New base energy news issue 836 dated 24 april 2016

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NewBase Energy News 24 April 2016 - Issue No. 836 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
After being grounded for 9 months Solar Impulse takes off from
Hawaii to resume flight around the world
The National - Emmanuel Samoglou
HAWAII // Solar Impulse 2 has resumed its attempt to circumnavigate the world using only the
power of the Sun. Just after 8.15pm UAE time on Thursday evening, pilot Bertrand Picard lifted
the Masdar-sponsored plane from the runway at Oahu’s Kalaeloa Airport in Hawaii.
“#Si2 has just taken off to [San Francisco] with @BertrandPiccard at the commands. The
adventure is back on!" tweeted the mission’s organisers. “Have a great flight. Enjoy it. Don’t
forget to come down," shouted Andre Borschberg, the co-pilot for the mission from the side of the
runway as he watched the aircraft lift off.
Piccard is expected to spend roughly three days flying
the single seat, lightweight aircraft to California, landing
at Moffett Airfield in Mountain View, south-east of San
Francisco. For the past week, Solar Impulse crew had
waited for an ideal time for the plane to proceed to the
next leg of its journey from Hawaii to the US mainland.

Windy conditions in Hawaii resulted in limited opportunities for take-off, a crew official said.
Forecasts predicted light winds, but just before the scheduled take-off at 4pm in Hawaii, the winds
picked up and the aircraft had to be returned to the hangar.
The winds soon died down and the launch went ahead. Mission director Raymond Clerc said the
4,000 kilometre trip would take an estimated 62 hours.
“Plus, minus three to four hours, so it could be a very short one, as little as 58 hours," he said.
“We are very happy to have this window so early in the season. We were ready to fly from the
15th of April."
Solar Impulse 2 was grounded for nine months in Hawaii after suffering critical heat-related
damage to its batteries during the previous leg of its round-the-world flight, in which Borschberg
completed a historic five-day, 118 hour, 7,200km journey from Nagoya, Japan.
Since February, crew had run 13 test flights, including maintenance flights to show the plane’s
new cooling system was functioning before the resumption of its Pacific Ocean crossing.
“(Picard) has been preparing himself for a long time, for about the last five to six weeks in Hawaii,"
said Mr Clerc. “A lot of training with this aircraft, as well as other aircraft to practice his pilot skills."
The mission began its journey in
Abu Dhabi last March and is
aiming to complete its solar-
powered circumnavigation of the
Earth this summer. Emirati
Hasan Al Redaini was in Hawaii
for take-off, and is working with
the Solar Impulse team as the
plane continues its journey.
“We are in mission mode and it’s
been a long wait for the take off.
We are looking forward to continuing our journey and spreading the message on the viability of
renewable energy which Masdar and Abu Dhabi endorse through partnering with Solar Impulse."

UAE: Adnoc plans to extend ‘mega tender’ scheme
The National - Anthony McAuley
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) plans to extend its “mega tender" scheme, after the
company’s pilot tender halved the cost of a major steel purchase for its operating companies.
The new approach to procurement is part of Adnoc’s broader push to streamline operations to
bear down on costs in a world where oil prices are expected to recover only slowly from the crash
of the past 18 months.
It is also part of a wider reform process in the region as governments push for a more rapid
transformation away from a public-sector mentality to a
more entrepreneurial approach, including using the
massive buying power of incumbent state hydrocarbon
companies to foster associated local industry, including
steel and chemicals.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, for example, is following
Adnoc’s example in combining and streamlining
procurement for its operating companies and is in the
process of its own first steel “mega tender", according to
industry sources.
Sultan Al Jaber, who was named Adnoc’s chief executive in February and last month to Abu
Dhabi’s Supreme Petroleum Council, has made it clear that he plans to push through reforms and
modernise an often lumbering and opaque oil-sector bureaucracy.
The new procurement process began in 2013 and the first tender was awarded last August. The
details did not begin to surface until last month. The French steel products maker Vallourec, a
public company listed in Paris, announced it had won a tender to supply 100,000 tonnes of oil
country tubular goods (OCTG) to Adnoc’s three main operating companies: Adco, which oversees
onshore oilfield operations, and Adma-Opco and Zadco, the main offshore operating consortiums.
Adnoc has in the past rarely shared such information about its operations but the new hierarchy is
looking for a greater degree of transparency to help make its reforms stick. Vallourec’s contract
was, in fact, part of a much larger tender in which Adnoc contracted to buy 590,000 tonnes of
OCTG from a number of producers.
The steel tender started out with a market valuation at slightly above US$2 billion but ended up
costing half that amount, according to an Adnoc executive, who didn’t want to be named. The
largest share of the contract went to a unit of the Japanese engineering company Sumitomo, with
the next-largest portion going to Italy-based Tenaris, followed by Vallourec’s 100,000 tonnes.

