Requirements for Geospatial Agent Simulation to Strengthen the 'Property-Powered Rail' Open Development Model
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The document explores new applications of payment data within the realms of applied micro and macro geographical economics, focusing on enhancing urban mobility and optimizing property investment linked to transit development. It outlines a 'property-powered rail open development model' aimed at increasing property values near transit stations and discusses flexible payment systems that facilitate economic transactions. The overarching goal is to leverage geospatial data and economic models to drive sustainable development and reduce carbon emissions in the greater National Capital Region of Canada.
Requirements for Geospatial Agent Simulation to Strengthen the 'Property-Powered Rail' Open Development Model
- 1. Two New Uses for Payments Data in Applied Geographical Economics Micro and Macro Examples Joseph Potvin Chair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (OSI) Founding Editor, The FLOW Syllabus President, Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. (Moose Inc.) Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Entreprises Inc. Coordinator, ERA-ART: The Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) Developers Group Le Groupe de développeurs de l'Archétype d'une réserve de la Terre (ART) Doctoral Candidate, Université du Québec (DBA, Project Management) [email protected] Open Source Geospatial Foundation OSGeo-qc | OSGeo-Ottawa | LocationTech 12-13 November 2014 | Gatineau Copyright 2014. Dual licensed CC-BY & GNU-FDL excluding graphics and charts attributed to others.
- 2. A Quick Introduction ● Joseph Potvin ● Doctoral Candidate, U Québec (DBA, Project Management) ● M.Phil., Cambridge UK (Geographical Economics) ● Hon BA, McGill (Economics); ● Chair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (Editor: “The FLOW Syllabus”); ● Private sector work in 20 countries; ● Six years on staff at Treasury Board Secretariat (expenditure analysis, strategic business design & cost control); ● Previously contracted to various parts of The World Bank, and of sections of the International Development Research Centre; ● Economist on drafting team for “Canada's Green Plan” (1990), (new fiscal instruments for ecological economics; extension of national accounts on ecosystem integrity, resource availability.
- 3. A Quick Introduction The Free/Libre/Open Way (FLOW)
- 4. A Quick Introduction APPLIED MICROECONOMICS Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model Dual Purpose: – Return on investment optimization in strategically located commercial and residential property; – Self-financing development of metropolitan transit systems and services based on unconstrained demand for metropolitan-scale mobility, and the market value of naturally constrained supply of property within walking distance of stations.
- 5. A Quick Introduction APPLIED MICROECONOMICS Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. ● A federally-incorporated commercial firm (est. 2011); ● Mission: To organize a consortium to bring about and operate a region-wide private-sector passenger railway service on 400 km of existing railway in the Greater National Capital Region, based on the Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model. Project 125 ● Identify property within walking distance of operational railway lines throughout Canada's Greater National Capital Region with potential for sustainable increases in revenue/asset value of at least 25 per cent as a verifiable result of direct access to integrated metropolitan-scale passenger railway services.
- 6. A Quick Introduction APPLIED MACROECONOMICS “Provide more flexibility for payers and payees to use multiple payment instruments”
- 7. A Quick Introduction APPLIED MACROECONOMICS Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet ● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects; ● A project-centric agent-based computational economics research model to explore the potential for resolving some systemic problems by enabling choice in the six essential attributes of contractual payment. ● Value-in-Exchange Benchmark Choices – Spot Currency Exchange Index (WM Reuters); – World Price Index (W. Coats); – Primary Commodities Index (B. Graham, N. Kaldor, L. Ussher, et.al.); – Global Equities Index (W. Engels, R. Pringle); – Earth Reserve Index (J. Potvin).
