World Bank Education Strategy 2020: Phase 2 of External Consultations
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The World Bank held consultations in Phase 1 of developing its Education Strategy 2020, meeting with countries representing Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. Key themes from consultations in low-income countries and middle-income countries were discussed. The document presented population projections and economic growth projections for 2020 to frame education challenges. It outlined strategic directions for the Bank to increase learning for all by strengthening education systems through diagnostic tools, data, learning assessments, research and results-based financing. The Bank will take a differentiated approach depending on countries' economic development and education system capacity.
World Bank Education Strategy 2020: Phase 2 of External Consultations
- 1. World Bank Education Strategy 2020 Phase II Consultations Education Sector Board The World Bank October 2010 1
- 2. External consultation meetings, Phase 1 Region Number of Countries Represented Africa 16 Number of countries that hosted a consultation meeting 4 South Asia 3 2 East Asia and the Pacific 8 4 Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa 11 4 4 2 Eastern Europe and Central Asia Donors 13 2 13 6 TOTAL 69 24 2
- 3. Themes & priorities from consultations in Low-Income Countries
- 4. Themes & priorities from consultations in Middle Countries
- 6. How will the world look in 2020? What will be the demands on education and on education systems? 6
- 7. Population in Low Income Countries 2020 Demographic futures shape education challenges What does demographics tell us about demands on education system? High dependency ratio in LICs: adults have to take care of more children Tax base is smaller in LICs than in MICs Demographic dividends in MICs 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Populations in Thousands Female Male Population Projections in Middle Income Countries 2020 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Populations in Thousands Female Male 7
- 8. The rise of new economic stars Trillions of 1995 international $ 16 Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004-2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates) India Canada Italy Russian Federation 14 China France Japan United Kingdom Brazil Germany Mexico United States China United States 12 10 India France 8 Italy Brazil United Kingdom Russian Federation Mexico Germany 6 Japan Canada 4 2 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Rodriguez, 2008 2015 8
- 9. Poverty has declined … but less so in Africa Percentage of population living with less than PPP$2/day 1990 East Asia & Pacific China Europe and Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa 2005 2015 2020 79.8 84.6 6.9 38.7 36.3 8.9 19.4 16.0 5.0 14.3 12.0 4.1 19.7 16.6 11.1 9.7 19.7 16.9 8.3 6.6 82.7 82.6 76.2 73.9 75.6 73.0 57.0 58.0 59.6 51.0 51.9 55.4 9
- 10. Short-term growth projections World Developing countries 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP -2.2 2.7 3.2 1.2 5.2 5.8 Real GDP (PPP) -1.0 3.5 4.0 1.8 5.5 6.0 • Main drag on global growth comes from high-income countries, with implications for external aid resources • Robust prospects in developing countries for recovery in 2010 10
- 11. What else has changed since 2000? Shifts in global politics, environment and security concerns Greater adoption of Information and Communication Technology More complex aid architecture and Paris & Accra declarations 11
- 12. So … what do these changes mean for education challenges? How to increase learning opportunities in countries where the school-age population is growing rapidly? How to afford post-basic education while still expanding basic education? How to improve the quality of education while still expanding education? How to ensure that youth enter the workforce with productive and employable skills? 12
- 13. So … what do these changes mean for education challenges? 13
- 14. Every child has a right to an education. A country’s wealth and its prospects for development depends on the quality of its people— And education yields huge benefits for individuals, fa milies, comm unities, and society. the skills and creativity of its workers, One additional year the capability of its leaders toCountries with high female govern well and to of schooling increases an manage its resources, and education coped with individual’s wage by extreme weather events better than5-10%. countries with the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy, same income and weather educated and happy children – the next conditions (Blankespoor, “HalfDasgupta, Wheeler 2010) the reduction in child generation. mortality over the past 40 years can be attributed to the better education of women.” (Lancet 9/2010) One additional year in average education of women reduces child deaths by 9.5%. 14