There were smaller portions, which included specialty as well as commodity products, awarded to
five other companies: Tianjin Pipe and Hengyang of China, Russia’s TMK, JFE in Japan and
Voestalpine of Austria.
The collapse in the oil price combined with the deep recession in the global steel industry played
the greatest part in achieving the cost savings, but the tender approach also helped shave off
millions of dollars, the Adnoc executive said. Also, the centralised buying, handled by Adma-Opco
for this purchase, was
recognised internally as a
much more efficient way to
make large procurements.
“This company puts out huge
tenders every year and this
[steel contract] wasn’t that big
in the scheme of things, but it
sets a tone," said the Adnoc
executive.
Adnoc is one of the biggest
spenders in the region,
particularly as it pursues its
$25bn programme to increase
onshore and offshore
production to 3.5 million bpd by
about 2018 from 2.8 million bpd
in 2014.
There are also plans to expand the downstream sector in oil refining and petrochemicals. After
the success of the OCTG tender, Adnoc is looking to move again this year to capture further
savings before oil and steel prices begin to turn up.
“We know they are willing in these market conditions to lock in long-term pricing for the
commodities they buy – including, but not limited to, tubulars," said Betrand de Rotalier, the
regional head for Vallourec.
“We anticipate a new, similar tender to come in the second half of this year or early next year."
Although Adnoc has not said so explicitly, it has relaxed the timetable for some of its largest
projects, including the expansion of oil production as well as building a planned new refinery in
Fujairah, partly to be able to achieve lower project costs.
“They are currently finalising their analysis in aligning production and drilling activity with capital
and operating expenditures," said Renwar Berzinji, the Middle East regional sales director at
Tenaris.
“In view of the current market conditions, we appreciate what Adnoc is trying to do – to align the
big picture with their operational requirements and optimise resources and improve operational
efficiencies," Mr Berzinji said.
The related goal is to tie Adnoc’s reforms to broader industrial policy by rewarding companies that
meet other goals, such as local employment, with supply contracts. That is in its infancy but Abu
Dhabi is watching how a similar scheme introduced by Aramco at the end of last year proceeds.

Egypt: UAE Masdar completes clean energy projects in Egypt
The national - LeAnne Graves
Abu Dhabi’s Masdar has completed four clean energy projects as well as thousands of solar home
systems in remote areas across Egypt.
More than 25,000 homes will be powered by 30 megawatts of utility-scale projects, including a 14
megawatts project that houses four solar photovoltaic (PV) diesel hybrid plants in the Red Sea
areas of Marsa Alam, Shalateen, Abu Ramad and Halayeb. Masdar said the project was
specifically designed to help supply reliable electricity to support the country’s tourism sector.
The clean energy company yesterday also announced it had added another three solar PV
hybrids, totalling 6MW, in Al Farafra, Abu Minqar and Darb Al Arbaeen – all part of Egypt’s least
populated governorate of Al Wadi Al Jadeed.
Masdar has also installed 7,000 solar systems in homes, mosques, clinics and schools in remote
areas across Egypt that do not have access to the national utility grid. The off-grid applications
have two solar panels and two batteries that can provide storage capacity for two days.
“Each project was customised to the needs of the local community," said Khaled Ballaith, the
director of the Masdar special projects unit. “Our priority was ensuring the right solution was
deployed for the unique needs of the 70 villages and over 140 communities in seven governorates
touched by these projects."
All of these new projects are in addition to the 10MW solar PV plant that Masdar inaugurated in
Siwa in March last year, making up about 30 per cent of the city’s grid capacity.
Egypt has been facing a major power deficit, which initially began peaking two years ago. The
country has been pursuing more renewable energy ventures, looking to have sources such as
wind, hydropower and solar energy account for 20 per cent of its power generation.
“Energy is truly the backbone of development, and I am proud that Masdar can support Egypt’s
strategic development aims as well as the critical global goal of delivering sustainable energy for
all," said Mohamed Al Ramahi, the chief executive of Masdar.