- 8. Real Property Value Optimization APPLIED MICROECONOMICS Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model
- 9. Consortium Agreement Supplier (e.g. fuel, Internet, etc.) Rail Access Leases Operating supplies Equipment & operation Fees Fees Advice analysis & assistance Train operators Rail access rights holders Professional service firms Marketing Expenses Transit Engineering analysis Cost-Effectiveness (Operational Expenses) The Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model CC-BY 4.0
- 10. Consortium Agreement Investments and loans Negotiated obligations Being part of the solution Municipal & Regional governments Member fees Private investors & lenders Affinity club members Return on Investment (Public/Private/Community Capital) Achievement of development objectives Loan Guarantees and Grants Aligned decisions The Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model CC-BY 4.0 Aligned Decisions Fed- Prov/State governments
- 11. Consortium Agreement Investments and loans Negotiated obligations Being part of the solution Municipal & Regional governments Member fees Private investors & lenders Affinity club members Return on Investment (Public/Private/Community Capital) Achievement of development objectives Loan Guarantees and Grants Aligned decisions The Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model CC-BY 4.0 Aligned Decisions Fed- Prov/State governments Required from Government: Aligned Decisions, Not Money
- 12. Consortium Agreement Negotiated revenue Business opportunity Negotiated revenue Comfortable safe, practical Negotiated revenue Statistical transportation increase in market value Station owners Enhanced travel experience Travellers Day trippers Frequent travellers Land/Property owners & developers Kiosk/Site provider Partner entities Passenger experience services Service sales Services Ancillary service providers Package transport links Marketable information services Food & beverage i Value-for-Money (Operating Revenue) License & Validation Business opportunity Negotiated revenue Insight Fees Research & planning clients Pay what you want The Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model CC-BY 4.0
- 13. Consortium Agreement Negotiated revenue Business opportunity Negotiated revenue Comfortable safe, practical Negotiated revenue Statistical transportation increase in market value Station owners Enhanced travel experience Travellers Day trippers Frequent travellers Land/Property owners & developers Kiosk/Site provider Partner entities Passenger experience services Service sales Services Ancillary service providers Package transport links Marketable information services Food & beverage i Value-for-Money (Operating Revenue) License & Validation Business opportunity Negotiated revenue Insight Fees Research & planning clients Pay what you want The Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model CC-BY 4.0 25% + increase in market value
- 14. Source: Robert Dorion, P.Eng., MBA President, Knowledge Management Research, Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group Limited
- 15. Placement of Stations APPLIED MICROECONOMICS ● Demand for mobility relatively high; ● Supply of property “within walking distance” of a limited number of railway stations relatively low; ● Data show value effect between –10% and +35%; ● Both commercial and residential properties; ● Stations can be located where income & asset values would likely increase by at least +25%; − Based on market analysis; − Assuming normal business risk; − Contingent on all usual governance rules, processes.
- 16. Placement of Stations APPLIED MICROECONOMICS ● Value linkage greatest when railway development and property development are fully integrated; ● Price competition begins with announcement that a station will be developed, in anticipation of service; ● Owners earn more, even if they never use the train; ● Percentage of value increase allocated to a “train-stopping fee” in the consortium agreement; ● The consortium of property owners run their own railway business: THEY determine the optimal fee; ● Requires optimization modeling.
- 17. REQ: Geospatial Multi-Agent Simulation FREE/LIBRE/OPEN SOURCE TRANSPORTATION SIMULATION AND VALIDATION SOFTWARE ● Multi-Agent Transport Simulation http://www.matsim.org/
- 18. REQ: Geospatial Multi-Agent Simulation FREE/LIBRE/OPEN SOURCE TRANSPORTATION SIMULATION AND VALIDATION SOFTWARE ● Multi-Agent Transport Simulation http://www.matsim.org/ ● New Requirement: Add extensions for property value effects and optimization analysis based on empirical data from the regional market and from comparison markets.
