 138,000 new jobs are expected: an increase of 19.8% over 2014. • Other Services is expected to grow at 3.9% annually, the fastest rate of any industry. • Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to add the most jobs of any industry – 19,500 – and grow by 2%, the third fastest among all industries. • Manufacturing is projected to add 5,800 jobs and grow by 0.9%, 1.6% faster than – and in the opposite direction of – the nation.
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  Industry Summary: In SouthwestIdaho, by 2024: • 71,300 new jobs are expected: an increase of 24.6% over 2014. • Other Services is expected to grow at 4.2% annually, the fastest rate of any industry. • Health Care and Social Assistance is projected to add the fourth most jobs of any industry – 7,300 – and grow by 1.6% annually. • Manufacturing is projected to add 2,900 jobs and grow by 1%, 1.7% faster than – and in the opposite direction of – the nation.
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  Occupations 2014 - 2024
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  Occupations in Idaho:2014 – 2024 Projected Annual Growth Rates 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% Personal Care/Service Computer/Math Life/Physical/Social Science Arts/Design/Ent/Media Construction/Extraction Business/Financial Ops Legal Community/Social Service Food Preparation/Serving Management Healthcare Support Architecture/Engineering Installation/Maintenance/Repair Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Education/Training/Library Sales and Related Transportation/Material Moving Farming/Fishing/Forestry Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Protective Service Office/Admin Support Production Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  Occupations in Idaho:2014 – 2024 Current Employment and Projected Growth [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 103,053 55,969 54,542 68,196 36,414 23,607 43,546 39,465 35,377 25,857 28,831 42,452 14,017 18,170 25,916 12,516 17,504 10,078 10,315 11,935 12,994 Office/Admin Support Food Preparation/Serving Management Sales and Related Construction/Extraction Personal Care/Service Transportation/Material Moving Education/Training/Library Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Business/Financial Ops Installation/Maintenance/Repair Production Computer/Math Healthcare Support Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Community/Social Service Farming/Fishing/Forestry Life/Physical/Social Science Arts/Design/Ent/Media Architecture/Engineering Protective Service Legal Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  0.73 0.74 0.77 0.81 0.94 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.11 1.29 1.34 1.85 2.57 0.53 1.03 1.532.03 2.53 3.03 Computer/Math Business/Financial Ops Legal Protective Service Transportation/Material Moving Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Food Preparation/Serving Sales and Related Healthcare Support Production Arts/Design/Ent/Media Personal Care/Service Office/Admin Support Education/Training/Library Architecture/Engineering Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Management Installation/Maintenance/Repair Construction/Extraction Community/Social Service Life/Physical/Social Science Farming/Fishing/Forestry Location Quotient Concentration in Idaho: 2015 Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  Occupations in Idaho:2014 – 2024 Projected Total Openings Due to Growth and Replacements [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] Office/Admin Support Food Preparation/Serving Sales and Related Management Transportation/Material Moving Education/Training/Library Production Construction/Extraction Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Personal Care/Service Installation/Maintenance/Repair Business/Financial Ops Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Healthcare Support Farming/Fishing/Forestry Computer/Math Life/Physical/Social Science Community/Social Service Arts/Design/Ent/Media Architecture/Engineering Protective Service Legal Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 19.
  Occupations in SWIdaho: 2014 – 2024 Projected Annual Growth Rates 3.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% Life/Physical/Social Science Legal Computer/Math Food Preparation/Serving Architecture/Engineering Personal Care/Service Business/Financial Ops Construction/Extraction Installation/Maintenance/Repair Protective Service Management Education/Training/Library Community/Social Service Arts/Design/Ent/Media Sales and Related Healthcare Support Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Transportation/Material Moving Office/Admin Support Production Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Farming/Fishing/Forestry Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 20.
  Occupations in SWIdaho: 2014 – 2024 Current Employment and Projected Growth [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] 25,848 46,272 29,755 15,176 15,637 13,708 14,551 11,196 10,485 17,246 16,355 5,386 12,692 8,374 4,908 3,486 2,700 10,142 3,340 3,848 1,250 Food Preparation/Serving Office/Admin Support Sales and Related Management Education/Training/Library Construction/Extraction Installation/Maintenance/Repair Personal Care/Service Business/Financial Ops Transportation/Material Moving Healthcare Practitioners/Technical Computer/Math Production Healthcare Support Community/Social Service Architecture/Engineering Life/Physical/Social Science Building/Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Protective Service Arts/Design/Ent/Media Legal Farming/Fishing/Forestry Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 21.
  Occupation Summary: In Idaho,by 2024: • Personal Care/Service Occupations are expected to grow most rapidly at 3.1%. • Computer/Math Occupations and Life, Physical and Social Science Occupations are expected to grow at or above 2.5% annually. • Despite a slower rate of growth, Health Care Occupations are expected to add 11,400 jobs over 10 years. • Despite it’s slower than average growth rate, Production Occupations should add over 5,000 new jobs over 10 years. • The majority of Production Occupation job openings will be related to turnover.
• 22.
  Occupation Summary: In SouthwesternIdaho, by 2024: • Life, Physical and Social Science and Legal Occupations are expected to grow by 3.4% annually, the fastest of any occupation group • 3 of the 5 occupation groups with the fastest expected growth rate are STEM occupation groups. • While Health Care Occupations will experience a slightly slower than average growth rate, the two health care groups are still expected to add 4,300 jobs over 10 years. • Production Occupations will add 1,800 jobs over the next 10 years, however, most job openings will stem from turnover, not growth.