Bahrain says dependence on oil revenues slashed in 2015
Arabian Business
Bahrain's non-oil growth reached 3.9 percent in 2015, according to the latest update by the
Economic Development Board (EDB), while overall GDP growth for the year was 2.9 percent.
Despite the broader regional economic challenges, growth remained positive across all the non-oil
sectors, with construction (6.4 percent) and hotels and restaurants (7.3 percent) leading the way,
the EDB said in a statement.
It said that the private sector remains a vital factor in the kingdom's continuing economic growth
profile, contributing nearly 3 percent to the overall growth figure for the year.
The oil sector share of real GDP fell to only 19.7 percent, demonstrating the success of Bahrain's
economic diversification efforts, the statement added.
Financial services (16 percent) and manufacturing (15 percent) continued to account for sizeable
elements of the economy with government services (13 percent), construction (7 percent),
transport and communications (7 percent), social and personal services (6 percent) and real
estate and business activities (6 percent) all prominent.
The report said the total value of the non-oil goods exported stood at approximately $17.5 billion in
2015.
The EDB said significant infrastructure investments have continued to progress, with the total
value of projects tendered reaching $3.8 billion by the end of March 2016.
Khalid Al Rumaihi, chief executive of the EDB, said: "Despite the continued global challenges, a
range of different indicators continue to demonstrate the resilience and potential of Bahrain's
economy.
"The non-oil sector accounts for more than eighty per cent of the economy and the private sector
contribution to growth continues to expand, showing the success of our long-term diversification
efforts. The positive outlook is underpinned by Bahrain's supportive business environment for
investors, including a favourable tax regime, competitive operating costs and an experienced and
educated workforce."

Tunisia: Independent Resources submits application for extension of
Ksar Hadada permit…. Source: Independent Resources
Further to the announcement of 7 April 2016, AIM-listedIndependent Resources has provided
the following update regarding the Ksar Hadada hydrocarbon exploration permit,
onshoreTunisia.
Entreprise Tunisienne d'Activités Pétrolières ('ETAP'), Tunisia's national oil company, has at
the request of Independent Resources Ksar Hadada ('IRKH'), a wholly owned subsidiary of the
Company and sole contractor for the Permit, submitted an application for a one year extension to
the permitting authority Direction Générale de l'Energie ('DGE')).
The application is expected to be heard by the Comité Consultatif des Hydrocarbures
('Consultative Commission on Hydrocarbons' or 'CCH') later this quarter and if successful the
extension will run from the current expiry date until 7 August 2017.
The proposed minimum work obligation for the Permit will comprise the acquisition, processing
and interpretation of up to 300 km2 of 3D seismic, and the drilling of two new exploratory wells
replacing the obligation to drill one new exploratory well and re-enter a well drilled previously on
the Permit.
The location of the additional exploratory well will be chosen collaboratively with ETAP and IRKH
is keen to target the greater exploration potential identified in the Acacus play through the
technical work carried out by IRKH as operator and confirmed by the Scotforth RSDD-H survey
carried out in 2015.

Gabon: Shell eyes $700 million exit from Gabon
Reuters via Yahoo! Finance
Royal Dutch Shell is working on selling out of its onshore assets in Gabon,
according to two sources familiar with the matter, seeking to refocus its African
presence.
Bids are due in June for the fields, which one source estimated could be worth
around $700 million (488.55 million pound). However the second person said that
price indications were currently below Shell's expectations and that no sale may
occur.
'Shell continuously evaluates
opportunities for our global
portfolio in line with our business
strategy,' a company spokesman
said on Thursday.
The oil major has been operating in
the west African country for more
than 50 years. Its holdings include
the Rabi Kounga and Gamba
fields.
Shell has announced plans to sell at
least $30 billion worth of assets
over the next three years, in order
to finance its $52 billion BG
acquisition and focus its portfolio
on deep water oil production and
the rapidly-expanding liquefied
natural gas market.
The sharp drop in oil prices over
the past two years and continued
uncertainty over the price recovery
have nevertheless crimped the
market for oil production assets
and limited acquisitions in the sector. It has also crimped the economies of many oil-
dependent African countries.
OPEC sources have said Gabon wants to rejoin it after more than two decades, just
as the oil exporters' group is taking the first steps in years to prop up prices.
Gabon has been seeking to diversify its economy away from oil, focusing on
attracting tourists and investors in sectors such as mining.
Shell has indicated that most sale processes for 'upstream' oil and gas production
assets would likely take place in 2017 and 2018.

