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2017 Saratoga County State of the Economy

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The document summarizes an economic development presentation for Saratoga County. It finds that Saratoga County benefits from major investment and a diverse economy in tourism, agriculture, and technology. However, recent successes have not been fully capitalized on. The mission of the Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership is to secure sustainable jobs and investment by attracting new businesses and helping existing businesses grow. Data presented shows Saratoga County has low unemployment, high incomes and labor participation compared to neighboring counties. Housing permits and values are also higher in Saratoga County. However, businesses report increasing sales but not adding many new employees. Attracting new talent is cited as a top concern.

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Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership Economic Development for Saratoga County Presentation to the Town of Malta Economic Development Committee February 15, 2017
2017 Saratoga County State of the Economy
“More than most regions of the country, Saratoga County is the beneficiary of major capital investment, strong and vibrant communities, and a diverse economy that provides opportunities in tourism, agriculture, and technology. It was also felt, however, that recent successes have not been capitalized on. There was a growing sense that Saratoga County was not positioned for the next wave of opportunity. “
Mission of the Partnership The Mission of the Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership shall be to secure sustainable jobs and capital investment by attracting new business to the County and retaining existing businesses by assisting them to grow.
Economic Development “Circle of Life” Sustainable Jobs Disposable Income Demand for Retail/Services Generates Sales Tax and other Revenue Creates superior “Quality of Place” Attracts new business, generates new local business
2017 Saratoga County State of the Economy
Unemployment www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed
Annual Unemployment 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Saratoga County Warren County Albany- Schenectady County Rensselaer County United States NY State Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County Saratoga vs. Neighboring Counties Saratoga County Warren County Albany- Schenectady County Rensselaer County United States NY State Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County Source: 2016 Community Survey
Source: 2016 Community Survey & data.bls.gov 4.4% 4.6%4.5% 4.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Saratoga County Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA February 2017 vs. January 2017 Feb-17 Jan-17 Unemployment January 2017 vs. February 2017
4.4% 5.1% 7.2% 8.0% 7.7% 8.1% 7.4% 6.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.3% 4.8% 6.9% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8% 7.0% 5.8% 4.9% 4.3% 4.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 February 2007 - 2017 Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Saratoga County Source: 2016 Community Survey & data.bls.gov Unemployment
Labor Force Participation The percentage of the population that is either employed or unemployed (that is, either working or actively seeking work).
Source: 2016 Community Survey Labor Force Participation 2016 60% 60% 61% 63% 64% 64% 65% 65% 66% 68% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fulton County Montgomery County Washington County Warren County NY State United States Schenectady County Albany=- Schenectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County Saratoga vs. Neighboring Counties Fulton County Montgomery County Washington County Warren County NY State United States Schenectady County Albany=- Schenectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County
Source: 2016 Community Survey 118.9 115.6 117.8 118.5 116.0 117.6 116.4 439.5 437.0 445.0 450.0 453.0 460.2 464.7 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Data in Thousands Saratoga County Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Labor Force Participation
Income
Median Household Income Source: 2016 Community Survey $43,764 $46,969 $51,143 $53,889 $56,798 $58,114 $59,269 $59,501 $60,709 $71,496 $0.00 $10,000.00 $20,000.00 $30,000.00 $40,000.00 $50,000.00 $60,000.00 $70,000.00 $80,000.00 Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County United States Warren County Schenectady County New York State Albany- Schectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County Saratoga vs. Neighboring Counties Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County United States Warren County Schenectady County New York State Albany- Schectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County
Source: deptofnumbers.com &fred.stlouisfed.org $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Saratoga County vs. Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Saratoga County Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Median Household Income
Housing Permits The total number of permits issued for single family homes and multi-family homes.
Housing Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Source: CDRPC 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Permits Saratoga County Capital Region
Housing Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Source: CDRPC 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Permits Saratoga County Capital Region
Single Family Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Share of Single Family Permits Single Family Saratoga Single Family Capital Region Source: CDRPC
Multi-Family Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Share of Multi-Family Permits Saratoga County Multi-Family Permits Capital Region Multi-Family Permits Source: CDRPC
Value Generated The dollar value of homes construction permitted.