• 23.
  STEM Occupations 2014 -2024 Science Technology Engineering Mathematics
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  STEM Occupations 2014– 2024 Projected Growth Rates for STEM and Non-STEM Occupations 23.1% 19.4% STEM Non-STEM Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  STEM Occupations: 2014– 2024 Projected Openings from Growth and Replacements [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] +10,295 +7,698 Science/Engineering/Math/IT Health Social Science Architecture Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  Total Employment Projected Values 80,019 98,528 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 20142024 STEM 615,248 734,820 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 2014 2024 Non-STEM Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics +2.1% Growth +1.8% Growth
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  Total STEM: 2004-2014and 2014-2024 STEM Science, Engineering, Math, IT, Architecture, Social Science and Health 14.3% 13.6% US Idaho 2004 - 2014 History 12.6% 23.1% US Idaho 2014 - 2024 Projection Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 28.
  STEM Tech: 2004-2014and 2014-2024 STEM Science, Engineering, Math, IT 8.8% 26.0% US Idaho 2014 - 2024 Projection 11.3% 0.4% US Idaho 2004 - 2014 History Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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  Educational Attainment 2014 -2024
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  Workforce Education Projected EducationalAttainment in 2024 [CELLRANGE] 11% [CELLRANGE] 28% [CELLRANGE] 23% [CELLRANGE] 9% [CELLRANGE] 19% [CELLRANGE] 7% [CELLRANGE] 3% Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the American Community Survey By 2024… • 61% of jobs will demand a greater than high school education. • 29% are projected to demand a bachelor’s degree or higher. • 39% are projected to demand a high school diploma or less.
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  Source: Idaho Departmentof Labor and the American Community Survey
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  Why Education? National UnemploymentRate by Degree Attainment: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 33.
  Idaho’s Hot Jobs OccupationalProjections from 2014 to 2024 Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying. Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Rank Shift Occupation Title 2024 Employment Annual Openings Percent Change 2014 Median Wage Typical Entry Level Education 1 ↑3 Software Developers 6,969 259 36.8% $36.35 Bachelor’s 2 ↑74 Lawyers 3,315 109 27.2% $37.04 Doctoral 3 ↑23 Management Analysts 2,959 106 34.4% $29.26 Bachelor’s 4 ↑22 Accountants and Auditors 5,385 229 27.5% $29.33 Bachelor’s 5 ↑19 Civil Engineers 2,133 96 28.3% $35.31 Bachelor’s 6 ↑25 Personal Financial Advisors 1,141 53 39.3% $33.82 Bachelor’s 7 ↑40 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 3,229 99 26.8% $30.03 Bachelor’s 8 ↓5 Physical Therapists 1,347 59 29.8% $37.64 Doctoral 9 ↑10 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary 1,209 45 30.4% $39.33 Doctoral 10 ↓1 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 1,949 71 38.3% $24.76 Bachelor’s
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  Idaho’s Hot Jobs OccupationalProjections from 2014 to 2024 Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying. Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Rank Shift Occupation Title 2024 Employment Annual Openings Percent Change 2014 Median Wage Typical Entry Level Education 11 ↓9 Registered Nurses 14,357 242 20.3% $29.30 Bachelor’s 12 ↓2 Nurse Practitioners 752 18 32.4% $44.52 Master’s 13 ↓7 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2040 50 32.3% $23.36 High School 14 ↑124 Veterinarians 745 18 31.4% $39.45 Doctoral 15 ↓10 Physician Assistants 760 17 28.6% $45.17 Master’s 16 ↑207 Public Relations Specialists 805 22 37.8% $28.33 Bachelor’s 17 ↑80 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 1,857 36 24.3% $29.28 Bachelor’s 18 ↑315 Conservation Scientists 519 18 54.9% $28.82 Bachelor’s 19 ↑21 Operations Research Analysts 572 18 44.1% $29.90 Bachelor’s 20 ↑73 Web Developers 1,466 50 52.1% $18.31 Associates
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  Idaho’s Most NumerousJobs Occupational Projections from 2014 to 2024 Rank Occupation Title 2024 Employment Annual Openings Percent Change 2014 Median Wage 1 Retail Salespersons 26,814 447 19.9% $10.68 2 Personal Care Aides 12,421 361 40.1% $9.44 3 Food Preparation and Serving Workers 14,538 346 31.2% $8.65 4 Customer Service Representatives 19,646 338 20.8% $12.84 5 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 16,322 277 20.4% $17.70 6 Registered Nurses 14,357 242 20.3% $29.30 7 Waiters and Waitresses 13,145 241 22.5% $8.83 8 Office Clerks 17,409 233 15.5% $13.46 9 Restaurant Cooks 7,908 212 36.6% $10.42 10 Cashiers 16,825 182 12.1% $9.15 Hot jobs are defined as occupations that are numerous, fast-growing and well-paying. Source: Idaho Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 36.
  Our Challenge: LaborSupply Projected Growth in Jobs and Workforce 2014 – 2024 Source: Idaho Department of Labor Long Term Industry Projections and Population Forecast 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Thousands 138,000 89,000 49,000
• 37.
  Thank You! Questions? Ethan Mansfield,Regional Economist, SW Idaho • [email protected]