Botswana: Tlou Energy expands gas production testing
at its Lesedi CBM Project.. Source: Tlou Energy
Tlou Acting Managing Director Gabaake Gabaake said, 'Excellent progress is being made in the
field. The decision to expand the testing to include three wells rather than the initial one well was
taken following the results observed while flowing gas from Selemo 1 only and the excellent
communication being observed between all the Selemo wells.
The initial plan was to flow sustained gas from Selemo 1 and then proceed to build flows from
Selemo 2 and 4. This method was chosen by our production consultants based on knowledge
gained from other reservoirs and also to reduce any potential risk of damaging the reservoir with
a more aggressive strategy.
The production data has since indicated however, that it is possible to bring on all three wells
concurrently without significant risk of damaging the formation or jeopardising the chances of
flowing gas at economic levels from Selemo.
Although still at an early stage, the data gathered to date is very promising and is some of the
best we have seen since we commenced flow testing. As a result we remain excited and
confident of delivering a sustained gas flow shortly.
I have had discussions with relevant Government parties in relation to our application for a gas-
to-power pilot project in Botswana. We are awaiting feedback and remain extremely confident of
a positive response in the near term. Our team are working very hard and we remain on target to
deliver on our goals. I look forward to providing further updates in the near term.'

Uganda Will Route Oil Pipeline Via Tanzania Instead of Kenya
Bloomberg - Fred Ojambo
Uganda decided to route a multibillion-dollar crude-export pipeline through Tanzania, forcing
neighboring Kenya to develop a separate link to transport its own oil.
A pipeline will run from the western region of Hoima to the Tanzanian port of Tanga, Uganda
Foreign Affairs Minister Sam Kutesa said on Saturday after a summit of regional leaders in the
nation’s capital, Kampala. Kenya will build a link between the towns of Lokichar and Lamu, he
said.
Tanzania has been competing with
neighboring Kenya for the cross-
border pipeline, which will tap
Ugandan oil deposits being developed
by France’s Total SA, China National
Offshore Oil Corp. and London-based
Tullow Oil Plc. Total said in December
it would prefer to transport crude via
Tanzania, while Tullow has favored
the Kenyan route.
“While we have always believed that a
joint Uganda-Kenya export pipeline
was the most cost-effective option, we
are clear that both Uganda and
Kenya’s oil resources can be developed separately,” George Cazenove, a spokesman for Tullow,
said on Saturday in an e-mail. The company will work with Uganda, Kenya and its partners to
advance projects in both countries, he said.
A feasibility study for the Kenyan option by Nagoya, Japan-based Toyota Tsusho Corp. estimated
the cost of the project at as much as $5 billion. Routing the pipeline through Tanzania would cost
about $4 billion, according to state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp.
Tanzania will invest in Uganda’s planned 60,000 barrels-of-oil-a-day refinery, Kutesa said, without
providing further details. Uganda is negotiating with Russia’s RT Global Resources over
construction of the facility, according to Uganda’s Energy Ministry.
Kenya wanted the pipeline to link up with the Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport
corridor, a proposed $26 billion project known as Lapsset that will include a port and a railway. It
would be routed through Kenya’s arid northern Lokichar basin, which has been prone to attacks
by bandits and cattle rustlers, to the coastal town of Lamu. The area is close to Somalia, where
Islamist militants have waged an insurgency against the government for the past decade as well
as carrying out raids inside Kenya.
Reserves in Kenya, which plans to start exporting crude as early as 2020, don’t currently support
government plans to build its own pipeline, according to Jacques Nel, senior economist at NKC
African Economists in Paarl, South Africa.
“Kenya will not get as much from the oil, will get less per barrel if it builds its own pipeline,” Nel
said before the agreement between Uganda and Tanzania was announced.