Housing Permits Saratoga County 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County Number of Housing Permits Single Famiy Multi-Family Units Source: CDRPC
Share of Value Saratoga County Source: CDRPC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County Single vs. Multi-Family Single Family Multi-Family Units
Value of Units Single Family Home Permits Source: CDRPC $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Saratoga County Capital Region
Value of Units Multi-Family Home Permits Source: CDRPC $0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Saratoga County Capital Region
Average Value Per Unit Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Source: CDRPC $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Single- Family Saratoga County Multi-Family Saratoga County Single- Family Capital Region Multi-Family Capital Region
Local Economic Pulse
• We recently surveyed local business owners, managers. • We asked about a variety of measures including: • Sales • Adding additional employees • Business costs • Concerns about our local economy Local Economic Pulse
Sales 69% 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Sales Have Increased in Past Year Yes No Thinking about the past year, have your sales increased?
Sales 40% 24% 13% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Sales Increase in Past Year 1-3% 4-5% 6-10% 11% or more How much have your sales increased in the past year?
Sales 77% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Sales Expectations for Coming Year Expect Sales to Increase Expect Sales to Stay the Same Over the coming year, do you expect your sales to…?
Additional Employees 54% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Additional Employees Added in Past Year Yes No Over the past year, have you added workers?
Additional Employees 43% 32% 4% 21% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Additional Employees Added in Past Year 1-2 3-5 6-10 11 or more employees How many workers have you added in the past year?
Additional Employees 45% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Hiring Additional Employees in Coming Year Yes No Over the coming year, will you be adding additional workers?
Business Costs 6% 94% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Business Costs Decreased in Past Year Yes No Have your business costs decreased over the past year?
Business Costs 4% 29% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Business Cost Expectations for Coming Year Expect Costs to Decrease Expect Costs to Stay the Same Over the coming year, do you expect your business costs to…?
Local Economy – Biggest Concern Thinking about Saratoga County’s local economy, what is your biggest overall concern? 33% 16% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 2% 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Biggest Concerns About Saratoga County Economy Attracting Talent/Workers Regulatory Issues Cost of Living Affordable Housing Utility Costs Local Taxes Surplus of Living Wage Jobs Preservation of Oen Space Other
Industry 24% 17% 14% 13% 10% 4% 3% 1% 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Saratoga County Industry in Saratoga County Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Government Education & Health Services Construction/ Natural Resources & Mining Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Information Other Tell us what industry you work in…
Saratoga County Index Results • Employment is solid. Low unemployment and high participation rate. Future talent attraction is a concern. • Median Household Income is higher than average and higher than surrounding areas by significant amounts. Is this sustainable? Will it deter new interest and projects? • Housing has rebounded and values have increased or held. Multi-family housing...invest or not? • Sales increasing but employees are not. Doing more with less. • Overall: Saratoga County is prospering but there are challenges on the horizon.
Economic Development Challenges 1. Can we continue to attract companies to the area based upon our labor supply, low unemployment rate and participation rate? Who will the next GLOBALFOUNDRIES hire when we attract them to the region. 2. We have high median household income? Good or Bad? Good for those that benefit from that income and the demand they place for goods and services. But what about those just starting out? 3. Existing business needs and wants to grow. They have the same talent issues as new companies. 4. Housing is steady but can we overcome our distaste for Multi- family?