- 15. Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Overall purpose of in education atIncrease the country level learning for all
- 16. rates in primary education 100 90 70 % 80 60 Increase in net enrollment 50 Greater pressure on post-primary education Primary net enrollment rates by income group 2000 2001 … and primary completion 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 Lower middle income High income Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010 50 60 % 70 80 90 100 Primary completion rates by income group 40 secondary and tertiary education 2003 Low income Upper middle income World rates Growing demand for 2002 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 Low income Upper middle income World Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010 2006 2007 2008 Lower middle income High income 16
- 17. … but large disparities remain within countries % of youth ages 15-19 who completed a given grade: Latest available data 1 1 1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poorest quintile Quintile 3 Richest quintile Nigeria 2008 7 8 Quintile 2 Quintile 4 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poorest quintile Quintile 3 Richest quintile Egypt 2008 7 Quintile 2 Quintile 4 8 9 1 2 3 4 Poorest quintile Quintile 3 Richest quintile 5 6 7 8 9 Quintile 2 Quintile 4 Indonesia 2007 17
- 18. Within-country inequalities are as big as — if not bigger — than between-country inequalities 1 Grade 6 completion of 15-19 year olds in the richest and poorest quintiles. 0.8 Proportion 0.6 0.4 0.2 Burundi Rwanda Niger Burkina Faso Guinea-Bissau Chad Angola Mozambique Burkina Faso Senegal Ethiopia Mali Guinea Comoros C.A.R. Liberia Madagascar Cote d'Ivoire Mauritania Mauritania Togo Benin Sierra Leone DR Congo Uganda Gambia Malawi Cameroon Lesotho Tanzania Congo Rep. Gabon Nigeria Zambia Ghana Swaziland Kenya Namibia South Africa Zimbabwe 0 Richest quintile Poorest quintile Average grade 6 completion Source: Filmer, Deon. 2010. “Education Attainment and Enrollment around the World: An International Database.” http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain.
- 19. Learning takes place throughout life ECD Formal schooling Training 100 Primary level 90 Secondary level Tertiary level 80 Out-of-school youth 70 Nutrition, hea lth care, parental training, ECE 60 50 Second chance education and skills training Age-enrollment profile Children & youth in school 40 30 20 % learning goals achieved 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Age in years 14 16 18 20 22 24 19
- 20. Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning Inequalities in SACMEQ 2000, Reading test scores 650 600 550 500 450 400 Richest quintile of students Source: Filmer, based on analysis of SACMEQ 2000 database Poorest quintile of students Average score Seychelles Kenya Tanzania Mauritius Swaziland Botswana Mozambique South Africa Uganda Lesotho Namibia Zambia Malawi 350
- 21. Richest quintile of students Source: Filmer, based on analysis of TIMSS 2007 database Poorest quintile of students Average score Korea, Rep. Of Russian Fed. United States Lithuania Armenia Serbia Malaysia Bulgaria Ukraine Romania Bosnia And Herz. Lebanon Thailand Turkey Mongolia Jordan Tunisia Georgia Iran Indonesia Syrian Arab Rep. Egypt Algeria Morocco Colombia Botswana El Salvador Ghana Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning TIMSS 2007, Grade 8 Mathematics test scores 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250
- 22. Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Strategic directions to achieve results Implementation levers Overall purpose of in education atIncrease the country level learning for all Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses
- 23. What is an education system? An education system is a network of power & accountability relationships for delivering learning results Central & local governments State & nonstate providers of learning Relationships of accountability Communities, p rivate sector, CSOs, h ouseholds 23
- 24. The new strategy differs from previous Bank strategies with respect to its system perspective 2000 Quality Education for All Priorities: Basic education (poor, girls) Early interventions (ECD, school health) Innovative delivery Systemic reform Update 2005 Education for All for the knowledge economy for cohesive societies Priorities: Education in a countrywide perspective Sector-wide approach Results orientation 24
- 25. Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Strategic directions to achieve results Overall purpose of in education atIncrease the country level Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Knowledge Implementation levers learning for all --System diagnostic & benchmarking tools & data --Learning assessments -- Research & Impact evaluations Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses
