Ten steps of revolution
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This document outlines 10 common patterns observed in major Western revolutions like the English, American, French, and Russian Revolutions: [1] Intellectuals withdraw support for the regime and demand reforms; [2] The state attempts reforms too late; [3] The regime falls due to inability to deal with problems rather than revolutionary opposition; [4] Internal conflicts emerge among revolutionaries after the regime falls; [5] Moderate reformers initially seize power; [6] More radical groups mobilize masses with new organizations; [7] Radicals supplant moderates and make greater changes; [8] Disorder leads to coercive rule to impose order; [9] Military leaders rise to power amid
![2. “Just prior to the fall of the old regime, the state
attempts to meet criticism by undertaking major
reforms.”
Reforms of Louis XVI in France
Stolypin reforms in Russia
Boxer reforms in China
“If the necessity for [reforms] comes in troubled
times, you are too late for harsh measures; and mild
ones will not help you, for they will be considered as
forced from you, and no one will be under any
obligation to you for them.” - Machiavelli](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/tenstepsofrevolution-121204134706-phpapp01/85/Ten-steps-of-revolution-4-320.jpg)
Ten steps of revolution
- 1. From Revolutions: Theoretical, Comparative, and Historical Studies edited by Jack A Goldstone
- 2. “In the 1920’s and 1930’s, a number of historians and sociologists surveyed the most famous revolutions in the West: the English Revolution of 1640, the American Revolution of 1776, the French Revolution of 1789, and the Russian Revolution of 1917. These writers wanted to identify common patterns of events in the major revolutions. They succeeded in finding a remarkable correspondence among the major events in each of these revolutions. Several of their observations on the “natural history” of revolutions have proven valid so often that they appear to be law-like empirical generalizations:”
- 3. 1. “Prior to a revolution, the bulk of the “intellectuals”— journalists, poets, playwrights, essayists, teachers, members of the clergy, lawyers, and trained members of the bureaucracy—cease to support the regime, write condemnations, and demand major reforms.” In France plays of Voltaire and Beaumarchais In England Puritan preachers Russian Nobles demand parliament Why is intellectual support so important to the formation of a revolution?
- 4. 2. “Just prior to the fall of the old regime, the state attempts to meet criticism by undertaking major reforms.” Reforms of Louis XVI in France Stolypin reforms in Russia Boxer reforms in China “If the necessity for [reforms] comes in troubled times, you are too late for harsh measures; and mild ones will not help you, for they will be considered as forced from you, and no one will be under any obligation to you for them.” - Machiavelli
- 5. 3. “The actual fall of the regime begins with an acute political crisis brought on by the government’s inability to deal with some economic, military, or political problem rather than by the action of a revolutionary opposition.” State bankruptcy Weakened command of military forces Revolutionary leaders long powerless, suddenly find themselves able to act.
- 6. 4. “Even where revolutionaries have united solidly against the old regime, following its collapse their internal conflicts eventually cause problems.” Brief period of jubilation followed by turmoil Development of factions: conservatives, moderates, and radicals “The results of such disunity among revolutionaries range from coups to civil war.”
- 7. 5. “The first group to seize the reins of state are moderate reformers.” Bazargan in Iran Moderates rarely hold power for long…
- 8. 6. “While the moderates seek to reconstruct rule on the basis of moderate reform and often employ organizational forms left over from the old regime, alternative, more radical centers of mass mobilization spring up with new forms of organization.” France: Girondin assembly versus Jacobins America: moderate critics of King George versus the Sons of Liberty Why do moderate reforms often fail?
- 9. 7. “The great changes in the organization and ruling ideology of a society that follow successful revolutions occur not when the old regime first falls, but when the radical, alternative, mass- mobilizing organizations succeed in supplanting the moderates.” Because moderates seek continuity they often fail to make sufficient changes. “The success of radicals generally comes from their willingness to take extreme measures, both in dealing with pressing problems and in securing their rule.” However, in examples of “colonial liberation” (i.e. America 1776, Indonesia 1945, Algeria 1962) where the ruling body is external, fairly moderate groups can maintain control.
- 10. 8. “The disorder brought by the revolution and the implementation of radical control usually results in forced imposition of order by coercive rule.” The “Terror” in France The gulag in Russia Police state in Communist China Control is maintained through fear…
- 11. 9. “The struggles between radicals and moderates and between defenders of the revolution and external enemies frequently allow military leaders to move from obscurity to commanding, even absolute, leadership.” America - George Washington England - Oliver Cromwell France - Napoleon China - Mao
- 12. 10. “The radical phase of the revolution eventually gives way to a phase of pragmatism and moderate pursuit of progress within the new status quo.” Fall of Robespierre in France Khrushchev's rejection of Stalin in Russia What factors lead to rejection of radicalism?