Jason Bram • Research Officer with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York • Co-Directs the New York Fed’s monthly Empire State and Business Leaders Survey • Writes and publishes on the regional and local economy, the New York Tech Sector and written on consumer confidence as an economic indicator. • Graduate of Columbia University (B.A.-Economics) + New York’s Stern School of Business. Research Officer Regional Analysis Function Federal Reserve Bank of New York 33 Liberty Street New York, NY 10045 Phone (212) 720-5651 jason.bram@ny.frb.o www.newyorkfed.org
Overview of the US & Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer Presented to Saratoga Partnership May 9, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. Total PCE Core PCE FOMC Objective Inflation: PCE Deflator 7 7 45
12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Core Goods CPI Core Services CPI CPI Inflation: Core Goods and Core Services Total Core CPI 7 7 46 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
GDP 2000Q1 to 2007Q4: 2.5% Growth Rate Trillions of 2009 US$ Trillions of 2009 US$ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Congressional Budget Office via Haver Analytics 47 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. Time Period Potential GDP Growth 2000 - 2005 2.9% 2005 – 2010 1.7% 2010 – 2015 1.4% 2015 – 2020 1.7%
Housing Starts Thousands, 3 MMA Thousands, 3 MMA Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Total Multifamily (Left Axis) Single Family (Right Axis) 7 48 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Federal State and Local Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment 7 49 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Unemployment Rates Rate Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics U-4 (Unemployed + discouraged) Unemployed U-5 (Unemployed + marginally attached)U-6 (U5 + part time economic reasons) 7 7 50 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Growth of Employment and Aggregate Hours 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. Payroll Employment Aggregate Hours 51
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth of average hourly earnings: all employees 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2% 7 52 April 2017: 2.5 %
30 40 50 60 70 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 12 Month % Change Index Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Board, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. ISM Manufacturing Index (Right Axis) Industrial Production: Manufacturing (Left Axis) Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing Index 7 53
Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to March 2017 AL Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. AK FL HI PR AZ AR CA CO CT NJ DE MD GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME VT NH MA RIMI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY 54
Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of March 2017 AL Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. AK FL HI PR AZ AR CA CO CT NJ DE MD GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME VT NH MA RIMI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY 55
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index 60 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business Leaders Survey Current Economic Conditions Apr 56
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2007 2008 2009 FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead Diffusion Index 60 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Business Leaders Survey Future Economic Conditions Apr 57
88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New York New York City United States New Jersey Puerto Rico Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 58
88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USA Upstate Utica- Rome Albany Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar Glens Falls Private-Sector Employment by Metro Area 59
88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USA Upstate Ithaca Binghamton Elmira Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar Private-Sector Employment by Metro Area 60
88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 United States Upstate Rochester Buffalo Syracuse Private-Sector Employment by Metro Area Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 61
88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Orange-Rockland -Westchester New York City Long Island USA Private-Sector Employment Downstate Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 62
Private-Sector Employment Index, Four-Quarter Moving Average 80 90 100 110 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index (2007=100) Saratoga County United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)., Moody’s economy.com, FRBNY staff calculations 63
Average Private-Sector Wage & Salary Income Index, Four-Quarter Moving Average 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index (2007=100) Saratoga County United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)., Moody’s economy.com, FRBNY staff calculations 64
Aggregate Private-Sector Wage & Salary Income Index, Four-Quarter Moving Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)., Moody’s economy.com, FRBNY staff calculations 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index (2007=100) Saratoga County United States Shading indicates NBER recession 65
60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Schenectady County United States Albany County Saratoga County Rensselaer County CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 66 Home Prices Across the Capital District
60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New York State United States NYC Metro Downstate NY Upstate NY Home Prices Across NY State CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 67
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 United States Albany Rochester Upstate NY Buffalo Home Prices for Selected Metro Areas CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 130 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 68
60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dutchess-Putnam USA NYC Metro Kingston Metro Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 69
Questions?
How can we help you? Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership 2911 Rt. 9 Malta, NY 12020 saratogapartnership.org 518-871-1887

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2017 Saratoga County State of the Economy

  • 1. Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership Economic Development for Saratoga County Presentation to the Town of Malta Economic Development Committee February 15, 2017
  • 3. “More than most regions of the country, Saratoga County is the beneficiary of major capital investment, strong and vibrant communities, and a diverse economy that provides opportunities in tourism, agriculture, and technology. It was also felt, however, that recent successes have not been capitalized on. There was a growing sense that Saratoga County was not positioned for the next wave of opportunity. “
  • 4. Mission of the Partnership The Mission of the Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership shall be to secure sustainable jobs and capital investment by attracting new business to the County and retaining existing businesses by assisting them to grow.