- 26. What is an education system? An education system is a network of power & accountability relationships for delivering learning results Central & local governments State & nonstate providers of learning Relationships of accountability Communities, p rivate sector, CSOs, h ouseholds Foundation of evidence: reliable data at all levels of the system; know-how about what works, what doesn’t, and why 26
- 27. Diagnostic tools for education system System diagnostic tools to: Analyze alignment of core functions with allocation of resources and authority Measure outputs and outcomes, not only inputs Measure learning outcomes and skills, not only school enrollment Monitor not only public providers but also nonstate providers Benchmark system performance Use to benchmark system 27
- 28. Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Strategic directions to achieve results Overall purpose of in education atIncrease the country level learning for all Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses Knowledge Implementation levers --System diagnostic & benchmarking tools & data --Learning assessments -- Research & Impact evaluations Bank products --System-oriented technical support --Results-based financing
- 29. Results-based financing From financing inputs to financing outputs and results Disbursement against pre-specified implementation progress and performance targets Disbursements could be linked to: Products Changes in institutions Changes in incentive structures Changes in policies 29
- 30. Strategic directions for 2020 Bank’s mission in education Strategic directions to achieve results Overall purpose of in education atIncrease the country level learning for all Improve policy & investment effectiveness in countries by Strengthening countries’ education systems Improve global debate by Building a high-quality knowledge base of data & analyses Knowledge Implementation levers --System diagnostic & benchmarking tools & data --Learning assessments -- Research & Impact evaluations Bank organization Bank products --System-oriented technical support --Results-based financing --Practice groups --Multisectoral approach --Staff learning --Strategic partnerships
- 31. Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system Education system has high capacity Education system has low capacity Low economic development High economic development 31
- 32. Net enrollment rate (%), secondary 100 By income Azerbaijan Seychelles Lithuania St. Vincent and the Grenadines Portugal Bulgaria Malta Chile Jordan 80 Tajikistan Mongolia Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Fiji 60 Samoa Cape Verde Paraguay Hong Kong, China Lebanon Maldives Turkey Mexico Malaysia Belize El Salvador Kenya Gambia,Bangladesh The Lao PDR Cambodia Timor-Leste Guinea Lesotho Sierra Leone Madagascar Togo 40 Marshall Islands Djibouti Niger Per Capita Income, 2000 dollars (*) Fragile States Lower middle income High income (*) Income shown in log scale Low income Upper middle income 32 60000 40000 20000 0 20 Enrollment rate Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system
- 33. Differentiated approach by countries’ economic development & capacity of the education system Are teacher Compensatory Is funding Learning policies linked assessment programs linked to to learning capacity results? results? C Mature B C Established D B A D Emerging A Latent Poorest LICs Richest MICs GDP per capita 33
- 34. Performance indicators 2020 Knowledge Bank Organization Bank Products 1. Availability of diagnostic tools for education subsystems 2. Number of research & impact evaluations on policies and interventions that use a systems approach 3. Development of skills measurement tool beyond measures of basic competencies 4. Development & implementation of capacity development program around the systems approach 5. Development of system-oriented staff practice groups 6. Number of loans/credits that have used resultsbased financing 7. Number of loans/credits that supported countries to carry out learning assessments and/or participate in regional or international assessments 8. Number of countries furthest from the Millennium Development Goals in 2010 that have received financial and technical assistance from the Bank 34
- 35. Impact indicators 2020 1. Knowledge 2. Bank Organization 3. 4. Bank Products 5. Number of countries that have applied system diagnostic tool, collected and used system data Number of countries that have applied skills measurement tool, collected and used skills data Number of loans/credits with satisfactory outcomes Number of loans/credits that have used a multisectoral approach Number of assisted countries that have progressed significantly towards MDGs 35