- 19. REQ: Geospatial Mobility Data FREE/LIBRE/OPEN DATA + STRUCTURED MANAGEMENT ● Whole-region anonymous travel data from mobile devices – Live data streaming via the WAZE platform http://www.waze.com/livemap/ – Historical data on main transportation arteries purchased from participating telecom companies (?) – Disclosure Control Resource Centre, Statistics Canada http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/12-539-x/2009001/control-controle- eng.htm – TravelR for ad hoc travel demand modeling https://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/travelr/ ● Polarsys for Long-Term Life-Cycle Management http://polarsys.org/
- 20. http://openrailproperty.org Lieu de l'événement : Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO), Pavillon C, Salle C0072 283, boul Alexandre-Taché, Gatineau, Québec
- 21. GREENING TRANSIT
- 22. Real Trains, Real Tracks, Real Property APPLIED MICROECONOMICS
- 23. The Greater National Capital Region 400 KM OF EXISTING RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE Montebello, QC La Pêche, QC (Wakefield) Bristol, QC Arnprior ON Smiths Falls, ON Alexandria, ON
- 24. The Greater National Capital Region 400 KM OF EXISTING RAILWAY + OTTAWA LRT (STAGES 1&2) Montebello, QC La Pêche, QC (Wakefield) Bristol, QC Arnprior ON Smiths Falls, ON Alexandria, ON
- 25. The Greater National Capital Region Montebello, QC WHERE DO YOU LIVE? WORK? PLAY? La Pêche, QC (Wakefield) Freeman Lac Leamy Gréber Papineauville Plaisance Quyon Fitzroy Bayview CarleTtroenmblay Arnprior ON Casselman Terry Fox Smiths Falls, ON UQO/Taché Lorrain Navan March Rd. Urban Ottawa-Gatineau Rural & Semi-Rural Chelsea Masson Thurso Farm Point Vars Limoges Kinburn Blair Maxville Alexandria, ON Bells Corners Barrhaven Richmond Bristol, QC Tunney's Greenboro Merivale
- 26. PAYMENTS DATA From Geographical Microeconomics To Geographical Macroeconomics
- 27. Tweaking the Global Payments System APPLIED MACROECONOMICS Est. October 2014 “Provide more flexibility for payers and payees to us e mu ltiple payment instrume nts”
- 28. Tweaking the Global Payments System APPLIED MACROECONOMICS “Discuss, research, prototype, create working systems ... that allow people on the Web to send each other money as easily as they exchange instant messages and email today”
- 29. Choice in All Attributes of Payment APPLIED MACROECONOMICS Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet “work in progress” ● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects; ● Algorithmic pricing with choice of value benchmark ● Earth Reserve benchmark ● Free/libre/open software: ERA-ART – Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) – l'Archétype d'une réserve de la terre (ART)
- 30. We're accustomed to perceiving country boundaries this way
- 31. The geography of each country is really defined by its “Exclusive Economic Zone” The geospatial boundaries of countries extend 200 nautical miles beyond their shorelines.
- 32. The geography of each country is really defined by its “Exclusive Economic Zone” Source: http://td-architects.eu/projects/show/exclusive-economic-zone/
- 33. We're accustomed to perceiving national currencies this way Source: http://i.imgur.com/LIRDh.jpg
- 34. The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships. Example: Italy 2010 Imports Darker shade means greater proportion of Intermediary's currency in trade 43.4% Intermediary's currency 36.6% Importer's currency (€) 20.0% Exporter's currency Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade" https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
- 35. The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships. Example: Italy 2010 Exports Darker shade means greater proportion of Intermediary's currency in trade 19.6% Intermediary's currency 7.7% Importer's currency 72.2% Exporter's currency (€) Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade" https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
- 36. The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships. Let's use the geospatial density of currency as a meaningful weighting factor for... Darker shade means greater proportion of Intermediary's currency in trade Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade" https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
- 37. Attribution for Frequency & Severity of Surface Temperature Anomalies Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/
- 38. Attribution for Positive & Negative Trends in Major Pollutants Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/
- 39. ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Change with Global Economic Activity, By Currency The Earth Reserve System uses currency composition of trade as a weighting factor to proportionately attribute biophysical changes in global ecosystem integrity, in a particular way, to the economic activity paid in each currency. Example: Near Infrared Reflectivity. Changes to remote sensing data on surface thermal reflectivity in Band 4 (Near Infrared 0.77-0.90 μm) reveal changes to biomass content.