  • 5. Economic Development “Circle of Life” Sustainable Jobs Disposable Income Demand for Retail/Services Generates Sales Tax and other Revenue Creates superior “Quality of Place” Attracts new business, generates new local business
  • 8. Annual Unemployment 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Saratoga County Warren County Albany- Schenectady County Rensselaer County United States NY State Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County Saratoga vs. Neighboring Counties Saratoga County Warren County Albany- Schenectady County Rensselaer County United States NY State Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County Source: 2016 Community Survey
  • 9. Source: 2016 Community Survey & data.bls.gov 4.4% 4.6%4.5% 4.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Saratoga County Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA February 2017 vs. January 2017 Feb-17 Jan-17 Unemployment January 2017 vs. February 2017
  • 10. 4.4% 5.1% 7.2% 8.0% 7.7% 8.1% 7.4% 6.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.3% 4.8% 6.9% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8% 7.0% 5.8% 4.9% 4.3% 4.4% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 February 2007 - 2017 Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Saratoga County Source: 2016 Community Survey & data.bls.gov Unemployment
  • 11. Labor Force Participation The percentage of the population that is either employed or unemployed (that is, either working or actively seeking work).
  • 12. Source: 2016 Community Survey Labor Force Participation 2016 60% 60% 61% 63% 64% 64% 65% 65% 66% 68% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fulton County Montgomery County Washington County Warren County NY State United States Schenectady County Albany=- Schenectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County Saratoga vs. Neighboring Counties Fulton County Montgomery County Washington County Warren County NY State United States Schenectady County Albany=- Schenectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County
  • 13. Source: 2016 Community Survey 118.9 115.6 117.8 118.5 116.0 117.6 116.4 439.5 437.0 445.0 450.0 453.0 460.2 464.7 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Data in Thousands Saratoga County Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Labor Force Participation
  • 15. Median Household Income Source: 2016 Community Survey $43,764 $46,969 $51,143 $53,889 $56,798 $58,114 $59,269 $59,501 $60,709 $71,496 $0.00 $10,000.00 $20,000.00 $30,000.00 $40,000.00 $50,000.00 $60,000.00 $70,000.00 $80,000.00 Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County United States Warren County Schenectady County New York State Albany- Schectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County Saratoga vs. Neighboring Counties Montgomery County Fulton County Washington County United States Warren County Schenectady County New York State Albany- Schectady CSA Rensselaer County Saratoga County
  • 16. Source: deptofnumbers.com &fred.stlouisfed.org $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Saratoga County vs. Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Saratoga County Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA Median Household Income
  • 17. Housing Permits The total number of permits issued for single family homes and multi-family homes.
  • 18. Housing Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Source: CDRPC 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Permits Saratoga County Capital Region
  • 19. Housing Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Source: CDRPC 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Permits Saratoga County Capital Region
  • 20. Single Family Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Share of Single Family Permits Single Family Saratoga Single Family Capital Region Source: CDRPC
  • 21. Multi-Family Permits Saratoga County vs. Capital Region 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Share of Multi-Family Permits Saratoga County Multi-Family Permits Capital Region Multi-Family Permits Source: CDRPC
  • 22. Value Generated The dollar value of homes construction permitted.
  • 23. Housing Permits Saratoga County 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County Number of Housing Permits Single Famiy Multi-Family Units Source: CDRPC
  • 24. Share of Value Saratoga County Source: CDRPC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County Single vs. Multi-Family Single Family Multi-Family Units
  • 25. Value of Units Single Family Home Permits Source: CDRPC $0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 $300,000,000 $400,000,000 $500,000,000 $600,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Saratoga County Capital Region
  • 26. Value of Units Multi-Family Home Permits Source: CDRPC $0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Saratoga County Capital Region
  • 27. Average Value Per Unit Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Source: CDRPC $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Saratoga County vs. Capital Region Single- Family Saratoga County Multi-Family Saratoga County Single- Family Capital Region Multi-Family Capital Region
  • 29. • We recently surveyed local business owners, managers. • We asked about a variety of measures including: • Sales • Adding additional employees • Business costs • Concerns about our local economy Local Economic Pulse
  • 30. Sales 69% 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Sales Have Increased in Past Year Yes No Thinking about the past year, have your sales increased?