Libya's NOC says eastern govt tried to export 650,000 barrels
Reuters + NewBase
Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) said the country's eastern government attempted to export
650,000 barrels of oil this week, but that workers at the Marsa el-Hariga terminal had refused to
load the shipment.
"This had the potential to be a very ugly incident and I am pleased that it has been resolved
peacefully without injury to anybody or loss of revenue or damage to the integrity of NOC or the
country," Tripoli-based Chairman Mustafa Sanalla said in a statement released late on Friday.
Libya's eastern government is one of two rival administrations set up in 2014. Its efforts to sell oil
through a parallel oil company have so far been unsuccessful. The NOC has said it will work with
a U.N.-backed unity
government that arrived in
Tripoli last month to
coordinate future oil sales.
There was no immediate
comment from the eastern
government or the parallel
oil company that it formed
in Benghazi, Libya's
second city. Sanalla said
he had informed the unity
government's prime
minister, Fayez Seraj,
about the attempted sale, and that Seraj "took the necessary steps to stop the vessel from
loading".
The NOC statement said the marketing manager of the parallel company had instructed eastern
oil firm Agoco to load the shipment on April 21-23 for DSA Consultancy FZC, a company
registered in the United Arab Emirates.
It said the shipment was intended for the Distya Ameya, an Indian-flagged vessel that remained at
Marsa el-Hariga. "Agoco employees and port officials understood this was a political attempt to
divide the country, and I am very proud that they resisted the pressure to load this vessel," Sanalla
said.
"We have been in communication with the master of the ship," he added. "We have informed him
he is breaching U.N. resolutions and we have asked him to leave Libyan waters immediately. He
has turned off his vessel's tracking system."
The U.N. Security Council last month said the unity government had the "primary responsibility"
for preventing illicit oil sales, urging it to communicate any such attempts to the U.N. committee
overseeing Libya-related sanctions.
The resolution also restated a call for member states to cease contact with any "parallel
institutions". Since the uprising that toppled autocrat Muammar Gaddafi five years ago, Libya's oil
production has been slashed by rivalry between armed factions, attacks by Islamic State militants
and labour disputes. Output has fallen to less than a quarter of the 1.6 million barrels per day
produced before the uprising.

NewBase 24 April 2016 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
US oil closes up 1.3 pct, ending week with more than 8 pct gain
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices jumped on Friday and posted a third week of gains as market sentiment turned more
upbeat amid signs a global supply glut may be easing.
International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 59 cents to $45.12 per barrel, off a session peak
of $45.90. U.S. West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude settled 55 cents higher, or 1.3 percent, at
$43.73, after rising as high as $44.45.
Brent gained about 5 percent this week and WTI nearly 9 percent. Crude is up more than two-
thirds since its 2016 lows between January and February.
Strong gasoline consumption in the United States, increasing signs of declining production around
the world, and oilfield outages have underpinned a return to investment in the sector, traders said.
"The current rally is driven by a market sentiment that is becoming more and more convinced that
the worst is over and the global oil market rebalancing process is already in play," said Dominick
Chirichella, senior partner at the Energy Management Institute in New York.
The number of rigs drilling for oil in U.S. fields declined for a fifth straight week, falling by 8 to a
total of 382, Baker Hughes reported on Friday. At this point last year, upstream energy companies
were operating 703 oil rigs.
Oil price special
coverage

Traders also pointed to strong crude imports to China in March as providing support to prices.
Still, some analysts warned that the oil market was still far from balancing supply and demand.
"While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside ... we believe that it is not yet
driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.
Goldman said it was "premature to embrace these green shoots", maintaining its view that a
sustainable balancing of the market, driven by declines in U.S. shale oil production, would take
place in the third quarter of 2016.
But the Wall Street bank changed its view on energy to "neutral" from "underweight", citing a
reduced likelihood of extreme downside.
Another supportive factor has been producers taking advantage of higher prices by locking in
production.
French investment bank Natixis said they expect producers in the U.S. to take every opportunity to
aggressively hedge as soon as oil prices recover for short periods of time.
Falling output, especially in the United States, where many producers have reeled from an up to
70 percent oil price rout since 2014, has also helped to lift the market.
Natixis said it expected U.S. oil production to drop by at least 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day
(bpd) this year, compared with 2015, and by another 500,000 bpd in 2017.
Despite the recent rally, oil markets remain oversupplied as between 1 and 2 million barrels of
crude are being pumped out of the ground every day in excess of demand, leaving storage tanks
around the world filled to the brim with unsold fuel.