- 40. ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Change with Global Economic Activity, By Currency Challenge: How might we represent the distributional density of multiple currencies at the same time? Darker shade means greater proportion of Intermediary's currency in trade $ € ¥ Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade" https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
- 41. Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Farbkreis_mit_CMYK-Werten.svg C.M.Y.K 0.30.80.0
- 42. ERA-ART software will use BIS or IMF data on global payments (currency of invoicing) density to maintain EEZ-bounded frequency distributions as relative weights 0-100. Also, visually illustrate up to three currencies at a time: Assign C,M,Y K ≡ all others 0 30 0.30.80.0 80 0
- 43. ERA-ART Hypothetical 4-Currency Model C, M, Y and K≡All Others) (Note: This map's colours were assigned randomly.)
- 44. ERA-ART Hypothetical 4-Currency Model C, M, Y and K≡All Others) (Note: This map's colours were assigned randomly.)
- 45. € ¥ $ ¤
- 46. ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Change with Global Economic Activity, By Currency Exclusive Economic Zones Scientifically Verifiable Data On Ecosystems & Resources Currency Weighting System for the Earth Reserve Value Benchmark Auditable Data on the Currency of Payments
- 47. Choice in All Attributes of Payment APPLIED MACROECONOMICS Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet “work in progress” ● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects; ● Relative resource/ecosystem degradation in a given currency's region of use, compared with the base year, will cause prices in that currency to become more expensive against prices in other currencies. ● In general, jobs and export-oriented investment will be attracted towards currency zones where ecosystem integrity and resource availability are relatively improved from a base year.
- 48. CONNECTING Geographical Macroeconomics & Geographical Microeconomics
- 49. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO Adapted from land-use supplied by the National Capital Commission Adapté d'une carte fournis par la Commission
- 50. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO One Double-Deck Railway Coach: ● 75 cars reduced from the roads (100 seated people) ● 60 km return semi-rural terminus to downtown ● 120 grams of carbon emission per km car traveller (× 1/1,000,000 because 1 metric tonne is a million grams) ● 60 grams of carbon emission per km per diesel train traveller (× 1/1,000,000)
- 51. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO 75×60×(120-60)× 1/1,000,000 = 0.27 tonnes ● More than a quarter tonne of net carbon emission reduction per coach, per trip between each semi-rural terminus and downtown Ottawa/Gatineau.
- 52. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO 18 return trips per day (service from 6 am to 11 pm) ● 0.27×18 = 5 tonnes carbon emission reduction. ...that's per coach, per day!
- 53. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO 3 coaches minimum per train 18 trains per day (service from 6 am to 11 pm) ● 5×3 = 15 tonnes carbon reduction. ...that's per line, per day!
- 54. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO 6 lines radiate from downtown Ottawa/Gatineau ● 15×6 = 90 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per day for a 30 km radius from downtown. That's more than the weight capacity of three 20' shipping containers.
- 55. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO 250 working days per year, 25 km radius 90×250 = 22,500 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per year. ... not counting weekends & holidays.
- 56. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO 250 working days per year, 25 km radius 90×250 = 22,500 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per year. The Oceanex Connaigra The largest Canadian container ship can carry up to 19,500 tonnes, by comparison.
- 57. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO Suppose these trains are running half empty... 250 working days per year, 30 km radius 22,500×(1/2) = 11,250 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per year. ... still, not counting weekends & holidays.
- 58. Carbon Emission Reduction CONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO Suppose these trains are running full capacity... 250 working days per year, 25 km radius 22,500×(1.5) = 33,750 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per year. $20 per tonne carbon offset price gives: $675,000
- 59. Two New Uses for Payments Data in Applied Geographical Economics Micro and Macro Examples Joseph Potvin Chair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (OSI) Founding Editor, The FLOW Syllabus President, Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. (Moose Inc.) Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Entreprises Inc. Coordinator, ERA-ART: The Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) Developers Group Le Groupe de développeurs de l'Archétype d'une réserve de la Terre (ART) Doctoral Candidate, Université du Québec (DBA, Project Management) [email protected] Open Source Geospatial Foundation OSGeo-qc | OSGeo-Ottawa | LocationTech 12-13 November 2014 | Gatineau Copyright 2014. Dual licensed CC-BY & GNU-FDL excluding graphics and charts attributed to others.