  • 31. Sales 40% 24% 13% 24% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Sales Increase in Past Year 1-3% 4-5% 6-10% 11% or more How much have your sales increased in the past year?
  • 32. Sales 77% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Sales Expectations for Coming Year Expect Sales to Increase Expect Sales to Stay the Same Over the coming year, do you expect your sales to…?
  • 33. Additional Employees 54% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Additional Employees Added in Past Year Yes No Over the past year, have you added workers?
  • 34. Additional Employees 43% 32% 4% 21% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Additional Employees Added in Past Year 1-2 3-5 6-10 11 or more employees How many workers have you added in the past year?
  • 35. Additional Employees 45% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Hiring Additional Employees in Coming Year Yes No Over the coming year, will you be adding additional workers?
  • 36. Business Costs 6% 94% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Saratoga County Whether Business Costs Decreased in Past Year Yes No Have your business costs decreased over the past year?
  • 37. Business Costs 4% 29% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Business Cost Expectations for Coming Year Expect Costs to Decrease Expect Costs to Stay the Same Over the coming year, do you expect your business costs to…?
  • 38. Local Economy – Biggest Concern Thinking about Saratoga County’s local economy, what is your biggest overall concern? 33% 16% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 2% 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Saratoga County Biggest Concerns About Saratoga County Economy Attracting Talent/Workers Regulatory Issues Cost of Living Affordable Housing Utility Costs Local Taxes Surplus of Living Wage Jobs Preservation of Oen Space Other
  • 39. Industry 24% 17% 14% 13% 10% 4% 3% 1% 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Saratoga County Industry in Saratoga County Professional & Business Services Financial Activities Government Education & Health Services Construction/ Natural Resources & Mining Leisure & Hospitality Manufacturing Information Other Tell us what industry you work in…
  • 40. Saratoga County Index Results • Employment is solid. Low unemployment and high participation rate. Future talent attraction is a concern. • Median Household Income is higher than average and higher than surrounding areas by significant amounts. Is this sustainable? Will it deter new interest and projects? • Housing has rebounded and values have increased or held. Multi-family housing...invest or not? • Sales increasing but employees are not. Doing more with less. • Overall: Saratoga County is prospering but there are challenges on the horizon.
  • 41. Economic Development Challenges 1. Can we continue to attract companies to the area based upon our labor supply, low unemployment rate and participation rate? Who will the next GLOBALFOUNDRIES hire when we attract them to the region. 2. We have high median household income? Good or Bad? Good for those that benefit from that income and the demand they place for goods and services. But what about those just starting out? 3. Existing business needs and wants to grow. They have the same talent issues as new companies. 4. Housing is steady but can we overcome our distaste for Multi- family?
  • 42. Jason Bram • Research Officer with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York • Co-Directs the New York Fed’s monthly Empire State and Business Leaders Survey • Writes and publishes on the regional and local economy, the New York Tech Sector and written on consumer confidence as an economic indicator. • Graduate of Columbia University (B.A.-Economics) + New York’s Stern School of Business. Research Officer Regional Analysis Function Federal Reserve Bank of New York 33 Liberty Street New York, NY 10045 Phone (212) 720-5651 [email protected] www.newyorkfed.org
  • 43. Overview of the US & Regional Economy Jason Bram, Research Officer Presented to Saratoga Partnership May 9, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
  • 44. 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. Total PCE Core PCE FOMC Objective Inflation: PCE Deflator 7 7 45
  • 45. 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics Core Goods CPI Core Services CPI CPI Inflation: Core Goods and Core Services Total Core CPI 7 7 46 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
  • 46. GDP 2000Q1 to 2007Q4: 2.5% Growth Rate Trillions of 2009 US$ Trillions of 2009 US$ Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Congressional Budget Office via Haver Analytics 47 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. Time Period Potential GDP Growth 2000 - 2005 2.9% 2005 – 2010 1.7% 2010 – 2015 1.4% 2015 – 2020 1.7%
  • 47. Housing Starts Thousands, 3 MMA Thousands, 3 MMA Source: Census Bureau via Haver Analytics Total Multifamily (Left Axis) Single Family (Right Axis) 7 48 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
  • 48. -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 4 Quarter % Change 4 Quarter % Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics Federal State and Local Real Government Consumption and Gross Investment 7 49 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
  • 49. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Unemployment Rates Rate Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics U-4 (Unemployed + discouraged) Unemployed U-5 (Unemployed + marginally attached)U-6 (U5 + part time economic reasons) 7 7 50 Note: Shading shows NBER recessions.