- 36. MDG 2000 0 0 20 1000 40 Million US$ 3000 60 4000 EFA 5000 MDG 80 EFA 100 Commitments to education from IDA, IBRD and total (constant 2005 million US$) 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year IDA Total education lending 10 EFA IBRD MDG Education as % of total World Bank lending 15 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 5 % Trends in the World Bank’s lending for education, FY1963FY2010 0 Projects Total number of projects with education component 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 2010 36
- 37. 100 Bank support for education 0.8 80 29.0 1.1 0.7 14.8 26.2 1.3 14.3 4.0 5.3 13.7 % 60 13.4 19.9 3.9 13.4 9.5 34.8 40 31.9 38.2 Adult literacy Tertiary Vocational training Secondary Primary Pre-primary General 3.3 42.8 20 3.3 0 1.8 2.1 5.2 28.2 24.4 12.4 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 37
- 38. Focus of current WB education portfolio • About half supports poorest countries through IDA funds • 49% supports basic education • 51% supports post-basic education • 75% includes teacher development • 50% includes learning assessments • More than100 knowledge products on education 38
- 39. Discussion questions 1. Do the strategic priorities reflect the challenges & goals of partner countries? 2. How do we strengthen education systems to improve results? 3. How do we improve the global knowledge base on education systems and learning? Thank you 39
- 40. World Bank’s lending for education (in constant 2005 US$) 5,000 4,500 Total (IDA+IBRD) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 IDA 1,500 IBRD 1,000 500 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 40
- 41. .8 .6 .2 .4 About 50% of Kenyan youth who completed grade 6 cannot read a simple sentence 0 Proportion of 15-19 year olds who can read a simple sentence, by highest grade completed 1 Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Grade Dominican Rep. 2007 Mali 2006 Kenya 2008-09 Nepal 2006 7 90% of Malian youth who completed grade 4 cannot read a simple sentence 41
Editor's Notes
- #4: Multiple issues. Access, governance, funding, ICT are main concerns in LICsThe Bank’s role in developing partnerships and coordination, as well as in knowledge generation-dissemination (sharing best practices) was mentioned by all groups of countries. It was also mentioned the importance of considering local context particular needs.Quality, learning, equity, relevance, teachers and governance are main concerns.
- #5: MICs’ main concerns regard equity, quality, relevance (links-education and labor markets), management and teachers. Role of the Bank: Knowledge generation and dissemination (sharing best-practices, data collection)
- #11: Although global growth is expected to return to positive territory in 2010, the pace of the recovery will be slow and subject to uncertainty. Global output is forecast to contract by 2.2 percent in 2009, but to register positive growth of 2.7 and 3.2 percent in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The main drag on global growth is coming from high-income countries, whose economies are expected to have contracted by 3.2 percent in 2009. Prospects for developing countries are for a relatively robust recovery in 2010, with growth of 5.1 percent in aggregate. Output should strengthen further in 2011 but only modestly rising to 5.1 percent for the developing aggregate as a whole and 4.2 percent for developing countries excluding China, India and Europe and Central Asia.
- #12: A quarter of states eligible for assistance from the International Development Association (IDA) are experiencing conflict, and poverty rates in these countries are far worse than in IDA countries as a whole. Many other IDA countries are considered fragile, and thereby at risk of violent conflict. Nor is conflict confined to poor countries: a number of middle- and high-income nations are affected by severe sub-national and crime-related violence. The MDG Monitor reports that no fragile state tracked by the monitor has achieved a single MDG. Consistently, these countries lag behind non-fragile states on progress towards these goals. For MDGs 1, 5, 6 and 7 (reduce poverty, improve maternal health, combat HIV/AIDS and other diseases and ensure environmental sustainability) only three percent to 17 percent of fragile states are on track to achieve these goals, versus 27percent to 48 percent for non-fragile states. (WDR 2010)Nascent efforts are underway to explore various aspects of the emerging phenomenon of the use of mobile phones in education, but no institution has stepped forward to help catalyze global collaboration and cooperation around research directions and agenda setting in this area. 28% of Africans now have a mobile phone subscription, according to data released by the ITU earlier this year, part of a larger trend that sees two out of every three mobile subscribers around the world living in a developing country.