Baker Hughes: US Oil Drillers Cut Rigs For 5th Week
by Reuters
U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a fifth week in a row to the lowest level since November 2009, oil
services company Baker Hughes Inc. said Friday, as energy firms continue to slash spending
despite a bigger than 60 percent spike in futures since hitting a near 13-year low in February.
Drillers cut eight oil rigs in the week to April 22, bringing the total rig count down to 343 Baker
Hughes said in its closely followed report.
The number of U.S. oil rigs currently operating compares with the 703 rigs operating in the same
week a year ago. In 2015, drillers cut on average 18 oil rigs per week for a total of 963 for the
year, the biggest annual decline since at least 1988 amid the biggest rout in crude prices in a
generation.
Before this week, drillers cut on average 12 oil rigs per week for a total of 185 so far this year.
Energy firms have sharply reduced oil and gas drilling since the collapse in crude markets began
in mid-2014. U.S. crude futures fell from over $107 a barrel in June 2014 to a near 13-year low
around $26 in February.
Schlumberger NV said in earnings release on Friday it will remain cautious in adding capacity
even after energy firms show signs of recovery since it believes the industry will continue cutting
costs through the coming quarter.
The world's No. 1 oilfield services provider said its first quarter revenue decrease was one of the
steepest quarterly declines for the company since this downturn started driven in part by a drop in
activity, persistent pricing pressure, project delays, job cancellations and activity disruptions.
U.S. crude futures this week were heading for a third week of gains, trading around $43 a barrel,
as market sentiment turned more upbeat despite the persistent oversupply. U.S. crude futures
were fetching around $45 a barrel for the balance of 2016 and about $47 for calendar 2017.
Analysts at Cowen & Co, a U.S. financial services firm, expect U.S. oil and natural gas land rigs to
bottom between 375 and 400 sometime in the second quarter before increasing in the fourth
quarter. The total land rig count was 401, according to Baker Hughes. With the decline in oil rigs
this week and the loss of one natural gas rig <RIG-GS-USA-BHI>, total U.S. rigs fell for a 17th
week in a row, down nine to 431, the lowest since at least 1940, according to Baker Hughes data
going back that far.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 24 April 2016
Oversupplied oil market to rebalance by next year, says IEA
The Gaurdian - Julia Kollewe
International Energy Agency expects production outside Opec cartel to fall sharply this year
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects the oversupplied oil market to rebalance by
next year, as non-Opec production records its biggest decline in a generation.
An oil glut has prompted a slump in crude prices from a peak of $115 (£80) a barrel in June 2014,
but the IEA executive director, Fatih Birol, said on Thursday that production outside the Opec
would fall sharply this year, by almost 700,000 barrels a day. He expects oil markets, and prices,
to rebalance at the turn of this year, or by 2017 at the latest.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, increased to $45.92 a barrel, up 0.2% on the day, in early
London trading. US crude recovered to $44.30, up 0.4% on the day.
Birol said low oil prices had led to investment cuts of 40% over the past two years, especially in
the US, Canada, Latin America and Russia.
After meeting Japan’s prime minister, Shinzō Abe, Birol told reporters in Tokyo: “This year, we are
expecting the biggest decline in non-Opec oil supply in the last 25 years, almost 700,000 barrels
per day. At the same time, global demand growth is in a hectic pace, led by India, China and other
emerging countries.”

He added: “When we look at all the fundamentals – demand, supply and stocks – I have all the
reasons to believe that in the absence of a major economic downturn we are going to see balance
in the markets latest by 2017.”
Birol argued that conditions remained difficult for shale oil producers, despite a recovery in Brent
oil prices to above $45 a barrel. “I think $45 is a bit of a relief for all the oil producers around the
world, but this is still far lower than to make the entire shale oil production profitable for the United
States.”
However, Iran is determined to claw back market share after western sanctions were lifted in
January, and reiterated plans to reach an output of 4m barrels a day. Saudi Arabia and Russia are
also looking to pump more oil. Just days after aglobal deal to freeze production levels collapsed,
Russia’s energy minister said the country might raise oil output to historic highs of more than 12m
barrels a day.
A lot now hinges on US oil producers. At the moment, global producers are pumping between 1m
and 2m more barrels every day than is needed.
Analysts at the French bank BNP Paribas said: “Any hope of market rebalancing from the current
surplus in supply [lies] on the predicted decline in US oil production. The US accounts for the bulk
of non-Opec’s 2016 oil supply contraction of 700,000 barrels per day forecast. If the decline in the
US oil supply proves insufficient to tighten balances, then ... the oil price will remain low.”
Meanwhile, analysts at Bernstein Research said: “Optimism has returned to energy markets, at
least for now.” Bernstein believes US shale oil would have a “clear future” if oil prices rose to $50-
$60.

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations
and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 24 April 2016 K. Al Awadi

New base energy news issue 836 dated 24 april 2016

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New base energy news issue 836 dated 24 april 2016