  • 50. -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Growth of Employment and Aggregate Hours 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. Payroll Employment Aggregate Hours 51
  • 51. 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth of average hourly earnings: all employees 12 Month % Change 12 Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2% 7 52 April 2017: 2.5 %
  • 52. 30 40 50 60 70 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 12 Month % Change Index Source: Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Board, via Haver Analytics Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. ISM Manufacturing Index (Right Axis) Industrial Production: Manufacturing (Left Axis) Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing Index 7 53
  • 53. Private-Sector Job Trends Percent Change From Previous Peak to March 2017 AL Down Flat Up to 3% Up 3% to 7% Up More Than 7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. AK FL HI PR AZ AR CA CO CT NJ DE MD GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME VT NH MA RIMI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY 54
  • 54. Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of March 2017 AL Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. AK FL HI PR AZ AR CA CO CT NJ DE MD GA ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME VT NH MA RIMI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WA WV WI WY 55
  • 55. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions Diffusion Index 60 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business Leaders Survey Current Economic Conditions Apr 56
  • 56. -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2007 2008 2009 FRBNY Business Surveys, Conditions Six Months Ahead Diffusion Index 60 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Business Leaders Survey Future Economic Conditions Apr 57
  • 57. 88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New York New York City United States New Jersey Puerto Rico Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 58
  • 58. 88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USA Upstate Utica- Rome Albany Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar Glens Falls Private-Sector Employment by Metro Area 59
  • 59. 88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USA Upstate Ithaca Binghamton Elmira Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar Private-Sector Employment by Metro Area 60
  • 60. 88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 United States Upstate Rochester Buffalo Syracuse Private-Sector Employment by Metro Area Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 61
  • 61. 88 92 96 100 104 108 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Orange-Rockland -Westchester New York City Long Island USA Private-Sector Employment Downstate Seasonally Adjusted Index Index (Dec2007=100) 120 116 112 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. Mar 62
  • 62. Private-Sector Employment Index, Four-Quarter Moving Average 80 90 100 110 120 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index (2007=100) Saratoga County United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)., Moody’s economy.com, FRBNY staff calculations 63
  • 63. Average Private-Sector Wage & Salary Income Index, Four-Quarter Moving Average 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index (2007=100) Saratoga County United States Shading indicates NBER recession Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)., Moody’s economy.com, FRBNY staff calculations 64
  • 64. Aggregate Private-Sector Wage & Salary Income Index, Four-Quarter Moving Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW)., Moody’s economy.com, FRBNY staff calculations 60 80 100 120 140 160 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index (2007=100) Saratoga County United States Shading indicates NBER recession 65
  • 65. 60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Schenectady County United States Albany County Saratoga County Rensselaer County CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 66 Home Prices Across the Capital District
  • 66. 60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 New York State United States NYC Metro Downstate NY Upstate NY Home Prices Across NY State CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 67
  • 67. 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 United States Albany Rochester Upstate NY Buffalo Home Prices for Selected Metro Areas CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 130 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 68
  • 68. 60 70 80 90 100 110 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dutchess-Putnam USA NYC Metro Kingston Metro Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted Index (Mar2006=100) 120 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). Mar 69
  • 70. How can we help you? Saratoga County Prosperity Partnership 2911 Rt. 9 Malta, NY 12020 saratogapartnership.org 518-871-1887